Weekly Insights - The report highlights an increase in market disturbances due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, leading to heightened concerns over oil prices and inflation risks. However, the direct impact on China is considered limited, with the main concern being the risk of significant oil price increases. Historically, Middle Eastern conflicts have acted as catalysts for oil price fluctuations, but their effects tend to be short-lived due to the global economy's inability to sustain high oil prices for extended periods. Overall, the emotional impact of these conflicts on the market is greater than the actual economic implications [4][7]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, outlining four key policy directions: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. This is expected to lead to timely responses from local governments and facilitate a quicker adjustment in the real estate cycle, contributing to marginal improvements in economic performance [4][7]. Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments, the overall market trend remains a broad range-bound movement. The core factors driving the market are stable and improving fundamental expectations, with hopes for gradual policy and external improvements. The report anticipates a structural bull market to emerge in the third quarter, with 3,400 points identified as a significant resistance level. The transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in A-shares is underway, indicating a revaluation of Chinese assets from a global investment perspective [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high economic activity, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory. While there may be short-term adjustments in crowded small-cap stocks, the likelihood of a major cyclical downturn is low. The report remains optimistic about the performance of large-cap companies following the trends of small-cap stocks. Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, with an emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend stocks as long-term investment opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [6][9]. Market Data - The report notes a general upward trend in the market, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well. The weekly performance of major indices shows positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading at 2.32%, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.42% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.13% [10][12]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has outperformed other industries this week, indicating strong investor interest in this area [13]. - Market turnover rates have increased, suggesting a rise in trading activity, while margin financing balances have shown a decline, reflecting reduced market participation [15][17]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation levels in the market remain reasonable, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a notable increase. The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector valuations, highlighting significant variations across different industries [19][21]. - For instance, the electronics sector has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 58.6, while the real estate sector shows a negative P/E of -6.4, indicating substantial differences in market sentiment and performance expectations across sectors [21][22].

Group 1 - The national team has increased its investment in ETFs by 600 million yuan, indicating a long-term commitment to enhancing the A-share market's prosperity [1] - The national team's purchases of ETFs are aimed at injecting liquidity into the market, particularly through broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and SSE 50, to stabilize index fluctuations [1][2] - The expansion of ETF holdings to include technology-themed ETFs like the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index reflects a strategic support for emerging industries [1][2] Group 2 - The national team's actions have optimized market resource allocation, stabilizing valuations in key sectors and directing funds towards technology innovation and high-end manufacturing [2] - The increasing popularity of ETFs is accelerating the institutionalization of the A-share market, with a rising proportion of individual investors participating indirectly through ETFs [2] - The national team's ETF investments have improved market confidence and funding structure, providing a foundation for future market performance [2][3] Group 3 - The policy signals conveyed by the national team's ETF purchases are reshaping global investors' perceptions of Chinese assets, with international institutions raising target levels for indices like MSCI China and CSI 300 [3] - The ongoing expansion of ETF scales and market ecology will further amplify the qualitative effects of national team investments, becoming a significant force for A-share market prosperity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current global trend of de-dollarization is beginning, and Hong Kong, as one of the best offshore markets in Asia, is expected to see a revaluation of asset values [1] Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - The Hong Kong real estate market has undergone a prolonged adjustment and is now at a critical point of stabilization and recovery [1] - Despite facing short-term inventory destocking pressures, multiple positive factors such as potential appreciation of the Renminbi, spillover effects from the Hong Kong stock market, comprehensive policy relaxation, declining interest rates, and continuous inflow of talent from the mainland are expected to drive improvements in the Hong Kong real estate market [1] - The transaction volume and prices in the Hong Kong residential market are anticipated to stabilize and rebound starting in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Commercial Assets - Commercial assets are expected to benefit from an improvement in economic conditions, driven by enhanced consumer spending and a recovery in rental prices [1] - There is a positive outlook for the valuation recovery of local developers and commercial operating companies in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1: IPO Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a new wave of IPO activity, with total fundraising reaching HKD 145 billion in the past year, a year-on-year increase of 2.7 times [1][2] - The top ten IPOs, primarily from mainland companies, contributed 75% of the total fundraising, with notable leaders being CATL and Midea Group [2][3] - As of May 21, 2025, 76 new stocks have been listed, with 23 companies going public this year alone, raising a total of HKD 653 billion [2] Group 2: Key Players and Fundraising - CATL and Midea Group led the fundraising efforts with HKD 410 billion and HKD 356.66 billion respectively, marking them as the top fundraisers for 2024 and 2025 [2][4] - Other significant players in the second tier include Horizon Robotics, SF Express, and China Resources Beverage, each raising over HKD 50 billion [2][4] - The third tier consists of consumer-related companies like Mixue Group and Chifeng Gold, raising between HKD 20 billion and HKD 40 billion [3][4] Group 3: Globalization and Strategic Moves - Chinese companies are accelerating their global expansion through the "A+H" dual capital market strategy, which is crucial for their international growth [5][6] - Leading companies in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, are planning to list in Hong Kong to enhance their global presence [6][7] - The automotive sector is also seeing increased activity, with companies like Seres and Chery Motors planning to raise funds through IPOs in Hong Kong [8] Group 4: Capital Inflows and Market Dynamics - The weakening US dollar has led to increased capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, as investors seek to buy Chinese assets [9][10] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has injected over HKD 1.16 billion into the market to support the Hong Kong dollar, reflecting strong demand for stocks [9] - The successful IPOs of companies like CATL have created a "money-making effect," encouraging more mainland companies to pursue listings in Hong Kong [10] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong regulatory framework is evolving to facilitate the listing process for mainland companies, including the introduction of a "special line" for tech and biotech firms [11][12] - Recent changes have lowered the minimum requirements for H-share listings, making it easier for companies to access the Hong Kong capital market [12]

中国基金报记者李树超 5月20日，由中国基金报主办、深圳市金融稳定发展研究院协办的"首届全球资产管理论坛系列活动"在 深圳举办，该项活动以"大变局下的全球资产重估与配置"为主题，吸引了摩根资产管理、中保投资、汇 丰投资管理、招商银行、宏利投资、安联投资等国际资管机构高管、境内金融机构高管参与。 在贾飙看来，中国资产重估为保险资金带来了前所未有的配置机遇。 中保投资公司董事长贾飙出席活动，并发表了题为《资产重估背景下保险投资的应对策略》的主旨演 讲。 他在演讲中表示，大变局使资产重估不可逆，但也为保险资金等长期资本带来前所未有的配置窗口。唯 有坚守长期主义、拥抱创新、深耕社会价值，才能在波动中穿越周期，在重估中铸就新价值。 全球与中国资产面临价值重估 在演讲中，贾飙表示，从国际来看，世界正经历百年未有之大变局：一是全球经贸秩序的不确定性凸 显；二是地缘重塑下的产业链再造；三是人工智能改变产业底层逻辑。 其中，OpenAI、DeepSeek等AIGC行业趋势带来生产率预期上修，使数字经济与高端制造估值溢价分化 加大。科技革命和产业变革加速推进，人工智能、数字经济、绿色低碳等新兴产业快速崛起，深刻改变 着全球资产配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The breakthrough of DeepSeek technology is reshaping the narrative logic of the technology industry, leading to a wave of asset revaluation in the Chinese capital market, particularly in the AI sector, which is accelerating its growth trajectory [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Following the emergence of DeepSeek and Yushu Technology, Chinese tech stocks have entered a significant valuation recovery phase, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.74% in Q1 2025, outperforming global markets [2] - In the A-share market, the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 index surged by 10.69% in Q1 2025, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index increased by 3.42%, driven by the "AI+" trend [2] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing - The asset revaluation process is still in its early stages, with A-share valuations considered relatively low; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 12.3 times, significantly lower than major global indices [3] - The risk premium in the A-share market is currently 1.7 standard deviations above the long-term average, nearing historical extremes, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - Chinese AI development potential is not fully priced in, with leading tech companies' valuations significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts, particularly in the Hong Kong market where the Hang Seng Tech dynamic P/E ratio remains at historical lows [4] Group 3: AI Development - Domestic large models have narrowed the performance gap with international counterparts, with the release of DeepSeekR1 accelerating the progress of domestic models [5] - The demand for AI computing power is surging, with domestic AI chip shipments exceeding 820,000 units in 2024, capturing a 30% market share [6] - The application of AI is expanding rapidly across various sectors, with significant user engagement in consumer applications and increasing penetration in B2B scenarios [7] Group 4: Policy Support - National policies are driving the development of the AI industry, focusing on strategic planning, technological breakthroughs, and application scenarios, with local governments tailoring policies to enhance competitive advantages [8] - The A-share market's technology narrative is becoming clearer, with significant growth in sectors like biotechnology, renewable energy, and information technology, supported by favorable policies [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese stock market is at a critical juncture, transitioning from narrative reinforcement to narrative realization, with potential for a growth stock bull market if technological advancements and industry resilience are sustained [1][11] - The A-share market's technology narrative is expected to evolve through three phases: narrative reinforcement, realization, and upgrade, with the current phase characterized by structural recovery and low valuation tech leaders [11]

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand situation in the commercial real estate sector does not determine individual operational results, with the ability to outperform peers being crucial for success [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased external uncertainties are expected to boost the value of shopping centers as domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic foundation for new development [1] - Shopping centers are vital physical spaces for consumer activities, and recent government initiatives aim to enhance consumption infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Major brand shopping centers are outperforming retail sales and rental growth, with projected average sales growth of 16.4% and rental income growth of 16.6% for three leading companies in 2024 [2] - The same companies are expected to see same-store sales growth of 6.2% and same-store rental growth of 3.1%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Expansion and Management - The three leading companies plan to open a total of 47 new shopping centers in 2024, with significant investments in both light and heavy asset models [3] - The average same-store sales growth for these companies exceeds the industry average by 6.2 percentage points, showcasing the effectiveness of quality management [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - There are over 6,000 shopping centers in China, but only about 25% are managed by high-quality management companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage for these firms [4] - Established brands have geographical advantages in tenant selection and consumer behavior, which helps them maintain higher rental growth compared to the overall retail sector [4] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The development of various financial instruments like public and private REITs is driving the revaluation of commercial real estate assets, with a focus on stable cash flow properties [5] - The recognition of quality management platforms is expected to expand beyond first-tier cities by 2025, enhancing their market presence [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in global stock markets, attributing it to Trump's tariff policies and suggesting that while the market is experiencing turbulence, it is not a long-term threat [4][13]. Market Overview - On April 7, global stock markets, including China, experienced a severe downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 7.34% to 3096.58 points and the ChiNext Index dropping by 12.5% to 1807.21 points, marking its largest single-day decline in history [3]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 13.22% to 19828.30 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index plummeted by 17.16% to 4401.51 points [3]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Short-term market sentiment is characterized by high levels of trading activity and short-selling, with the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong exceeding 20%, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [46][48]. - The article suggests that the recent market movements are a result of profit-taking after a period of high investment activity [2]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends a defensive investment strategy in the short term, advising against using leverage when attempting to buy the dip [9][90]. - It emphasizes the importance of waiting for clearer signals before making significant investments, suggesting that the current market conditions are still uncertain [93]. Long-term Outlook - The article maintains a positive long-term outlook on Chinese assets, asserting that the revaluation of these assets is far from over, particularly in the technology and new consumption sectors [10][102]. - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the Chinese market, driven by domestic economic policies and the resilience of the Chinese economy [6][37]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector, particularly companies like Tencent, is viewed as undervalued and poised for recovery, with a significant portion of the market capitalization in Hong Kong now represented by technology and new consumption companies [51][54]. - The article also points to the military and gold sectors as strategic assets worth considering for investment, given the current geopolitical climate [109][111]. Conclusion - The article concludes with a call for confidence in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current turbulence presents an opportunity for strategic investment in high-growth sectors [116][87].

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market, several ETFs have seen increased investments as investors take advantage of the situation to accumulate positions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced a strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 30% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by more than 40% from January 14 to March 19 [3]. - However, from March 20 onwards, the Hang Seng Index has declined nearly 6%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped nearly 9% due to profit-taking and external factors such as potential tariff issues [3][4]. Group 2: ETF Inflows - Several ETFs tracking the Hong Kong market, including the Southern Eastern Hang Seng Tech ETF and the Amundi Hang Seng Tech ETF, have seen significant increases in their fund shares during the recent market adjustments [1][6]. - For instance, the Amundi Hang Seng Tech ETF's shares increased from 12.40 billion to 17.30 billion in just four trading days, reflecting a rise of 4.9 billion shares [6][8]. - Similarly, the Southern Eastern Hang Seng Tech ETF's shares rose from 76.83 billion to 78.28 billion, an increase of 1.45 billion shares over the same period [10]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Year-to-date, the net inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market has been robust, with significant investments in non-essential consumer goods (1.151 billion HKD), information technology (972 million HKD), and financials (749 million HKD) [4]. - The market's focus has been primarily on technology stocks, with sectors such as the internet, semiconductors, and AI showing particularly strong performance [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the underlying logic for the rise in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, with expectations of continued growth in quality growth stocks and a favorable macroeconomic environment [16]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is currently near historical averages, suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement as economic conditions improve and liquidity remains favorable [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market in the next 3 to 6 months, indicating an early stage of asset revaluation and gradual stabilization of fundamentals [3][8]. Core Insights - Economic data for January-February 2025 shows a stable start, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in retail sales, driven by online channels [3][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in the home furnishing sector starting from early March, with key recommended companies including Gujia, Xilinmen, and Sophia [3][15]. - The technology growth sectors, particularly in computing power, cloud computing, and AI applications, are identified as key investment themes [3][8]. - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities due to anticipated monetary policy easing after the second quarter [3][10]. - The commodity market is experiencing a mild recovery, with a strong outlook for non-ferrous metals and a bearish view on black metals [3][11]. Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with infrastructure investment up by 10% and manufacturing investment up by 9% [5]. - The real estate market shows a decline in investment, with a 9.8% year-on-year drop, but new housing prices are stabilizing [5][26]. - The retail sector shows a mixed performance, with essential goods maintaining growth while discretionary items like sports and office supplies perform well [3][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The beauty sector shows significant recovery, with online sales growth of 18% in January-February, highlighting strong performance from domestic brands [3][16][17]. - The dining and hotel industry is experiencing growth, with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales, although some brands face challenges [3][22][23]. - The agricultural sector, particularly in pork and poultry, is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption recovery, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs showing improved market share [3][24][25]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and companies with stable regional economic prospects for investment [3][21]. - In the construction materials sector, companies like China National Building Material and Anhui Conch Cement are recommended due to potential price increases [3][27][28]. - For the home improvement sector, companies such as Three Trees and North New Materials are highlighted for their expected demand recovery [3][29].