Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated that monetary policy decisions by the FOMC are not based on a hypothetical neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasized that the FOMC does not rely on a presumed neutral interest rate when making monetary policy decisions [1]

美联储哈克：不会根据中性利率制定政策决定。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that policy decisions will not be based on the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasizes the importance of not tying policy decisions to the neutral interest rate, indicating a more flexible approach to monetary policy [1]

新华财经北京6月5日电（王姝睿） 欧洲央行日内如期降息，强化了该央行在经济下行风险中的宽松倾 向。市场尤其注意到欧洲央行对通胀预期的下修，这将引发有关通胀低于2%目标的风险以及进一步降 息预期的讨论。 欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2%，为该央行认为既不抑制也不促进经济的"中性"水平的中 间值。主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率分别从2.4%和2.65%下调至2.15%和2.4%，处于2023年初以来的 最低水平。 最新的欧洲央行季度经济预测显示，2025年和2026年的GDP增长前景将略有放缓，总体通胀水平将下 降。具体预测如下： 预计欧元区2025年核心通胀率为2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.9%。（3月预期分别为2.2%、2.0%、 1.9%） 预计欧元区2025年通胀率为2.0%，2026年为1.6%，2027年为2.0%。（3月预期分别为2.3%、1.9%、 2.0%） 预计欧元区2025年GDP增长率为0.9%，2026年为1.1%，2027年为1.3%。（3月预期分别为0.9%、1.2%、 1.3%） 富兰克林邓普顿欧洲固定收益部门负责人David Zahn表示，欧洲央行政策立 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们尚未讨论中性利率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the eighth rate cut in this cycle due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB is anticipated to announce a rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts expected in September as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [1]. - ECB policymakers, both hawks and doves, indicate that they have nearly completed the process of lowering borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [5]. - Economists predict a pause in rate cuts next month, but caution that prolonged inaction could lead markets to believe the ECB has halted rate reductions entirely [7]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain its previous economic forecasts despite significant changes in the global trade landscape [8]. - The euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are exerting downward pressure on prices, providing relief to businesses affected by weak demand [8]. - The ECB is preparing various scenario forecasts to better understand potential future developments, with the likelihood of the baseline forecast being less than 50% [10]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meetings between U.S. and EU officials, including discussions on defense spending and tariffs, are critical for the economic outlook of the eurozone [11]. - The potential for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP, as requested by the U.S., could significantly impact the eurozone economy [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations and the ability of governments to implement large-scale defense and infrastructure plans adds to the unpredictability of the economic environment [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].

Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future supply shocks may lead to more volatile inflation, prompting a reassessment of the monetary policy framework, particularly the "average inflation targeting" strategy introduced in 2020 [1] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.5% and 4.75%, with Powell emphasizing the need to ensure inflation is truly under control before considering rate cuts [2] - The market is uncertain about the Fed's next steps, as inflation has decreased but remains above the target, leading to fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts [5] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. government debt has reached $36.19 trillion, exceeding the debt ceiling of $33.1 trillion, creating significant interest payment pressures [3] - Calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are increasing, as lower rates could alleviate the government's borrowing burden, but this could also lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation risks [3] Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, but the Fed believes the labor market is still too "hot," indicating a desire to cool it down without causing significant job losses [4] - Powell's approach aims to balance high interest rates to control inflation while maintaining employment levels [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The comparison to the 1970s under Chairman Burns highlights the risks of aggressive rate cuts leading to uncontrollable inflation, with historical data showing inflation rates averaging 9% during that period [7][11] - Current inflation rates are at 2.9% with a core CPI of 3.4%, indicating that inflation is still above the Fed's target [12] Group 5: Political and Market Pressures - Former President Trump has publicly called for immediate rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious stance, as companies like Ford and Mattel lower earnings forecasts amid economic uncertainty [6] - Wall Street analysts are warning of potential recession risks, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 35% chance of recession within a year, increasing the pressure for the Fed to act [6]