关税中的宏观经济与资本市场 20250519 摘要 • 中美贸易谈判在日内瓦取得初步成果，双方虽有关税不平等（中国对美 10%，美国对华 30%），但均希望尽快达成协议，以避免美国缺货和中 国出口波动，短期内中国对美出口运输已恢复常态。 • 中国应对贸易战的策略是有准备地主动出击，通过各部门的迅速行动维稳 股市和金融市场，显示出政策制定上的章法，并期待通过这些政策实现稳 定和更好的结果。 • 中国宏观经济形势仍存不稳因素，房地产市场下行，消费相对低迷，内需 不振，一线城市消费下降与二线城市稳健形成反差，政策仍有改善空间， 解决收入和就业问题是关键。 • 中国出口情况有所好转，企业积极发货，美东、美西航线班次恢复正常， 主要为日用品和圣诞节商品，抓住 90 天宽限期，4、5 月出口超预期，但 内需未明显恢复，就业压力大。 • 中国政府采取以旧换新措施刺激内需，耐用消费品额度提升至 3,000 元， 但效果有限，应加大服务领域以旧换新或补贴力度，如旅游和演唱会消费 券，以更有效提振消费。 Q&A 今年第二季度即将结束，展望第三季度及下半年，资本市场的主要影响因素有 哪些？ 下半年资本市场的走向主要受三条主线影响： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing global risks [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that rising inflation and interest rates are contributing to economic instability [1] - It mentions that geopolitical tensions are exacerbating the uncertainty in the global market [1] - The report indicates that these factors could lead to a slowdown in economic growth across various regions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing China's modernization and fulfilling the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [4]. Group 1: Planning and Decision-Making - Emphasis on scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making processes in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The need for top-level design and public consultation to gather diverse opinions and experiences from the populace [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transitional phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, facing both strategic opportunities and risks [7][8]. - Key economic issues to consider during planning include growth, demand, and supply [7]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The importance of high-quality development and the need to upgrade supply, demand, and efficiency structures to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [8][9]. - The role of technological innovation and new industries, such as AI and biotechnology, in driving future growth [8]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is highlighted as a necessary requirement for modernization, aiming to enhance planning, construction, and governance at both urban and rural levels [9]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Governance - The necessity for improved macroeconomic governance and policy consistency in response to changing external conditions and internal economic demands [11][12]. - The ongoing evolution of fiscal policy since 2008, with a focus on optimizing its effectiveness for growth and risk management [12]. Group 6: Trust Industry Development - The trust industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development paths and align its strategies with the broader goals of China's modernization [13].

Core Insights - Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.63% year-on-year, indicating stable business growth despite a complex economic environment [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.01% increase from the previous year, suggesting improved profitability through effective cost control and market share expansion [3] - However, the net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 13.14% to 5.21 billion yuan, highlighting potential pressures on core business performance [4] Financial Performance - Revenue growth was steady, with quarterly revenues of 58.39 billion yuan, 54.15 billion yuan, 65.23 billion yuan, and 58.51 billion yuan, showing a balanced performance throughout the year [2] - Basic earnings per share increased by 2.04% to 1.00 yuan, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - Research and development expenses rose significantly by 24.20% to 1.70 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and competitiveness [4][6] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 3.41% to 22.73 billion yuan, indicating potential changes in cash collection speed or cost control [5] - Investment cash flow net amount improved significantly to -20.90 billion yuan from -38.81 billion yuan, suggesting a slowdown in fixed asset investments [5] - Financing cash flow net amount decreased by 21.11% to 7.82 billion yuan, indicating adjustments in the company's financing strategy [5] R&D and Personnel - The number of R&D personnel reached 3,779, accounting for 9.87% of the total workforce, providing a solid talent base for innovation [7] - The educational background of R&D staff includes 16 PhDs, 113 Master's degrees, and 3,650 with Bachelor's degrees or below, supporting a diverse skill set [7] Overall Assessment - Hengli Petrochemical maintained revenue and net profit growth in 2024, but the decline in net profit after excluding non-recurring items and operating cash flow warrants attention [4][5] - The significant increase in R&D investment is expected to drive future growth, while the company must navigate various risks related to macroeconomic conditions, raw material prices, and regulatory requirements [9][10][12]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, down from 7.7% in March, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.4%[3] - High-tech industries maintained a strong performance with a 10% year-on-year growth in April, although slightly down from 10.7% in March[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4% in April, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter[3] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[3] - Jewelry retail sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than the previous month's 10.6% growth[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales also showed strong growth at 38.8% year-on-year in April, up from 35.1% in March[3] Employment and External Factors - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions[3] - Despite external pressures, domestic demand indicators such as employment and retail sales did not show signs of a sharp decline, suggesting resilience in the economy[3] - The report highlights potential risks from export-driven growth strategies that may affect the second half of the year[3]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 19 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | | 0531-81678626 | | | 客服电话： | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 公司网址： | | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | | | 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | | | 备注: | | --- | | 1. 趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 | | 0 当年大手工艺十六十十十十六十十六年十年期化四八十四八三 | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 偏空 | 農汤 | 偏多 | | 锰硅 | 焦煤 | 豆粕 | | PVC | 菜粕 | 玻璃 | | 聚丙烯 | 护金 | 一 | | 沪铜 | 電池 | 鸡蛋 | | 甲醇 | 菜油 | 焦炭 | | 沪锌 | 沪银 | 白糖 | ...

长江期货棉纺产业周报 短期供应偏紧 期价震荡偏强 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-19 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 周度观点 整体观点：国内目前供需形势，4月底商业库存只有415万吨，工业库存95万吨，按照后面每月65万吨消费的话， 到了8月底商业库存只有155万吨，去年同期是214万吨，23年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是163万吨，显然今年 比23年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直 偏强就是这个原因，棉花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形势，09合约偏强， 短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了01合约，新棉，目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地200万亩，去 年种植番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至750万吨，新年度就宽松了些，所以也限制 ...

宏观和大类资产配置周报 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布 我们将后续大类资产配置顺序调整为：股票>大宗>债券>货币 宏观要闻回顾 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.06%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 2.21%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 4.67%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 2BP 至 1.24%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 1.68%，活跃十年国债 期货本周下跌 0.53%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿元，较去年同期多增 1.22 万亿元，较 3 月少增 4.73 万亿元，略低于万得一致预期的 1.26 万亿元。4 月社融存量同比增长 8.70%，较 3 月上升了 0.37 个百分点，略低于万得一致预期的 8.80%。4 月新增人民币贷款 884 亿元，较去年同期少增 2465 亿元，较 3 月少增 3.74 万亿元。去年同期社融基数较低。较去年同期多增的是政府债券、汇票、 企业债、股票融资和外币贷款，较去年同期少增的是人民币贷款、信托贷 款和委托贷款。我们认 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a structural positive change, with infrastructure cement usage exceeding the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonally high level, with the chemical chain operating at historical highs[2] - Demand in construction is weak, while automotive and home appliance demand is improving, with rolling sales of passenger cars showing a year-on-year increase[3] Price Trends - International commodity prices show a mixed trend, with oil and gold prices declining while base metals are rising[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a slight rebound, with rebar prices recovering and some chemical and building material prices showing signs of rebound[4] - Food prices are trending downward, with agricultural product prices fluctuating downwards and pork prices remaining stable[4] Real Estate and Liquidity - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, although first-tier cities show improvement, with transaction area in major cities up 2% week-on-week[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen show a marginal year-on-year decline, while Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions continue at historical highs[5] - Liquidity is tightening, with funding rates declining; as of May 16, R007 was at 1.63% and DR007 at 1.64%[5] Export Performance - High-frequency export data has not significantly rebounded, with May exports expected to be around 0% year-on-year as of May 17[6] - Port throughput data indicates a potential decline in exports, with daily export transport data showing some resilience but not a substantial recovery[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[6]

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for April on May 19, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [2] - CICC estimates that the fiscal subsidy scale for the old-for-new policy exceeded 38 billion yuan in April, maintaining a strong impact on retail sales growth at 3.3 percentage points [2] - The retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to grow by 14.4% year-on-year in April, with overall retail sales growth projected at around 5.5% [2] Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set for May 19 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3] - Analysts predict a drop of approximately 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.2 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in savings of about 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [3] LPR Announcement - The latest 1-year and 5-year LPR will be announced on May 20, with the previous rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [4] - Following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, the LPR is expected to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [4] Stock Unlocking - A total of 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from May 19 to May 23, with 8 stocks having a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are: SiTeWei-W (7.007 billion yuan), XinDian Software (4.865 billion yuan), and YanTian Port (4.459 billion yuan) [6][7] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [10]