特朗普政府已加速美联储新主席的遴选进程，美国财政部部长贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单，包括 白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、美联储现任理事沃勒、美联储副主席鲍曼及贝莱德高管里克 ·里德，这些候选人的货币政策倾向各异，但整体上偏向宽松。值得注意的是，贝森特特别指出美联储 新主席人选可能在2025年圣诞节前公布，这一"提前官宣"若成真，将在很大程度上架空现任主席鲍威 尔，使2026年上半年的货币政策决策陷入"双头领导"的混乱局面。 与此同时，美联储高层再现重要人事变动。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克于11月12日意外宣布，将在2026 年2月任期结束时退休。作为"鹰派"代表人物，博斯蒂克一直主张在可预见的未来维持利率不变，直至 看到"明确证据"显示通胀持续回落至2%。由于即将卸任，他将不再参与联邦公开市场委员会的利率决 策投票。 转自：期货日报 2025年贵金属市场表现令人瞩目，在全球宏观政策变革与地缘动荡中彰显独特价值。美联储政策预期的 反复及领导层面临更迭成为主导黄金价格的核心变量，其利率路径的不确定性持续重塑黄金的金融属 性，推动金价在波动中屡创新高。这不仅刷新了传统认知，更反映了全球格局深刻变革下资产配置 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

与此同时，美国失业率小幅上升至百分之四点四，较八月上升零点一个百分点。失业率的上升部分是由于近五十万人进入劳动力市场寻找工作。 从行业来看，美国医疗领域新增约四点三万个工作岗位，餐饮服务行业增加约三点七万人，社会援助服务也增长约一点四万人。与之形成对比的是，运输和 仓储业就业人数减少约两点五万人，公共部门就业继续呈现下降趋势。 在延迟近七周后，美国劳工部近日发布了九月就业报告。数据显示，当月非农就业人数增加十一点九万人，不仅显著高于经济学家预期的五万人，更创下自 四月以来的最大单月增幅。 这份姗姗来迟的报告同时大幅修正了此前两个月的就业数据。八月非农就业人数从最初公布的新增两点二万人被下调至减少四千人，七月数据也从七点九万 人下修至七点二万人。经过修正，七、八两月美国累计就业人数较此前报告减少三点三万人。 这份就业报告的发布因美国历史上最长的政府停摆而被推迟，原定于十月三日公布。政府停摆还导致劳工部无法发布十月份的完整就业报告，十月美国非农 数据将推迟至十二月十六日与十一月报告一并发布。 数据发布的延迟给美联储的政策决策带来了挑战。美联储将于十二月九日至十日召开今年的最后一次货币政策会议，届时将无法获得及时的 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...

只要就业和通胀数据保持稳定，不再出现反复波动的情况，市场对于美联储货币政策路径的迷茫和困惑 就会迅速消散。届时，资金的关注焦点将重新聚焦到美国巨额财政赤字长期恶化的问题上。而这一因 素，恰恰是孕育黄金长期牛市最为肥沃的土壤，为黄金价格的持续上涨提供了坚实的基础。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 据相关数据显示，目前全球央行平均黄金储备占比约为20%。而作为全球重要经济体的中国，其黄金储 备占比仅为8%。值得注意的是，几乎所有央行都将黄金储备的目标设定在了30%！这一目标的明确， 意味着在未来几年内，还将有数千吨的黄金被各国央行收入囊中。如此大规模的扫货行为，无疑将对黄 金市场的供需关系产生深远的影响，使得供需天平彻底向多头一方倾斜，为黄金价格的走势提供了强大 的支撑。 今年，黄金ETF持仓量出现了惊人的增长，增幅高达17%。这一现象的背后，是越来越多的投资者对传 统投资理念的重新审视。在高通胀时代，传统的"60%股票+40%债券"投资组合显得力不从心，难以有 效抵御通货膨胀带来的风险。因此，投资者们开始寻求新的投资策略，将目光投向了黄金、白银、铜、 原油等具有硬资产属性的投资品种，以期通过对这些资产的配置，实现对冲 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillation trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed an oscillating market, ranging from around 85,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed an oscillating trend, with the contract price running around 10,660 - 10,848 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - The minutes of the Fed's October monetary policy meeting showed that due to the moderate economic expansion and the gradual cooling of the labor market without a sharp deterioration, Fed officials had obvious differences on whether to further cut interest rates in December. There were also differences in opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some officials thought that without considering the impact of tariffs, the current inflation level was close to the Fed's target value, while more officials believed that the overall inflation level had been continuously higher than the target value and there were few signs that it could fall back to the 2% target level in a timely and sustainable manner [5][14][47]. - CME's "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 29.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 70.2%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 49.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 36.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 14.5% [5][15][47]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,870 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 85,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 86,490 yuan/ton, 86,460 yuan/ton, 86,600 yuan/ton, and 86,570 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - As of November 21, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained around a rise of 60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [18]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of November 20, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.82 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.37 US cents/pound. As of October 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [24]. - As of October 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [30]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of November 21, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,603 tons, an increase of 1,196 tons from the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 17,375 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6%. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 398,513 tons, an increase of 6,835 tons from the previous trading day [34]. - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 112,200 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 17,200 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 45,600 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [34].

黄金价格在亚洲交易时段持平。 现货黄金持稳于每盎司4，065.09美元。 StoneX旗下Forex.com的市场 分析师Julian Pineda在一份评论中写道，在美国就业数据公布后，市场对美联储下一步货币政策举措的 预期正在转变，由此产生了一种"犹豫不决"的情绪。不过，他补充说，各国央行对黄金的需求依然稳 健。他表示，这两者的结合似乎正在推动金价长期保持中性。他补充说："如果这种动态持续下去，金 价的犹豫走势短期内可能会持续。" 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path despite the delay in the September employment report, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming December 10th rate cut decision is almost certain, with market focus shifting from "whether to cut" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% [2] Inflation Outlook - Goldman Sachs sees limited upside risks for further rate cuts based on optimistic interpretations of recent inflation data, with core PCE inflation remaining around 2.8% in September [3] - The baseline scenario anticipates a slowdown in the easing pace in the first half of 2026, with potential pauses in January and additional cuts in March and June to ensure rates return to neutral levels [3] Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000, there are growing downside risks in the labor market, with potential employment growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [4] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [4] - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially prompting the Fed to consider more rate cuts in the future [4] Market Valuation - Despite the absence of excess spending from a fundamental perspective, the stock market has already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [5]

来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of economic data and Federal Reserve policies in determining future trends in the gold market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the end of the week, spot gold closed at $4,064.90 per ounce, down $12.41 or 0.31% for the day and down $20.21 or 0.49% for the week [1]. - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, with a strong support level at $4,000 per ounce and initial resistance at $4,100 [1][2]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices showing a "roller coaster" pattern, briefly dipping below $4,000 before rebounding [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The market perceives a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut next month, but economists suggest a more uncertain outlook [2]. - Recent employment data indicates a trend of job cuts, with an average of 2,500 employees laid off weekly in the private sector [2]. - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes suggest a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with concerns that further cuts could risk inflation [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a phase of adjustment after reaching a historical high of $4,381, with a potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [3][5]. - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices oscillating between $4,000 and $4,100, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Strategies for trading gold include short positions around $4,100 and long positions near $4,000, with specific stop-loss measures recommended [5].