以下文章来源于调兵投资 ，作者userfield 调兵投资 . userfield，田野 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：userfield 来源：雪球 赚钱容易，是因为2025年医药板块投资主线很清晰——就是创新药，更聚焦的说法是有出海预期 的创新药。一旦有了清晰主线，大家都知道啥票会涨，或者说复盘的时候，上涨股票有非常清晰 的特征。 但不简单：行情走到现在，该涨的都已经涨了一大波，向上空间完全看市场情绪。而轮动上涨的 创新药"边角料"，可能热点又转换很快。所以现在选股又不简单，需要判断行情、把握热点、快 速操作，赚创新药行情钱的难度上了一个台阶。 二、25年初至今涨幅的量化统计 30/50：涨幅超过30%的票差不多有50多支，而其中与创新药相关的股票差不多30多支，也就是说 今年大涨票与创新药的相关系数非常明显。 35%：创新药资产（标签化明显）大约50支票，平均涨幅是50%，中位数涨幅是35%。 三、高弹性股票的创新药逻辑 我们看看涨幅大的票，相关创新药靶点特点以及对股票的弹性。 1、舒泰神：凝血因子X 激活剂。舒泰神的股价启动比较晚。25年4 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses significant licensing agreements in the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the collaboration between Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) and BioNTech for the development of BNT327, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1 and VEGF-A, with a total potential payment of up to $11.1 billion [1][2][6]. Group 1: Licensing Agreements - BMS will pay BioNTech an upfront fee of $1.5 billion and up to $2 billion in annual payments before 2028, along with milestone payments that could total $7.6 billion [1][2]. - The agreement allows for shared global profits and losses between BMS and BioNTech, marking a shift from traditional licensing models [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The PD-(L)1 market is projected to reach $52.5 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2021 to 2024, and the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies are expected to become a cornerstone in a market potentially exceeding $100 billion by 2028 [3][4]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is also growing rapidly, with a projected size of $14.5 billion by 2024 and a CAGR of 40% from 2021 to 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The article highlights a trend where multinational corporations are increasingly partnering with Chinese biotech firms to enhance their pipelines, driven by the need to overcome patent cliffs and the high cost of drug development in the U.S. [6][7]. - Chinese innovative drug companies are becoming more competitive, with significant increases in business development (BD) transactions, from $9.2 billion in 2020 to an expected $52.3 billion in 2024 [7][8]. Group 4: Clinical Development and Future Prospects - BioNTech's BNT327 has shown promising clinical trial results for treating locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, indicating its potential in a high-demand therapeutic area [2][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of clinical trial execution quality and innovative drug characteristics in negotiating favorable terms in BD transactions [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is driven by the anticipation of significant business development (BD) deals, despite a decline in its Q1 2023 financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2023, CSPC reported revenues of approximately 7.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, marking the first time since 2022 that quarterly revenue fell below 8 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.478 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the performance of the finished drug business, which generated approximately 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year [5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, CSPC's stock price surged, increasing by 14.08% within half an hour and closing at 7.62, a rise of 11.73% [1]. - The stock continued to rise on May 30, reaching a peak of 8.56 HKD, with a total increase of 25.5% over two days, marking a new high since March 2023 [1]. Business Development Opportunities - CSPC is currently in discussions regarding three potential BD transactions, with a total potential value exceeding 5 billion USD [2]. - The company has been actively pursuing BD agreements to enhance its innovation capabilities, having completed multiple significant deals in recent years [9]. Challenges and Strategic Shift - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the impact of centralized procurement policies, which have significantly reduced prices for key products [6][7]. - CSPC's transition from generic to innovative drugs has faced challenges, necessitating a focus on innovation to overcome market recognition barriers [9]. Innovation and R&D Investment - CSPC has increased its R&D expenditures, with 2023 and 2024 figures reaching 4.830 billion yuan and 5.191 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 7.5% [8]. - The company has expanded its pipeline in various therapeutic areas, including oncology and cardiovascular diseases, and is developing advanced drug delivery systems [8]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - CSPC's ADC asset, SYS6010, has shown promising results in early-phase studies, with a potential peak sales forecast of over 2.5 billion USD in China and 1.5-2 billion USD in international markets [12]. - The positive clinical data for SYS6010 positions it as a strong candidate for future BD opportunities, enhancing CSPC's market competitiveness [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-value transaction involving the innovative drug SSGJ-707 by 3SBio and Pfizer highlights the growing trend of Chinese biopharmaceutical companies expanding into international markets, despite challenges in the global pharmaceutical environment [2][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Pfizer has made a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion (approximately 9 billion RMB) for the rights to SSGJ-707 outside of China, with potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.8 billion (approximately 34.5 billion RMB) and an additional $100 million for equity subscription [2]. - This transaction sets a record for the upfront payment for a Chinese innovative drug going overseas, indicating a significant shift in the landscape of biopharmaceutical transactions [4]. Group 2: Company Background - 3SBio, established in 1993, is a well-established pharmaceutical company that went public on NASDAQ in 2007 and later privatized before listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2015 [3]. - The subsidiary involved in the transaction, 3SBio Guojian, was formerly known as CITIC Guojian and is recognized as one of the earliest companies in China to engage in antibody drug research and sales [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of Chinese innovative drug companies seeking international partnerships has been growing, with a nearly 40% increase in outbound business development (BD) transactions since 2022, projected to reach around 120 deals worth approximately $63 billion in 2024 [6]. - The stock prices of 3SBio and 3SBio Guojian have surged over 200% and 130%, respectively, following the announcement of this transaction, reflecting strong market interest in innovative drug development [4]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The increasing trend of "going overseas" is reshaping the clinical research strategies of domestic innovative drug companies, with many now considering international transactions as a key part of their development plans [4]. - The shift from a "me too" model to a focus on first-in-class (FIC) drugs is evident, as domestic companies are increasingly competing head-to-head with multinational pharmaceutical firms [4][5].

作 者丨季媛媛 编 辑丨张星 图 源丨摄图网 当创新药行业的领军企业恒瑞医药在港股市场首日上市即收涨25%时，A股和H股市场上的创 新药板块也呈现出显著的上涨趋势。回顾整个创新药板块的市场表现，尽管在5月26日经历了 一定程度的回调，但整体来看， 创新药板块依旧是今年表现最为出色的子板块之一 ，其成绩 令人鼓舞。 根据Wind数据，截至5月26日10时30分， 恒生行业指数中的医疗保健业，年初至今涨幅已超 30% 。其中，三生制药年初至今涨幅高达210.86%、远大医药涨幅达94.17%、科伦博泰生物- B涨幅达87.88%、诺诚健华涨幅达69.28%、乐普生物-B涨幅达64.12%。另外，港股概念板块 中的未盈利生物科技指数年初至今涨幅超39%。其中，德琪医药-B年初至今涨幅达456.92%、 和铂医药-B涨幅达358.60%、加科思-B涨幅达244.88%、康宁杰瑞制药-B涨幅超148%。 面 对 市 场 表 现 ， 许 多 行 业 专 家 坦 率 表 示 ： 医 药 领 域 ， 特 别 是 创 新 药 物 ， 已 经 从 " 寒 冬"迈向"暖春"，进入了一个新的政策扶持和发展的周期。 长江证券分析认为， ...

创新药：爆款，突围，与自证 编者按：创新药行业正迎来政策扶持、产业升级与业绩回暖的"三重共振"，资本市场估值逻辑加速重 构，"熊市思维"下的传统评估方式已难适用。21世纪经济报道将持续聚焦行业热点——从BD交易模式 到全球化竞争策略，从高估值背后的风险到政策波动的应对，推出系列报道专题《创新药：爆款，突 围，与自证》，深入解读创新药企如何在变革中穿越周期，重塑价值坐标，定义行业新未来，此篇为第 一篇。 21世纪经济报道记者季媛媛 上海报道 当创新药行业的领军企业恒瑞医药在港股市场首日上市即收涨25%时，A股和H股市场上的创新药板块 也呈现出显著的上涨趋势。回顾整个创新药板块的市场表现，尽管在5月26日经历了一定程度的回调， 但整体来看，创新药板块依旧是今年表现最为出色的子板块之一，其成绩令人鼓舞。 根据Wind数据，截至5月26日10时30分，恒生行业指数中的医疗保健业，年初至今涨幅已超30%。其 中，三生制药年初至今涨幅高达210.86%、远大医药涨幅达94.17%、科伦博泰生物-B涨幅达87.88%、诺 诚健华涨幅达69.28%、乐普生物-B涨幅达64.12%。另外，港股概念板块中的未盈利生物科技指数年初 ...

5月23日，恒瑞医药正式登陆香港联交所，完成两地上市的布局。此次港股IPO以每股44.05港元的定价发行，共募集资金约98.9亿港元，成为今年以来国 内规模最大的医药IPO项目。 作为国内的创新药领域的头部公司，恒瑞医药这次在港股上市被视为其向国际化运作的关键一步。当前，恒瑞医药的产品出海主要依赖于对外的授权合 作，授权收入也是目前恒瑞医药重要的业绩贡献，特别是利润端。在恒瑞累计的14笔创新药对外授权合作中，近三年就达成了9笔，出海过程可以说在加 速推进。 此次上市，恒瑞再次拓宽了自己的融资渠道，背后也暗含其转型逻辑的延续。今年2月，我们曾系统分析过恒瑞医药的转型路径，以及它的收获。以下是 文章： 靴子落地——2024年1月6日，恒瑞医药正式向港交所递交上市申请，寻求在香港二次上市。恒瑞发布相关公告称，此举是为了"深入推动科技创新和国际 化双轮驱动战略，进一步助力公司国际化业务的发展"。 有关这轮融资的传闻自去年10月开始发酵。彭博援引匿名知情人士消息称，融资规模至少20亿美元。 恒瑞在国内医药产业拥有丰富度排名第一的管线数量，有"药茅"之称，但恒瑞上一次融资已是遥远的2000年——登陆A股时。这也是该公司历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, particularly for Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, is driven by favorable factors such as the cyclical resurgence of COVID-19 and record-breaking domestic innovative drug business development (BD) deals [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical's stock price has experienced a continuous rise since May 16, achieving a maximum increase of 28.33% by May 21, with a cumulative increase of nearly 50% year-to-date [1] - The stock has shown significant trading activity, with over 25 million shares traded on three consecutive days from May 19 to 21, indicating strong market interest [4] Group 2: Business Development Potential - The recent $60.5 billion BD deal between Innovent Biologics and Pfizer has spotlighted the potential of Chinese innovative drugs, with Xiansheng Pharmaceutical being a key player in this growth [2] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has developed multiple ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) candidates targeting various biomarkers, with products like SCR-A006 showing Best-in-Class potential [2] Group 3: International Expansion - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has established a track record in international markets, with its first overseas deal for SIM0278 setting a record for domestic autoimmune drug BD at the time [3] - The company has secured a licensing agreement exceeding $1 billion for SIM0500 with AbbVie, currently undergoing clinical trials in the U.S. and China [3] Group 4: Innovation and R&D - The company has invested over 8.5 billion yuan in R&D over six years, developing over 60 innovative drug candidates across various therapeutic areas [5] - Three new drug molecules are in the NDA approval process, while four are in Phase III clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline [5] - The anticipated launch of significant new drugs will further enhance the company's position in the global biopharmaceutical market [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 海外制药企业2025Q1业绩回顾 ——美国药品价格改革叠加不确定的宏观环境 行业研究 · 行业专题 医药生物 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：马千里 010-88005445 maqianli@guosen.com.cn S0980521070001 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：彭思宇 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 ◼ Pharma收入端增长整体有所放缓：2025Q1，礼来及诺和诺德在GLP-1类药物驱动下，收入端分别+45%/+18%，其中诺和诺德由于美 国compounded GLP-1药物影响，销售低于预期并下调全年收入指引；诺华、艾伯维、阿斯利康、赛诺菲分别依靠诺欣妥/可善挺、 Skyrizi/Rinvoq、Farxiga/Enhertu、Dupixent等核心品种 ...