泰国财政部预计2025年GDP增速为2.2%，之前预期为2.1%。 将2025年整体CPI预测从0.8%下调至0.4%。 ...

新加坡金管局称，下半年新加坡的GDP增速预计将从上半年的强劲步伐中放缓；2025年整体而言，新加 坡的核心通胀率和整体通胀率预计平均为0.5%-1.5%。 新加坡金管局7月30日维持新加坡元名义有效汇率政策现行的斜率、宽度和中点不变。 ...

新加坡金管局：下半年新加坡的GDP增速预计将从上半年的强劲步伐中放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of various provinces in China during the first half of 2025 shows significant disparities, with some provinces exceeding growth expectations while others, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing declines in consumer spending and employment satisfaction [4][6][10]. Economic Growth Performance - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates above the national average of 5.3%, with rates ranging from 5.6% to 6.2% [3][4][7]. - In total, 21 provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding their initial annual targets, indicating a strong foundation for achieving these goals [4][6]. Consumer Spending Trends - The retail sales growth in Beijing and Shanghai was notably low, with Beijing experiencing a decline of 3.8% in retail sales, while Shanghai's growth was only 1.7%, placing them among the lowest in the country [13][24]. - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces exceeding the national average retail sales growth of 5% [10][11]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - Beijing's employment satisfaction index fell to a historical low of 75.2, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which has remained below the critical threshold of 100 for four consecutive quarters [17][19][23]. - The consumer confidence index in Beijing was reported at 95.3, indicating weak consumer sentiment primarily driven by employment expectations [17][18]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Several major provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, reported negative growth in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment declining by 9.7% and Jiangsu by 3.9% [27][29]. - The downturn in real estate development investment significantly impacted overall fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's real estate investment dropping by 16.3% [28][29]. Regional Economic Disparities - While some provinces like Hubei and Hebei showed strong economic performance, with Hubei's GDP growth at 6.2% and Hebei's real estate investment increasing by 2.0%, others struggled with negative growth [8][34]. - The overall economic landscape indicates a need for targeted policies to stimulate consumer confidence and investment, particularly in regions facing economic challenges [32][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for about 80% of total fiscal revenue [1] - Tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) is projected to surpass 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 13 trillion yuan compared to the total tax revenue during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The tax authority's collection of social insurance fees and land transfer fees is expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan, strengthening the financial foundation for economic and social development [1] Group 2 - The structure of tax revenue is improving, with manufacturing tax revenue maintaining a steady share of around 30%, indicating the sector's crucial role in the economy [1] - The fastest growth in tax revenue is seen in modern service industries such as information software and technology services [1] - The number of tax-related business entities has surpassed 100 million, reflecting strong market vitality and resilience [2] Group 3 - Tax policies aimed at improving people's livelihoods in areas such as elderly care, childcare, healthcare, and education are expected to reduce tax burdens by an average of 11.7% annually from 2021 to 2024 [2] - Economic factors such as tax cuts, price changes, and tax source structures influence tax revenue, leading to discrepancies between economic growth and tax revenue [2] - The decline in growth rates of traditional industries like real estate has resulted in slower tax revenue growth, while emerging industries, despite their positive momentum, currently contribute less to overall tax revenue [2]

Economic Performance Overview - As of July 28, 2025, 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reported their economic performance for the first half of the year, with significant growth in major economic provinces, although some provinces experienced fluctuations in their economic data [1] - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.3%, with growth rates of 5.6% and above [1][2] - Guangdong's GDP growth rate was 4.2%, ranking it among the bottom three provinces [1] Provincial GDP Growth - In the first half of 2025, 21 provinces exceeded their annual GDP growth targets set at the beginning of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving their full-year goals [1] - Notably, Tibet, Gansu, and Hubei had the highest GDP growth rates, all above 6% [2] - Hubei's GDP growth rate reached 6.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.9 percentage points [2] Consumption Trends - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces reporting retail sales growth above the national average of 5% [2] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption in several provinces, with retail sales of wearable smart devices and related products in Henan growing over 85% [3] Retail Sales Performance - Beijing and Tianjin reported negative growth in retail sales, with Beijing's retail sales declining by 3.8% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to significant drops in automotive and communication equipment sales [4][5] - Shanghai's retail sales growth was 1.7%, ranking it among the lowest in the country [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Despite strong economic growth, several provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, experienced declines in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment dropping by 9.7% [9][10] - The decline in real estate development investment was a major factor affecting fixed asset investment growth in these provinces [10] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in Beijing remained low, with the consumer confidence index below 100 for four consecutive quarters, indicating weak consumer sentiment [6][8] - The employment satisfaction index in Beijing hit a historical low of 75.2 in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting concerns over job security and income [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Some provinces, such as Beijing, reported strong fixed asset investment growth of 14.1%, driven by significant increases in equipment purchase investments [12] - Hebei's real estate development investment grew by 2.0%, supported by ongoing urban development projects [13]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU, while appearing as a truce, is characterized as an "asymmetrical" deal where the EU commits to significant future energy purchases and investments in exchange for a relatively lenient tariff environment [3][5] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to purchase up to $750 billion in energy products from the US over the coming years, alongside an additional $600 billion investment commitment, which is seen as a substantial benefit for the US [5] - The agreement does not signify the end of US-EU trade disputes but may herald a new round of negotiations, as evidenced by past tensions and tariff threats from the Trump administration [5][7] Group 2 - The EU's negotiating position appears weak due to its own economic challenges, as retaliatory tariffs could harm European consumers and specific industries, particularly in countries like France and Italy [7] - There are significant discrepancies in the interpretation of key details of the agreement, particularly regarding tariffs on steel and aluminum, indicating a lack of true consensus on core issues [8] - The agreement highlights Europe's vulnerability due to over-reliance on a single trade partner, raising concerns about the need for strategic autonomy and diversification of trade relationships [11]

Group 1 - The Turkish economy has returned to a "positive cycle" after experiencing market turmoil in March, according to Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek [1] - All financial indicators, including foreign exchange reserves and the Istanbul BIST100 stock index, have recovered to levels seen in mid-March [1] - The Central Bank of Turkey unexpectedly lowered the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, resuming a rate-cutting cycle that was interrupted by political events in March [1] Group 2 - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3," citing improved monetary policy credibility, slowing inflation, and better economic imbalances [1] - The government expects the inflation rate by the end of the year to be in the mid-to-high end of the Central Bank's forecast range, or below 29% [1] - As of June, Turkey's annual inflation rate dropped to 35%, significantly down from a peak of approximately 75% in May 2024 [1] Group 3 - Turkey's GDP growth target for this year is set at 4%, but a Reuters survey of 34 economists indicates a median GDP growth expectation of only 2.8% for 2025, down from 3.2% in 2024 [2]

Revenue Insights - In the first half of 2025, general fiscal revenue totaled 11.56 trillion, down 0.3% year-on-year, with June revenue at 1.89 trillion, also down 0.31% year-on-year[1][2] - Government fund revenue in June was 395.9 billion, a significant increase of 20.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by land transfer income[9][10] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure in the first half reached 14.13 trillion, up 3.4% year-on-year, with June expenditure at 2.83 trillion, a mere 0.38% increase year-on-year[1][2] - Central fiscal expenditure grew by 9% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local expenditure growth of 2.6%[2][8] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, suggesting a potential slowdown to around 4.7% in the second half, still maintaining a target of "around 5%"[4][5] - New policies are expected from the Political Bureau by the end of July, but strong stimulus measures are unlikely, with a focus on gradual support[4][5] Fiscal Policy Considerations - The fiscal policy approach is expected to be a "two-step" process, focusing first on the implementation of existing policies and then adjusting based on economic conditions[5][6] - Key areas of focus include the pace of government bond issuance and the actual progress of physical work projects[5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, lower than the previously threatened 25%, which has improved market risk appetite and reduced demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset [2] - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in the recent upper house elections, raising speculation about his potential resignation and increasing political uncertainty regarding future cooperation with opposition parties [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. tariffs will raise core inflation by approximately 1.7% over the next 2-3 years, with GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised down to 1% [3] Group 2 - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its current monetary policy in the upcoming meeting, but there is potential for further easing due to unexpected declines in inflation in Nordic countries and uncertainties from tariffs and trade negotiations [2] - PIMCO economists suggest that President Trump is unlikely to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but will use upcoming appointment opportunities to influence Fed policy direction [1][2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that if the dollar is no longer viewed as a safe investment, it could lead to significant issues, indicating a potential long-term decline in investment trends in the U.S. [3]