期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 9 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：金融搭台科技唱戏 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：重要会议过后，债市情绪缓和 4 | | 蛋白粕：短期利空较多 | 盘面承压下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡偏弱 | 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：国内油脂有所去库，盘面维持震荡运行 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面继续回落 7 | | | 生猪：市场接受度增加 | 盘面有所反弹 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面冲高回落 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：市场情绪反复，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：情绪偏弱，等待冬储启动 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 15 | | 金银：市场聚焦美联储信号 金银波动或加剧 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：价格高位 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [5]. - Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish groups [9]. - The macro - economic situation shows that China's trade data is good, and policies are expected to be more proactive and moderately loose. The global economic situation also has an impact on the market [11]. - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodities in different sectors such as macro - finance, black, non - ferrous, agricultural products, and energy - chemical industries [16][20][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The Politburo meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand [11]. - China's trade data from January to November 2025 shows a 3.6% year - on - year increase in total import and export value, with exports up 6.2% and imports up 0.2%. In November, the growth rate rebounded [11]. - Experts expect China to continue an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate no lower than 4% and an increase in new government debt [11]. - There are discussions about "relaxing restrictions on brokers", and the industry's leverage will be kept within a reasonable range [12]. - The November 2025 passenger car market retail shows a decline in fuel - powered cars and an increase in new energy vehicles. The 2026 car market may face great pressure [12]. - The global storage market is expected to enter a "triple super - cycle" in 2026, with a 98% year - on - year growth in market size [12]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's meeting [12]. - Trump plans to sign an AI regulatory order and launch an agricultural aid program. The US Labor Bureau will delay the release of October PPI data [13]. - Japan's Q3 GDP is revised downwards, and the selling of Japanese government bonds is accelerating [13][14]. 2. Macro - Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt a wide - range oscillating approach. A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and various sectors showed different performances. Policy factors and market data affect the market [16]. 2.2 Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - market center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize and rebound, while ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and cautious in the medium term [18]. 3. Black 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy - wise, focus on the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's deployment. Fundamentally, steel demand is weak in the building materials sector but better in the coil sector. Supply may decline, and inventory is high. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [20]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply may contract due to safety regulations, and demand is affected by the steel industry's profit. There may be a rebound in the far - month 05 contract, but the space is limited [22]. 3.3 Ferroalloys - For silicon iron, a bullish view is maintained; for manganese silicon, a bearish view is held in the medium term. The market is affected by ore supply and production capacity [23]. 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for glass, a long - position can be considered after the market stabilizes. Supply and demand factors affect the prices [25]. 4. Non - Ferrous and New Materials 4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and factors such as production reduction and macro - policies affect the price [27][28]. 4.2 Lead - Lead prices may stop falling and rise in December. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand from battery factories may increase [29][30]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices may oscillate widely in the short term. Supply is increasing, but long - term demand is strong [31]. 4.4 Industrial Silicon - Affected by the new delivery brands of polysilicon, industrial silicon may adjust weakly. Downward space is limited, and short - term long - positions can be considered after an over - decline [32]. 4.5 Polysilicon - There may be a correction due to new delivery brands. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after the correction [33]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Short - term supply pressure is high, and demand is not yet strong. Low - buying opportunities can be sought [36]. 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate downward. Supply is increasing, and cost provides some support [38]. 5.3 Eggs - Near - month contracts may oscillate. Far - month contracts may be supported by the expected decline in inventory but are under pressure due to high valuations [40]. 5.4 Apples - Prices are expected to oscillate. Sales are affected by the supply of other fruits [42]. 5.5 Corn - For the 03 contract, a short - position can be considered. The market is affected by supply - demand mismatch and inventory changes [43]. 5.6 Red Dates - A long - position can be considered for far - month contracts. Prices in production and sales areas are stable [44]. 5.7 Pigs - The spot market is bearish. Supply is increasing, and demand is not strong enough. Short - positions can be held for near - month contracts [45]. 6. Energy - Chemical 6.1 Crude Oil - Supply is in excess. The end of the conflict may lead to a decline in geopolitical premiums. Prices are expected to oscillate [47]. 6.2 Fuel Oil - Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand. A bearish - oscillating approach is recommended [49]. 6.4 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are relatively balanced [50]. 6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Cost and demand affect the market [52]. 6.6 Methanol - Near - month contracts may oscillate weakly, and far - month contracts can be considered for long - positions after de - stocking [53]. 6.7 Caustic Soda - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended. Spot prices are weak, and futures contracts are affected by inventory and demand [55]. 6.8 Asphalt - Demand is approaching the end - stage, and the focus is on the winter - storage price bottom. Prices are affected by crude oil and market expectations [56]. 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Terminal demand is weak. Opportunities in PTA - ethylene glycol spreads and ethylene glycol backwardation can be considered [57]. 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices may turn weak after a high - level period. Supply and demand factors affect the market [58]. 6.11 Offset Printing Paper - A bearish approach is recommended. Supply is in excess, and cost provides some support [59]. 6.12 Pulp - Prices may oscillate weakly. Import volume is increasing, and spot trading is weak [60]. 6.13 Logs - The market is bearish. Inventory is expected to increase, and prices are under pressure [61]. 6.14 Urea - Spot prices may oscillate weakly. Futures prices are affected by spot trading and coal prices [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of enhancing quality and efficiency in the context of China's economic policies for 2026, as discussed in the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8, 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights that the meeting acknowledged the achievements of the past five years and confirmed that the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan will be successfully met, indicating a stable economic outlook [2] - The policy direction for the upcoming period is characterized by a focus on "better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade struggles," reflecting an increased awareness of external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The macro policy tone continues to prioritize stability while shifting from "promoting stability through progress" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a more balanced approach to economic management [2] - The report outlines that the emphasis will be on leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance their integrated effects, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [2] - The meeting reiterated the commitment to an "active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy," maintaining a focus on stability and quality in economic growth [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand remains the primary task, with a clear directive to "build a strong domestic market," which is expected to lead to policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] - The report notes that there will be a dual focus on both expanding demand and optimizing supply, suggesting a coordinated approach to economic policy in the coming year [2] - The urgency for the development of the technology sector is highlighted, with a call to "accelerate the cultivation of new driving forces," indicating a shift towards fostering competitive emerging industries [2] Group 4 - The report suggests that the absence of explicit mentions regarding the capital and real estate markets does not imply a significant policy shift for the A-share market, as existing policies will continue to support market stability [2] - It is anticipated that the market will transition from being primarily driven by policy and capital to being driven by fundamental earnings growth, indicating a maturation of market dynamics [2] - The current phase of the A-share market is described as a "bull market continuation," with expectations for long-term capital inflows and a recovery in price levels, domestic demand, and innovation-driven profit growth [2]

（原标题：南财早新闻｜事关2026年经济工作，中央政治局会议重磅定调） 1、12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。详情>> 2、12月8日，《中共广东省委关于制定广东省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》正式印发。规划建议系统总结了"十四五"时期广东 发展取得的重大成就，并对未来5年发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。详情>> 1、中国信托业协会将于近期就《家族信托业务指引》征求意见。征求意见稿明确，单纯追求保值增值不属于家族信托。监管评级过低将暂停新增 家族信托业务，严禁低价内卷、商业诋毁等不正当竞争行为。 2、中船集团与中国远洋海运集团在上海完成了新造船项目的合作签约，金额超500亿元，这是我国船企签订的国内单次合作签约最高金额的订 单。 3、天孚通信：正在香港联交所发行H股上市事项。 2、海关总署：2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长3.6%。其中，出口24. ...

NO.2央行公开市场开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作 NO.1 中共中央政治局：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效 每经编辑：张益铭 据央视新闻，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全 面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 NO.4美联储议息会议在即，市场预期再次降息可能性大 据央视新闻，美国联邦储备委员会定于9日和10日举行货币政策例会并公布议息决定。市场普遍认为， 美联储再次降息可能性较大。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25 个基点，当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。 点评：市场普遍预期美联储将在即将到来的议息会议上再次降息，这种预期显然受近期疲软的就业数据 影响。持续的降息显示出美联储致力于通过货币政策刺激经济的决心，旨在应对经济增速放缓及全球经 济不确定性。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每 ...

今年以来，我国实施"更加积极有为"的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向 好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 值得注意的是，明年在加大逆周期调节力度的同时，也将加大跨周期调节。"总体上，'跨周期'提法的 回归意味着货币政策视角更重长期。"华泰证券研究所所长张继强在近期研报中指出，明年转型诉求不 减，增长诉求同样强，因此政策需要兼顾短期与长远，更要为未来几年的风险挑战做足准备。 根据本次会议要求，明年在宏观政策实施过程中，还将注重"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争""增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"等。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅对此表示，明年财政、货币政策存在相机抉择的可能性，即一旦 经济出现明显波动，将通过增量政策实现逆周期和跨周期的调节，确保经济平稳运行。明年还需要将国 内经济与国际经贸形势进行整体考虑，一旦外部压力加大，或将相机进行内部政策的对冲。 （文章来源：证券时报） "继续实施"今年财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连 ...

今年以来，我国实施"更加积极有为"的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向 好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏观 政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政政策有望加力提效。中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙 学工表示，明年更加积极的财政政策要加大中央政府支出力度，可以考虑将预算赤字率提高到4.5%， 继续增发特别国债，确保中央政府持续发力。 值得注意的是，明年在加大逆周期调节力度的同时，也将加大跨周期调节。"总体上，'跨周期'提法的 回归意味着货币政策视角更重长期。"华泰证券研究所所长张继强在近期研报中指出，明年转型诉求不 减，增长诉求同样强，因此政策需要兼顾短期与长远，更要为未来几年的风险挑战做足准备。 从货币政策看，"适度宽松"的货币政策意味着明年货币政策既有"宽松"，也要"适度"。财信证券 ...

作者 |第一财经 杜川 2026年的货币政策基调已经明确。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 货币政策延续了过去一段时间的提法，即"适度宽松"、"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。与7月召开的 政治局会议相比，表述出现微调：删去"保持流动性充裕"、"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并新增了加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度的表述。 实际上，不久前，央行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中就提到，下阶段，做好逆周期和 跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 近一段时间，货币政策不断发力，央行先后下调7天期逆回购、LPR（贷款市场报价利率）、SLF（常 备借贷便利）、MLF（中期借贷便利）利率，创设临时隔夜正逆回购，MLF的政策利率色彩淡化，7天 期逆回购操作利率将发挥基准政策利率功能，新的调控框架已基本成型。 从2025年的经验来看，货币政策给出了适度宽松的定调，今年5月央行推出 ...