Market Overview and Market Review Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures continued its rebound and upward trend. The opening price was 4,204 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,238 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,184 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous day. The trading volume was 146,103 lots, the open interest was 181,087 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was 8,089 lots [2]. Futures Market Data - The report provides detailed futures market data for different contracts of soybean No. 1, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, previous settlement price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, change in open interest, and trading value. The total trading volume of soybean No. 1 futures was 189,592 lots, the total open interest was 309,914 lots, and the total trading value was 795,149.28 million yuan [2]. Spot Market Data - According to Wind data, the average price of domestic soybeans on the day was 4,017 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has been stable with a slight decline. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.7453 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.29%. As imported soybeans arrive at ports successively, the soybean inventory at ports continues to accumulate [4]. Influencing Factor Analysis Important News and Event Reviews - The import price of near - month soybeans showed a weakening trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,907.94 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,927.66 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,799.66 yuan/ton [9]. Associated Data Tracking - The basis of soybean No. 1 on the day was - 212 yuan/ton. The total open interest of soybean No. 1 options was 60,222 contracts, including 40,687 call option contracts and 19,535 put option contracts. The put - to - call ratio of open interest was 0.4801 [12]. Core View - The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable with a slight decline, the port inventory is increasing, and the import price of near - month soybeans is weakening. The soybean No. 1 futures market is showing a rebound and upward trend, and the market sentiment is relatively warm, continuing to be dominated by a volatile and strong trend [4][9][13]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 市场整体情绪偏乐观 铜价震荡上行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-22，沪铜主力合约开于 79720元/吨，收于 79740元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,830元/吨，收于 79,970 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性紧张，主流品牌对2508合约升水报160-320元/吨，均价240元/ 吨，较昨日上涨20元/吨。现货价格区间79630-79880元/吨，沪铜早盘自79760元/吨回落至79560元/吨，隔月价差维 持Contango结构。市场呈现明显分化：主流交单品牌升水高企，但常州等地实际成交品牌升水仅60-80元/吨。尽管 冶炼厂已向上海地区发货，但优质平水铜和好铜供应仍然偏紧，品牌价差将持续，建议下游企业按需采购。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，近日，美国财长贝森特称，8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易 谈判与俄乌制裁谈判分开进行，而与日本的谈判进展非常顺利。不过近期市场表现似乎并为受到太大影响，甚至 ...

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 23 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：震荡上行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议，将征菲律宾 19% 关税，道指加速上涨。特朗普称在白宫会见到访的菲 律宾总统马科斯，双方达成贸易协议，菲律宾将对美国开放市场、实行零关税。19% 的关税低于他两周前发 函威胁的水平 20%。继印尼之后，菲律宾成为第二个通过贸易协议降低他本月发函威胁 8 月将新征关税水 平的国家。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20900 | ୧୦ | 470 | 460 | 375 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20925 | l | l | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall trend of domestic meal products is stronger than the external market, and rapeseed meal maintains a relatively strong operation. The short - term supply of rapeseed oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is high, but the output pressure is weakening, and the long - term pressure may decline. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased recently [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9477 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 16433 hands to 225053 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 6123 hands to 8538 hands. The main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 551501 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 5316 hands to 40412 hands. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 691 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5133 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 4948.85 yuan/ton, down 48.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.6, up 0.01 [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons, a decrease of 15.1 tons. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.25 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.2 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 35.13 tons, a decrease of 2.91 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 5.6 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 27 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 tons, a decrease of 0.38 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, a decrease of 87 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4578.2 billion yuan, an increase of 411.2 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.6%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.18%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.14%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 21st, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to good weather in the Canadian prairies, but commercial pricing supported the market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 6.20 Canadian dollars at 694.10 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased this week, and there has been favorable rainfall, which has brought some pressure to the market. The arrival of the peak season for aquaculture has increased the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal has weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure from the supply of soybean meal, but the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 2.41% to 2.03 million tons at the end of June, and high - frequency data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from July 1st - 15th, while exports declined, which restricts the palm oil price. The supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, which continues to restrict the market price. However, the reduction in the oil mill startup rate has significantly weakened the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade may increase supply, and recently, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2] Key Points to Watch - The startup rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 22 日 铝：震荡上行 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 美欧贸易协议前景黯淡，欧盟考虑"核选项"反制。报道称，美国提出了更严苛的贸易条件，包括 提高关税至 15% 或更高、维持现行的 25% 汽车关税，甚至可能对药品征收 100% 关税。面对美方强硬要求， 德国态度转变，欧盟内部日趋强硬，并考虑动用"反胁迫工具"等报复措施。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20840 | 330 | 425 | 445 | 360 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20860 | l | l | । | l | | | | LME铝3 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 PP：现货小涨，成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7091 | 0.98% | 361,218 | -20749 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | | 09合约基差 | -61 | | -33 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | - 1 | | 3 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6960 - | 7110 | 6950 - | 7080 | | | 华东 | 7030 - | 7150 | 6980 - | 7120 | | | 华南 | 7010 - | 7200 | 6970 - | 7200 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the current good weather in US soybean - producing areas leads to a high good - rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which restricts the market price. The import of soybeans in China has increased, and the short - term supply is loose, putting pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support. The aquaculture peak season boosts rapeseed meal demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is also concerned about Sino - US trade negotiation news. The price of rapeseed meal continues to rise due to trade policy uncertainties [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the good growth conditions of Canadian rapeseed and the possible resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade put pressure on the market. The MPOb report shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which restricts palm oil prices, but news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sector is positive for the oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and high inventory of rapeseed oil mills restrict the price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure. Recently, rapeseed oil has performed weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9563 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5153 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 312 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 241,486 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 14,661 lots, down 3403 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 548,829 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 35,096 lots, down 5186 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, down 434 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4997.41 yuan/ton, up 10.26 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 97 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 270 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 tons, up 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.25 tons, down 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.2 tons, down 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 58.45 tons, down 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.04 tons, up 2.46 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5.6 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 28.2 tons, down 1.1 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 tons, up 1.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.46 tons, up 0.14 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.89%, up 2.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.85%, up 2.06 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.18%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.14%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.75%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed: On July 18th, the ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly but were far below the daily high due to the decline in US soybean oil futures and favorable Canadian crop weather [2]. - US soybean: As of July 13th, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation [2].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 21 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：资金增仓 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20510 | ઠેર | -185 | 260 | -70 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20770 | l | l | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2638 | 49 | 36 | 122 | 88 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 129036 | 26862 | 8811 | -69607 | -86362 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 282655 | 14113 | 27509 | 88027 | 7590 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 20 日 玉米：延续反弹 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com （1） 玉米市场回顾 现货市场，7 月 18 日当周，玉米现货下跌。据汇易网统计，截至 7 月 18 日，全国玉米均价 2405 元/ 吨，较前一周 2427.96 元/吨下跌 13 元/吨。山东深加工 2440-2510 元/吨，普通畜禽料玉米 2430-2450 元/吨，猪料玉米 2470-2510 元/吨，河南 2350-2490 元/吨，河北 2400-2500 元/吨。黑龙江深加工干 粮收购 2200-2250 元/吨，吉林深加工玉米主流收购 2200-2260 元/吨，内蒙古深加工玉米主流收购 2280-2360 元/吨。北方玉米集港价格 2280-2300 元/吨（挂牌），水分 14.5%-15%，广东蛇口散船 2410-2430 元/吨。 期货市场，7 月 18 日当周盘面反弹。现货情绪好转，价格反弹，盘面受到现货以及整体大宗商品高 涨氛围反弹。主力合约（C2509）最高价 2316 元/吨，最低 2274 元/吨，收盘价 2314 元/吨（ ...

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,794.00 | +44.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,482.00 | +74.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 565,357.00 | +1636.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 395,187.00 | -5381.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -52,050.00 | +676.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -47,514.00 | +6485.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -6.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 64.00 | -14.00↓ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 83,372.00 | -463.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | | 21,950.00 ...