Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral line of 50 for nine consecutive months [1] - New orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction since July, while backlog orders have seen the largest decline in seven months, indicating a further downturn in overall manufacturing sentiment [1] Group 2 - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, reflecting market expectations for more easing measures [1] - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing in November, along with significant declines in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment, supports the bullish outlook for gold and silver prices [1] - The PMI has decreased by 0.5 percentage points, reinforcing the trend of weakening economic data and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction rate since July, while backlogged orders have seen the largest decline in seven months [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising above $4,290 before retreating to around $4,259, ultimately closing at $4,265 per ounce, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1]. - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.03%, and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.33% [1]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 87.6%, as indicated by CME's "Fed Watch" tool [1]. - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing, along with dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, is likely to support gold and silver prices in the near future [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inventory shortages and potential squeeze risks supported a new high in silver, leading to a collective increase in the non - ferrous metals sector. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%. The top 20 positions increased both long and short positions, with net long positions increasing by 3,467 lots. [7] - As the price rose, downstream buyers showed fear of high prices, and market trading weakened. The premium in the Shanghai market for the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widening. [7] - There were limited changes in the industrial chain. The domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) remained flat this week, while the imported concentrate TC continued to decline. The shortage at the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end, and the refined zinc output in November was expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. The tightening supply strengthened the support for zinc prices. [7] - The export window was still open, and with downstream pick - ups, the domestic social inventory had been decreasing for three consecutive weeks. The expectation of an interest rate cut in December increased, and the bullish sentiment in precious metals remained. Shanghai zinc was boosted and showed a strong performance. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2512, 2601, 2602) are presented. For example, the 2601 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%, with an open interest of 105,756 lots and an increase of 4,214 lots. [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Price Ranges in Different Regions**: On December 1, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions were as follows: 22,600 - 22,750 yuan/ton in the general market, 22,600 - 22,720 yuan/ton in the Ningbo market, 22,420 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Tianjin market, and 22,440 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Guangdong market. Different brands also had corresponding price ranges and premium/discount situations. [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in ten thousand tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons). [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the increasing probability of a rate cut has kept the sentiment warm. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts [5]. - The aluminum price is expected to rise further as domestic and LME aluminum inventories are in a downward trend, with low inventory levels, and supported by supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price [7]. - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment to the non - ferrous metals industry, despite some industry contradictions [9]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the current weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, reducing its attractiveness to speculative funds [11]. - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor for short - term prices, although demand is currently weak [13]. - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms, despite large surplus pressure [15]. - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or use options, while paying attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics [18]. - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong [21]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally [24]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price hit a new high and then declined. LME 3M copper rose 0.51% to $11,232/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 89,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong declined, and the import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread increased [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are still a headwind, but the market focuses on the Fed's meeting. With a tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts, the copper price is expected to be strong. The operating range of SHFE copper is 88,200 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is $11,000 - 11,350/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,888/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,885 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market trading sentiment was weak [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - With declining inventories, supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 21,720 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is $2,840 - 2,910/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.10% to 17,069 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1,982.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment, although the industry has some contradictions such as rising lead - ore inventory and changing smelting operating rates [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.75% to 22,603 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $3,065.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the open interest has reached a new low in 2025 [11]. Tin Market Information - The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.09% to 306,580 yuan/ton. In October, domestic tin - concentrate imports increased, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) disrupted tin - ore transportation. The demand in traditional sectors is weak, and the social inventory decreased [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $38,000 - 41,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.66% to 117,850 yuan/ton. The spot premium of different brands changed, and the nickel - ore price was stable, while the nickel - iron price decline slowed down [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index rose 1.07%, and the LC2605 contract rose 0.54%. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.84% to 2,716 yuan/ton. The open interest increased, the basis and overseas prices were reported, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong. The reference operating range of the AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.65% to 12,445 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different products changed, the raw - material prices were reported, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally due to downstream restocking and traders' hoarding [24]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose 1.23% to 21,055 yuan/ton. The open interest and volume increased, the warehouse receipts increased, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, while the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，统计局公布的 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，相对上月 的 49.0%有所改善，不过仍然位于荣枯线下方。 ...

美国东部时间11月30日晚，一篇关于"鲍威尔即将召开紧急会议并宣布辞职"的"小作文"在国外社交媒体迅速发酵。 国际关系学院美国问题专家孙冰岩向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）指出，鲍威尔主动辞职概率为0。市场希望通过"换帅"消息来推动降 息。若鲍威尔下台，接下来上任的大概率是鸽派人物。 在小道消息甚嚣尘上的同一天，美国总统特朗普宣布，他已经确定了下任美联储主席的人选，将在近期公布。从预测平台Polymarket的数据来看，白宫国 家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特获提名的概率高达74%。 孙冰岩对此分析道，哈塞特与鲍威尔的根基差异不大，更多是细节判断的不同。若哈塞特上任，仍会维护美联储表面上的独立性，美联储大概率不会出现 极端化的政策转向。 图片来源：新华社记者 胡友松摄 鲍威尔再度"被下课"，专家称辞职概率为0 白宫官员成美联储主席头号候选人 对于为何市场会出现这种传言，孙冰岩表示，近期的市场繁荣某种程度上是 "臆造出的降息预期"驱动资金入场。鲍威尔辞职的传闻本质是市场预期与现 实的落差体现：一方面，市场已深度押注降息，另一方面，美联储内部分歧未决、降息尚无定论，市场希望通过"换帅"消息来推动降息。毕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak [2][9][12]. - Gold re - entered the uptrend, and silver's short squeeze boosted upside, unlikely to ease soon. Poly - Silicon prices trended higher, but its fundamentals remained weak [16][17][24]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak. China's financial futures: IH rose by 0.76%, IM rose by 1.08%, TL fell by 0.08%. In commodity futures, silver, platinum, and polysilicon topped the gainers, while egg futures, glass futures, and alumina led the decliners [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On December 1st, Gold rose 1.3% to 963.28 yuan/g, Silver rose 5.9% to 13278 yuan/kg. Gold re - entered the uptrend as the market became desensitized to Fed's possible actions in December, and the reshuffle of the Fed chair may open long - term rate cut expectations. Silver's short squeeze boosted upside, and it's unlikely to ease soon due to tight overseas spot supply and year - end delivery peak [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On December 1st, Poly - Silicon rose 3.3% to 57705 yuan/ton. Recent policy expectations picked up, but its fundamentals remained weak. Southwest China entered the dry season, reducing supply. Demand was also weak, and inventory remained high. Overall, 11 - 12 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with supply dropping more sharply, expecting a slight surplus or tight balance by year - end [23][24][25]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to China from December 3rd to 5th. Chinese citizens can enter Russia visa - free for tourism and business purposes until September 14, 2026, with a maximum stay of 30 days [27]. 2.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China convened the Meeting of the Coordination Mechanism for Cracking Down on Virtual Currency Trading and Speculation on November 28, 2025. Starting January 1, 2026, Shanghai Futures Exchange decided that futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants and overseas intermediaries shall not be subject to position limits. As of the end of October, the total assets under management of public funds had approached 37 trillion yuan, an increase of over 4 trillion yuan year - to - date [28].

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑｜程鹏 兰素英 鲍威尔将辞职的传闻，最早由一个币圈相关账号在X平台发布。但截至目前，包括美联储和白宫在内的官方渠道均未有任何证据支持这一说法。 美联储官网日程显示，鲍威尔将在美国东部时间12月1日晚8点（北京时间12月2日早上9点）参加一场活动，但这只是常规演讲，并非传闻中的紧急会议。 今年7月，也有一封由AI伪造的鲍威尔"辞职信"在社交媒体疯传。包括参议员迈克·李在内的多位MAGA阵营人士信以为真并转发，随后又紧急删除。 美国东部时间11月30日晚，一篇关于"鲍威尔即将召开紧急会议并宣布辞职"的"小作文"在国外社交媒体迅速发酵。 国际关系学院美国问题专家孙冰岩向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）指出，鲍威尔主动辞职概率为0。市场希望通过"换帅"消息来推动降 息。若鲍威尔下台，接下来上任的大概率是鸽派人物。 在小道消息甚嚣尘上的同一天，美国总统特朗普宣布，他已经确定了下任美联储主席的人选，将在近期公布。从预测平台Polymarket的数据来看，白宫国 家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特获提名的概率高达74%。 孙冰岩对此分析道，哈塞特与鲍威尔的根基差异不大，更多是细节判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding Jerome Powell's resignation are unfounded, with experts stating the probability of his voluntary departure is zero, as he is expected to complete his term [2][4][15] Group 1: Rumors and Market Reactions - A rumor about Powell's imminent resignation circulated on social media, but there is no official evidence supporting this claim from the Federal Reserve or the White House [2][4] - The market's speculation about a leadership change is driven by hopes for interest rate cuts, reflecting a disconnect between market expectations and the current reality of the Federal Reserve's internal divisions [7][15] Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is the leading candidate to succeed Powell, with a 74% probability of nomination according to Polymarket [8][11] - Other candidates include Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Reed, but Hassett is favored due to his alignment with Trump's economic policies [8][11] Group 3: Hassett's Economic Stance - Hassett is expected to maintain the Federal Reserve's perceived independence while potentially adopting a more dovish stance on interest rates compared to Powell [11][15] - He has publicly supported rate cuts, arguing that current economic risks lean more towards preventing recession rather than combating inflation [11][12] Group 4: Implications of Hassett's Potential Appointment - If Hassett is appointed, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will not undergo extreme policy shifts but will seek a balance between accommodating Trump's demands for rate cuts and maintaining economic stability [15] - Concerns exist regarding Hassett's independence, as his close ties to Trump may lead to perceptions of reduced autonomy for the Federal Reserve [13][14]