来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月12日｜市场预计同比通胀率约为2.8%，且政府停摆结束后数据收集已恢复正常，标普500 ETF（SPY）交易员正关注该数据如何影响美联储在2025年三次降息后的近期政策路径。 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal prices surged, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to a peak of $4612.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing over 5% to $83.905 per ounce [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to worsening global geopolitical relations, including explosions in Kyiv, U.S. military considerations against Iran, and increased tensions in the Red Sea [2][3] - The VIX index spiked by 18%, indicating a surge in risk-averse investments flowing into gold [2] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with analysts predicting significant upward potential for gold prices in the medium to long term due to factors like global debt cycles and geopolitical instability [3][4] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the World Gold Council indicating that they will remain net buyers through 2025 [4] - As of December 2025, China's official gold reserves are reported to be 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.32 tons), an increase of 86,000 ounces from the previous year [4] Group 3 - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may create additional uncertainty in the market, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and further boosting gold prices [5][6] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and potential political pressures could lead to more dovish monetary policy, impacting interest rates and gold demand [6] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are expected to remain high, there are risks associated with liquidity changes that could lead to significant price adjustments [8] - The current market sentiment is highly bullish, but caution is advised due to the potential for volatility in precious metal prices [9][10]

高盛经济学家近日发布报告指出，多项积极因素有望在今年共同提振美国经济。这些因素包括正在推行的减税政策、居民实际薪资的持续增长以及不断积累 的家庭财富。该机构同时预测，在经济增长的同时，通胀压力也将进一步趋于温和。 在通胀方面，高盛预测核心通胀指标将在年底前回落至接近长期目标的水平，显示出价格增长持续缓和的趋势。就业市场方面，其基准预测是失业率将保持 相对稳定。不过报告也警示，企业未来可能借助人工智能等技术优化成本，这或会带来一段时期"无就业增长"的潜在风险。 此外，报告还认为，美国可能在贸易政策上采取更为审慎的态度，避免进一步大幅提高关税。梅里克尔还强调，在减税与实际收入增长的双重支持下，消费 者支出预计将稳步增长。得益于更为宽松的金融环境、政策不确定性降低以及税收激励，企业投资有望成为推动年度经济增长的最强劲动力。 布米普特拉北京投资基金分析师认为，近期公布的美国就业市场数据呈现出复杂信号，新增非农就业人数略低于市场预期，而失业率则与预期基本相符。在 该数据公布后，市场对美联储短期内降息的预期概率有所调整。目前，市场目光正聚焦于美联储即将召开的新一期会议，根据相关利率观测工具显示，市场 普遍预期本次会议将维 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月12日16时47分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨2.57%，沪银主力收涨14.42%，铂金主力收涨4.65%，钯金主力收涨涨3.59%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美联储主席 鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查这一"黑天鹅"事件，直接动摇了货币政策独立性与美元信用基石，导致长期通胀预期脱锚。特 朗普政府正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国 12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速， 低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已 处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and industry dynamics, leading to a positive outlook for the lead market [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai lead futures market saw an increase, with the main contract closing at 17,440 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan or 0.72% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,057.5 USD, an increase of 11 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market rose to 17,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by seasonal maintenance and slow release of new capacity, leading to limited growth in primary lead production [2]. - Recycled lead production is also affected by tight raw material supply and high costs, with some companies planning early holidays [2]. - The global visible inventory of lead has dropped to historical lows, increasing price sensitivity to supply disruptions or demand recovery [2]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The lead industry is characterized by a "tight upstream and stable downstream" structure, with profits concentrated in the resource sector due to tight supply and low processing fees [3]. - The midstream smelting sector faces increased competition and pressure from raw material costs and environmental regulations, leading to higher industry concentration [3]. - Downstream battery manufacturers are experiencing pressure on profit margins due to high raw material prices and elevated finished goods inventory [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term support for lead prices is expected from improved macro sentiment, geopolitical risk premiums, low industry inventory, and tight supply conditions [4]. - Long-term price trends will depend on key variables such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, developments in geopolitical risks, and sustained demand growth in the energy storage sector [4]. - There is a need to be cautious of potential resistance from downstream sectors and changes in market sentiment following rapid price increases [4].

展望2026年，印尼卢比更可能维持区间震荡格局，而非呈现单边走势。一方面，美元周期尚未完全转 向、地缘与政策不确定性犹存，制约其持续升值空间；另一方面，印尼相对稳健的宏观经济基本面、审 慎灵活的货币政策框架以及充足的外汇储备，为汇率稳定提供了有力支撑，系统性失序风险总体可控。 外部冲击频仍 2025年印尼卢比经受压力测试 新华财经雅加达1月12日电（记者冯钰林）2025年，在全球金融环境不确定性加剧、主要经济体货币政 策显著分化的背景下，印尼卢比经历了一轮对新兴市场韧性的现实压力测试。全年美元兑印尼卢比汇率 虽呈现阶段性波动，但未演变为趋势性失序，反映出外部冲击与国内基本面支撑之间的动态博弈。 2025年，美元兑印尼卢比全年累计上涨2.74%。印尼卢比在亚洲主要新兴市场货币中表现偏弱，但未出 现失控式下跌。据市场统计，2025年美元兑印尼卢比汇率在15785至16974区间内波动，年内最大振幅接 近11%。星展银行与三菱日联银行在年度报告中指出，尽管印尼卢比相对疲软，其汇率波动整体处于有 序、可控范围内。 官方数据显示，2025年一季度印尼GDP同比增长4.87%，二季度回升至5.12%，三季度小幅回落至 5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].

Core Insights - The international gold price experienced a significant increase in 2025, with an annual rise of nearly 70%, marking the largest annual increase since the 1979 oil crisis [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, as well as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current upward trend in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with a rise of approximately 18% that year [1] - By 2024, international gold prices surpassed $2800 per ounce, with a yearly increase of about 27%, and in 2025, prices broke through $3000 in March and $4000 in October, reaching nearly $4600 by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices also rose significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks, such as the US tariff war, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - Central banks globally have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [2] - From early 2025 to late November, global central banks reported a net purchase of 297 tons of gold, indicating robust demand [2] Group 3: Broader Precious Metals Market - The rise in international gold prices has also led to substantial increases in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% [3] - The strong performance of gold has activated a rotation in the precious metals sector, attracting capital into silver and platinum group metals [3] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, has also supported price increases [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by factors such as the direction of US monetary policy, ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical developments, and the stability of the US dollar credit system [3] - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by multiple interwoven forces and dynamic balance, with persistent structural demand from investors and central banks likely to support prices [3]

受持续的市场避险需求推动，贵金属价格全周上涨，其中纽商所黄金期货主力合约价格上涨3.96%，纽 商所白银期货主力合约价格上涨11.72%。9日美国三大股指集体收涨，全周累计上涨，欧洲三大股指集 体上涨。 9日美国三大股指集体收涨 全周累计上涨 当地时间本周五，美国劳工统计局公布去年最后一个月的非农就业报告，去年12月美国非农新增就业人 数低于预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，就业数据好坏参半、美股风险偏好回归，再加上多家芯片制造商 股价上涨的提振，美国三大指数本周五集体收涨，其中道指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨幅0.65%，纳指涨 0.81%。从周线上看，美股芯片板块本周强势上涨，提振了市场情绪，美国三大股指集体上涨，其中道 指累计涨2.32%，标普500指数上涨1.57%，纳指上涨1.88%。 美国去年12月非农就业人数增加5万人 年度增幅创2020年以来新低 大宗商品方面，因市场担忧国内抗议活动不断的伊朗原油产量可能中断，以及俄罗斯原油出口受限，地 缘政治紧张局势与供应风险双重因素的推动下，国际油价延续前一日的涨势。截至本周五收盘，纽约商 品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格涨2.35%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特 ...

美国非农数据作为反映美国经济活力的"晴雨表"，其公布不仅直接影响市场对经济前景的判断，更深度 关联美联储政策走向与全球资产价格波动，结合2026年1月8日市场聚焦的非农报告及相关背景，可从以 下维度解读核心信息（观点仅供参考）： 首先，非农数据是判断美国经济"软着陆"进程的关键标尺。数据包含的非农就业人数、失业率、平均时 薪三大核心指标，分别对应就业市场热度、劳动力供需平衡与薪资通胀压力——若12月新增就业如预期 增至7.3万人（高于11月的6.4万人）、失业率降至4.5%，则印证美国劳动力市场仍具韧性，说明经济在 美联储此前降息后未出现大幅衰退，支撑"软着陆"预期；反之，若新增就业不及预期或失业率超预期上 升，可能揭示经济增长动能减弱，引发市场对衰退风险的担忧。 ADP就 业人数，来源：tradingeconomics 尤其此次非农报告是美国政府43天停摆后首份按时出炉的就业数据，数据"真实性与完整性"显著提升， 其参考价值远超此前受数据空缺影响的替代指标（如ADP数据），能更精准反映当前经济真实状态。 其次，非农数据直接左右美联储货币政策路径，进而影响全球流动性预期。作为美联储制定利率政策的 核心参考指标 ...