沪指蛇年上涨25.58%，十大牛股出炉；日韩股市2月13日收盘下跌；烧碱主力合约日间盘收涨逾2%；华 胜天成获资金净流入21.53亿元；景顺：当前市场表现并非周期逆转或所谓的"AI泡沫"破裂；保德信： 若AI资本支出不如预期 经济前景或落在"缓慢前行"增长模式。 【市场回顾】 A股蛇年行情宣告收官。纵观全年行情，仅去年4月初指数遭遇短期波动，随后一路震荡上行，沪指最 终收于4000点上方。 2月13日，日韩市场主要股指收盘下跌。日经225指数跌1.21%报56941.97点，本周累计上涨4.96%。韩国 综合指数下跌0.28%报5507.01点，本周累计上涨8.21%。 2月13日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约跌多涨少，其中烧碱主力合约涨幅居前。截至15:00收盘，集运 指数（欧线）涨超3%，烧碱、碳酸锂、鸡蛋等涨超2%，苹果、双胶纸、焦炭等涨超1%，原木、工业 硅、菜粕等微涨；跌幅方面，沪锡跌超7%，沪银跌超5%，原油跌超4%，铂、沪镍、低硫燃料油等跌超 3%，国际铜、燃油、甲醇等跌超2%，纯苯、沪铝、纯碱等跌超1%，菜籽、锰硅、短纤等微跌。 2月13日，中证转债指数收跌0.43%，报526.44点。其中，微 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Core Viewpoint - Legendary investor Jim Rogers predicts that a severe global financial crisis will erupt in 2026, worse than the 2008 subprime crisis, due to overwhelming global debt levels and irrational market behaviors [3][5][6]. Debt Crisis - Rogers highlights alarming global debt statistics, with U.S. national debt exceeding $38 trillion, translating to over $110,000 per citizen, and growing at a rate of $4.4 billion daily [5][6]. - Global debt has surpassed $337 trillion, accounting for over 350% of global GDP, indicating a precarious situation for many countries facing increasing default risks [6]. Market Behavior - The current U.S. stock market is characterized by an AI bubble, with many companies' valuations significantly detached from their fundamentals, reminiscent of past market euphoria before crises [6][7]. - Rogers warns that crises often begin with seemingly minor events that escalate, and there are already signs of debt defaults in smaller countries [7]. Investment Strategy - Rogers has completely liquidated his U.S. stock holdings, viewing the current market as a bubble, and has shifted his investments into gold, silver, and copper, which he considers "crisis insurance" [9][10]. - He emphasizes the importance of holding physical metals as a safeguard against future financial turmoil, planning to pass these assets to his children [9][11]. Focus on China - Despite global pessimism, Rogers maintains a long-term bullish outlook on Chinese assets, stating he will never abandon investments in China and holds significant Chinese stocks [4][14]. - He believes in China's unique historical resilience, its undervalued assets compared to the U.S. market, and strong fundamental support from a well-educated workforce [16][17][18]. Key Sectors in China - Rogers identifies three key sectors in China for investment: tourism and transportation, agriculture, and high-end manufacturing and technology [19][20][21]. - He sees significant growth potential in tourism and transportation due to increased consumer spending, agriculture as a strategic necessity, and high-end manufacturing driven by innovation and a skilled labor force [19][20][21]. Investment Philosophy - Rogers advocates for a contrarian investment approach, focusing on core assets and avoiding speculative investments [21][22]. - He emphasizes the importance of capital preservation, long-term investment strategies, and the need to remain vigilant during market euphoria and panic [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group's CEO Yang Yuanqing expressed skepticism about the current AI investment landscape, suggesting that there may be excessive investment in certain areas and cautioning against a universal approach to AI foundational model training [1][1]. Group 1: AI Investment and Market Sentiment - Yang indicated that while there may be over-investment in some AI sectors, the path to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remains uncertain [1][1]. - The essence of AI is rooted in the accumulation of historical human data, which is crucial for developing intelligent technologies [1][1]. Group 2: Future of AI Applications - For AI to achieve widespread application, it is essential to leverage private data from enterprises and individuals to create personal intelligence and institutional frameworks [1][1]. - The democratization of AI is expected to drive increased usage of smart terminals and AI technology infrastructure [1][1].

作者 Daniel Schönberger ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味 着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 当下很难对谷歌给出明确判断并为投资者提供清晰指引。 一方面，谷歌盈利能力强劲，在未来 可能达万亿美元规模的 AI 市场中，具备成为领军者并占据主导地位的实力；即便持续大手笔 投入，公司资产负债表依旧稳健，债务规模有限，手握巨额现金及短期投资储备，自由现金流 表现亮眼。另一方面，头部 AI 企业的竞争日趋白热化，我们不禁要问：数万亿美元的 AI 投资 是否具备合理性？这些投入终有一日能否转化为同等规模的营收和利润？ 即便 AI 泡沫破裂，谷歌无疑会是幸存者之一，公司经营状况良好、资产负债表扎实。但市场 情绪的转向可能导致几乎所有企业股价下跌，AI 概念股首当其冲，投资者或将面临巨额账面亏 损。若 AI 炒作热潮戛然而止，谷歌暴跌 50% 甚至更多，并非没有可能。 尽管分析师对谷歌的投资态度趋于谨慎，但市场显然有不同看法：近三个月里，谷歌不仅大幅 跑赢同期仅上涨 3% 的标普 500 指数，其自身涨幅也十分可观。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 即便如此，分析师仍需重申：对谷 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - **Glass**: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - **Apples**: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - **Oils and Fats**: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].

成文日期：20260205 报告周期: 日报 究员:杜宇（从业资格号：F3075043; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017815) 沪铜期货日报 1期货市场 2026年2月5日，上海期货交易所铜期货主力合约(CU.SHF)呈 现显著下跌态势。当日开盘价为 10.4万元/吨,最高价达到 10.47 万 元/吨,最低价下探至10.047万元/吨,最终以10.098万元/吨收盘。 全天跌幅达 3.76%，成交活跃度保持在较高水平,成交量为 285,586手,持仓量为 182,336 手。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 产业链上下游动态方面，海外科技资产夜间较大幅度下跌，市 场对 AI 泡沫担忧加强、特别是下游需求端可能发生变化。 4 行情展望 短期来看,铜价呈现明显弱势格局,空头占据主动,行情波动 较大,受市场情绪影响明显,应保持谨慎。同时,需关注现货市场 价格走势及期现价差变化，以及主力资金流向和持仓变动情况。 风险揭示及免责声明 2 现货市场基差分析 2 月 5 日中国有色市场铜平均价 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial reports of major tech companies, highlighting a shift from AI enthusiasm to concerns over capital expenditures and cash flow issues [4][5] - Despite impressive revenue figures, stock prices for Amazon, Microsoft, and Google fell significantly after their earnings reports, indicating market skepticism [4] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Amazon's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is $200 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $144.7 billion and up 60% from its 2025 estimate of $125 billion [8] - Microsoft reported a quarterly capital expenditure of $37.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 66% [9] - Alphabet's capital expenditure for Q4 2025 is estimated at $27.9 billion, with plans for 2026 expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion, roughly double that of 2025 [9] - Overall, the five major tech companies are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of $600 billion to $700 billion in 2026 [11] Free Cash Flow Concerns - Amazon's operating cash flow over the past 12 months was $139.5 billion, a 20% increase, but its free cash flow plummeted 71% to $11.2 billion [12] - Microsoft reported an operating cash flow of approximately $35.76 billion for the quarter, with free cash flow significantly below market expectations [13] - The trend indicates that while operating cash flows are strong, massive capital expenditures are severely compressing free cash flows across these companies [14] Depreciation and Future Earnings Impact - Tech companies are extending the depreciation periods of their assets to improve short-term profits, which may lead to increased depreciation costs impacting future earnings [15][16] - Microsoft and Alphabet have extended the useful life of their servers and network equipment, which could result in concentrated depreciation costs affecting profitability in the next 3-5 years [15][16] Market Sentiment and AI Investment Risks - The article describes the current AI arms race as a gamble, with significant upfront investments made by tech companies without immediate profitability [18] - Analysts express concerns that OpenAI's funding model may lead to financial strain, as it relies heavily on external capital for its operations [20][21] - The complexity of cloud service contracts and the reliance on future growth projections create potential risks for tech companies and their clients [21][24] Customer Impact and Business Strategy - Microsoft has adjusted its pricing strategies, reducing long-term discounts and increasing bundling of AI services, which may affect customer choices and costs [26] - Companies must consider the total lifecycle costs of AI applications, including cloud resources and integration expenses, as they navigate the evolving landscape [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute asset allocation for precious metals, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [96,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][96]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The overall macro situation is mixed. With the Spring Festival approaching, market risk - aversion sentiment rises. The traditional off - season leads to weak demand, and the high global visible copper inventory suppresses the upside space of copper prices. Long - position holders are advised to take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the long - run, copper is promising due to its strategic importance and the background of tight copper concentrate and growing green copper demand [6][96]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, employment data is poor. In January, ADP employment increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, and the continuing jobless claims continued to decline, indicating overall stability in the job market. The January manufacturing PMI data shows that the service sector is strong while the manufacturing sector contracts slightly. The US 1 - month CPI and core CPI inflation pressures are generally controllable. The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 97.96, causing pressure on commodities. The Middle - East geopolitical risks are volatile. The US AI stock market has concerns about the bubble, leading to panic selling [15]. - In China, the January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from December 2025, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. On February 5, 2026, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman led to expectations of "interest - rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" policies, causing the US dollar to rebound strongly, precious metals to fall, and the non - ferrous metal sector to decline [16]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mine Supply**: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Southern Copper's production guidance for 2026 - 27 is lower than 2025, increasing concerns about supply shortages. The US plans to start a strategic critical mineral reserve project. Congo (Kinshasa) exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached record highs multiple times [53]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate TC remains at a low level. The 2026 long - term copper concentrate price is 0 US dollars/dry ton, down 21.25 US dollars/dry ton from 2025, indicating a tight supply expectation [54]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fees**: The processing fees in the south and north regions and for imported crude copper have different price ranges [54]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February production is expected to decline. In 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [56]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference**: The scrap - to - refined copper price difference has recovered to a medium - high level, but it has converged recently [56]. - **CSPT Consensus**: The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing copper smelting capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [56]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Copper Processing Enterprises' Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises is 69.07%, a 0.47% decrease; that of recycled copper rod enterprises is 14.82%, a 0.13% increase; and that of wire and cable enterprises is 60.15%, a 0.69% increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rates of downstream enterprises are expected to decline significantly [77]. - **Terminal Industry Copper Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, the total copper consumption of various industries is expected to be 1.68 million tons, with a 2.75% year - on - year increase [78]. - **Terminal Demand**: Green copper demand is high in renewable energy and new - energy vehicles. In the automotive sector, the retail sales of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles in January 2026 have different trends. In the power sector, grid investment increased, and photovoltaic installed capacity grew rapidly. In the home - appliance sector, production increased due to the policy of trade - in of consumer goods [79]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, hitting a new high since July 2013. The high inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, with short - term risks tilted downward. Only after the Spring Festival in China when the demand recovery signal is clearer in the second half of the second quarter of 2026 may the market have new fluctuations and upward opportunities [93][94].