研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,394 | +84↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1600476 | +4222↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -61,951 | -27581↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -16 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 60454 | -293↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 170 | +7↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,440.00 | +80.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | +80.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +80.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].

1. Hot News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments have deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. The central fourth steering group also called for regulating the industry's competition order [2] - The Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xie Shaofeng, pointed out that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials have been released. Plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, as well as an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automobile industry, will be issued [2] - EU member states have officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India, banning activities related to the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [2] - The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project involves building 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will optimize the option settlement price business from July 22, using the SVI volatility model to calculate the settlement price [3] 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils are the sectors to focus on [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.91%, precious metals 28.64%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.63%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.79% [4] Commodity Sector Funds - The data shows the percentage changes in commodity sector funds, but specific changes for each sector are not clearly described [4] Commodity Futures Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data for each sector are not clearly described [6] 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% daily, 2.61% monthly, and 5.45% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33% daily, 3.13% monthly, and 23.76% annually. Other indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX, etc., also have corresponding performance data [8] Fixed - income - 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 0.12% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually [8] Commodity - The CRB commodity index rose 0.62% daily, 2.97% monthly, and 3.17% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.31% daily, rose 3.58% monthly, and fell 6.38% annually [8] Others - The US dollar index fell 0.18% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and fell 9.24% annually; the CBOE volatility index fell 0.67% daily, 1.91% monthly, and 5.42% annually [8]

| 甲醇日评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 変化值 | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/18 | 指标 | 单位 | (绝对值) | (相对目) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2438.00 | -4.00 | -0.16% | | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2364.00 | -0.04% | 2365.00 | -1.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2373.00 | -0.34% | -8.00 | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2387.50 | -0.10% | -2.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2385.00 | 15.00 | 0.63% ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance with major indices rising, particularly in sectors such as electrical engineering, industrial machinery, chemical raw materials, building materials, and construction [1] - The building materials ETF (516750) experienced a significant increase, reaching a peak rise of 7.88% during trading, with a current increase of 7.11% and trading volume exceeding 66 million yuan [1] - A total of 16 central enterprises signed investment agreements for 75 industrial projects in Tibet, amounting to 317.537 billion yuan, focusing on urgent needs in clean energy, green minerals, electricity communication, and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The construction materials ETF (516750) closely tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, reflecting the overall performance of stocks in the building materials industry [2] - The process of "de-involution" in industries such as petrochemicals and building materials may present significant investment opportunities [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 21 日 铜：情绪良好，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,440 | 0.76% | 79040 | 0.76% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,795 | 1.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 54,825 | 19,103 | 141,769 | 3,763 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 15,349 | 4,066 | 267,000 | -1,603 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 38,239 | -3,900 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 122,175 | 25 | 11.52% | 2.35% | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. Also, focus on the movement of stop - profit funds [14]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short bonds at high prices or use treasury bond futures to reduce duration as the capital market may not reach 1.3%, and the capital situation remains uncertain [15]. - For steel and ore, steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and volatile in the medium - term [18]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to specific policies later [20]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices and manage positions carefully [21]. - For soda ash and glass, for soda ash, consider short - selling at high prices when the market atmosphere weakens; for glass, long - position holders at low levels can continue to hold and stop profit flexibly when the atmosphere weakens [23]. - For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short - sell aluminum at high prices and take a wait - and - see approach for alumina in the short - term, and short - sell at high positions appropriately [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and polysilicon is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. - For cotton, it is recommended to hold or exit the long - near and short - far strategy carefully [30]. - For sugar, it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [33]. - For eggs, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to stop - loss, and focus on the short - 09 and long - 01 reverse spread combination in the long - term [35]. - For apples, it is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. - For corn, participate in the short - term as the price follows the spot and is slightly stronger, and pay attention to the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. - For red dates, it is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term as the spot price is uncertain and the market is in intense long - short competition [40]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [43]. - For fuel oil, its price is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [45]. - For plastics, consider holding put options or slightly short - selling as the supply - demand situation is weak despite short - term emotional rebounds [46]. - For methanol, it is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options as it is expected to be weakly volatile [47]. - For caustic soda, maintain a long - position strategy [48]. - For asphalt, it follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger [49]. - For the polyester industry chain, do not chase the long - position, and consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. - For pulp, it is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude under the 09 emotional expectation, and the long - spot holders can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. - For logs, be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. - For urea, consider buying at low prices as the export quota may increase [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automobile industry [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation between China and the US is the right path [10]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have deployed work to standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has summoned three platform companies, including Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, to regulate their promotional activities [10]. - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the macro - economic situation in the first half of 2025, with some members making suggestions on various aspects [11]. - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals [11]. - Yushu Technology has initiated IPO counseling, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution [11]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in July reached a five - month high, while the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [11]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates [12]. - US President Trump filed a defamation lawsuit against News Corp, Dow Jones, Rupert Murdoch, and two Wall Street Journal reporters, seeking at least $10 billion in compensation [12]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent, during a visit to Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but there are still significant differences, especially regarding the 25% tariff on automobiles [12]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The market sentiment was maintained on Friday, with a slight intraday adjustment followed by a rise. The main broad - based indexes have risen for four consecutive weeks. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds as margin trading funds continue to increase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital price during the tax period was high and tight. After the tax period ended on Friday, the capital situation did not ease significantly, and the central bank's net open - market operation (OMO) investment decreased significantly. The market interprets the central bank's draft for comments as beneficial to short - term bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and short - term bond yields have declined [15]. Black Steel and Ore - Steel prices are affected by policies and supply - demand. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has weakened marginally. However, the supply is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to be volatile in the medium - term and slightly stronger in the short - term [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coal mines is recovering slowly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported by stable pig iron production. In the medium - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow as mines resume production [20]. Ferroalloys - The manganese and silicon alloy market is affected by macro - level positive news and weakening fundamentals. It is not recommended to chase long - positions, and it is advisable to short - sell at high prices with proper position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be in surplus in the long - term, and the short - term trend depends on the market atmosphere. For glass, pay attention to the linkage between the futures and spot markets and the improvement of terminal orders [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, due to the deadlock in Trump's tariff negotiations and weak demand, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices. For alumina, the short - term policy sentiment may be short - lived, and it is advisable to short - sell at high positions [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to supply - side disturbances, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term as the market is sensitive to positive news [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to improved supply - demand and positive policies. Polysilicon has a strong expectation but weak reality, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by low inventory and weak consumption. Pay attention to the macro - situation, supply - demand changes, and the impact of USDA reports [30]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are affected by low domestic inventory and expected increases in imported sugar. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025 - 26 season [33]. Eggs - Eggs are in a seasonal rising period, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the price increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and focus on the long - short spread strategy [35]. Apples - In the off - season of apple consumption, early - maturing apples are priced high. It is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. Corn - Corn prices follow the spot and are slightly stronger. Pay attention to the substitution of wheat, the release of imported corn, and the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. Red Dates - Red dates are in the physiological fruit - dropping period. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. Live Pigs - The short - term spot price is uncertain. The supply may decrease in the second half of July, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is accelerating supply recovery, but the demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic slowdown. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation [43]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser due to factors such as the change in the demand structure and inventory accumulation [45]. Plastics - The supply of polyolefins is under pressure, and the demand is weak. Although there may be short - term emotional rebounds, it is advisable to consider put options or short - selling [46]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to be weakly volatile as the port inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options [47]. Caustic Soda - With the decline in the price of liquid chlorine and a relatively strong macro - market, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [48]. Asphalt - It follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the production is expected to decrease in August [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market sentiment is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. It is not recommended to chase long - positions. Consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude. Pay attention to port de - stocking and spot trading. Holders of spot can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. Logs - The apparent demand is good, and the spot valuation is low. Be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. Urea - With the possible increase in the export quota, it is recommended to buy at low prices. The futures price is strongly affected by the overall commodity market [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities and price trends for various commodities: - **Iron Ore**: Macro - expectations support, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 1 [4][5]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [8][9][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [13][15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has one round of price increase implemented, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends; coking coal shows a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensities are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [16][18]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, with stable and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 0 [20][23]. - **Logs**: Wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 1 [24][27]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, price trends, and macro - industry news of various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price trends and trend intensities for each commodity, helping investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). The trading volume was 692,666 lots, a decrease of 10,578 lots. Imported ore prices showed some fluctuations, with the price of 65% Carajás fines rising by 3.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - industry News**: The China Iron and Steel Association organized a meeting to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" to prevent over - capacity risks [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.74%); the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.91%). Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [9]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for key industries. Steel production and inventory data showed some changes, and export volume decreased in June [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes and procurement price information for silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions, and manganese ore inventory changed [14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 926 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.82%); the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,518 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.07%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [16]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index [16][17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading volume. Southern port and domestic origin prices were provided, and the long - short positions of the top 20 members remained unchanged [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends, and the prices of various log products in the spot market remained stable [25]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [27].

工业和信息化部新闻发言人、运行监测协调局局长陶青在7月18日国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期将印 发机械、 汽车、 电力装备等行业稳增长工作方案，提升优质供给能力，优化行业发展环境。同时，工 业和信息化部将印发汽车行业数字化转型实施方案，落实机械和电力装备两个行业数字化转型实施方 案。 ...