Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has raised questions about whether this is a temporary spike in risk sentiment or a signal of a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On June 13, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $3,467 per ounce, marking a three-day increase of over 3%, the most significant since 2019 [1][4]. - The international gold price has consistently hit new five-week highs, breaking the downward trend line since May 6 [1][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, has significantly impacted gold prices, with historical data indicating that a 10-point increase in the geopolitical risk index correlates with an average gold price increase of 2.3% [4][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The disconnect between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields is evident, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.36%, prompting increased investment in gold [7]. - Recent U.S. inflation data has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut rising to 80% following a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the CPI and a core CPI drop to 2.8% year-over-year [8][9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the European Central Bank reporting that gold will account for 20% of reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset [10]. - China's central bank has been consistently increasing its gold holdings, reaching 2,296 tons by the end of May [10]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and TD Securities predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 and $3,650 respectively, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions [14][15]. - Conversely, JPMorgan warns that if the Middle East situation stabilizes, gold prices could retreat to $3,200 [16]. - Citibank maintains a year-end target of $3,000, suggesting that the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts may be slower than market expectations [17].

稀土永磁："基本面+情绪面"共振，权益端表现明显。具体来看：本周轻稀土氧化镨钕下降 1.4%至44.25 万元/吨；中重稀土氧化镝下降 0.3%至 162.5万元/吨，氧化铽下降 1.1%至 712.5万元/吨。磁材厂许可证陆续 办理，往后基本面或迎大幅改善。看长一点，板块大逻辑将更为清晰，要足够重视上游供给重塑的产业趋 势性机会，重点关注中国稀土、广晟有色、北方稀土。同时，磁材之前受出口管制影响其出口，当前迎情 绪面和基本面修复。建议重点关注磁材核心公司正海磁材、金力永磁、宁波韵升等。 风险提示：需求回暖不及预期的风险，上游供给大增的风险，库存大幅增加的风险。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 地缘冲突加剧，黄金避险属性凸显推升金价上行 基本金属：铜铝价格走势分化，铝价小幅上行。1）铜：本周铜价延续窄幅震荡，沪铜收于 78350元/吨。 宏观对铜价影响较大，价格波动率预计仍将延续本周相对动荡的状态。基本面上，目前国内供给处于高产 阶段，检修影响减少，下游消费表现出较强的韧性；与此同时，国内出口窗口打开，部分冶炼厂开始增加 和安排出口计划，后续库存的回升压力较大。市场目前基本面对于铜价的支 ...

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡宣布，其政府已对伊朗的核计划及弹道导弹设施展开"有针对性的军事行动"。作 为回应，伊朗则表示已向以色列发射超过100架无人机进行报复。内塔尼亚胡强调："只要消除威胁需要 多久，这项军事行动就会持续多久。" 美国国务卿鲁比奥随后表示，美国并未参与对伊朗的打击，该行动是以色列的"单边行动"。他重 申："我们目前的首要任务是保护美国在该地区的部队安全。" 随后伊朗方面也证实已对以色列发射弹道导弹，伊朗国家通讯社称此次行动为"强烈报复行动的开始"， 以色列国防军亦证实遭受袭击。 此次地缘危机使得美元避险属性再度凸显。美元兑传统避险货币瑞士法郎及日元也分别上涨0.1%及 0.4%。通常在全球局势不确定性加剧时，投资者倾向于抛售风险资产，转而购买被视为"安全港"的资产 以规避市场波动风险。 荷兰国际集团的货币策略师指出，以色列的袭击行动成为"超卖且估值偏低的美元反弹的催化剂"。 不过他们也指出，若在正常情况下，美元本应因"股债市场负面冲击"出现更大幅度的反弹。"但当前美 元的传统相关性已消失，而标普500指数超1%的跌幅可能正在限制美元涨幅。" 智通财经APP获悉，周五，在避险买盘推动下，美元出现强劲 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - On June 13, international crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude futures rising over 14% to a peak of $77.62 per barrel, the highest since January 21 of this year [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures also saw a spike, reaching a limit-up price of 535.2 yuan per barrel, marking a new high since April 7, before closing at 529.9 yuan per barrel, up 7.9% [2] - Analysts attribute the surge in oil prices to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a weaker dollar due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, and strong fundamentals in the oil market [2][4] Group 2: Gold Market Developments - International gold prices also rose sharply, with London spot gold exceeding $3440 per ounce, reaching a high of $3444.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3467 per ounce, both marking new highs since April 22 [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. economic data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][5] - Domestic gold futures also experienced significant gains, with the main contract closing at 794.36 yuan per gram, up 1.72%, and peaking at 801.14 yuan per gram, the first time surpassing 800 yuan per gram since May 9 [3] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility in oil prices is expected due to market speculation, gold may exhibit stronger long-term performance due to its monetary and safe-haven attributes [4][5] - The potential for gold prices to reach between $3000 and $3200 per ounce for long positions, with a possibility of surpassing $3500 per ounce if geopolitical conflicts persist, is highlighted [5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the shift in monetary policy are likely to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to $3800 per ounce in the future [5]

期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 股指对冲周报 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | （正文） 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1：股指期货基差 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 货 研 究 期货研究 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2506 | -18.58 | -7.78 | 10.80 | 10.0% | | IF2507 | -55.98 | -51.18 | 4.80 | 14.3% | | IF2509 | -90.58 | -80.18 | 10.40 | 8.9% | | IF2512 | -127.98 | -111.78 | 16.20 | 6.9% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指 ...

免责声明 基层后回周度预测 2025/6/13 本周预测结论 IC IH IF I M 下周预测万问 代表预测基差下周走强, 注: 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设 置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。 本内容不构成具体业务的推介,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客 户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风 险承受能力作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险,不应凭借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何 责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经本公司事先书面许可，任何单位或个人不得以任 何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 中办和国办联合印发了《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》,可能推 动港股科 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 当地时间6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗境内目标的消息传出后，全球金融市场瞬间剧烈波动。在避险需求推动下，资 金疯狂涌入黄金市场，现货黄金价格如离弦之箭般飙升，强势突破3410美元/盎司，最高触及3443美元/盎司高 位。COMEX黄金期货价格也出现大幅上涨，最高冲至3463美元/盎司。 与此同时，原油市场亦大幅波动。作为全球原油供应核心区域，中东地区的以色列与伊朗冲突，令市场对石油供 应中断的担忧急剧升温。美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)一度大涨13.46%。截至发稿，布伦特原油期货价格回落 至71美元/桶，美国WTI原油期货价格回落至69.97美元/桶。业内人士指出，此次冲突爆发无疑加剧了原油供应的 不确定性，油价也因此被大幅推高。 以色列对伊朗发动袭击 据央视报道，当地时间6月13日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称，以色列对伊朗的首次突袭"非常成功"，以色列袭击了 伊朗高级指挥部，袭击了推动核武器发展的高级科学家，袭击了核设施。内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列"正在取得成 就"。 "长久以来，以色列一直将伊朗的核发展计划视为对其国家安全的严重威胁，此次 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 贵金属市场周报 美元走弱提振金价，避险需求再度抬升 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场延续震荡偏强走势。周初因美国通胀预期回落至三个月低点，叠 加中美贸易谈判预期边际改善，金价承压回调。随后，美国5月CPI及PPI数据连续放缓，核心 服务通胀降温迹象显现，市场对美联储9月降息的预期升温，推动金价触底反弹。地缘风险持 续提振市场避险情绪，以色列对伊朗的突发袭击事件刺激避险需求，进一步支撑金价上行。 欧洲央行报告显示黄金超越欧元成为全球央行第二大储备资产，预示黄金的避险以及美元信 用对冲属性仍受到全球央行青睐。尽管中美贸易谈判中双方对日内瓦协议取得一致认同，但 缺乏具体实施的细节，后续不确定性仍存。整体来看，黄金在降息预期抬升、地缘风险及央 行购金的提振下维持震荡偏强运行，而银价则相对承压于短期超买后回调压力的释放。 ...

Group 1 - The current surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel's preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, leading to a significant influx of safe-haven investments into the gold market [1] - Gold prices reached a new high of $3428.47 per ounce, marking a 1.25% increase, while domestic gold prices rose to 794 yuan per gram [1] - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a downturn, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.2 and ADP employment data showing only a 37,000 increase, the lowest in two years, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 2 - The global demand for gold is increasing, with central banks purchasing gold at levels approaching post-World War II peaks, and gold reserves now account for 20% of global asset reserves, surpassing the euro [1] - In the current volatile gold market, companies are advised to respect market conditions and implement strict risk management strategies [2] - A new AI analysis tool has been launched by a company to provide daily strategy analysis based on the latest market conditions, enhancing the ability to identify profitable opportunities [2] Group 3 - The company is offering promotional incentives, including a $30,000 bonus for new customers, to enhance trading profitability [4] - Additional trading benefits include a maximum rebate of $30 per lot and reduced trading spreads as low as $20 per lot, aimed at lowering trading costs for clients [6] - The company positions itself as a partner in navigating the gold market, emphasizing collaboration with clients to achieve success [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for different asset classes: - **Stocks**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - **Bonds**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - **Commodities**: Buy on dips [6] - **Foreign Exchange**: Caution and wait - and - see [6] 2. Core Views - A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations this week and all recorded declines, mainly affected by domestic price data, trade situation, and overseas geopolitical and tariff news. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. The commodity market strengthened due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US dollar was volatile and weak, while the euro was strong [6]. - Inflation data in the US unexpectedly slowed down, the labor market continued to cool, which strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar was under pressure, and the euro maintained a strong trend. The Japanese yen was supported by the Bank of Japan's hawkish tone [10]. - In May, China's CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the CPI - PPI gap widened. Although exports were affected by tariffs, exports to ASEAN and the EU offset the decline in exports to the US. The tourism and culture industries were boosted by the summer vacation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.25%, and the CSI 300 Index Futures rose 0.07%. A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations and declined, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - **Bonds**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 0.09%, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.11%. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.17%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.58%. The CPI - PPI gap widened, and the trade scale shrank. The commodity market was expected to strengthen, but the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 1.30%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 1.11%. The US dollar was volatile and weak, and the euro was strong. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, reaching a consensus on implementing the leaders' consensus and consolidating the results of previous talks [14]. - **Global Economic News**: The Fed's Beige Book showed a pessimistic economic outlook in the US; the ECB cut interest rates; the World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan was entering a stage of rising interest rates [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - **China**: In May, the CPI annual rate was - 0.1%, the PPI annual rate was - 3.3%, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: In May, the New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.2%, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8% [17]. - **UK**: In May, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and in April, the three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Japan**: In April, the trade balance was - 32.8 billion yen [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **China**: On June 16, the year - on - year growth rate of May's social consumer goods retail sales and the year - on - year growth rate of May's industrial added value above a designated size will be released; on June 20, the one - year loan prime rate will be announced [81]. - **US**: On June 17, the May retail sales monthly rate and the May industrial output monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Fed's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - **UK**: On June 18, the May CPI monthly rate and the May retail price index monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Bank of England's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - **Japan**: On June 17, the central bank's target interest rate will be announced; on June 20, the May core CPI annual rate will be released [81]. - **Eurozone**: On June 18, the May CPI annual rate final value will be released; on June 20, the June consumer confidence index preliminary value will be released [81].