Core Viewpoint - The focus of the discussion is on the concerns raised by society and the government regarding the hidden issues associated with BD transactions, particularly the lack of globally valued multinational pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 1 - The event took place on October 14 at the 2025 Zhangjiang Pharmaceutical Valley Industry Ecosystem Global Promotion Conference [1] - Zhu Yi, the founder, chairman, and chief scientific officer of Baillie Tianheng, highlighted the attention from society and government towards the issues arising from BD transactions [1] - The primary concern is identified as the absence of multinational pharmaceutical companies that hold global value [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market for innovative drug companies is experiencing a resurgence, with multiple firms filing for listings amid a favorable market environment [1][3][5] - Recent changes in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing rules have positively impacted investor sentiment and participation, leading to significant oversubscription rates for new listings [9][10] - The valuation landscape for biotech companies has shifted, with many firms now valued between 3-5 billion RMB, reflecting a change in market narrative and investor preferences [3][4] Group 1: Market Activity - Since September 15, six innovative drug companies have joined the IPO race in Hong Kong, following the recent listing of Ying'en Biotech [1][5] - The recent IPOs have seen extraordinary demand, with some companies experiencing oversubscription rates exceeding 3000 times, leading to substantial first-day price increases [1][4] - The current IPO wave is reminiscent of previous peaks in 2018 and 2021, with a notable increase in activity compared to prior years [3] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Trends - The last funding rounds for many companies show valuations concentrated between 3-5 billion RMB, contrasting with the previous trend of companies valued at over 10 billion RMB [3][4] - The market is now more focused on the intrinsic value of innovative drug assets, with a preference for companies that can effectively collaborate with larger pharmaceutical firms [4][7] - The shift in investor focus has led to a more favorable environment for smaller biotech firms, as they are perceived to have greater growth potential in competitive therapeutic areas [4][8] Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Investor Sentiment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange implemented new rules in August that have improved the predictability of the IPO process for institutional investors, enhancing their participation [9] - The new rules allow for a fixed allocation of shares to institutional investors, regardless of retail demand, which has increased institutional interest in recent IPOs [9][10] - The current market conditions have led to a significant increase in the number of biotech companies seeking to go public, with over 60 medical enterprises submitting IPO applications since the beginning of 2025 [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is increasingly focusing on international expansion, with a significant rise in business development (BD) transactions in 2025 compared to previous years [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, the total amount of BD transactions for innovative drugs going overseas approached the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a strong trend towards international collaboration [4] - BD transactions are characterized as technology licensing rather than product sales, offering lower initial investment and shorter monetization cycles compared to self-directed overseas market entry [4][5] Group 2 - The article notes that while large companies like Heng Rui Medicine (恒瑞医药) can sustain regular BD transactions due to their abundant pipelines, smaller pharmaceutical companies may struggle to maintain consistent overseas revenue through this model [5] - A Chinese innovative pharmaceutical company has adopted a unique approach to its overseas strategy, distinguishing itself from typical models in the industry [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a surge in IPO activities for innovative biotech companies in Hong Kong, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory changes [1][2][4] - Since April 2023, the Hong Kong IPO market for innovative drugs has been revitalized, with several companies experiencing significant oversubscription and stock price increases on their debut [1][3] - The current trend shows a shift in investor preference towards smaller biotech firms with lower valuations, contrasting with previous years where companies had valuations exceeding 10 billion RMB [2][3] Group 2 - Over 60 medical and pharmaceutical companies have submitted IPO applications in 2025, with innovative drug companies making up a significant portion [4] - The new regulations implemented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in August 2023 have positively impacted the subscription rates and stock prices of new listings [7][8] - The market is witnessing a growing interest in business development (BD) collaborations, which are seen as crucial for the valuation and future growth of biotech companies [5][6] Group 3 - The global pharmaceutical industry is facing a potential revenue decline due to patent expirations, creating opportunities for Chinese innovative drug assets [5] - The recent changes in the IPO process have led to increased participation from institutional investors, enhancing the overall market dynamics [8] - The Hong Kong biotech sector is expected to maintain a positive long-term outlook due to improved asset quality and global competitiveness [8]

Core Insights - The domestic BD (business development) transactions in the pharmaceutical industry have exceeded the total amount for the entire year of 2024, indicating an improvement in the quality of China's pharmaceutical sector [1][2] - The second-tier market is showing signs of recovery, driven by improved performance of listed pharmaceutical companies and the introduction of significant policies [3][4] - Despite the positive trends in the second-tier market, the first-tier market remains sluggish, with a notable decline in private financing events and total transaction amounts [4][5] Group 1: BD Transactions and Market Performance - In the first half of the year, domestic BD transactions totaled 72, with upfront payments reaching $2.6 billion and total transaction amounts hitting $60 billion, surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - Leading pharmaceutical companies like Heng Rui and BeiGene reported significant revenue growth, with Heng Rui achieving a revenue of 15.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, and BeiGene reporting 17.52 billion yuan, up 46.03% [2] - Among 499 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, 236 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for 47.3% of the total, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous year [2] Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Sentiment - The introduction of policies such as "Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Innovative Drugs" has bolstered market confidence, contributing to a 17% increase in the biopharmaceutical index since the beginning of 2025 [3][4] - The industry has experienced a shift in perception regarding BD transactions, with many now viewing them as a vital pathway for internationalization rather than a concern of "selling seedlings" [3][4] Group 3: Challenges in the First-tier Market - The first-tier market is experiencing a "wait for the wind" situation, with over 300 private financing events reported in the first half of 2025, but transaction numbers and total amounts have been declining [4][5] - The low pricing of innovative drugs in China compared to global markets has led to a "high risk, low return" scenario, deterring new entrants and limiting the growth of new biopharmaceutical funds [4][5] - External uncertainties, such as the recent U.S. government proposal to impose high tariffs on various imported products, including patented drugs, have created additional challenges for the industry [4][5] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Market Expansion - Industry insiders emphasize the need for domestic market expansion, particularly through the development of commercial insurance and optimization of innovative drug pricing mechanisms [1][6][8] - The potential for growth in the domestic pharmaceutical market remains significant, with healthcare spending in China currently at 7.9% of GDP compared to 17.7% in the U.S., indicating room for expansion [7][8] - As living standards rise, there is an increasing focus on health, which could provide long-term support for the pharmaceutical industry [8]

前一段时间，美国对中国创新药BD出手的传闻又起。 回顾近一年的创新药牛市，诱发股价上涨的核心驱动因素真实跨国药企（MNC）的连续BD预期：从最 早的康方生物，到后来的科伦博泰，再到百利天恒、三生药业，这些创新药"当红炸子鸡"的崛起全部与 大额BD交易相关。 对于创新药"BD为王"的核心逻辑，我们十分认同。早在2023年初的时候，我们就以《2023年，中国创 新药投资告别"豪赌"时代》一文给出明确判断：BD交易将成为创新药投资的核心主线。 当初判断已经成为行业的共识，我们万分欣喜的同时，也深知"真理掌握着少数人手中"的道理。当BD 预期已经释放的足够充分，甚至药企开始预告式BD的时候，就说明核心投资逻辑的"变局时刻"已经开 始悄然酝酿。 创新药的鬼故事不一定能落地，但投资者却应该提前做好医药投资逻辑切换的准备。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：锦缎 01 万物皆周期 这个世界上的所有事物，都逃不出"周期"二字。当投资者读懂了周期，也就读懂了投资。 股市由衰转盛是周期的原因，同样投机泡沫的破裂亦是周期所带动。对于投资者而言，永远不要与周期 作对，而是应该学会将周期的力量转化为己用。 BD预期，是这轮创新药牛市的核心诱因，受益 ...

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug industry has established a trend towards global commercialization, supported by a pyramid structure of leading and quality enterprises, indicating strong sustainability in industry development [2]. - The underlying logic of the current cycle is that Chinese innovative drugs possess global competitiveness, shifting from domestic sales to international licensing and commercialization, thus opening up commercial space and maturing the ecosystem [2]. - The focus on differentiated mechanisms or high clinical value "good molecules" remains a core interest for international buyers, with early data being crucial for entering licensing windows [2]. Current Situation - The Chinese innovative drug industry is entering a phase of realization, driven by support from capital markets, policies, and talent [3]. - The industry has developed self-sustaining capabilities through business development (BD) licensing and drug commercialization [3]. - Comprehensive policy support for "true innovation" has been established, enhancing the industry's growth [3]. Future Outlook - Continued collaboration among academia, industry, and research will enhance the output of first-in-class (FIC) molecules, with China becoming one of the most efficient countries in the drug development pathway [4]. - Higher innovation levels are expected to further unlock commercial value, indicating a promising future for the industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on global blockbuster products: companies such as BeiGene, Kelun-Biotech, Innovent Biologics, and others are highlighted as key players [5]. - Attention to global best-in-class (BIC) potential companies, including EdiGene, Zai Lab, and others, is recommended [5]. - Domestic blockbuster products and asset values of companies like Hengrui Medicine and others are also suggested for consideration [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Innovative Drug Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to a leader, showcasing significant advantages in R&D efficiency and cost control, particularly in popular technology areas such as bispecific antibodies (双抗) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) [1][2][3] - The approval speed of innovative drugs directly impacts market volume and competitive landscape, with early market entry being crucial [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift in underlying logic, with improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and increased risk appetite expected to boost the pharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drugs [1][8] - **International Recognition**: Chinese innovative drugs are gaining international recognition, exemplified by the $1.25 billion upfront payment for the PD-1 VGF bispecific antibody licensed to Pfizer by 3SBio, marking a significant milestone in outbound business development (BD) transactions [1][9] - **Policy Influence**: Healthcare policies are encouraging differentiated innovation, with diverse payment methods being explored, and the impact of drug price reduction policies being limited [1][4][5] Key Factors Affecting the Industry - **Types of Companies**: The innovative drug sector comprises Big Pharma and Biotech companies, with Big Pharma focusing on commercialization and Biotech emphasizing R&D innovation [1][7] - **Investment Sentiment**: The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector has been weak from 2020 to 2024 due to investor preference for dividend stocks, but improvements in liquidity and risk appetite in 2025 are expected to enhance the performance of the innovative drug sector [1][8] Challenges and Opportunities - **Global Competition**: As the global source innovation enters a bottleneck, Chinese companies can leverage high efficiency to achieve competitive advantages, particularly in ADC and bispecific antibody fields where they hold significant market shares [1][20][22] - **Market Entry Timing**: The timing of market entry is critical, with first-in-class drugs capturing an average of 45% market share, while subsequent entrants see diminishing returns [1][18] Emerging Trends and Future Directions - **New Drug Development**: The focus on PD-1 bispecific antibodies and ADCs is expected to drive future growth, with several companies poised to launch significant products in the near term [1][31][32] - **Clinical Trial Efficiency**: Chinese companies demonstrate superior enrollment speeds in clinical trials, significantly reducing time and costs compared to international counterparts [1][16] Conclusion - The Chinese innovative drug industry is positioned for substantial growth driven by policy support, international recognition, and advancements in R&D efficiency. The upcoming years are likely to see increased BD activities and successful product launches, contributing to the sector's evolution and competitiveness on a global scale [1][10][32]

Core Insights - The innovation drug industry is experiencing a dichotomy between a booming secondary market and a struggling primary market for financing [1][2][12] - Despite a surge in stock prices and new IPOs, the primary market remains challenging, with many biotech companies facing prolonged fundraising cycles [1][4][12] - Investors are increasingly cautious, focusing on companies with clear clinical data and commercialization potential [6][8][10] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, stock prices of listed innovative drug companies have rebounded, with over 60 companies seeing their stock prices double [1] - A survey indicated that 60% of biotech leaders believe the primary market has improved but remains unsatisfactory, while 33% see no significant change [2] - In the first half of 2025, there were 188 financing events in the domestic innovative drug primary market, a 7.4% year-on-year decline, with total financing amounting to approximately $1.58 billion, down 24.5% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Fundraising Challenges - Founders report difficulties in securing funding, with one entrepreneur needing to engage with over 100 institutions to attract investment [1][4] - The average fundraising cycle for A-round financing has extended to over 20 months for some companies [4] - 89% of biotech companies are currently seeking funding, with 63% reporting that progress is "not smooth" or "very difficult" [5] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are now more focused on the ability of companies to commercialize their products, moving away from investing solely based on scientific concepts [6][10] - There is a notable shift in investor logic, requiring companies to provide substantial evidence of their ability to meet milestones and achieve commercialization [7][8] - The majority of investors are hesitant to invest in early-stage companies unless there is a clear path to success and established clinical data [10][12] Group 4: Exit Strategies - The current exit environment remains challenging, with 74% of biotech respondents indicating that exit channels are still not smooth [12][13] - Many investors are under pressure to exit previous investments, leading to increased scrutiny and demands for transparency from portfolio companies [13][14] - New exit strategies, such as BD transactions, are emerging, but they are still not widely adopted [14] Group 5: Future Outlook - There is a concern that the current wave of BD transactions may lead to a "gap" in future investment opportunities due to insufficient funding for innovative projects [17] - Investors express cautious optimism about the market, believing that improvements in policy and market conditions could stimulate further investment in the primary market [18] - The long-term success of the industry will depend on fostering a supportive environment for innovation and respecting intellectual property rights [18]

Core Insights - The innovation drug industry is experiencing a dichotomy between a booming secondary market and a struggling primary market for financing [4][16][23] - Despite increased interest from investors, the financing environment remains challenging, with many biotech companies facing long delays in securing funding [3][9][16] Industry Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, stock prices of listed innovative drug companies have rebounded, with over 60 companies seeing their stock prices double [4] - A survey indicated that 60% of biotech leaders believe the primary market has emerged from its lowest point, but conditions are still not ideal [4][9] - In the first half of 2025, there were 188 financing events in the domestic innovative drug primary market, a 7.4% year-on-year decline, with total financing amounting to approximately $1.58 billion, down 24.5% year-on-year [4] Financing Challenges - Many biotech founders report difficulties in securing funding, with one entrepreneur stating that they needed to engage with at least 100 institutions to attract investment [3][9] - A significant portion of biotech companies (63%) reported that financing progress is "not very smooth" or "very difficult" [9] - The primary barriers to financing include high professional barriers and stringent financing conditions, such as onerous agreements [9] Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly cautious, focusing on companies' commercialization capabilities rather than just scientific potential [10][11] - There is a noticeable shift in investor logic, with a greater emphasis on achieving milestones and providing clear pathways for success [11][12] - Investors are particularly interested in companies nearing IPO stages, as these represent more immediate opportunities for returns [15] Exit Strategies - The current exit environment remains challenging, with many investors indicating that exit channels are not smooth [16][19] - The pressure for exits is compounded by the need for funds to return from previous investments, which has created a bottleneck in the market [16][19] - Innovative exit strategies, such as BD transactions, are becoming more common, although they often do not lead to complete exits [20] Future Outlook - There is a concern that the current wave of BD transactions may lead to a gap in future investment opportunities due to insufficient funding for new projects [22] - Investors believe that a recovery in the primary market will depend on improved policy and market conditions, as well as successful outcomes in the secondary market [23][24] - The industry faces a potential decline in entrepreneurial activity, with a shift in focus from investing in companies to investing in specific drug pipelines [24]