Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, the bond market rebounded, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, most convertible bond issues rose, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined, and yields of 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and municipalities, aiming to expand the cross - border financing scale of enterprises investing in green development or low - carbon transformation projects and improve the facilitation of green foreign debt business [3]. - The Ministry of Finance answered questions on regulating the construction and operation of government - social capital cooperation (PPP) stock projects, focusing on ensuring the completion of ongoing projects [3]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion [4]. - **International News** - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a three - year high, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a two - month low. The preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, a nine - month high. The price index reached a three - year high [5]. - The US labor market cooled significantly, with the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [6]. - Two Fed officials suggested that there may be no interest rate cut in September [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 21, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI October crude futures up 1.29% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent October crude futures up 1.24% to $67.67 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $3381.6 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.59% to $2.807 per ounce [8]. II. Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On August 21, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 253 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 124.3 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 fell 0.99bp to 1.464%, and DR007 fell 5.40bp to 1.514% [11]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 21, the bond market rebounded. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.90bp to 1.7610%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 fell 3.45bp to 1.8530% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds were tendered on August 21, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 21, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell more than 33%, while "21 Shanghai Shimao MTN002" rose more than 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced events such as being listed as被执行人, failing to repay loans, and delaying the disclosure of semi - annual reports [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 21, the A - share market fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.06% and 0.46% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.42%, 0.31%, and 0.58% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - Some convertible bonds announced events such as approaching the conditions for downward revision of conversion prices and early redemption [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 3.74%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.29% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.75%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively [27].

Group 1 - The recent movements in the global bond market are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with Powell hinting at a potential interest rate cut as early as next month [1] - The U.S. Treasury prices have risen significantly, leading to the steepest yield curve steepening in nearly four years, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Market skepticism remains regarding the extent and sustainability of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing indicating an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting [4] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting key employment and inflation data to confirm the monetary policy direction, indicating that future market movements will depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to 3.7%, close to the low point earlier this month, following a jobs report that showed a notable slowdown in employment growth [4] - The interest rate swap market is beginning to price in the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, with some investors even betting on three cuts [4] Group 3 - Despite a positive reaction in the bond market to Powell's statements, the magnitude of this response remains limited due to conflicting economic signals [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, while inflation remains at a high level, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh risks when considering policy easing [6] - The upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index will be crucial; if inflation pressures remain strong, market confidence in further easing may be challenged [4][6] Group 4 - Attention is also required for the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions covering two-year, five-year, and seven-year bonds, as investor subscription rates will reflect long-term interest rate outlooks and gauge risk appetite [6] - The uncertainty persists, as even with the Fed's easing measures last year, economic resilience led to a pause in actions at the beginning of this year [6] - The bond market's current positive response to Powell's remarks is contingent on future data performance, with employment and inflation being key determinants of the Fed's policy path [6]

"纽约Talk·郭胜北华尔街前线洞察" 年度专栏 重磅来袭！立即订阅 本栏目嘉宾老师介绍： 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔意外在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放鸽派信号，导致美国三大股指大幅上涨？ 鲍威尔这次为何不重视通胀，反而大提就业压力？ 9月美联储将已经成为定局了吗？ 降息后，美国财政就能万事大吉了吗？ 本期纽约Talk，GSB奖台基金创始人、原德意志银行董事总经理【郭胜北】将带您用一节课鲍威尔立场转变背后最需要关注的市场变量 纽约 Talk 第2季 分享在美国的所见所闻,打通经济数据与日常生活之问的壁垒; 3.华尔街回忆录 对过去郭胜北亲身经历的重大金融事件进行复盘, 以史为鉴,对未来市场进行展望; © 四大内容品类 1. 全球金融热点直击 针对市场突发事件及美联储议息会议等重要会议 第一时间分享其深刻的见解 2.华尔街见闻录 4. 复盘笔记 定期分享其在日常交易中的思考与见解, 并分享使用的交易工具及有价值的套利策略。 近期内容预告 1. 宏观博弈的整体性思考 -- 2025年市场 交易主线 2. 大宗商品市场的新机遇 -- 2024与2025 年为何不同? 3. 主权基金行为对于市场影响的解读 33年交易老将 华尔 ...

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属低位上行，沪金主力收涨0.46%，沪银主力收涨1.89%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月零售销售强 劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至 80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压， 人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金 ...

上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话，给全球黄金投资者打了一针强心剂！他明确表 示 "通胀若持续降温，将考虑降息"，这番 "鸽声" 瞬间点燃市场热情，金价应声上涨近 1%，重返 1940 美元上方。 但奇怪的是，市场并未完全 "买账"。黄金涨势在 1950 美元关口前明显遇阻，多空双方陷入微妙拉锯。 为何投资者仍 "悬着一颗心"？ UNFX分析指出三大关键矛盾： 若全球衰退风险缓解（如中国经济刺激见效），黄金的 "避险光环" 可能褪色。 三、技术面关键位争夺 1950 美元是黄金多空分水岭：突破则打开 2000 美元空间，受阻则可能回踩 1900 支撑。 当前金价处于 "上下两难" 的三角整理末端，急需新催化剂打破平衡。 一、鸽派预期 VS 顽固通胀 鲍威尔虽松口降息可能，但强调 "通胀仍远高于目标"，暗示政策不会急转弯。 本周五美国 PCE 通胀数据若超预期，可能瞬间扑灭降息幻想，黄金将首当其冲。 二、美元走弱 VS 避险需求降温 美联储暂停加息虽压制美元，但欧洲经济疲软（尤其德国）反向支撑美元韧性。 UNFX 策略建议： 风险提示：谨防地缘冲突（如俄乌、台海）突发升级引发的波动陷阱。 黄金市场 ...

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 亚市早盘，黄金震荡微跌，目前交投于3366美元附近。上周五金价大涨1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69美元，收报3371.78美元，因美联储主席鲍威尔在 杰克森霍尔年度央行研讨会上的讲话，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场对通胀的担忧，同时点燃了投资者对9月降息的热切期待。这不仅推动金价强势反弹， 更让美元汇率大幅下挫，黄金市场迎来新一轮看涨浪潮。 本周重点关注：纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等美联储官员讲话、美国7月耐用品订单月率初值、美国8月谘商会消费者信心指数、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率 修正值、美国截至8月23日当周初请失业金人数和美国7月PCE数据。 【8.25黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健回落3356-3359美元附近做多单，止损3351美元，止盈看3375-3380美元 2，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上周五，黄金亚欧盘震荡下跌，美盘跌至3321.4美元触底反弹，晚间10点，鲍威尔讲话后，黄金大幅上涨，最高涨至3378.7美元，日线收大阳线，且站上 了中轨，KDJ指标金叉，附图拐头向上，MACD指标快慢线在0轴附近金叉，绿色空头动能缩量，走势 ...

做投资就像打一场战役，一定要在战役开始前定好策略，不仅要在战场上有优势的时候要怎么扩大优势，趁胜追击，而且还要制定若不敌该怎么办，怎么保 存实力撤退后再定计谋，再战。无论战争也好投资也罢，不是每一次的背水而战都能迎来胜利，历史上也只是有几次背水而战胜利的结果，就好比投资市场 里面本来趋势已经走出相反的信号，还去奢求按照自己的意愿去走，一旦有这样心理的朋友，一定要注意，此毛病不改将会被投资市场所淹没。提前预判， 先人一步，抢占先机，轻仓顺势，严格风控，轻松把握，愉快投资。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一欧市早盘，黄金小幅下跌，目前交投在3363美元附近。但就在上周五，金价可是上演了精彩逆袭，单日大涨1%，盘中更是一举冲上 3378美元的两周高位，最终收报3371美元。这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪 称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。受此影响，美元汇率应声大跌，黄金市场瞬间被看涨情绪包围。 业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元走弱和债市调整，为 ...

Core Insights - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic data and events for the upcoming week, focusing on the U.S. GDP revision and PCE price index, and their potential market impacts [1][5] Economic Data and Events Summary - **Monday**: Market reactions to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the global central bank conference are anticipated, with a focus on Germany's IFO business climate index, expected to rise for the sixth consecutive month but at a slowing pace, and U.S. new home sales and Dallas Fed business activity index [3] - **Tuesday**: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its August monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into future interest rate paths following the third rate cut of the year. U.S. durable goods orders are expected to improve after a significant drop last month, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is projected to remain below 100 [3] - **Wednesday**: Key data includes Australia's CPI for July, which if below 2% could reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the RBA. Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index will be monitored for potential further deterioration. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is expected to influence tech stocks and the broader market [3] - **Thursday**: The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate revision is crucial, with the initial estimate showing a 3% increase driven by trade account improvements and consumer confidence recovery, although investment declines offset some growth. Market attention will be on whether the latest data will adjust this figure [4] - **Friday**: Japan's July employment report will be scrutinized for unemployment stability and labor market tightness, which may support expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike next year. Germany's employment report and CPI for August will also be key, alongside the U.S. July core PCE price index, which could indicate ongoing inflation pressures affecting Fed rate cut expectations [4]

什么意思？以前大家更担心通胀，但是现在，就业的下行风险在加大。这种情况一旦持续下去，美联储 就可能要考虑降息了。 他讲得很直接，说劳动力市场看起来还算平衡，但这个平衡不是健康的，是因为劳动力供给和需求都在 放缓。换句话说，企业招人的劲头没以前大了，工人也没那么多。这种情况下，就业数据表面上稳，但 背后其实隐藏着压力。 鲍威尔的逻辑是，如果失业率和其他指标都还算稳定，美联储就可以更谨慎地考虑怎么调整政策。但别 忘了，现在的利率区间还是偏紧的，这本身就在压制经济。所以风险一旦转向，就得重新思考立场。 再说到通胀。他提到关税的影响。鲍威尔的观点是，关税会让物价有一次性上涨，但这个过程不是立刻 体现，而是慢慢渗透进经济。 他强调，这种影响是有限的，不会形成长期的高通胀趋势。也就是说，关税带来的物价压力可能会有， 但不至于让美联储长时间担心通胀失控。 大家好，今天咱们来聊聊美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上说了些什么。这个讲话，市场都盯 得很紧，因为里面可能藏着接下来降息的信号。 综合来看，现在的局面很棘手：短期内通胀风险还是在上行，但就业的风险在下行。这就让美联储陷入 两难。你要说只盯通胀，那可能继续保持紧政策； ...

黄金上周逆袭，U型反转调整后，再次上演绝地反击，整体逆袭70美金，多头强势归来，下个目标想着3400挺进。 我们7月和8月，整体策略持续稳健获利。 | | | | | 【8位数黄金团队】1标准手跟单情况 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 間期 | 时间 | 品种 | 方向 | 进场 | 止损 | 止盈 | 平台 | 净收获 | 净盈亏 | | | 6月19日 金 | | ਡੇ | 3348 | 3343 | 3378 | 3378 | 30 | 3000 | | 6月 | 6月26日 金 | | 2 | 3347 | 3353 | 3318 | 3321 | 25 | 2500 | | | 6月27日 金 | | ਵੇ | 3271 | 3266 | 3290 | 3279 | 6 | 600 | | | 6月30日 金 | | 22 | 3297 | 3300 | 3275 | 3276 | 20 | 2000 | | | 7月3日 金 | | 후 | 3339 | 3345 | 3300 ...