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氧化铝价格走势研判
2025-05-18 15:48
氧化铝价格走势研判 20250517 从三月底全行业开工水平 9,360 万吨,到目前 8,650 万吨区间,这一变化主要 源于多方面因素。三月份初期山西奥凯达铝业和森泽铝业因高价矿或自采矿不 足开始点式减产,但大型集团未有新进展。3 月下旬信发减少进口矿使用比例, 自主调整产能;4 月下旬国有集团企业在山西和河南两大四小工厂减产;5 月 第一周山西、山东和云南工厂受波及,全行业出现较大动荡。这些因素导致国 有集团企业在现货市场上购买紧张程度爆发,从而形成当前供应偏紧状态。 氧化铝生产成本上升的原因是什么? 摘要 • 氧化铝行业经历供应过剩到偏紧的转变,主要由于 3 月底至 5 月初期间, 山西奥凯达、森泽铝业及信发等企业陆续减产,国有集团企业也调动产能, 导致现货市场供应紧张,全行业开工水平从 9,360 万吨降至 8,650 万吨。 • 氧化铝生产成本持续上升,主要受矿石结构成本波动影响。国产矿供应紧 张导致进口矿使用增加,矿石价格从 1,460 元上涨至近 2000 元。各区域 成本差异显著,云南成本最低,广西成本较高,使用进口矿的企业成本与 山东沿海地区接近。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格下降至 70 美元/ ...
几内亚矿石扰动加剧,氧化铝期价反弹
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 12:15
有 色 金 属 原料:上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳,山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨,河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次入驻山 西地区,节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资源整合 及品位下降等影响,国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态,复产矿 山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面,市场成交处 于僵持阶段,矿石销售出现阶段性困难,几矿(45/3)暂时报价 70 美元/干吨。几内亚政府陆续撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题进 一步升级,Axis 矿区在前几日已经被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名 单。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公司,涉及产能约 4000 万吨/ 年,规模较大令市场对远期矿石供应担忧加剧。到货方面,期内 新到矿石 409.9 万吨,其中新到几内亚资源 324.2 万吨,澳大利 亚资源 80.5 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船运费小幅下降于 19 美元/吨。 周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石扰动加剧, 氧化铝期价反弹 [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] 氧化铝:震荡 报 ...
电解铝:需求存边际走弱预期但库存低位,铝价运行重心存下移风险
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 11:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].
几内亚矿价进一步降低,国内氧化铝新投现变数
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 11:42
周度报告—氧化铝 国内氧化铝新投现变数 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 氧化铝:震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 11 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿价进一步降低,国内氧化铝新投现变数 有 色 金 属 原料:上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道,山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨,河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次 入驻山西地区,节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资 源整合及品位下降等影响,国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态, 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面,大型 矿企对二季度长协价格做出修订,几内亚主流矿 45/3 价格下调 至 75 美元/干吨(CIF)。部分低品质散弹矿石报价到 72 美元/ 干吨。国内用户对该价格仍较排斥,远期价格有意压至 CIF 68-70 美元/吨。GIC 码头恢复作业,先前矿山积压库存开始陆续发出。 GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会 ...
铝价为何持续下跌?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-09 00:24
劳动节假期后,沪铝期货延续4月底的跌势且跌幅不断扩大,主力合约最低跌至19300元/吨。究其原 因,中信建投期货有色研究员王贤伟告诉期货日报记者,在市场不确定性较强的情况下,市场预期未来 的需求可能走弱,目前电解铝冶炼环节利润仍然较高,部分资金选择做空电解铝的冶炼利润。 新湖期货有色金属分析师孙匡文进一步表示,市场看空情绪一方面来自对后期消费的悲观预期,尤其 是"金三银四"旺季结束后,国内市场迎来消费淡旺季过渡期,而美国关税政策对出口的冲击也逐步显 现;另一方面,相对于其他金属冶炼的低利润甚至亏损,电解铝冶炼利润较高,做空冶炼利润也成为一 股较强的市场力量。 国投期货有色金属研究员刘冬博表示,近期电解铝市场供应维持在历史高位,而"金三银四"消费旺季进 入尾声,下游加工环节的开工率环比开始下滑。劳动节假期期间,铝锭、铝棒社会库存累积将近4万 吨,多地现货价格承压。成本端,几内亚铝土矿成交价格已经跌破80美元/吨且仍处于下行通道,氧化 铝行业大幅亏损并进入检修减产阶段。尽管前4个月铝市场表观消费增长近4%,明显超出市场预期,但 市场对后续下游需求的预期较为悲观。 市场人士:5月基本面或转弱 "目前铝市场基本面表现 ...
云铝股份(000807):Q1利润环比大增预计Q2利润继续提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 00:36
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in 2024, with a significant increase in aluminum production, but faced challenges in Q4 2024 due to a sharp decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, an increase of 27.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 592 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 59.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54.52% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 974 million yuan, down 16.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Production and Pricing - The increase in 2024 profits was primarily driven by higher production volumes, with aluminum production rising by 22.45% year-on-year to 2.9383 million tons [2]. - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,100 yuan per ton, up 42% from 2023, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,922 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina fell to 3,938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26% from the previous quarter, which is expected to positively impact profits in Q2 2025 [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, targeting an output of approximately 3.01 million tons [3]. - The financial condition is robust, with a significant reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 75.44% in 2018 to 23.97% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 11.76% in 2021 to 32.23% in 2024, with total cash dividends of 1.422 billion yuan, a growth of 78.26% from 2023 [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, with projected net profits of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.31 billion yuan, and 8.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 6, and 6 times [4]. - The company benefits from abundant green electricity in Yunnan province, with over 80% of its production electricity sourced from clean energy [4].
旺季余温尚存库存继续去化 沪铝价格偏强震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-05 23:19
4月29日,国内三地铝锭库存量51.2万吨,环比减少1.6万吨,铝棒加工费区间震荡,库存延续下滑。 现货市场,4月28日现货铝锭报价20010-20030元/吨,成交均价较上周一上涨70元/吨至20020元/吨,现 货维持平水,现货近期随盘面上涨。 对于后市沪铝价格走势,机构观点汇总如下: 截至2025年4月30日当周,沪铝期货主力合约收于19910元/吨,周K线收阴,持仓量环比上周减持11415 手。 上周(4月28日-4月30日)市场上看,沪铝期货周内开盘报19950元/吨,最高触及20055元/吨,最低下探 至19860元/吨,周度下跌0.60%。 沪铝市场消息回顾 5月2日,伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝库存411575吨,减少2000吨。 五矿期货:旺季背景下去库延续支撑,铝价或偏强震荡 国内政治局会议表态并未超预期,叠加美国"对等关税"政策预计较为反复,短期情绪面难言乐观。产业 上看国内电解铝产能增长幅度有限,电解铝价格跟随需求和需求预期波动,当前旺季背景下去库延续对 铝价支撑偏强,但假期临近下游备货需求预计有所减弱,铝价或偏震荡。 新湖期货:去库持续但宏观仍存不确定性,铝价偏强震荡 当前消费尚有韧性 ...
几内亚矿石下跌预期增强,氧化铝价格阶段企稳
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 11:42
周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石下跌预期增强, 氧化铝价格阶段企稳 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 氧化铝:震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 4 | 年 | 月 | 27 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿石下跌预期增强,氧化铝价格阶段企稳 有 色 金 属 原料:上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道,山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨(较上周下调 20 元/吨),河南的 58/5 的含税价格 为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。 矿山资源整合政策持续深化,部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全 等合规要求暂处停产状态,山西矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态, 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面,几内 亚矿(45/3)的成交价格进一步回落至 80 美元/干吨下方,价格 下跌幅度有所超预期。市场已呈现出明显的过剩态势,下游多数 企业对现货采购寥寥。GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会很快得到解决。 到货方面,期内 ...