注：本文由格隆汇和网易号联合共创 在国际环境的频繁变动下， "促内需"已经成为很长一段时间以来，国内经济的主旋律。 图源： 图虫创意 在零售商超中，传统商超大卖场渠道下滑 11.4%，已经是连续第四年下滑，2024年全国样本超市中关店数量达994家。 量贩零食店却在此时杀成一片红海。仅 2024年一年，万辰集团旗下好想来开店就接近一万家。 对比最为明显的，是作为传统消费的代表之一，高端白酒价格接连下跌，白酒行业集体遭遇库存压力 ——飞天茅台批发价格下探至2000元/ 瓶，茅台1935出现严重价格倒挂。 从以旧换新国家补贴，到各类大额消费券，无一不展露出， "消费"，在当今社会中的重要地位。 目前，我国居民消费在 GDP中的比重不足40%，对比美国的70%和日本的60%占比，仍有巨大提升空间。 但在近两年，我国的消费市场中却出现了显著的冷热不均。 一边，传统消费普遍持续下行，陷入低迷。另一边， "新消费"却连连创下纪录，刷新人们的认知。 在餐饮行业中，经典的餐饮品类节节败退，湊湊火锅 2024年一年关店73家，亏损超3.5亿元，呷哺集团去年亏损近4亿。 新茶饮却 "登堂入室"——今年蜜雪冰城门店已经超过4.6万 ...

Market Overview - On June 20, the market experienced a downward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.84% [1] - Over 3,600 stocks fell across the market, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The white wine, port shipping, banking, and battery sectors saw gains, while oil and gas, brain-computer interfaces, short dramas, and gaming sectors faced declines [1] - The white wine sector experienced a significant rebound after hitting a new low on June 16, with nearly 90% of the 21 listed white wine companies seeing their stock prices drop since the introduction of the "new alcohol ban" [5][7] White Wine Sector Insights - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association reported that the white wine industry is undergoing a deep structural adjustment, characterized by "declining volume and rising profits" and a shift in consumer demographics [7] - The report indicates a fundamental change in consumption scenarios, with a decrease in business banquets leading to a shift in product strategies towards more affordable price ranges [7] - According to Guangfa Securities, the white wine industry is expected to reach a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in demand post-industry consolidation [7] Energy Sector Dynamics - The "old energy" sector, represented by oil and gas, is experiencing a downturn, while the "new energy" sector, including solid-state batteries and photovoltaic equipment, has shown some volatility [8] - Despite the overall decline, the battery sector has been in a continuous rebound since April 7, with significant gains in specific stocks [9] - The global energy transition is accelerating, with BC batteries gaining traction due to supportive government policies [10][11] Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to support the development of high-efficiency photovoltaic battery technologies [11] - However, the photovoltaic sector faced a notable pullback, possibly due to rumors regarding production limits and price controls, which were later denied by industry representatives [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in China, highlighting the rise of "new consumption" and its contrast with traditional consumption, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in purchasing decisions [1][2][4][30]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Domestic consumption in China accounts for less than 40% of GDP, compared to 70% in the US and 60% in Japan, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - There is a notable disparity in the consumption market, with traditional sectors declining while new consumption categories are thriving [4][5]. - Traditional dining categories are struggling, with brands like 湊湊火锅 closing 73 stores and incurring losses exceeding 3.5 billion yuan, while new tea beverage brands like 蜜雪冰城 are rapidly expanding [6]. Group 2: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional consumption focuses on essential daily needs, while new consumption shifts towards "self-pleasing" demands [21][22]. - The rise of "emotional consumption" is evident, with over 40% of young consumers prioritizing emotional value in their purchases [31]. - The concept of new consumption encompasses various sectors, including snack retail and new tea beverages, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and emotional purchasing [34]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes that new consumption trends are not merely a passing fad but are rooted in changing consumer environments and behaviors [54]. - Despite the current enthusiasm for new consumption, many companies are experiencing stock price corrections, indicating potential overvaluation [52][53]. - Long-term prospects for sectors like pet economy and new consumer electronics appear promising, with emerging trends suggesting continued growth [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and potential challenges of Pop Mart, particularly focusing on its popular IP character Labubu, which has become a symbol of the new consumer era and emotional value-driven purchases [2][4][9]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to tap into the emotional value of products, transforming toys into "emotional connectors, social currency, and cultural carriers" [5][6]. - The company has developed a "trendy toy ecosystem" centered around its IPs, achieving over 1 billion yuan in revenue for its four major IPs in 2024 [15]. - The emotional purchasing behavior of consumers, especially young adults, is driven by a desire for social recognition and identity expression [9][11]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - Despite its success, Pop Mart faces skepticism regarding its sustainability, as critics argue that its business model relies heavily on emotional pricing and is vulnerable to market fluctuations [6][13]. - The rapid rise in prices for products like Labubu raises concerns about the long-term viability of such emotional-driven consumption, especially among younger consumers who may lack mature spending habits [11][21]. - The company has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, with a recent market cap of 333.9 billion HKD, highlighting the potential for a bubble in the current consumer environment [21]. Group 3: International Expansion - Pop Mart has successfully expanded into overseas markets, with 2024 overseas revenue reaching 5.07 billion yuan and a growth rate exceeding 600% in Southeast Asia [17]. - The company's strategy involves a gradual approach to international markets, starting with culturally similar regions like South Korea and expanding to places like Singapore and Malaysia [17][19]. - However, the blind box model may face cultural challenges in different markets, as evidenced by incidents of consumer chaos during product launches in places like London [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Pop Mart aims to become a company akin to Disney in the next 5 to 10 years, focusing on building a robust IP ecosystem and enhancing its storytelling capabilities [19]. - The company must navigate the complexities of maintaining consumer interest and developing new IPs while avoiding the pitfalls of over-reliance on social media marketing [16][20]. - The future of Pop Mart will significantly impact the confidence and direction of China's creative globalization efforts, as it represents a milestone in the new consumer brand landscape [21].

自高跌近18% 新消费之王泡泡玛特，最近开启猛烈调整，今天盘中再度大跌超6%，截至发稿跌5%，而与此同时，传统消费中的白酒开启反弹，成为今天涨幅最 高的行业板块。 01 泡泡玛特再度大跌5% 泡泡玛特股价继续下挫，自历史高点283港元已经跌近18%，市值蒸发超600亿港元。 消息面上，近期爆款产品，Labubu黄牛价全线暴跌。 大量网友表示，泡泡玛特6月18日在其官方小程序上已大量补货Labubu系列盲盒，并多次弹 出相关商品的补货通知。 在社交平台上，不少网友已纷纷晒出抢到Labubu的预售订单。 部分消费者还表示，感觉此次补货的数量和次数比往期的都多，导致抢购的人数大幅增加。 受到官方补货影响，Labubu在二手市场的交易价格应声下跌。 根据某潮玩二手交易软件的数据，该系列盲盒价格普遍下跌约50%。 Labubu3.0整 盒（含6个盲盒）回收价从补货前的1500—2800元大幅跌至650-800元，部分隐藏款如"本我"价格从4607元跌至2851元，跌幅超38%。在黄牛 群中，卖家挂价1200元的预售订单无人问津，甚至有群内喊话"700元可收"，市场呈现恐慌性抛售。 一位泡泡玛特内部知情人士称： "近期L ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KAIZEN投资之道 来源：雪球 当前中国消费市场正经历结构性分化与范式重构 。 新消费领域 （ 如潮玩 、 宠物 、 茶饮 、 轻 奢 ） 凭借 " 质价比 " 与 " 情价比 " 的双重驱动 ， 以远超传统消费的增速崛起 ， 而传统消费 （ 如白酒 ） 则因政策收紧 、 需求疲软及估值回调陷入调整 。 以五粮液为代表的白酒板块遭遇多重利空冲击 ， 股价持续低迷 ； 而泡泡玛特等新消费龙头则凭 借IP生态 、 情绪价值与全球化布局 ， 市值突破3500亿港元 ， 成为港股新消费领军企业 。 这 一冰火两重天的格局背后 ， 是消费分级 、 Z世代崛起及情绪经济渗透率提升的深层逻辑 ， 以 下综合分析 ： 一 、 新旧消费市场对比与核心逻辑 1. 传统消费 （ 以白酒五粮液为例 ） 的困境 （ 1 ） 政策压制与需求萎缩 ： 2025年 《 党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例 》 明确禁止公务接 待提供酒水 ， 直接冲击高端白酒政务消费场景 。 尽管政务需求占比已降至5%以下 ， 但政策 信号对市场情绪形成压制 。 （ 2 ...

风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓风险;消费复苏不及预期风险;市场竞争加剧超预期;新市场开发不及预期; 产品获批进度不及预期;数据统计口径风险等。 IP+、AI+：拥抱产业机遇期，变现方式更趋多元化 以三丽鸥中国等作为观察中国IP零售行业的风向标，2021年至今，IP行业景气度高居不下。国内IP产业 从上游优质内容生产，中游IP授权运营，到下游多元消费变现，已经形成了完备且高品质的产业链基 础，且2025年IP全产业链均更加积极拥抱资本市场，获得更大增长动能。持续看好IP+产业链黄金发展 期。AI+消费也逐步实现更多应用场景落地及C端付费转化，如AI在人力资源管理的招聘领域应用最为 成熟，B2B跨境电商平台也率先借力AI实现创收。 线下零售、服务：低位孕育积极变化，高质量龙头底色未变 2024年/2025Q1线下服务、零售等相关行业整体收入增速仍承压，其中量价层面的压力均存在，同时经 营杠杆的存在使得业绩端承压更甚。但低位往往蕴含更多包容性和可能性，伴随着政策托底+行业迎接 低基数，该行跟踪到中观及微观层面已出现消费数据改善趋势。中观层面，2025Q2以来以酒店、人服 等为代表的顺周期行业同比增速已现企稳并有上行趋势 ...

白酒股上涨，皇台酒业涨停，金种子酒、迎驾贡酒涨超5%，酒ETF涨超2.3%，银华食品ETF、华安食品饮料ETF基金、食品饮料ETF天 弘、招商食品饮料ETF、华夏食品饮料ETF、华宝食品ETF涨超1%。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 当日涨跌 | 月内涨跌 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512690.SH | 酒ETF | 2.38% | -6.02% | 鹏华基金 | | 159862.SZ | 食品ETF | 1.38% | -5.51% | 银花真金 | | 516900.SH | 食品饮料ETF基金 | 1.37% | -5.67% | 华安基金 | | 159736.SZ | 食品饮料ETF天弘 | 1.32% | -5.14% | 天弘基金 | | 159843.SZ | 食品饮料ETF | 1.27% | -5.56% | 招商基金 | | 515170.SH | 食品饮料ETF | 1.44% | -5.45% | 华夏其关 | | 515710.SH ** | 食品ETF | 1.18% | -5.29% | 华宝基等 | 中金公司 ...

开源证券表示，中国消费板块的投资价值在当前市场环境下展现出结构性的吸引力。传统消费升级仍在 持续推进，例如家电产品的智能化反映了消费者对高品质生活的追求，而新消费赛道如健康零食、智能 家居等则依托技术创新和对新兴需求的深入洞察，不断开辟增量市场。与此同时，消费者情绪化特征愈 加明显，倾向于通过消费实现心理补偿与情绪释放，并更加重视本土文化的认同感与价值共鸣。这种趋 势与日本自2005年起进入的"第四消费时代"高度相似，表明中国消费市场正在经历从"占有型"向"共享 型""体验型"的系统性转变。 相关产品：港股消费ETF（159735） 消息面上，商务部发布数据显示，线上消费稳步增长，实体零售持续回升向好。1至5月，网上零售额同 比增长8.5%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长6.3%，占社零总额比重为24.5%。实体零售企业不断创新多 元化消费场景、提升居民消费体验，销售保持平稳增长态势。1至5月，限额以上零售业实体店铺零售额 同比增长4.5%，增速较1至4月加快0.1个百分点。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、消费电子、新能源车 ...

三大未来主力消费群体构建消费需求图谱 1)Z世代：通常指出生于1995年至2009年的一代人，人口数量约2.33亿人，占比约16.5%。Z世代注重个 性表达与悦己体验，情绪价值消费、悦己体验消费、时间效率消费等逐步成为核心需求，86.6%Z世代 使用信贷产品亦凸显其较强的消费意愿。2)银发族：通常指60岁及以上的老年群体，2024年我国银发族 人口数量为3.1亿，占比22%。银发族"有钱有闲"特征显著，健康意识不断强化，追求精神满足与自我实 现，健康管理、生活改善、社交、娱乐等消费需求旺盛。3)中产阶级：中国社会科学院GSS调查显示我 国中产阶级人口占比约36%。中产阶级面临职业发展、育儿养老等多重现实压力，普遍忙于工作，近年 来财富增长速度放缓使得他们的支出趋于谨慎，催生了"花钱买时间"偏好及理性平替消费需求。 生活方式重构与价值维度升级共同刻画新消费主线 国信证券发布研报称，建议沿数字经济、悦己消费、情绪价值消费、大健康经济、便利经济、平替经 济、价值观消费七大主线挖掘新消费机会。中国消费品企业已具备成为国际品牌的基础，看好中国消费 品牌出海。当前数字化、个性化、效率化生活方式推动消费呈现"产品场景化"和 ...