报告摘要 美元还会继续弱吗？——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事（比如"去美元化"）大行其道，但宏大叙事难以提供对短期市场走势的有效指引。本文不谈长期宏观叙事，而是希望从我们观察 到的美元指数与其历史规律"锚"的两大背离出发，结合具体数据，重新审视当下流行的美元叙事。 （一）思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1 、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 基于美元指数两个背离 ( 长期与经济占比"脱钩"，短期与十债利率反向 ) 的思辨，我们认为，需要重新审视并修正"美元将开启持续单边下跌向 70-80 年代看齐"的 叙事。实际上，中期视角而言，考虑到美国相对欧日经济增速差或仍然占优、当下全球养老资管机构因美元波动率上行补美元空仓的交易 或 已比较极致，美元下 跌最快的时候或已过去，未来半年到一年或难言美元持续下行，反而可能需要警惕因仓位演绎较为充分带来的美元反弹风险 。 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the U.S. Treasury market and its impact on global asset classes, particularly in the context of changing perceptions regarding the U.S. dollar and its role in the global economy [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift from U.S. Exception to De-dollarization**: There has been a significant shift in market expectations from the U.S. exception narrative to a de-dollarization outlook, which has altered the correlation between stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This has diminished the traditional safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - **Decline in Correlation**: The correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has decreased, leading to a rebound in both U.S. Treasuries and equities, while the U.S. dollar index has declined [2]. - **10-Year Treasury Term Premium**: The 10-year term premium for U.S. Treasuries has reached its highest point in nearly a decade, approximately 0.8%. The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts will significantly influence Treasury yields and market demand [3]. - **Dollar Index Depreciation**: The U.S. dollar index has depreciated by about 7% this year, primarily due to the shift in market expectations and changes in global capital flows [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Global Capital Flows**: There has been a notable outflow of capital from the U.S. Treasury market, with funds returning to the Eurozone bond market, which has kept the 10-year Eurozone bond yields relatively stable (between 3.1% and 3.3%) despite volatility in other sovereign rates [6]. - **Foreign Investment in Sovereign Securities**: The rising interest of foreign investors in Eurozone, German, and Japanese sovereign securities indicates a shift in global capital allocation, which could have varying impacts on the yields of these securities [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...

Employment Data Insights - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the forecast of 126,000 but down from the previous month's increase of 177,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.24%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points month-on-month, while the labor participation rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 62.37%[3] - The household survey indicated a reduction of 696,000 jobs in May, with full-time employment decreasing by 623,000, accounting for 89.5% of the total job loss[3] Data Quality Concerns - April's non-farm employment figure was revised down by 30,000 to 147,000, and March's figure was revised down by 65,000 to 120,000, totaling a downward revision of 90,000 over two months[2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total downward revision of 189,000 in non-farm employment, representing a 36.2% adjustment, similar to last year's 36.9%[2] - Systematic errors in initial non-farm data are suggested, as companies with poorer conditions tend to report later, affecting data accuracy[2] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose by approximately 10 basis points, with the 10-year yield returning to above 4.5%[1] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has decreased from over 50 basis points to 44 basis points, indicating a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve[7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to delay any interest rate cuts until at least September, as employment data does not show significant deterioration[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the gold price trend remains upward despite fluctuations caused by tariff expectations, with a strong focus on inflation resilience and long-term interest rates [5] - Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating around a cost level of $9,350 due to tariff uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [6] - Aluminum prices are projected to rise, supported by strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [6] - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to tight supply and stable demand from the steel sector [7] - Rare earth prices are under short-term pressure but are expected to recover as export controls ease and mining quotas are issued [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,668.39, with a weekly high of 5,020.22 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price declines: Copper down 1.03%, Aluminum down 1.39%, Zinc down 2.93%, Lead down 1.23%, and Tin down 6.73% - Precious metals experienced mixed results: Gold up 0.41%, Silver down 0.93%, Platinum down 9.60% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: Copper down 11,442 tons, Aluminum down 12,499 tons, Zinc down 12,099 tons, Lead down 4,080 tons, Tin down 106 tons, and Nickel down 681 tons [26]

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now indicates a 2.4% actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025, with a -0.1% adjustment excluding gold impacts[1] - The actual personal consumption Nowcast rose to 3.7% last week, indicating strong consumer spending[1] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, below expectations, while continuing claims increased to 1.903 million, exceeding forecasts[1] Manufacturing and PMI Data - The US May PMI rose to 52.5, with both manufacturing and services PMIs at 52.3, surpassing expectations and previous values[2] - Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs also exceeded expectations, at 49.4 and 49 respectively, although service sectors showed weakness[2] Policy Developments - The US House passed the "Beautiful Act," which includes tax cuts, defense spending, and an increase in the debt ceiling, with fiscal expansion slightly exceeding expectations[3] - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, while Japan softened its stance on tariffs[3] Financial Market Trends - US stock markets experienced a pullback, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively[4] - The yield on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp, 8bp, and 15bp to 4.0%, 4.51%, and 5.04% respectively[4] - The US dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.1, while the euro and yen appreciated by 0.9% to 1.13 and 1.3% to 143.3 respectively[4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 5.6% to $3365.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $65.6 per barrel[4]

一、美债利率上行的原因 美东时间5月21日，美债利率全线上升，10年期美债利率突破4.6%，30年期美债利率突破5.0%，我们对此点评 如下： 第一，20年期美债拍卖结果较差，这是利率上行的导火索。 20年期美债最终得标利率为5.05%，相较4月高出 约20BP，也是自2023年11月以来首次突破5.0%整数大关，投标倍数同样出现了明显下滑。 第四，美国经济硬数据稳健，市场对通胀存在担忧，叠加美联储在降息问题上维持定力，基本面和货币政策对 利率偏空。 二、美债策略展望：短期波动不改震荡趋势，配置中短久期美债，回避长债 短期来看，上述利空因素可能将继续发酵，利率存在进一步冲高的风险，但美国评级下调等因素偏短期，影响 预计难以持久，同时美国经济在关税和通胀背景下仍有压力，认为美债利率不具备持续大幅上行的条件，维持 利率宽幅震荡的观点不变。考虑到美债票息收益可观，仍值得配置，建议维持中短久期美债的配置，以票息策 略为主，长久期债券建议回避，若10Y国债利率上升至4.7%-5%区间，可能是一个较好的配置窗口。 -END- 本期作者 陈峤 资本市场研究员 chenqiao426 @cmbch ina .com 刘东亮 ...

股指早报 20 年美债拍卖遇冷，A 股震荡反复 2025 年 5 月 22 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.22 报告摘要： 海外方面，近期虽然美联储、美国财政部对穆迪下调美信用评级 进行了预期管理，但市场对美国财政问题的担忧并未消退。周三 160 亿美元的 20 年期美国国债拍卖最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破 5%大 关，反映投资者对美国国债的情绪进一步恶化。隔夜市场走势来看， 美债利率拍卖遇冷风险资产，美元指数进一步回落，10 年期美债收 益上升至 4.6%，黄金上涨，美三大股指跌幅均在 1%以上，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌 0.72%，离岸人民币汇率升值。关注美国资产资金 流出后流入新兴市场的迹象。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡上涨 0.21%，深成指上涨 0.44%，创业板指上涨 0.83%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹，但个股缺走弱 的走势。板块依旧是电风扇行情。从一级板块上看，煤炭、有色、电 力设备、银行涨幅靠前，美容护理、电子、社会服务、传媒跌幅靠前。 全市场 1615 只个股上涨，3599 只个股下跌。消息上看，中国与东盟 十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 整体来看，隔夜美 10 ...