Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has surged, reaching a new high since 2010, driven by macroeconomic factors, strong industrial demand, and increased investment interest in silver assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 26, the London spot silver price broke through $46 per ounce, peaking at $46.62, marking a 30% increase over the past six months and a 59% rise year-to-date, outperforming most commodities [1]. - The price of silver has been significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, which enhance the appeal of dollar-denominated silver [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, electric grid upgrades, and automotive electronics, despite ongoing efforts to reduce silver usage in photovoltaic cells [3]. - The silver market is experiencing a persistent supply gap, with strong industrial demand supporting price increases [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Silver ETFs have seen substantial inflows, with over 95 million ounces net inflow in the first half of the year, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a revival in investment demand [3]. - The Indian market has shown increased investment buying and inventory replenishment, contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term silver prices are expected to remain influenced by macroeconomic conditions and gold price movements, with potential for further increases if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [4][5]. - The silver market is projected to remain in a supply-demand deficit, although the gap may decrease from 2024's high levels [4].

Group 1: Precious Metals Prices - International platinum prices surged, with London gold rising 0.29% to $3759.895 per ounce, London silver increasing 2.46% to $45.994 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011, international palladium up 1.7% to $1305.3 per ounce, and international platinum up 3.61% to $1611.52 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% compared to 2.6% previously [2][4] - Personal income in August grew by $95.7 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditure rose by $129.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, both exceeding prior expectations by 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 55.1 in September, a decrease of about 5% from August, with the current economic conditions index dropping from 61.7 to 60.4, and the consumer expectations index falling from 55.9 to 51.7 [5] - Nearly 70% of U.S. consumers expect inflation to exceed income growth in the coming year, while about 65% anticipate an increase in unemployment rates [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for decisive and preemptive interest rate cuts to address worsening labor market issues [7][8] - Recent data indicates a significant increase in labor market vulnerability, prompting calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased, with strong economic data complicating the outlook for potential rate reductions [10] Group 5: Gold Price Forecasts - Several institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, and Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [11] - The potential impact of U.S. government shutdown risks and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold's long-term investment appeal [11]

Group 1 - The recent interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve is viewed as a positive signal for risk assets, indicating a current loose financial environment [1][3] - The rate adjustment is interpreted as a "preventive measure," with the Fed signaling future policy paths through its latest economic forecasts [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted increased downside risks to employment, suggesting a shift towards prioritizing job security and economic stability over immediate inflation concerns [3] Group 2 - The Fed's increased tolerance for short-term inflation aims to create more space for achieving a "soft landing" for the economy [3] - Current data does not support concerns that rate cuts indicate economic weakness, as the U.S. economic fundamentals remain robust with a low probability of recession in the near term [3][5] - Key supporting factors include stable corporate earnings growth, strong retail performance, accelerated business loan growth, and a significant investment trend driven by artificial intelligence [3] Group 3 - Government measures such as deregulation, infrastructure investment, and tax cuts are enhancing the long-term supply capacity of the economy [4] - The combination of further monetary easing and fiscal policy is providing strong support for economic growth [4] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a moderate "risk appetite," focusing on cyclical sectors sensitive to economic growth recovery and small-cap stocks and tech growth stocks that are more sensitive to declining financing costs [4] Group 4 - Despite an optimistic outlook, several risk factors warrant monitoring, including signs of economic slowdown, changes in the labor market, potential inflation resurgence, and rapid increases in long-term interest rates [4] - Current high-frequency data indicates that these risk factors do not pose a significant threat, with the overall market remaining in a healthy state [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has shifted investor focus from whether rates will be lowered to the stability of the U.S. economy and its impact on the stock market's performance at historical highs [3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to cut rates was supported by Chairman Powell, overcoming internal disagreements, and the market anticipates up to three more cuts by March next year [3]. - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 67% of fund managers believe in a "soft landing" for the economy, while only 10% fear a recession [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that global and European stock markets typically benefit from Fed rate cuts, especially when no recession follows, leading to stronger stock performance [5]. - Barclays' strategist Emmanuel Cau found that in past instances of rate cuts without subsequent recession, European stocks often outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Despite overall optimism, some market participants express caution regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, noting that rate cuts do not guarantee immediate stock market gains [6]. - Concerns arise about the sources of upward momentum in the market, as institutional investors are heavily invested, and stock buybacks are slowing down [7]. - The current market rally is largely driven by a few "star stocks," indicating a narrow breadth of market participation, which raises concerns about overall market health [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Strategists suggest diversifying investments beyond the U.S. market, as historical trends indicate that global markets benefit from Fed rate cuts [9]. - There is a recommendation to consider European and other international stocks as potential opportunities, especially given their performance relative to U.S. stocks during similar economic conditions [9].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are leaning towards easing, which supports a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Last week, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend, driven by expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve ahead of the interest rate meeting [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of the September interest rate meeting results, precious metal prices saw a brief adjustment but rebounded due to increased risk aversion, maintaining an overall bullish trend [2][49] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, alleviating concerns about the labor market, although it remains above the average levels of July and August, indicating potential weakness [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales data showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.63% in August, indicating a significant improvement compared to the second quarter [8] - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, while maintaining the inflation forecast for 2025 [14] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a consensus for two more rate cuts within the year, with expectations for cuts in October and December [15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over U.S. government funding and trade risks between the U.S. and China, which could lead to short-term volatility [2][49] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market as gold prices rise [28] - The SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons, indicating a recovery in market sentiment following a period of decline [31]

如果说将来真的有一天，在二十一世纪中叶，和二十世纪的剧本一样，人类可以回到上一个世纪90年代 的全球化水平。到时候有机会组织一个活动庆祝的话，我就会把王菲《Eyes On Me》这首歌当做主题 曲。一个来自北京的姑娘，在香港出道，唱着一首日本人写的英文歌曲。然后感动了全世界无数游戏玩 家。 但我们现在的世界不是如此，之前说过，在标志性的政治人物被暗杀之后，对事情的处理有且只有两种 做法，而它们之间的分歧巨大。 要么是大家意识到，之前的分歧太大，大家用恶毒的语句攻击彼此，最后走上肉体毁灭的道路，是时候 停下来。然后双方共同谴责这种行为 这是在短期的可能性。 而在长期，没有例外，政治极化几乎从来不会因为暗杀而结束，这是肉体消灭没有意义的地方，拉宾遇 刺之后，和平并没有持续，帕尔梅遇刺之后，瑞典今天还是面对开放移民和福利社会的矛盾。 今天的情况我觉得不会有两样，在Charlie Kirk的纪念仪式上，他的遗孀原谅了杀害他的人，无论这是 不是作秀，我都尊重这种宽容，我从来不相信超过15个人的集会上，存在有任何绝对真实的事情。凡事 论迹不论心。而Trump用戏谑的语气说""I hate my opponent and ...

Monetary Policy Impact - On September 17, the Federal Reserve "restarted" interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.0% and 4.25%[2] - This 25 basis point cut was anticipated due to recent economic indicators showing a slowdown, particularly in non-farm employment[2] - The Fed's cautious stance suggests a likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in October, while December's expectations remain uncertain[2] Historical Context - The Fed has previously experienced seven instances of "hawkish rate cuts" after pausing, often in response to confirmed economic weakness or crisis events[2] - The current rate cut is categorized as a "preventive rate cut," similar to historical instances in 1985, 1995, and 2002, which reflect economic uncertainty but aim for a soft landing[3] Market Reactions - Historical analysis shows that "preventive" rate cuts tend to positively influence emerging market stocks, growth stocks, and commodities, while the dollar may weaken[3] - Following the Fed's rate cut, global stock performance is likely to depend on the U.S. economic fundamentals, with past instances showing varied outcomes based on economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Fed's median projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 have been revised upward to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, while unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 4.5%[11] - The core PCE inflation forecast remains stable, with projections of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for the same period[11] Sector Performance - In the wake of the rate cut, sectors such as real estate and consumer goods are showing signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes in first-tier cities and improved car sales[4] - Commodity prices, particularly for coking coal and industrial silicon, have seen upward trends, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics[4]

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（9月15日至9月19日）A股市场在政策预期与科技主线驱动下呈现结构性分化格局。尽 管上证指数、上证 50 等大盘蓝筹指数承压调整，但创业板指、科创50等成长风格指数表现强劲，显示 市场对科技赛道的持续偏好。具体来看，创业板50以2.84%的涨幅领跑，科创50上涨1.84%，反映出资 金对新能源电池、储能、半导体等泛科技领域的集中配置。从风格差异看，中证 500、中证 1000 等中 小盘指数分别微涨 0.32% 和 0.21%，相对抗跌，而大盘蓝筹代表上证 50、沪深 300 则分别下跌 1.98% 和 0.44%，体现出政策支持下中小市值成长股的韧性。全周上证指数下跌1.30%，深证指数上涨1.14%， 创业板指上涨2.34%。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均跌幅0.57%，Wind百大概念指数上涨比例60%。板块方面，42%板块获得 正收益，煤炭、电力设备、电子相对表现良好，分别上涨3.51%、3.07%、2.96%，机械设备、社会服 务、家用电器等也出现上行，而非银金融、有色金属、银行则明显走弱，分别下跌3.66%、4.02%、 4.21%。 基金发行： 上周合计发 ...