来源：市场资讯 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国 12 月 PCE 高于预期，美联储会议纪要显示分歧明显；本周重点关 注美国 15%的全球关税生效、特朗普发表国情咨文以及英伟达财报等。 上周回顾美国 12 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比 3%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.8%。美国至 2 月 14 日当周初请失 业金人数 20.6 万人，为 1 月 10 日当周以来新低，预期 22.5 万人，前值由 22.7 万人修正为 22.9 万人。 2025 年第四季度美国 GDP 按年化增长 1.4%，显著低于道琼斯调查预期的 2.5%，全年增速为 2.2%，低 于 2024 年的 2.8%。美联储公布货币政策会议纪要显示美联储官员对货币政策预期分歧明显。本周重点 事件 & 指标 02 月 23 日 伊朗确定与美方的协议草案，以供谈判 02 月 24 日 02 月 26 日英伟达公布财报（05:00）美国至 2 月 21 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） （来源：吴说） 02 月 27 日美国 1 月 PPI 年率（21:30） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 美国 15%的全球关税生效 美国总统特朗普发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

2026年2月19日下午，国际黄金市场再次出现历史性行情，现货黄金价格冲上5008.070美元/盎司，日内 涨幅0.64%，伦敦金现一度逼近5010美元关口。 然而，国内市场的投资者看到的却是另一番景象，上海 黄金交易所的黄金T D报价1108.5元/克，下跌16.55元，跌幅1.47%，沪金主连期货报价1110.1元/克，下 跌18.16元，跌幅1.61%。 这种价格背离源于中国金融市场正处于春节假期休市状态，国内金价停留在 节前最后一个交易日的收盘水平，未能实时反映国际市场的暴涨。 国际黄金市场的这波拉升在春节期间就已开始。 2月19日亚盘时段，现货黄金从4842美元低位快速反 弹，一度逼近5000美元整数关口，单日波动超过160美元。 纽约COMEX黄金主力合约同步走强，涨幅 约2.30%。 推动这轮上涨的核心动力来自地缘政治风险的"报复性"回归，此前因美伊谈判预期导致的金 价下跌被市场视为"错杀"，随着谈判进展不如预期，甚至有消息称美军可能在本周末采取军事行动，避 险资金迅速回流黄金市场。 美元指数的大幅回落也为金价上涨提供了助推。 受美联储降息预期影响，美元走弱直接推高了以美元 计价的黄金价格。 市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing significant differentiation due to macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, with copper and zinc prices declining due to weak demand, while aluminum shows signs of rebound, and nickel, tin, and lead are being re-evaluated due to supply changes [1]. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure primarily due to weak demand, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as global stock market volatility and geopolitical risks [2]. - Supply disruptions, like strikes in Chilean copper mines, provide some support, but actual consumption in China is sluggish, leading to a buildup of social inventory and a shift from premium to discount pricing [2]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued high-level fluctuations, with a need to monitor macro events like non-farm payroll data for potential volatility [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market faces challenges from macroeconomic disturbances, including conflicting employment data in the U.S. and a strong dollar, which limit upward price movement [3]. - Demand is weakened by seasonal effects and environmental production limits, leading to reduced operating rates in aluminum processing enterprises and rising social inventories [3]. - Short-term aluminum prices may remain optimistic, but recovery is contingent on post-holiday demand rebound and macroeconomic stabilization [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices are dominated by bearish sentiment, with significant declines observed due to a strong dollar and falling global stock markets [4][5]. - The domestic zinc market is under pressure from weak terminal consumption and high prices, leading to active price reductions by holders [5]. - Short-term expectations indicate continued weak performance, with prices likely to remain under pressure around 24,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a strong dollar and stock market declines impacting risk appetite [6]. - Supply is marginally relaxed due to stable primary lead production and increased imports, while demand from the lead-acid battery sector is low due to seasonal effects [6]. - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain weak, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and overseas supply, although low inventory levels provide some support [6]. Nickel - Nickel prices are pressured by high inventory levels and weak demand from the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors [7]. - The market is currently adjusting expectations regarding supply disruptions and demand from new energy sectors [7]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued weak fluctuations, with a need for new driving factors to emerge [7]. Tin - Tin market dynamics are influenced by supply recovery from Myanmar and stable conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alleviating previous supply concerns [8]. - Demand is showing a split between traditional electronics and emerging sectors, with insufficient growth in new areas to offset seasonal weaknesses [8]. - Short-term tin prices may enter a phase of adjustment, with close monitoring required on supply recovery and demand signals [8]. Market Strategy - The macroeconomic landscape should be closely monitored for signals regarding Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and Chinese economic data [9]. - In the copper and aluminum sectors, a range-bound trading strategy is recommended, with attention to emerging demand and supply disruptions [10]. - For nickel and tin, caution is advised regarding high inventory levels and supply recovery expectations, awaiting substantial demand improvement signals [11].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for December 2025 increased from 2.8% to 3.0% year-on-year, and the month-on-month change rose from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The overall PCE price index for December 2025 also saw a rise from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The rebound in PCE price data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations that rates will remain unchanged until at least May 2026 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q4 2025 significantly dropped from 4.4% to 1.4%, falling short of the expected 3.0%, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] - The dual risks of economic downturn and potential inflation rebound complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - A potential military strike by President Trump against Iran could lead to a spike in international oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S. economy [2] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook places the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, prompting investors to approach the U.S. capital markets with caution [3] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar may accelerate the outflow of international capital from U.S. markets [3]

2月20日，随着中东地区地缘政治引信的再次缩短，贵金属市场正处于爆发前的静默期。FPG财盛国际 表示，当前市场参与者的目光高度锁定在美军于中东的武力部署动态，这种极度紧张的外部环境为金银 提供了坚实的底部支撑。事实数据表示，4月黄金期货价格近期徘徊于5018美元上方，而3月白银期货则 稳步攀升至78美元关口。尽管短线涨幅收窄，但在地区冲突风险转化为实际行动之前，市场的观望情绪 依然浓厚。 技术层面，黄金多头的下一个战略目标是站稳5250美元阻力位，而白银的看涨预期则直指90美元。尽管 美联储的政策转向带来了阵痛，但地缘政治的"黑天鹅"风险依然是贵金属最核心的溢价来源。FPG财盛 国际表示，投资者应密切关注本周末局势的实质性进展，在全球债务风险与政权摩擦并行的2026年，黄 金与白银的避险防御属性将持续受到市场资本的青睐。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 2月20日，随着中东地区地缘政治引信的再次缩短，贵金属市场正处于爆发前的静默期。FPG财盛国际 表示，当前市场参与者的目光高度锁定在美军于中东的武力部署动态，这种极度紧张的外部环境为金银 提供了坚实的底部支撑。事实数据表示，4月黄金期货 ...

2026年2月，国际黄金市场炸开了一个历史性的数字：5000美元。 每盎司黄金的价格，第一次站上了这 个曾经遥不可及的心理关口。 就在2月18日晚上，伦敦现货黄金价格日内涨幅超过2.5%，强势冲上5000 美元。 这个数字像一颗投入湖面的巨石，瞬间在国内市场激起了滔天巨浪。 人们一边看着屏幕上疯狂 跳动的金价曲线感到心跳加速，一边涌向全国各地的金店和银行，上演了一场"越涨越买"的集体狂欢。 国际金价的这轮冲锋并非一帆风顺。 整个2026年1月，黄金市场就像坐上了一台失控的过山车。 1月下 旬，金价曾一路狂飙，在1月29日冲上了5598.75美元的历史最高点。 然而仅仅一天之后，市场风云突 变，金价单日暴跌超过9%，一度逼近4400美元。 这种单日近20%的振幅，让无数投资者惊出一身冷 汗。 进入2月，金价围绕5000美元关口展开了激烈的拉锯战，日内波动两三百美元成了家常便饭。 2月 13日，现货黄金价格报5042.205美元，重新回到了5000美元上方。 到了2月19日，伦敦金现货价格依然 坚守在5014.62美元的高位。 这种史诗级的波动，让2026年的开年贵金属市场充满了戏剧性。 国际市场的风浪，几乎同步 ...

春节假期，当大家忙着拜年、吃团圆饭的时候，国际黄金市场却上演了一出惊心动魄的"过山车"。 就在2026年2 月19日，国际现货黄金价格从低点暴力拉升，强势站上了每盎司5000美元的历史性关口，单日振幅超过150美元。 而与此同时，因为春节长假，国内的黄金交易所、期货市场全部休市，价格还停留在节前的1108.5元/克左右。 这 意味着，国内外的金价出现了明显的"时间差"和"价格差"。 节后一开盘，国内金价将直接与国际市场接轨，假期 里国际市场的所有剧烈波动，都可能在国内开盘那一刻集中兑现。 2026年2月19日，国际黄金市场的交易员们经历了一个不眠夜。 伦敦现货黄金价格在盘中最低触及4842美元后， 被强大的买盘力量迅速拉起，一路冲高，最高触及5021.25美元，最终收报在5014.62美元附近。 算下来，一天之 内就涨了将近40美元，涨幅接近0.8%。 如果从当天的最低点算起，反弹的幅度超过了160美元。 这种先暴跌再暴 涨的"深V"走势，让市场情绪在极度悲观和极度亢奋之间快速切换。 同一天，纽约商品交易所的黄金期货价格也 同步走强，报在5035.7美元。 白银、铂金、钯金等其他贵金属也出现了大幅波动，整个贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gold market is experiencing a significant price disparity between retail prices and exchange prices, influenced by international market trends and domestic market conditions during the Chinese New Year holiday [1][3][19] Price Discrepancy - On February 19, 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T D price was 1108.50 CNY per gram, while retail prices at stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reached 1560 CNY per gram, creating a gap of nearly 450 CNY [1][3] - The T D price reflects the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), not the current market price, as the exchange was closed during the holiday [4][19] International Market Dynamics - On the same day, the London spot gold price surpassed 5000 USD per ounce, marking a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [6][19] - The price in London rose by 36.6 USD (0.74%) from the previous day, indicating strong international market activity despite the domestic market's stagnation [6] Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks purchased 863 tons of gold in 2025, with China's central bank holding 7419 million ounces (approximately 2307 tons) as of January 2026, indicating a strategic increase in gold reserves [7][19] Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy - Strong U.S. employment data in January 2026 altered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced attractiveness of gold as an investment [9][10] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.35%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [10] Market Segmentation - The Chinese gold market has developed three distinct pricing tiers: - The lowest tier reflects the financial attributes of gold, with T D prices closely tied to international market movements [12][19] - The middle tier represents wholesale prices, such as those in Shenzhen, which are close to raw material costs [13][19] - The highest tier consists of retail prices at brand stores, which include significant premiums for craftsmanship and branding [15][19] Consumer Behavior - The high retail prices have led consumers to adjust their purchasing strategies, opting for lighter, simpler designs or using "old for new" exchange methods rather than buying new high-weight jewelry [17][19] - The disparity in prices also affects the gold recycling market, where the recovery price for gold is significantly lower than retail prices, reflecting the loss of added value from branding and craftsmanship [16][19]

最新就业数据显示，美国截至2月14日当周初次申请失业金人数降至20.6万，创1月10日以来新 低，显著低于市场预期的22.5万，四周均值也小幅回落，印证美国劳动力市场仍具较强韧性。在 就业数据向好的同时，通胀担忧正重新升温，美伊局势紧张推高油价，成为通胀上行的潜在诱 因。美联储18日发布的最新会议纪要也显示，官员们普遍认为通胀虽将向2%的目标下行，但回落 步伐和时机存在不确定性，且进程可能更慢、更不均衡，持续的需求压力或令通胀维持高位，关 税对核心商品价格的影响虽或逐步减弱，但通胀高企的风险仍不容忽视。强劲的就业数据与升温 的通胀担忧形成共振，直接压制了市场对美联储的降息预期。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰近日收回了今年应大幅降息的主张。 美国最新经济数据陆续发布，美联储多位官员近期密集发声，货币政策立场呈现多元分歧。与此 同时，美联储内部在AI经济影响、机构独立性维护、政策工具调整等方面的讨论也成为市场关注 焦点。 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 在此背景下，美联储内部的货币政策立场出现明显变化，此前坚定的降息派立场显著软化。作为 ...