短期期货交易商获利回吐导致金价温和下跌。但是，由于全球债券市场变得不稳定，黄金避险的基本基 调看涨。 21日举行的美国20年期国债拍卖未受到投资者的欢迎，令市场紧张不安。21日美国债券拍卖后，全球债 券市场也震动不已。 新华财经纽约5月22日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价22 日下跌0.56%，收于每盎司3295.10美元。 金价花五年时间站上了2000美元，但是仅用几周时间就站上了3000美元。市场分析人士认为，金价本次 上涨背后有许多不同的驱动力。除了传统的实际收益率，还加上了经济衰退风险、关税、贸易战、以及 市场对地缘政治紧张局势的担忧。 尽管过去十二个月增长了40%，市场分析人士认为金价还有增长空间。 与此同时，渣打银行预计金价未来7个月将下跌约10%。 技术层面，黄金期货多头近期已具有整体的技术优势。 当天7月交割的白银期货价格下跌1.39%，收于每盎司33.18美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国国债市场也不喜欢特朗普政府的新税收和支出法案。国会预算办公室表示，该法案将使2026年至 2034年间美国预算赤字增加3.8万亿美元。 美国劳工部22日公布的数 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economic Research and Trade Policy - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Insights and Arguments - The US has reduced tariffs on China to approximately 40%, down from 145%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point decrease in the effective US tariff rate, which now stands at around 14% compared to 3.5% at the beginning of the year [2][12][20] - This tariff reduction has led to an upward revision of the US GDP projections for 2025, now expected to expand by 0.6%, and a decrease in inflation forecasts due to less tariff pass-through [2][12] - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.5%, prompting a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy normalization until December [2][12] - The trade war's impact on business sentiment has been significant, with sentiment dropping into recession territory, but the anticipated recession in the US for the second half of 2025 has been removed due to the tariff détente [3][11] - Despite the positive developments, the overall global growth outlook remains weak, with recession risks still estimated at 40% for the second half of 2025 [11][17] Additional Important Content - The current US tariff rate represents a substantial tax hike equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which could lead to upward pressure on prices for imported goods [14] - The US fiscal policy is shifting towards a more stimulative approach, with a proposed net stimulus of nearly 1% of GDP for the next year, which is expected to support continued labor demand and economic expansion [14][19] - The easing of trade tensions with China does not imply a resolution of trade issues with the EU and other Asian countries, where negotiations remain contentious [11][18] - The US administration's recent actions indicate a willingness to avoid "short-term pain for long-term gain," which has positively influenced asset prices and market sentiment [12][19] - The anticipated growth drag on China due to tariffs has been reduced to -1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025 [20] - The economic integration deals with Gulf states, including significant investments and economic exchanges, are expected to enhance trade flows but have limited immediate economic impact [19][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of US trade policy changes and their effects on the broader economic landscape.

丹麦丹斯克银行推迟美联储降息预期，因经济衰退风险缓解 金十数据5月20日讯，丹斯克银行研究中心的分析师在一份报告中表示，由于近期关税驱动的经济衰退 风险正在缓解，该机构推迟了对美联储降息的预测。丹斯克银行现在预计美联储下一次降息将在9月 份，比之前预测的6月份晚了一个季度。然而，他们维持对终端利率的预测为3.00%-3.25%。随着美联储 开始每季度降息一次，最终利率现在要到2026年9月才能达到。宽松的金融环境、较低的关税以及4月份 强于预期的宏观经济数据降低了近期降息的必要性。但长期来看，结构性增长放缓和信贷增长依然低 迷，继续预示着未来将进一步降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade situation appears to be easing, while the economy still faces shallow and short recession risks [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's council member Martins Kazaks commented on the current trade dynamics [1] - There is an indication that the economic outlook remains fragile, with potential for a brief recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to significant tariff reductions, which have lowered the risk of a US economic recession. However, the effective tariff rate of 15.5% remains elevated compared to last year's 2.4%, indicating that inflation risks are not fully alleviated [1][4]. Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions - Following the tariff reductions, the effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, significantly reducing recession risks. This reduction alleviates the pressure on import costs, restores consumer confidence, and lowers the risks of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, thereby stabilizing overall economic demand [4]. - Despite the reduction, the retained 10% baseline tariff on most countries will continue to exert supply-side pressure, potentially leading to a 0.73 percentage point decline in the US GDP growth rate by 2025 compared to a scenario without tariffs. This impact is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 1.4 percentage point decline [4]. - The unemployment rate may rise by an additional 0.5 percentage points in 2025 due to the economic slowdown, although the increase may be less pronounced than in previous years due to a reduced influx of labor supply [4]. Inflation Risks - The increase in the effective tariff rate compared to last year, combined with the depreciation of the US dollar, continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods. The significant rise in tariff revenue in April indicates that businesses and consumers will still bear the cost of tariffs [6]. - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation primarily due to a decline in service prices, but certain goods, such as entertainment products and appliances, have seen price increases. For instance, audio equipment prices rose by 8.8% [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that price increases typically occur 2-3 months after tariffs are fully implemented, indicating that the current inflation data may not yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is currently more focused on inflation risks rather than recession risks. The recent tariff reductions have lessened recession concerns but have not completely eliminated inflation risks, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9]. - The Fed has postponed its interest rate cut predictions to the fourth quarter, with expectations of a reduction of less than 50 basis points for the year. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a more aggressive cut if tariffs remained high [9]. Potential Risks - There are two main risks to the current predictions: potential changes in tariff policies that could reignite recession fears and weak demand leading to lower oil prices and service inflation, which could offset the inflationary pressures from tariffs [10].

瑞穗首席执行官Masahiro Kihara表示，由于特朗普政府的关税措施使商业规划更加不可预测，全球贸易 的不确定性导致该银行预测更为保守的前景。一天前，三井住友金融集团警告说，客户对交易和投资变 得谨慎起来，它拨出了900亿日元以应对经济衰退风险。 这些日本银行在过去一年中实现了创纪录的利润，这得益于人们期待已久的日本央行加息，以及出售所 持客户公司股票带来的收益。但日本依赖贸易的经济出现下滑的风险，给进一步加息的前景蒙上了阴 影，并给股价带来压力。 MUFG在一份报告中表示，"高度不确定性"使得预测贸易政策对经济、商业环境和业绩的影响具有挑战 性。该报告列出了从滞胀到对美元失去信任等一系列风险。 所有银行的净利润指引都低于分析师的平均预期，不过这对日本银行来说并不罕见，即使在经济稳定时 期，它们在设定年度目标时也往往很谨慎。 日本最大的几家银行预计，今年的利润将再创历史新高，并公布了回购股票的计划，尽管它们警告称， 贸易紧张局势可能会损害商业和经济增长。日本最大的银行三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)周四表示，截至 明年3月份的12个月，该公司净利润预计将增长7.5%，至2万亿日元(合137亿美元)。瑞穗金融 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various commodities. It suggests different investment strategies based on market conditions, such as being cautious with bonds, considering long positions in stock index futures, and taking long positions in gold futures [6][10][12]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 5 - year contract fell slightly. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. It is recommended to be cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising slightly, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell [8]. - **Analysis**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long positions in stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index improved [12]. - **Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and trade frictions are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to take long positions in gold futures on dips [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [14]. - **Analysis**: The real estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the current peak demand season may support prices. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [16]. - **Analysis**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke from steel mills is weakening. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [18][19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Spot prices also showed some changes [21]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are concerns about manganese ore supply disruptions. It is recommended to consider long positions in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and exit short positions for silicon iron at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. There are various data and news in the energy market [23][24]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening high and then fluctuating lower. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The possibility of relaxed US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, but tariff agreements are beneficial for demand recovery. It is recommended to take long positions in the main fuel oil contract [27][28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure persists, but demand is expected to improve due to tariff expectations, and costs are rebounding. It is expected to be short - term bullish [30][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [32]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, but demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. Spot prices increased slightly, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Analysis**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [35][37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The adjustment of export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor policy changes and price differences between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread increased [41]. - **Analysis**: The short - term upward repair of crude oil prices and positive sentiment are expected to drive PX prices to rebound. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to crude oil price changes and macro - policies [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased [42]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure and the expected improvement in costs are expected to drive PTA prices to rebound. It is recommended to operate in the low - price range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is slower than expected, and imports are reduced. It is expected that prices will have upward space. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Demand improved slightly, and costs increased [44]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals and the support from costs are expected to drive short - fiber prices to adjust bullishly. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on dips and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Costs increased, and demand improved [45]. - **Analysis**: The increase in raw material prices and the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals are expected to drive bottle - chip prices to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to cost price changes [45]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Production decreased, and inventory increased [46]. - **Analysis**: The market remains in a loose pattern, but the concentrated maintenance in May may lead to short - term adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. There are changes in production lines and market prices [47][48][49]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The tariff adjustment and the expected policy support may have an impact on market sentiment, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Production increased slightly, and inventory was at a neutral level [50]. - **Analysis**: The demand for caustic soda is limited, but the maintenance of some plants in May may provide some driving force. It is necessary to focus on plant operations and liquid chlorine prices [50][51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff negotiation result gave some confidence, but the supply - demand situation is still loose [52]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound may be due to tariff news. It is necessary to pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption - stimulating policies [52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand situation is in surplus [54][55]. - **Analysis**: The decline in ore prices weakens the cost support, and the demand slows down. It is expected to run weakly [55]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. Spot prices decreased slightly [56]. - **Analysis**: The Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day moving average suppresses prices. The Sino - US negotiation results may lead to price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. There are changes in supply and demand [58][59]. - **Analysis**: The contradiction between the current shortage and the expected supply increase is expected to lead to a bearish - fluctuating trend [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply and demand situation is complex [60]. - **Analysis**: The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity after the repair of macro - sentiment [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Spot prices of polysilicon decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The demand in the industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is in the capacity - clearing cycle, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [61][62]. Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Spot prices also changed [63]. - **Analysis**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is strong, and it is recommended to consider out - of - the - money call options [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose, but the increase was limited by inventory. Domestic palm oil imports and consumption data are available [65][66]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67]. Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. There are changes in domestic supply and demand and inventory [68]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider long positions in rapeseed meal after a pull - back [68][69]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures fluctuated, and external cotton futures fell. There are various data and news [70][71]. - **Analysis**: The end of the peak season weakens demand, but the Sino - US negotiation results may support prices. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay attention to tariff policies [70][72][73]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures fluctuated at a low level, and external sugar futures rose. There are production and inventory data from Brazil and India [75]. - **Analysis**: The global trade friction affects demand. It is expected to run in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [75][76][77]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. There are signs of production reduction, and inventory is at a low level [78][79]. - **Analysis**: The low inventory and the expected production reduction may lead to a strong spot price. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pull - back [79][80]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [81]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices rose. There are data on production, cost, and inventory [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may support prices. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [83][84]. Corn/Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [85][86][87]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of corn is still there, but the bottom support is strong. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. Import data and spot price changes are available [88]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the spot market has weak support for the futures price [88][89].

路透调查：债券策略师担心美债避险地位 金十数据5月13日讯，路透调查：35位债券策略师中有19位表示担心美国国债的避险地位。预计美国10 年期国债收益率三个月后将降至4.26%，六个月后降至4.27%，一年后降至4.25%（4月调查分别为 4.21%、4.20%和4.14%）。33位债券策略师中有19位称经济衰退风险对美国10年期国债收益率的影响大 于通胀上升。 ...

中美贸易协议周一为市场注入强心针，但在关税问题上取得的进展并未完全消除美国经济和股市面临的 一些风险。 持续数周紧张观望的投资者终于松了口气，但华尔街意见领袖们反应各异：他们虽看好美国经济前景改 善，却仍警惕市场潜在风险。 以下是顶尖机构的深度解析： 摩根士丹利首席投资官威尔逊（Mike Wilson） 这位曾准确预判股市"底部"的分析师认为，此前由特朗普引发的历史性抛售已告终结。他重申标普500 指数年底将站上6500点的预测（较当前有12%涨幅），并指出关税压力减轻为美联储降息打开空间，这 将直接利好股票等风险资产。 "如果关税威胁减弱，美联储就能重新平衡双重使命。"威尔逊对CNBC表示，"虽然增长前景稍显乐 观，但政策天平可能更倾向刺激经济而非抑制通胀。"他特别强调，随着美元走弱及中美谈判推进，经 济衰退风险已"显著降低"，企业盈利预期随之改善："从评级调整角度看，下半年表现很可能超越预 期，毕竟上半年实在太糟糕了。" 阿波罗首席经济学家斯洛克（Torsten Slk） 这位经济学家直指协议移除了经济领域的"重大尾部风险"——即中美在原始关税下彻底切断贸易的恐 慌。消费者、企业和国际资本对美国经济信心的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a daily low of $3274.75 per ounce, closing up 0.63% at $3327.03 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures also rising 0.60% to $3326 per ounce, indicating a technical correction [1] - The market is experiencing mixed signals, with significant progress reported in the UK-US bilateral trade agreement, where the UK agreed to concessions on US agricultural imports in exchange for potential tariff reductions on UK car exports, which may temporarily weaken safe-haven demand [3] - Despite the trade agreement, global investors remain concerned about geopolitical uncertainties and recession risks, leading to continued inflows into safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The precious metals sector showed a mixed performance, with spot silver rising 0.10% to $32.486 per ounce, platinum increasing 0.08% to $982.48 per ounce, and palladium leading the sector with a 0.54% gain, closing at $978.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the precious metals market may continue to experience range-bound fluctuations amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, with investors advised to closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and next week's US CPI data for insights on future price movements [4]