文字早评 2026/03/19 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、伊朗称部分海湾能源设施现已成为合法打击目标； 2、美国 2 月 PPI 环比上升 0.7% 明显高于预期；除食品和能源外的最终需求 PPI 同比增长 3.9%；预计 上升 3.7%； 3、自然资源部，四川冕宁、甘肃宕昌发现固体矿产，分别是稀土、萤石、重晶石、锑； 4、特朗普临时豁免《琼斯法案》，以应对国内能源价格飙升。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：18.01%/6.81%/12.13%/8.36%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：15.58%/9.31%/16.68%/10.68%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：24.20%/10.73%/19.82%/13.24%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：23.10%/2.63%/4.25%/4.32%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、核心 PCE 数据及就业基本符合预期，美联储降息预 期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升；国内出口韧性、PPI 连续收窄，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 110. ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% during the March FOMC meeting[4] - The Fed's internal divisions have slightly narrowed, with only one member voting for a 25 basis point rate cut[4] - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026-2028, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast adjusted to 2.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points[5][17] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed has increased its inflation forecasts, with the 2026 PCE and core PCE both projected at 2.7%, up by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from December 2025[16][17] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remains at 4.4%, while the 2027 forecast has been raised to 4.3%[17] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate hike is not the baseline scenario, emphasizing that current rates are at the high end of neutral[20] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.63% and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.46%[7][30] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to slightly above 4.25%[30] - Market risk appetite has slightly decreased due to uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation, which could impact inflation and economic growth[30][33]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the US-Iran conflict, and US tariff policies on the global economic environment and asset allocation strategies [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility**: The US tariff policies and the US-Iran conflict have significantly increased market volatility, necessitating a focus on stable assets like the US dollar, gold, and domestic commodities for investment [1][2][3]. 2. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: - The US dollar is recommended as a primary asset due to its strong position amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes [4][12]. - Gold is suggested as a secondary option due to its safe-haven demand, which tends to rise in times of uncertainty [4][12]. - Domestic commodities are highlighted for their potential upside, especially following favorable domestic policies post the Two Sessions [4][12][22]. 3. **Monetary Policy Implications**: The potential tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influenced by inflation and geopolitical factors, could lead to a tightening of global liquidity [5][11][18]. 4. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: The domestic equity market is influenced by both external disturbances and internal support, with a recommendation to focus on growth and cyclical sectors, particularly in infrastructure and AI-related industries [6][15][16]. 5. **US Stock Market Valuation**: The US stock market, particularly tech stocks, faces valuation pressures due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve policy changes, while energy and financial sectors may present better investment opportunities [7][17]. 6. **Long-term Interest Rate Trends**: The long-term nominal interest rates are expected to decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and potential deflationary risks from AI technology [8][18]. 7. **Commodity Market Influences**: The commodity market is affected by various factors, including Federal Reserve policy adjustments and geopolitical events, with the US-Iran conflict being a short-term dominant factor [19][20]. 8. **Investment Policy Post-Two Sessions**: The introduction of an additional 800 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to drive over 10 trillion yuan in medium to long-term investments, particularly benefiting the commodity market [22]. 9. **Price Trends in Industrial and Agricultural Products**: Industrial products are expected to benefit from high investment and stable oil prices, while agricultural products may see seasonal adjustments in demand post-Spring Festival [23]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The conference emphasized the importance of self-directed investment decisions by participants, highlighting the risks associated with market volatility and the need for careful asset allocation [2][3][10]. - The discussion included a legal disclaimer regarding the proprietary nature of the conference content and the responsibilities of participants in using the information provided [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities [1][4][5][8]. - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is a significant factor influencing the prices of many commodities, especially energy - related products. It may lead to supply disruptions and price fluctuations [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices rose slightly, while international silver prices fell. Domestic gold and silver prices also showed different trends [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Middle - East situation is tense, with gas field outages and drone attacks. Gold ETFs had a small outflow, and inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest reducing gold long positions and maintaining a bearish view on silver [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased, and the price of the alumina main contract increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the demand for aluminum products increased slightly. Alumina production capacity increased steadily [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Alumina prices may be slightly stronger in the short term but face pressure on the upside [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices decreased, and lead prices increased. Inventories of both increased [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead market has a mixed fundamental situation, and the zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For zinc, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. For lead, adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Industrial Metals Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased, and trading volume and open interest increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand in related industries is improving [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is affected by macro events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and inventory is at a low level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate around 150,000 yuan, and the market is expected to rise after stabilizing [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly, and trading volume increased while open interest decreased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand showed a slow - recovery trend [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 - 45,000 yuan [2]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract increased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory increased, demand was weak in the short term, and supply decreased year - on - year. Steel mill profits were poor [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and try short - term short - selling of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract increased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was moderately weak, and there was a structural contradiction in inventory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract increased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - water production decreased, coke prices were adjusted downwards, and inventory was at a medium level [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and try short - term short - selling of the coking coal 2605 contract [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Global supply is expected to be abundant, and demand in the US is strong [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to crude oil prices and demand fulfillment [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices mostly fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Grain - selling pressure is not large, but the progress is slow. Inventory is low, and the spot price is dominated by the producing area [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has increased in the short term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the upward trend of crude oil in the short term [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rose due to ethanol production expectations and Indian production. Domestic production increased, and the market is affected by macro funds and policies [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton prices rose, and Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are concerns about drought in the US cotton - producing area, and domestic consumption has increased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a price range of 15,100 - 15,600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices were weak [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Futures prices of near - month contracts were weak, and spot prices fell slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong, and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - month futures prices are expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly, and the basis was weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is improving [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short term and short - sell at high prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The price of the V05 contract increased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, production is increasing, and inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest positive arbitrage [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The price of the FG05 contract decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is decreasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying glass and selling soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly, and the basis was weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is reduced, and demand is improving [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short term and short - sell at high prices in the medium - long term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iranian production and exports are affected, and the global supply is under pressure [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is improving [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short term and face weakening supply - demand in the long term [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The price of the sa05 contract decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is recovering, and demand is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloys, highlighting the importance of monitoring Middle - East supply issues for aluminum, cost increases for alumina, and the trend of cast aluminum alloys following electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is tense, which may impact the oil market, and high US inflation restricts the Fed's monetary policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,960 yuan, down 280 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 3,439 dollars, down 94 dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased [1]. - For alumina, the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 2,956 yuan, up 91 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume increased while the open interest decreased [1]. - For aluminum alloy, the closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 23,655 yuan, down 335 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest decreased [1]. Spot Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 1310,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LME aluminum ingot inventory is 445,300 tons, down 2,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit is 8,822.36 yuan [1]. - For alumina, the average domestic alumina price is 2,698 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises is - 53 yuan [1]. - For aluminum alloy, the price of Baotai ADC12 is 24,700 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of three locations is 35,327 tons, down 8 tons [1]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic News - Trump claims the US military launched a "violent air - strike" on Iran's Kharg Island, an important oil - export hub. Retired US officers warn that the attack may lead to "out - of - control" oil prices. Iran threatens to destroy all US - related facilities in the region if attacked [2]. - US inflation is stubborn. The core PCE price index increased by 3.1% year - on - year in January, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the next monetary policy meeting [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [2].

Inflation Overview - February CPI in the U.S. rose by 2.4% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, the slowest growth in five years, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[5][6] Inflation Trends - Overall and core inflation trends are stabilizing, confirming a downward trajectory, with energy inflation rebounding and food inflation slightly rising[4][6] - Energy prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year in February, ending a previous negative growth trend, while food prices rose by 3.1%[7][8] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods inflation decreased to 1.0% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in core inflation[8] - Core services inflation remained stable at 2.93% year-on-year, with housing prices steady at 3.0%[8] Future Projections - March CPI is expected to exceed expectations due to base effects and geopolitical factors, with oil prices rising approximately 30% since late February[11][15] - Core inflation may see marginal increases, but sustained upward pressure is limited by various factors, including consumer demand disparities[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts in the second half of 2026 depending on geopolitical and economic conditions[14][16] - Despite potential inflation spikes, the Fed will not adjust monetary policy aggressively due to the external nature of the inflation drivers[15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.73%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 0.41%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.19%, and Palladium's main contract closed with a change of 0.07%. The short - term safe - haven situation is that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have led to a global chain reaction, with the world facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term. The US employment in February unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; palladium's short - term demand still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be strongly volatile in the short term, weakly volatile at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]. - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $5198.70 per ounce, up 0.97% from the previous day and 1.95% from last week; London gold closed at $5209.70 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 3.50% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) closed at 1151.98 yuan per gram, up 0.17% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week; Gold T + D (SGE) closed at 1150.30 yuan per gram, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 0.23% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold position was 409,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), up 0.67% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract position (SHFE) was 107,728 lots (1 kg per lot), down 3.61% from the previous day and 14.78% from last week; Gold T + D position (SGE) was 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 0.38% from the previous day and up 1.92% from last week. LBMA inventory was 9,158 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,048 tons, down 1.48% from last week; Shanghai Gold (SHFE) inventory was 105 tons, unchanged [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [4]. - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $88.57 per ounce, up 1.40% from the previous day and 7.62% from last week; London silver closed at $88.53 per ounce, up 6.09% from the previous day and 8.88% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) closed at 22,256 yuan per kg, down 2.21% from the previous day and up 1.84% from last week; Silver T + D (SGE) closed at 21,999 yuan per kg, down 1.31% from the previous day and up 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver position was 113,326 lots (5000 ounces per lot), down 9.67% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract position (SHFE) was 3,065,280 lots (1 kg per lot), up 2.16% from the previous day and 20.34% from last week; Silver T + D position (SGE) was 2,860,266 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.11% from the previous day and 3.94% from last week. LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.70% from last week; Comex silver inventory was 10,739 tons, down 2.78% from last week; Shanghai Silver (SHFE) inventory was 253 tons, down 18.12% from last week; SGE silver inventory was 372 tons, down 16.41% from last week; total visible inventory was 38,432 tons, down 1.11% from last week [4]. Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [6]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; Platinum's main contract (GFEX) closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and 1.25% from last week; Platinum (SGE) closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and 0.20% from last week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 51,840 lots (50 ounces per lot), down 1.43% from the previous day and 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, down 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [7]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and 3.91% from last week; Palladium's main contract (GFEX) closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 4,266 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 24.12% from the previous day and 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, down 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **US Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the Fed's total assets are $6,679.427 billion, up 0.00% from the previous period; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous period; the ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.48%, up 0.40% from the previous day and 3.33% from last week; the US dollar index is 98.93, up 0.22% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.13, down 0.00% from the previous day and 65.38% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.46, up 21.05% from the previous day and 53.33% from last week; the US - Europe yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 1.58, up 2.60% from the previous day and 100.00% from last week; the US - China yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 2.91, up 1.49% from the previous day and 2.40% from last week [8]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, down 0.30% from the previous period; CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, down 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.40% from the previous period; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, up 0.08% from the previous period; core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, up 0.17% from the previous period; the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation expectation is 3.40%, down 0.60% from the previous period; the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.30%, unchanged from the previous period [8]. - **US Economic Growth Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.50%, up 0.10% from the previous period; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 1.40%, down 3.00% from the previous period; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; non - farm payrolls monthly change is - 92,000, down 2.18% from the previous period; the labor force participation rate is 61.90%, up 0.20% from the previous period; the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%, up 0.10% from the previous period; weekly working hours are 34.30 hours, unchanged from the previous period; ADP employment is 63,000, up 52,000 from the previous period; the initial jobless claims for the week are 213,000, unchanged from the previous period; job vacancies are 6,038,000, unchanged from the previous period; Challenger job cuts are 48,300, down 60,100 from the previous period; the NAHB housing market index is 36.00, down 2.70% from the previous period [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, unchanged; new home sales are 570,000 units, up 7.02% from the previous period; new home starts are 1.022 million units, unchanged [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth is 2.08%, down 0.95% from the previous period; retail sales month - on - month growth is 0.03%, up 0.20% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth is 4.68%, down 0.59% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth is 0.43%, up 0.05% from the previous period; the personal savings as a percentage of disposable income is 3.60%, down 0.10% from the previous period [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth is 2.28%, up 0.98% from the previous period; the industrial production index month - on - month growth is 0.70%, up 0.45% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate is 76.21%, up 0.47% from the previous period; new orders for durable goods are $78.998 billion, unchanged; new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth is 6.03%, unchanged; exports year - on - year growth is 9.68%, up 39.69% from the previous period; exports month - on - month growth is 1.14%, unchanged; imports year - on - year growth is - 26.33%, up 2.36% from the previous period; imports month - on - month growth is 8.71%, unchanged; the trade balance is - $70.3 billion, down 32.55% from the previous period [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, down 0.20% from the previous period; the ISM services PMI index is 56.10, up 2.30% from the previous period; the Markit manufacturing PMI index is 51.20, down 0.70% from the previous period; the Markit services PMI index is 52.30, down 0.20% from the previous period; the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is 56.60, up 0.20% from the previous period; the small business optimism index is 98.80, down 0.50% from the previous period; the US investor confidence index is 7.20, down 6.00% from the previous period [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, up 0.09% from the previous period; the US gold reserves are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves are 36,458.24 tons, unchanged [10]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, down 2.53% from the previous period; the euro's share is 21.13%, up 5.61% from the previous period; the RMB's share is 2.12%, down 0.03% from the previous period; the global share is 25.94%, up 3.58% from the previous period [10]. - **Gold/Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's gold as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves is 8.34%, up 4.06% from the previous period; the US's is 81.98%, up 1.08% from the previous period [10]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 394.17, down 13.02% from last week; the VIX index is 24.93, down 2.24% from the previous day and up 5.77% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 348.03, down 2.48% from the previous day and up 6.21% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.8893, down 0.47% from the previous period [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate at different meetings from March 2026 to December 2027 are provided in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.80%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 7.11%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.26%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.02% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk of the trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment unexpectedly decreased in February and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes showed that there are huge differences among decision - makers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the interest - rate - cut supporters and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are approaching the end, and the next interest rate cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from the previous week; the London gold price is $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 1139.96 yuan per gram, up 0.13% from the previous day and down 4.96% from the previous week [2]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 93,020, an increase of 5,115, with a daily ratio of 31.26%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 9,388, a decrease of 218, with a daily ratio of 3.15% [2][3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors should sell high and buy low. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.35 per ounce, up 3.13% from the previous day and down 2.53% from the previous week; the London silver price is $83.45 per ounce, up 1.34% from the previous day and down 11.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 22,758 yuan per kilogram, up 5.62% from the previous day and up 5.14% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 22,290 yuan per kilogram, up 4.70% from the previous day and up 4.03% from the previous week [4]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 91,191, a decrease of 483, with a daily ratio of 18.53%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 108,137, a decrease of 2,122, with a daily ratio of 21.98% [4][5]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from the previous week; the London platinum price is $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from the previous week; the closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from the previous week; the closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from the previous week [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from the previous week; the London palladium price is $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from the previous week; the closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from the previous week [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **US Economic Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, the Fed's total assets are $6679.427 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44, the US dollar index is 98.71, etc. [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, etc. [8]. - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 597.47, the VIX index is 25.50, the CRB commodity index is 356.89, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9243 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range from March 2026 to December 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

Employment Data Summary - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[7] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating a slight increase in joblessness[8] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62%, reflecting a decline in workforce engagement[8] Sector Performance - The service sector lost 61,000 jobs, with notable declines in education and healthcare services (-34,000) and leisure and hospitality (-27,000)[10] - The goods-producing sectors also saw job losses, with manufacturing down by 12,000 and construction by 11,000[10] - Only wholesale (+6,000) and retail (+2,000) sectors showed minor job gains during this period[10] Economic Indicators - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining stable compared to previous months[8] - The three-month moving average for new jobs is approximately 6,000, suggesting a weakening employment trend[7] - Job openings, as indicated by the JOLTS report, dropped from 4.2% to 3.9%, signaling a decline in hiring demand[7] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include escalation of the Iran conflict, unexpected weakness in U.S. employment data, and rising inflation pressures[4] - The market is currently pricing in a low probability of interest rate cuts at 3.6%, despite the weak employment data[7] - If unemployment continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may shift back towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic trends in the U.S., highlighting a decline in non-farm employment and a significant rise in oil prices, alongside various market reactions and fiscal data [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, which is significantly below expectations [4][89]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 52.4, indicating steady growth in manufacturing activity, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reached 56.1, the highest since July 2022, suggesting strong service sector performance [4][91]. - Retail sales in January fell by 0.2%, marking the first negative growth since October of the previous year, primarily due to declines in automotive, gas station, electronics, and clothing sales [4][94]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.0% during the week, with most sectors, including materials and consumer staples, experiencing declines [3][5]. - Brent crude oil prices surged by 27.9% to $92.7 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased by 35.6% to $90.9 per barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions [3][47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.3% to 98.96, while the offshore RMB depreciated to 6.90 against the dollar [3][31]. Group 3: Fiscal Data - As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. was $393.3 billion, down from $491.0 billion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $1.5131 trillion [4][71]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $847 billion, indicating a reduction in liquidity [4][65]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 18 basis points to 4.15%, reflecting increased borrowing costs [4][19]. - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 307.5 basis points to 31.28% [4][25].