撰写品种：沥青 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 沥青周度报告 一、本周沥青期货行情回顾 本周沥青期货主力合约 BU2506 呈现先扬后抑的态势。主力合约开盘价为 3369 元 / 吨，周内最高价触及 3430 元 / 吨，最低价下探至 3345 元 / 吨，最终收盘价 为 3401 元 / 吨，较上周收盘价下跌 5 元，跌幅 0.15%。结算价为 3385 元 / 吨。 成交量方面：本周累计成交约 85 万手，日均成交 17 万手，较上周活跃度有所下 降。持仓量环比上周减持 19448 手，收于 14.36 万手，显示市场资金参与度有所降低。 供给端：国内 54 家主要沥青企业厂库库存为 89.7 万吨，环比下降 3.6 万吨。 不过，国内 104 家贸易商库存为 194.6 万吨，虽环比仅下降 0.2 万吨，但整体库存 水平仍处于高位。 需求端：尽管天气持续转暖，理论上有利于道路施工等下游需求的释放，但实际情 况并不乐观。重交沥青开工率仅为 28.5%，虽较上周略有上升，但仍处于历史同期较低 水平。改性沥青产能利用率为 7.2%，环比增加 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 土地溢价率明显回落——每周经济观察第 17 期 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上： 1、耐用品消费：4 月前三周，汽车零售继续回落。4 月第三周，乘用车零零 售增速 17%，前值 13%。4 月前 20 日，乘用车零售增速同比 11.8%。3 月全月， 乘用车零售增速同比+14.4%。 2、土地：周度溢价率明显回落。截至 4 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 4.27%， 近三周平均为 7.7%；3 月全月为 13.24%；2 月全月为 10.72%。 3、水泥发运率有所回落。截至 4 月 25 日当周，水泥发运率为 40.33%，持平 上周，但低于 4 月初，去年同期为 40.5%。 4、贸易：近一周美国进口额与进口量下滑。4 月 24 日当周，美国进口金额和 进口集装箱量均出现较大幅度下滑，分别环比上周下降约 27.8%、24.3%，其 中，从中国进口金额环比-27.3%，从中国进口集装箱量环比-29.1%。 5、物价：金价回调，油价走弱。COMEX 黄金收于 3272.2 美金/盎司，下跌 1.5%；美油收于 63.02 美元/桶，下跌 2.6%，布油收于 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced slight gains with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% and the CSI 300 up 0.4% for the week[2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.7%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.7%[2] - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 1.15 trillion CNY, up 3.4% from the previous week[2] Sector Performance - Among 31 industry indices, 24 sectors rose, led by automotive, beauty, and basic chemicals, while food and beverage and real estate sectors lagged[2] - The automotive sector's turnover rate ZScore increased, indicating stronger trading activity[2] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 12.3, with a ZScore of -0.4, indicating it is below the historical average[2] - The ChiNext's P/E ratio was significantly higher at 37.2, also with a ZScore of -0.4[2] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 1-year government bonds rose by 2.0 basis points to 1.45%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.2 basis points to 1.66%[3] - The market sentiment for bonds fluctuated, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, which fell to approximately 4.29%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.4% to 99.58, while the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 0.2% to 7.29[3] - Gold prices decreased by 0.2% to 3319 USD/ounce, reflecting market adjustments following geopolitical concerns[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in liquidity and economic fundamentals, which could impact market stability[3]

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货螺纹钢月报 螺纹钢：短期情绪回暖 中期仍有压力 螺纹钢 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 螺纹钢：短期情绪回暖 中期仍有压力 宏观面，人民银行发布一季度金融数据显示，2025 年一季度整体社融增量 由政府债券支持，显示目前私人部门需求仍相对疲软，4 月开始我国面临更加复 杂的发布环境的背景下，政府加杠杆仍将在大类资产价格表现中发挥重要作用。 居民端信贷，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元，短贷少增 67 亿元，中长期贷款有 所回升，但短期消费需求有待修复。从价格表现来看，春节之后，市场整体表现 疲弱，我们将延续上一期报告的观点："价格压力持续存在"。相较于 CPI 部分 分项的积极变化，3 月份，PPI 环比、同比跌幅均有扩大。总体来看，工业品出 厂价格下行压力比居民消费价格压力更甚。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可〔2012〕116 号 海外宏观，4 月以来，伴随特朗普政府对关税的不断加码，中美两方制裁与 反制措施的不断升级，截至目前，白宫确认，美国对中国关税总税率为 145%中 方宣布自 4 月 12 日起将对美加征关税由 84%提升到 125%。当地时 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 主要结论 焦煤焦炭：需求边际回升 短线反弹 宏观面，人民银行发布一季度金融数据显示，2025 年一季度整体社融增量 由政府债券支持，显示目前私人部门需求仍相对疲软，4 月开始我国面临更加复 杂的发布环境的背景下，政府加杠杆仍将在大类资产价格表现中发挥重要作用。 居民端信贷，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元，短贷少增 67 亿元，中长期贷款有 所回升，但短期消费需求有待修复。从价格表现来看，春节之后，市场整体表现 疲弱，我们将延续上一期报告的观点："价格压力持续存在"。相较于 CPI 部分分 项的积极变化，3 月份，PPI 环比、同比跌幅均有扩大。总体来看，工业品出厂 价格下行压力比居民消费价格压力更甚。 海外宏观，4 月以来，伴随特朗普政府对关税的不断加码，中美两方制裁与 反制措施的不断升级，截至目前，白宫确认，美国对中国关税总税率为 145%中 方宣布自 4 月 12 日起将对美加征关税由 84%提升到 125%。当地时间 4 月 17 日， 美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他不想继续提高对中国的关税了，因为这可能会使 两国之间的贸易陷入停滞。特朗普政府的反复使得海外局势不确定性增加， ...

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）突破94000美元关口后，比特币再度回落。4月24日，全球币价网站CoinGecko数据显示，在历经了前一日的猛涨之后，全网市值排 名前十的加密货币全线下跌。其中，比特币跌破92000美元，瑞波币、狗狗币跌幅靠前，均超过6%。 在市场多则消息刺激下，比特币价格昨日一度突破94000美元，达到3月初以来的最高交易水平，日内最高涨幅接近5%。同期加密货币市场多数走高。较大 幅度的涨幅也加剧了爆仓风险，Coinglass数据显示，4月23日，加密货币市场共有超16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为3.71亿美元，其中超过2亿美元为空单爆 仓。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普发行的Meme币Trump（即"特朗普币"）官方网站在当地时间周三宣布，特朗普将于5月22日在华盛顿附近高尔夫俱乐部邀请持币 量最大的220名持有者共进晚餐，并宣称有机会聆听特朗普谈论关于加密货币的未来。不仅如此，持币量前25名的投资者还将获特朗普私人接待以及参观白 宫等"特别版"Vip之旅。 消息一经发出，迅速推高了"特朗普币"的价格，涨幅一度超过40%，也带动了比特币等加密货币走高。在中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁看 来， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2656 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年一季度全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1% 2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 按消费类型分，3月份，商品零售额36705亿元，同比增长5.9%；餐饮收入4235亿元，增长5.6%。1— 3月份，商品零售额110644亿元，增长4.6%；餐饮收入14027亿元，增长4.7%。 按零售业态分，1—3月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长9.9%、4.6%、1.2%、6.7%、1.4%。 79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%， 汽车制造 业为71.9% ，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 (来源:国家统计局 ) 2025年3月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.9% 3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增长5.9%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿 元，增长6.0%。 1—3月份，社会消费品零售 ...

美联储古尔斯比表示，美联储需要着眼于全年局势的发展，关税政策只是其中一个因素；关税对宏观经 济的影响可能有限。 ...

国家统计局4月16日公布的数据显示，初步核算，2025年一季度国内生产总值318758亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.4%，环比增长1.2%。具体从生产看，一季度全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点。一季度服务业增加值同比增长5.3%，比上年全年加快0.3个百分 点。从需求看，一季度社会消费品零售总额124671亿元，同比增长4.6%，比上年全年加快1.1个百分 点。 谈及物价形势，盛来运强调，要全面准确地看待当前物价低位运行的态势。这两年，无论是CPI还是PPI 都在低位运行，既有国内外宏观经济形势复杂变化的因素，也有中国经济处于转型发展阶段、新旧动能 转换带来的影响。相关产业的调整会对相关产品价格带来一系列影响，要全面客观看待近期价格的低位 运行，中国价格的波动运行具有明显的阶段性和结构性特点。"随着经济回升、总需求回暖，促进价格 合理回升的政策效应将继续显现。"他说。 恒泰期货首席经济学家魏刚在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，一季度国内经济数据呈现多个亮点，一是 GDP表现超预期，经济硬数据与好于季节性的软数据PMI相互印证，反映出国内经济开始温和复苏。二 是从3月看， ...