1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish with a long - term strategic allocation recommendation, suggested to buy on dips [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds, both short - term trial and long - term investment are advised [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium - to - long - term, waiting for opportunities to short on rallies [1] - Lead: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to take long positions after corrections [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long run, showing a long - term bullish trend. The short - term price may be supported around 770, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver also has an upward trend, with a trading range of 9150 - 9400 in the short - term, and long - term investment is recommended [1][3][4] - Copper is in a high - level consolidation phase. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation overseas and it is the consumption off - season, the domestic social inventory is relatively tight. Long - term demand is expected to pick up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits [1][7][8] - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited [1][10][11] - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure due to insufficient terminal orders. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress [1][14][15] - Nickel price rebounds and then falls. With the slowdown of downstream production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate demand is about to enter the peak season. With supply - side speculation, there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch, and long positions should be held [1][22][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the impact of tariffs fades and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and impending US interest rate cuts, gold prices consolidate after a decline, and silver rebounds after stopping the decline [2] Basic Logic - Japan may raise interest rates in October. The US is likely to cut interest rates in September. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - Gold may be supported around 770 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range of silver is 9150 - 9400, and short - term trial orders can be made, while long - term investment is supported by fundamentals and the market trend [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper prices fall under pressure and test the support at 79,000 [7] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight. Although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas copper inventories accumulate slightly, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the supply - demand balance is tight throughout the year [7] Strategy Recommendation - After the macro - positive factors are realized, copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish, with the Shanghai copper price focusing on the range of [78000, 80000] and the LME copper price on [9650, 9950] dollars per ton [8] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc prices fall under pressure and show a weak and volatile trend [10] Industry Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is ample, and refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventories accumulate, while overseas LME zinc warrants are in short supply, with a risk of a soft squeeze [10] Strategy Recommendation - With tight LME zinc warrants, zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited. The Shanghai zinc price focuses on the range of [22200, 22800], and the LME zinc price on [2700, 2900] dollars per ton [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina prices first rebound and then fall [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment is positive, but downstream demand is weak, and inventories are rising. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with supply - demand remaining loose in the short - term [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel prices are under pressure [17] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and although short - term inventories decline, there is still long - term pressure [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens lower, strongly rallies, and then falls in the afternoon following market sentiment [21] Industry Logic - Although domestic weekly production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about production stoppages on the supply side, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [22] Strategy Recommendation - With the expectation of supply - side speculation still existing, long positions should be held in the range of [84200 - 88000] [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices is significant, with a sharp decline observed after a peak, indicating a potential for a long-term bullish trend despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - On May 15, gold prices experienced a substantial drop, with spot gold falling to a low of $3120 per ounce, representing a daily decline of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures dropped over 2% to $3123 per ounce [2][3]. - The peak price of spot gold reached $3500 per ounce just a month prior, marking a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3]. Economic Context - The rise in gold prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from the United States [5]. - The current price of gold has reverted to levels seen during a temporary tariff implementation period, indicating a correction in the market [4]. Historical Performance - The current bullish trend in gold began in July 2022, with prices increasing from $1900 per ounce to approximately $3100 per ounce, a rise of 63% [6][10]. - Historical patterns show that significant adjustments in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, as seen during past financial crises [16][17]. Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The slow recovery of the global economy post-pandemic has led to increased demand for gold as a safe haven asset [10]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, have heightened the appeal of gold as a protective investment [11]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, contributing to upward price pressure [12]. Dollar Credibility - The decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its associated assets is a fundamental factor driving the long-term bullish outlook for gold [13][14]. - Recent downgrades in the US sovereign credit rating have raised concerns about the stability of US government bonds and the dollar [13]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation and the diminishing influence of the US on the global stage suggest a continued bullish trend for gold [15]. - Central banks' ongoing accumulation of gold serves as a strong indicator of its future price stability and growth potential [18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors allocate a portion of their funds to gold for long-term holding, as it is expected to yield better returns compared to more volatile assets like stocks and funds [19][20]. - A balanced investment approach should include both aggressive assets and stable income-generating options to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices is significant, with a notable drop from a peak of $3500 per ounce to around $3120 per ounce, indicating a potential short-term adjustment but a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [3][6][18]. Price Movement - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8% [2][3]. - The price of gold has fallen approximately $400 per ounce in just two weeks, reversing gains made during a period of heightened tariffs [3][4]. Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from the U.S. [5]. - The current bullish trend in gold began in July 2022, with prices increasing from $1900 to $3100 per ounce, marking a 63% rise [6][10]. Key Drivers of Gold's Bull Market - **Economic Recovery Post-Pandemic**: The global economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [10]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The escalation of conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and unrest in the Middle East, has heightened the appeal of gold as a protective asset [11]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12][13]. Long-term Outlook - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by recent credit rating downgrades, is expected to sustain gold's long-term bullish trend [13][14]. - The U.S. influence on global affairs is waning, contributing to a shift towards gold as a viable alternative asset [15]. Investment Recommendations - Gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to gold for long-term holding [18][19]. - Historical trends indicate that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, reinforcing the case for long-term investment in gold [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices indicates a significant market reaction to global economic uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions [1][5][14]. Price Movements - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3,120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures fell over 2% to a minimum of $3,123 per ounce [2][3]. - In the previous month, gold had surged to a peak of $3,500 per ounce, resulting in a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3][4]. Historical Context - The current gold price reflects a retraction of gains made during a period of temporary tariff implementation [4]. - The gold market's upward trend began in July 2022, with prices rising from $1,900 per ounce to the current level of $3,100 per ounce, marking a 63% increase [6][10]. Driving Factors for Gold Prices - The post-pandemic economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to lower GDP growth rates in major economies, which historically drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10]. - Increased geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern unrest, have heightened the demand for gold as a protective asset [11]. - Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12]. Fundamental Issues - A critical factor in the long-term bullish trend for gold is the declining trust in U.S. sovereign credit, highlighted by recent downgrades from credit rating agencies [13]. - The inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar indicates that as the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against potential dollar depreciation [14]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation is expected to continue, driven by the U.S.'s diminishing global influence and internal political divisions, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for gold [15]. - Historical patterns show that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current economic uncertainties, gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to long-term gold holdings [18][19]. - It is suggested that the returns from gold investments over a five-year horizon are likely to outperform those from more volatile assets like stocks and funds [20].

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Group 1 - Recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been exacerbated by Moody's third downgrade of the US credit rating, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the debt-to-interest payment ratio is projected to rise from 73% in 2024 to 78% by 2035, significantly higher than that of peer sovereign nations [1][2] - The auction of Japan's 20-year bonds saw the lowest demand since 2012, indicating potential liquidity risks in the bond market, while the US faces a projected interest expenditure of $951 billion in 2024, accounting for 17% of federal spending [1][2] - The global trend of de-dollarization is evident as emerging market central banks continue to increase gold holdings, with a forecast of 1,136 tons purchased in 2024, marking a historical high [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, emphasizing an "anti-inflation priority" and adjusting its approach to the relationship between employment and inflation targets [3][4] - The Fed's new framework suggests a reduced likelihood of preemptive rate hikes before the labor market overheats, focusing instead on inflation performance [3][4] - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have diverged, with predictions shifting from June to July, influenced by tariff policies and political dynamics [5][6] Group 3 - The adjustment in the Fed's policy framework reflects its commitment to addressing the "new normal" in the post-pandemic economy, with anticipated rate cuts in 2025, potentially occurring between late Q2 and Q3 [5][6] - The interplay between gold's safe-haven appeal and the Fed's policy expectations is expected to create volatility in the gold market, with key events in June and July being closely monitored [6][7] - The risk of US Treasury market volatility transmitting to global financial markets is a concern, particularly for emerging markets facing increased external debt pressure and rising corporate financing costs [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].