美联储卡什卡利：我们很可能高估了经济放缓的程度。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below the critical 4% level for the first time in 2025, closing at 3.976% [1] - The decline in the 10-year yield is seen as a signal of economic slowdown and increased risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of recent economic data and geopolitical tensions [1] - The Federal Reserve's intention to continue lowering interest rates to support the economy has reinforced expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, marking a significant psychological threshold that has not been breached since April 4, when it briefly fell to 3.992% [1] - The recent economic data, including a contraction in service sector activity in New York and surrounding areas, has heightened concerns about economic slowdown [1] - The rise in long-term Treasury investments is attributed to increased risk from bank loan defaults and renewed tensions between the U.S. and China [1] Group 2 - Energy prices have decreased, contributing to a downward trend in inflation, with average gasoline prices in the U.S. falling approximately 4% over the past month [2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on October 24, which could influence the trajectory of Treasury yields [2] - The consensus among market participants is that the decline in Treasury yields is fundamentally linked to growing concerns over economic slowdown and expectations for policy easing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts but emphasizes the need for caution due to conflicting economic signals [2][3] Economic Signals - The U.S. labor market appears to be losing jobs, indicating a potential broader economic slowdown [3] - Despite concerns in the labor market, GDP growth remains strong, and inflation is still significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved a 25 basis point rate cut in September, marking the first cut since December 2024, with potential for two more cuts by year-end [3] - Waller expresses satisfaction with the current pace of rate cuts but does not advocate for more aggressive actions [3][4] Leadership Considerations - Waller is reportedly one of the final candidates to succeed Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May 2026 [3] - Discussions with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin focused on policy rather than political considerations, highlighting Waller's serious economic approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ibec report indicates that the Irish economy is expected to "slow down" due to ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US, particularly concerning the €54 billion trade in sectors like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft, which are under Section 232 investigations [1] Economic Growth Projections - Domestic demand is projected to grow by 3% this year, decreasing to 2.6% by 2026 [1] - Consumer spending is expected to increase by 2.8% this year, with a decline to 2.4% by 2026 [1] - Investment is forecasted to grow by 3.4% this year and 2.2% next year [1] - GDP growth is anticipated at 6% for this year, tapering to 4.1% by 2026 [1] Employment Outlook - Employment growth is expected to slow down to below 2% next year [1]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 52 in August to 50 in September, indicating stagnation in service sector expansion, below the market expectation of 51.7[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 0.4%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, above the market expectation of 49, indicating a slowdown in contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector rose from 46.5 to 47.2, showing a slower contraction[2] - The price index for services increased from 69.2 to 69.4, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The number of initial unemployment claims decreased at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, suggesting stability in the job market[1] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed, with an estimated GDP impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown[1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting may reference September data, with a 96.2% market expectation for no rate cut in October due to improved employment data and high inflation[1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts in October but may consider a rate cut in December as economic slowdown continues[1]

Group 1: Market Conditions - The current financial market exhibits multiple bubble signs reminiscent of the pre-2007 financial crisis, with a resurgence of large-scale leveraged buyouts and a significant increase in risk debt [1][2] - Major Wall Street banks are preparing to arrange over $20 billion in merger debt financing, echoing the pre-crisis environment [2] - The risk premium for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds has reached its lowest level in 27 years, indicating overly optimistic risk pricing in the market [5] Group 2: Consumer Debt and Defaults - Rising auto loan default rates signal increasing financial pressure on consumers, with some subprime auto lenders filing for bankruptcy [3] - Although overall consumer borrowing levels are lower than in 2007, specific areas of default are raising concerns, similar to the early stages of the subprime mortgage crisis [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Early signs of economic slowdown are emerging, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 and consumer confidence dropping to a four-month low [7] - These deteriorating economic indicators provide a realistic basis for concerns in the bond market, suggesting potential volatility ahead as the bubble-like financial market adjusts to cyclical slowdowns [7] Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Market Differences - Current market conditions differ significantly from 2007, with stricter bank regulations and larger capital buffers in place [5] - Leveraged buyout firms are utilizing more equity in their transactions, and the impact of private credit on the financial market remains uncertain [5]

InnovestX认为，关键在于财政问题：由于经济疲软，政府收入的增长速度未能 跟上支出增长的步伐。政府的固定支出规模庞大，且难以削减，这导致了财政 赤字的不断扩大。 （原标题：新政权面临的经济挑战） 据曼谷邮报9月28日报道,在人们对新政府及其经济团队充满期待的情况下，泰 国经济似乎正在展现出复苏的迹象，但同时也面临着新的挑战。最终的结果将 取决于这些新挑战能否得到妥善应对。 InnovestX认为，泰国经济在第四季度将迎来更为严重的放缓趋势，这种放缓可 能会持续到2026年上半年。在未来四个季度内，经济增长率可能低于1%，从 而导致今年全年GDP增长率仅为1.8%，明年则为1.4%。 在这种脆弱的环境中，由阿努廷领导的泰政府面临着两大亟需应对的重大风 险。 风险一：泰铢持续升值对出口行业构成挑战：今年泰铢大幅升值，兑美元汇率 一度达到31.70。本周泰铢汇率略有回落，为32.24，但全年来看仍上涨了 6.4%。 风险二：惠誉评级下调后可能引发的财政危机，更严重的风险在于泰国的财政 状况。周三，惠誉评级机构将泰国的主权信用评级从"稳定"下调至"负面"，就 此指出了泰国面临的财政问题。 历史数据显示，50%的 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales decreased by 0.9%, with positive pricing of 1% offset by a volume decline of 1.9% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $171 million, up 3% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19.1%, an increase of 110 basis points year-on-year [4][11] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $1.26, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [11] - Revenue was down 2.8% year-on-year, with currency having a positive impact of 1% [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HHC (Health and Hygiene) organic revenue decreased by 3.1%, with EBITDA up 2% year-on-year and EBITDA margin increasing to 16.9% [5] - Engineering Adhesives (EA) organic revenue increased by 2.2%, with EBITDA up 14% and EBITDA margin expanding to 23.3% [6][7] - Building Adhesive Solutions (BAS) organic sales decreased by 1%, with EBITDA increasing by 3% to $41 million and EBITDA margin expanding to 17.7% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, organic revenue was up 1% year-on-year, driven by EA's high single-digit growth [8] - EIMEA (Europe, India, Middle East, and Africa) organic revenue declined by 2% year-on-year, with EA flat and HHC and BAS down modestly [8] - Asia-Pacific organic revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, primarily due to significant volume decline in solar [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its portfolio, driving efficiencies, and repositioning for growth and margin expansion [3][16] - Management remains cautious due to a globally subdued economic backdrop and expects volume growth to remain elusive [3][9] - The company is actively managing pricing and raw material costs while emphasizing operational efficiency [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a widespread slowing economic environment, with customer demand appearing uneven and less predictable [9] - The company anticipates a slow growth environment with continued economic volatility and high interest rates [9] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term EBITDA margin and growth targets despite current challenges [16] Other Important Information - The company updated its financial guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting net revenue to be down 2 to 3% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $615 to $625 million [12][14] - Full-year adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $4.10 and $4.25, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7% to 11% [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you provide more detail behind the reduction in cash flow guidance? - Management explained that the increase in working capital, specifically inventory, is driving the decrease in cash flow expectations due to preparations for footprint consolidation [19] Question: What helped EA volumes and margins in the quarter? - Management noted a return to double-digit organic growth in electronics and strong performance in the U.S. EA business, driven by new customer wins and strong execution [24] Question: How would you explain the HHC decline in volumes versus EA? - Management indicated that EA is performing stronger than the market, while HHC volumes reflect a decline in consumer demand across major regions [27] Question: What are the pricing trends for your segments in the fourth quarter? - Management highlighted a supportive pricing environment across all three GBUs, with many companies raising prices in response to inflation and tariffs [49]

Core Insights - The tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated approximately $350 billion in annualized revenue for the U.S. government, becoming a significant source of federal revenue [1][2][3] Revenue Generation - Tariffs now account for about 18% of annual household income tax payments, indicating their substantial impact on the U.S. economy and trade policy [2] - The current annualized tariff collection is among the largest in recent history, highlighting the importance of this revenue stream [3] Economic Implications - The tariffs are seen as a potential tool to help manage the national debt, which stands at $37 trillion, as noted by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget [4] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that tariffs could reduce the deficit by up to $4 trillion over the next decade, although economists believe this will primarily slow debt growth rather than eliminate it [5] Market Stability - Initially viewed as a concern, tariffs have become crucial for U.S. financial stability, helping to shield the country from global bond market turmoil [6] - The tariffs have created a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve, as they may contribute to economic slowdown and rising unemployment [7] International Impact - While tariffs have benefited U.S. revenue, countries like China are withdrawing from the U.S. market, as evidenced by a net purchase of only $2 billion in U.S. securities by foreign investors in July 2025 [8] Business Concerns - Over 100 leading business figures, including Fortune 500 CEOs, have expressed concerns regarding the economic effects of Trump's policies, acknowledging both short-term benefits and long-term risks [9] Market Performance - Amid the tariffs, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust have seen year-to-date increases of 14.06% and 18.03%, respectively [10]

Production - Industrial production growth in August was 5.2%, below the expected 5.8% and down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The decline in industrial production was primarily due to a decrease in export growth, which turned negative at -0.4% for the first time this year, down 1.2 percentage points from last month[3] - The service production index growth fell to 5.6%, indicating a slowdown in the service sector[3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in August was -7.1%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, with a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop, with a monthly growth rate of -19.5% and a cumulative decline of -12.9%[4] - Infrastructure investment also decreased, with broad infrastructure cumulative growth at 5.4% and narrow infrastructure at 2.0%, both down from the previous month[4] Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling in consumer spending[5] - Dining consumption showed slight recovery with a growth rate of 2.1%, while overall goods retail growth was 3.6%, down 0.3 percentage points[5] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged to 16.8%, doubling from the previous month, while other discretionary categories showed mixed results[6] Outlook - The economic slowdown in August reflects ongoing pressures in production, investment, and consumption, necessitating targeted policy interventions[7] - Future policy efforts are expected to focus on boosting investment and service consumption, with financial tools likely to support infrastructure investment[7] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with continued pressure from declining exports and a cooling real estate market[7]