一般情况下，日本银行会对债市进行干预，不过主要聚焦在十年期国债。日本银行对超长期债市的干预 仅仅是象征性的。从去年开始，日本央行便致力于货币环境正常化，但是庞大的套利交易盘成为政策执 行的巨大掣肘。如今市场主动调整，正中央行下怀，所以日本银行乐得作壁上观，让市场通过收益率的 变化自己去解决供需错配问题。 日本超长债市上，借贷杠杆不是特别高，衍生产品也不多。所以价格动荡会导致投资的账面亏损，但未 必触发系统性风险。尤其日本央行在十年期国债市场还有相当的影响力，笔者认为这次市场突变不会对 日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变数。 日本是世界上最大的储蓄国，但由于长期的超低利率环境，日资多投向海外资产，对日本经济和日元资 产帮助有限。从政策制定者的角度，当然希望引导日资回流，改善本国的资金流动性。现在日本本币的 长期收益率明显上涨，而美债收益率扣除汇率对冲成本后已经不再有吸引力。日本在海外拥有超过1000 万亿日元的净资产，这笔资金部分回流对全球金融市场都可能是一个冲击。 这次市场突变不会对日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变 数。 资金将焦点从货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of gold and silver were boosted by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which weakened the US dollar index and increased global market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the tax reform bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress raised concerns about the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Trump's tariff threat on Friday further boosted precious metal prices [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is ongoing. Trump initially claimed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, but later postponed the deadline to July 9. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement expected to reach a temporary agreement by early July [3][6]. - Although the US - China trade relationship has recently eased, there is still great uncertainty in the trade negotiations between the US and other economies such as the EU and Japan. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks occur frequently. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, so the short - term gold price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 780.10 | 28.30 | 3.76 | 220512 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 775.72 | 21.63 | 2.87 | 48148 | 210456 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3357.70 | 152.40 | 4.75 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8263 | 162 | 2.00 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 8244 | 131 | 1.61 | 372524 | 3454112 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.64 | 1.21 | 3.73 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the tax reform bill, and Trump's tariff threat [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is in progress. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for the EU to July 9. Japan may accept a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by early July [3][6]. - The tax reform bill led by Trump will increase the federal debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next decade, causing concerns about fiscal sustainability and global bond market fluctuations. The bill will face challenges in the Senate vote [6]. - Fed officials emphasized patience in policy adjustment. The market expects a 90% probability of an ECB interest rate cut next month [6][7]. - Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the "Gideon's Sword" operation by the Israeli Defense Forces [7]. - This week, focus on US economic data such as GDP and PCE, and events like the US trade negotiations, the Fed's May meeting minutes, and speeches by Fed officials [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - In May, the US manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI was 52.3, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in a year. However, manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined [9]. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating a stable employment market [9]. - In May, the eurozone manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2, but the service PMI dropped to 48.9, a 16 - month low, dragging down the composite PMI to 49.5. The money market increased bets on further ECB interest rate cuts this year [9]. - In April, US new home sales reached the highest level since February 2022, with an annualized growth of nearly 11% to 743,000 units [9]. - In April, Japan's core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the price of rice increased by 98%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October [10]. - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 metric tons, a 73% increase, a new high in 11 months [10]. - As of May 20, the total gold holdings of precious metal ETFs were 922.46 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons from last week. The silver holdings of ishare were 14217.50 tons, an increase of 302.60 tons from last week [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including SHFE and COMEX precious metal prices, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [14][15][16]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation[2] - Since April 30, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 37 basis points (bps), with the term premium contributing 28 bps to this rise[2] - The term premium reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors[2] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Beautiful Act" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the deficit rate to approximately 8% by 2026, although its marginal economic contribution is limited[3] - The Act extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of its provisions aimed at prolonging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) measures, effective from January 1, 2026[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate due to the Act is estimated at 1.8 percentage points, with a total deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over the next decade[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has witnessed a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Nasdaq down 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 8 bps to 4.51%[5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.12, while gold prices surged by 5.0% to $3,351.0 per ounce amid market volatility[5] - The correlation between the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit leading to an approximate 78 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield[3]

Group 1: Global Long-Term Interest Rates - Goldman Sachs predicts that global long-term interest rates will continue to rise, with the speed of this increase being crucial as it may trigger systemic risks in financial markets [1][2] - The current slow pace of interest rate increases has limited impacts on the stock market, but a rapid rise could lead to significant declines and tighten financial conditions [2][6] Group 2: United States - Concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit are resurfacing, particularly with the new fiscal legislation that does not intend to reduce borrowing [3][4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could exceed 6%, driven by a combination of potential growth rates and persistent deficits [6][17] - The U.S. government is unlikely to reduce spending significantly, and any intervention by the Federal Reserve or Treasury may only provide temporary relief [5][6] Group 3: Europe - Weak economic data and escalating trade conflicts have led to expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June, with inflation forecasts falling below targets [7][8] - The ECB is expected to lower growth and inflation projections, and a 25 basis point cut would bring the policy rate down to 2% [8][19] - Market reactions to potential rate cuts have been muted, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [10][19] Group 4: United Kingdom - The UK's service sector inflation has exceeded expectations, providing justification for a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England [11][12] - Upcoming wage data will be critical in determining the future direction of monetary policy, with high wage growth potentially undermining rate cut expectations [12][19] - Despite high inflation, market responses have been relatively calm, suggesting that the potential for further rate cuts is already priced in [12][19] Group 5: Japan - Japan's long-term bond market is facing structural challenges as life insurance companies shift from being net buyers to net sellers of long-term bonds [13][15] - The Japanese government is increasing bond issuance while the Bank of Japan has not indicated any tightening measures, leading to concerns about rising long-term interest rates [15][20] - Upcoming bond auctions will be critical to monitor as they may reflect ongoing demand issues in the long-term bond market [16][20]

OEXN Supports Sportsmanship and Charity 7th Larnaka International Marathon 由于全球市场对美国不断扩大的财政赤字感到焦虑，债券投资者要求持有长期美国债务的补偿越来越高。OEXN平台表示，美国10年期期限溢价——即投资 者要求持有较长期债务而非一系列较短期债务的额外回报——已攀升至接近1%的水平，这是自2014年以来的最高水平。这一指标反映了投资者对美国未来 借贷规模扩大的担忧程度。 OEXN平台进一步认为，美国的融资挑战在穆迪评级公司一周前剥夺美国最高信用评级后变得尤为突出。这一降级随后又遭遇了美国众议院通过的一项数万 亿美元法案，该法案延长了特朗普总统的减税政策，以及20年期国债拍卖需求疲软。 OEXN平台还提到，美国长期借贷成本本周大幅上升，30年期收益率攀升至5.15%，接近近20年来的最高水平。经通胀调整后的同期限实际利率在周三收于 2008年以来的最高水平。周五，随着抛售吸引买家，这一趋势有所缓解。美国银行的Michael Hartnett表示，投资者应抓住机会增加长期国债的持有量，因为 美国政府可能会听从债券市场的警告，控制 ...

美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲的"财政扩 张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低。 ICE美元指数周四反弹失败，周五重挫下跌，一度跌破99整数关口。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售 ，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下， 更高的收 益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds faced weak demand, leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields to an 18-month high, hovering above 5% [1] - RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas noted a shift in investor perception regarding the safe-haven value of long-term U.S. Treasuries, driven by increasing risks related to government spending, taxation, trade, inflation, and growth [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has raised concerns, with projections indicating that U.S. debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current deficit levels compared to other developed nations [1] Group 2 - The Responsible Federal Budget Committee estimates that the recent tax cut plan could increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, equivalent to 10% of this year's GDP [2] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the implications of high deficits during a period of low unemployment, likening current borrowing levels to wartime financing [2] - There are warnings that unless the stock market experiences another significant downturn, the administration may not reconsider its tax cut strategy, potentially leading to a severe sell-off in long-term bonds that could impact risk assets [2]

美债市场的风险正在加剧，30年期美债收益率为5.1610%，接近2023年10月的最高点，而目前的利率却 比那时低了100个基点。除此之外，亚洲和欧洲的债券也同样遭到抛售，投资者对高债务的担忧加剧。 在美国财政前景不断恶化和政策不确定性的情况下，美国债券市场的波动加剧。 黄金方面： 据数据显示，美国联邦的债务已经超过36万亿美元，近期通过的税收和支出法案可能新增3.8万亿美元 的债务。另外，穆迪上周下调了美国主权信用评级，结束了美国长达108年的最高信用评级。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，近期美债的关注度非常高，一方面特朗普政府通过的法 案将增加财政赤字，另一方面美债到期的担忧持续发酵。 技术面：原油4月初跌破了过去两年多的震荡区域，虽然未出现连续下跌，但走弱的迹象非常明显。上 周三（5月14日）以来，油价维持高位震荡，64美元未能突破，或将继续保持55-64美元区间宽幅震荡。 小时图来看，油价从周三（5月21日）的高点持续震荡下行，日内上方关注61.50美元的阻力，下方若跌 破60.30美元则看向58.50美元一线。 日经225方面： 日经225在38750一线遇阻回落，小时图震荡下行，昨日触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government maintains a "strong dollar" policy, dismissing speculations about a shift towards a "weak dollar" or secret currency agreements [1][9][10]. Group 1: Strong Dollar Policy - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, confirmed the commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, refuting any claims of secret currency agreements during trade negotiations [1][3][4]. - Following Miran's statements, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 100.1216 before slightly retreating [2]. - Miran emphasized that the strong dollar is not just about exchange rates but also concerns the stability of the dollar system and its structural advantages as the global reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Strategy - Miran addressed concerns regarding tariffs, economic deficits, and potential recession, stating that the recent market volatility is expected during policy adjustments [11][13]. - He noted that while companies might delay investments or hiring, this does not indicate an impending recession, but rather a temporary shift in timing [14]. - The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with over 20 countries, expecting to finalize multiple agreements in the coming months, which could significantly boost U.S. exports and help reduce the trade deficit [15]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy - Miran criticized the Biden administration for leaving behind a challenging fiscal situation while defending the current fiscal strategy [16][17]. - He argued that fiscal deficits should occur during genuine crises, not during stable economic periods, and that assessments of deficits should consider various factors beyond static evaluations [18]. - Despite market challenges, Miran expressed confidence in the administration's core economic strategy, which focuses on tax reform, deregulation, and energy independence [19][20].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货5月23日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计960641千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加11444千克。 沪银主力短线还是继续看回落，今日白银期货开盘报8236元/千克，最高触及8286元/千克，最低触及 8200元/千克，截止收盘报8263元/千克，日内跌幅0.37%。 周四的数据显示，经季节性调整的英国制造业采购经理人指数意外从 4 月份的 45.4 降至 5 月份的 45.1，因为市场预测报告期内的读数为 46.0。与此同时，英国 5 月服务业商业活动指数初值升至 50.2， 而前值为 49.0，预期为 50.0。 在美国国债收益率下跌的推动下，英镑/美元上涨，美元下跌。由于对美国财政赤字增加的担忧日益加 剧，30 年期美国债券收益率从 5.15% 回落，为 19 个月来的最高水平，而特朗普的"一大美丽法案"正在 进入参议院。 美国众议院周四以一票之差批准了特朗普的预算，该预算将对小费收入和美国制造的汽车贷款提供税收 减免。据国会预算办公室 （CBO） 称，该提案预计将使赤字增加 38 亿美元。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 111864 0 外运华东虹桥 121651 0 ...