2025年07月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：中国央行 6 月增持 7 万盎司黄金，连续 8 个月增持，速度有所恢复；特朗普向各国发送征税函，日 韩等 14 国 25%到 40%不等、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄 金库存 1144 吨，减少 8 吨；上期所黄金库存 21 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银库 存 1330 吨，减少 9 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1323 吨，减少 34 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15529 吨，减少 28 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 5 月白银进口约 450 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14868 吨，增加 22 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；白银反弹，近期市场销售走好，价格维持升水，使得银价维 持偏强走势，不过长期看白银工业用银扭转向下，依旧建议考虑长线布局空单或者择机做多金银比。 风险提示：贸易战反复 基本金属 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential narrowing of the decline in PPI in the second half of 2025, with June CPI showing a slight improvement to 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [2] - Global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the growth line, indicating an overall recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in developed economies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies and improving economic conditions [4] Macroeconomic Overview - June CPI in China improved to 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [2] - Global manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase, with developed markets improving while some emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showed marginal declines [2] Sector Analysis Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI and CPI, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices, with CPI expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% by Q4 2025 [5] - The report notes that the demand side remains critical for price elasticity, with industry self-discipline and private enterprise willingness being key factors [5] Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales, with June sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, driven by strong export growth [8] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8] Agriculture - The report highlights ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the pig farming industry, which may lead to inventory release and improved profitability for high-quality pig farming companies [9] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may gradually transition to a phase of high-quality competition, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [9] Renewable Energy and Equipment - The report anticipates strong growth for offshore wind energy, with a significant increase in orders expected to drive performance for leading companies in the sector [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and capacity expansion in the offshore wind sector [19] Electronics and Chemicals - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for Shengquan Group in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand for electronic materials [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions [20] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 23.44 HKD, driven by expected production growth and favorable gold price trends [15] - Harbin Electric is also rated as a "buy," with anticipated recovery in equipment demand across various energy sectors [15] - MGM China is highlighted for its strong performance in the non-gaming segment, benefiting from increased tourist traffic and successful entertainment events [17]

美元下跌如此凶猛，远超市场预期，而特朗普作为美国总统，显然难辞其咎。更确切地说，美元能够有 如此幅度的下跌，离不开特朗普的推波助澜。 这是特朗普想要看到的局面。 特朗普的关税和美国的债务水平正促使全球投资者重新考虑美元。 曾经的世界通用货币，如今正面临重大考验。 2025年上半年，衡量美元对一篮子其他六种货币（包括英镑、欧元和日元）强弱的美元指数下跌了 10.8%，这是自黄金支撑的布雷顿森林体系结束以来最糟糕的开局。 除了特朗普带来的不确定性之外，美国经济内部也有很大问题。 美国一季度GDP环比萎缩0.5%，消费者信心指数骤降至93，叠加美国债务规模突破37万亿美元，财政 赤字占GDP比重持续高于5%。 美国的债务问题，也是特朗普和马斯克关系破裂的关键因素。在特朗普要推行的"大而美"法案上，不仅 没有收缩美国开支，反而还在加剧。 全球去美元化，也是美元下跌的另一个因素。金砖国家本币结算规模同比增长47%，美元在全球外汇储 备中占比降至58%（1995年以来最低）。 历史总是惊人的相似。 今天的美元危机，早在1973年就发生过了。1973年美元因金本位制终结和石油危机贬值，引发全球通胀 与股市暴跌，其中美股下跌 ...

【渣打发布展望：超配全球股票，看淡美元】日前，渣打银行财富方案部发布《2025年下半年全球市场 展望》，主题为"美元转向，运筹决胜"。 展望指出，宏观层面上，全球央行放宽政策、美国大概率软 着陆及美元走弱，都利好风险资产。渣打继续看好全球股票，还将亚洲股票上调至超配。 因美元预计 走弱，渣打看好欧元、英镑和日元，以及5 - 7年期美元债券，将新兴市场本币债上调至超配。同时，美 国加征关税、通胀和数据疲软是主要风险，黄金和另类投资策略可降低波动。 渣打银行北亚区首席投 资总监称，全球投资环境仍具不确定性。今年"去美元化"受关注，美元走弱使资金流入新兴市场，预计 亚洲（除日本）股票市场领先。 其还建议投资者资产配置要兼顾类别和地域多样化，以获长期回报。 在美国软着陆情境下，渣打认为股票有上行空间，更倾向股市多于固定收益。 固定收益方面，美元走 弱利于增加新兴市场本币债配置。渣打看好中国科技、通信服务和非必需消费品行业，维持超配中国股 票。 对于各类关键资产表现，渣打财富管理团队给出观点。债券上，收益率有"拉锯战"，降息预期抵 消预算赤字忧虑。 渣打将全球债券作核心配置，超配新兴市场本币政府债，低配发达市场投资级公 ...

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

近期全球黄金市场出现"央行大买家购金力度下滑，对冲基金 等中小买家逢高获利离场"的状况。但是，随着美国重启对等 关税贸易战，加之美国"大而美"法案令美国债务规模继续快速 上升，未来全球央行仍会加大黄金购买力度，作为对冲金融市 场风险与"去美元化"的重要工具。 作者： 陈植 封图：图虫创意 尽管全球央行持续加仓黄金，但它对金价上涨的推动作用正悄然减弱。 7月4日，世界黄金协会发布最新数据显示，5月份全球央行净购入20吨黄金。 7月7日，中国国家外汇管理局发布数据显示，截至6月底，中国官方黄金储备为7390万盎司，较5 月环比增加7万盎司。 但是，全球黄金价格却"不为所动"，延续回调走势。在7月8日凌晨美国政府对多个国家出台新的 对等关税举措前，伦敦现货黄金价格一度跌破3300美元/盎司，较4月下旬历史高点下跌约200美 元。 "4月全球央行购金规模较3月环比减少12%，5月购金规模低于过去12个月平均值27吨，令华尔街 意识到二季度以来全球央行购金力度趋降，难以支撑黄金价格反弹，由此引发众多密切跟踪全球央 行购金动向的对冲基金对黄金获利了结。"长期参与COMEX黄金期货投资的华尔街对冲基金经理 张刚向记者分析说 ...

| 恒生指数 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | | 23892.32 8597.27 | 5231.99 | | -255.75 -1.06% -111.39 -1.28% -93.96 -1.76% | | 恒基地产跌8.64%，阿里巴巴跌3.83%，紫金矿业跌3.38%，领跌蓝筹。恒基地产大跌主要是由于公司披露，拟发行本金总额为80亿港元的可换股债券。 【导读】港交所：上半年总集资金额同比上升322%！5只新股齐上市首日均实现上涨 7月9日，恒生指数收跌1.06%，报23892.32点，恒生科技指数跌1.76%，恒生中国企业指数跌1.28%。全日市场成交额为2339亿港元，较前一交易日的 2132.89亿港元有所增加。南向资金净买入额为92.56亿港元。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 - | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 恒基地产 | 0012 | 25.900 c | -2.450 | -8.64% | 11.58亿 | 15.88% | | ...

超配全球股票，看淡美元。 日前，渣打银行财富方案部日前发布了主题为"美元转向，运筹决胜"的《2025年下半年全球市场展望》。 展望指出，从宏观层面来看，全球央行放宽政策、美国经济很大机会软着陆及美元走弱都有利于风险资产，渣 打继续看好全球股票，并将亚洲（除日本）股票上调至超配。 继续看好全球股票 由于美元预计走弱，渣打看好欧元、英镑和日元，以及5-7年期的美元债券，并将新兴市场本币债上调至超 配。此外，美国重新加征关税、通胀和经济数据疲软是主要风险，黄金和另类投资策略作为有吸引力的多元化 投资工具，有助于降低暂时的波动。 渣打银行北亚区首席投资总监郑子丰表示，当前，全球的投资环境仍然充满不确定性。今年以来，"去美元 化"的结构性风险备受关注，美元的走弱促使更多资金流入新兴市场，"我们预计包括中国和韩国在内的亚洲 （除日本）股票市场将表现领先"。 同时，郑子丰提到，在进行资产配置时，建议投资者不仅要考虑资产类别的多样化，还需要有地域的多样化， 通过多元化的资产配置维持长期的卓越回报。 值得注意的是，在美国经济软着陆的基本情境下，渣打仍然认为股票有进一步上行的空间，因此倾向于略微看 好股市多于固定收益。 在固定收 ...

近期加密货币市场正经历剧烈波动、地缘政治紧张持续发酵、全球货币体系面临重塑的背景下,一场静 悄悄却深刻的金融资产结构变革正在展开,黄金,这一历经千年考验的价值储存工具,正与加密世界 的"锚"稳定币发生意想不到的联动,而这一趋势,或许将重塑数字资产的储备格局,乃至整个全球金融生 态。 稳定币:为加密世界注入"锚定信任" 稳定币(Stablecoin)是一类加密货币,其核心价值在于价格锚定机制,不同于比特币、以太坊等价格剧烈波 动的加密资产,稳定币通常与法币(如美元、欧元)1:1挂钩,具有价格稳定性,它们被广泛应用于加密交易 所、去中心化金融(DeFi)协议以及跨境支付等场景,是加密金融体系的"流通血液",目前市场上最主流的 稳定币包括Tether(USDT)、Circle的USD Coin(USDC)以及Binance USD(BUSD)等,其中,Tether以超过1120 亿美元的市值,长期稳居稳定币之首;稳定币的信用支撑来源于底层储备资产,传统上以现金、国债等法币 资产为主。然而,近年来,某些稳定币发行机构开始悄然引入黄金等实物资产,试图在加密市场构建更加多 元、抗风险的价值锚定机制。 黄金摆脱了传统金融的 ...

【导读】港交所：上半年总集资金额同比上升322%！5只新股齐上市首日均实现上涨 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月9日，恒生指数收跌1.06%，报23892.32点，恒生科技指数跌1.76%，恒生中国企业指 数跌1.28%。全日市场成交额为2339亿港元，较前一交易日的2132.89亿港元有所增加。南 向资金净买入额为92.56亿港元。 恒基地产跌8.64%，阿里巴巴跌3.83%，紫金矿业跌3.38%，领跌蓝筹。恒基地产大跌主要 是由于公司披露，拟发行本金总额为80亿港元的可换股债券。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 消歧跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 恒县地产 | 0012 | 25.900 c | -2.450 | -8.64% | 11.58亿 | 15.88% | | 2 | 阿里巴巴-W | 9988 | 102.900 c | -4.100 | -3.83% | 139.51亿 | 26.98% | | 3 | 紫等处,不 | 2899 | 20.000 c | ...