Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical and energy dynamics between Russia and China, particularly focusing on the construction of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which aims to reshape energy exports and economic relations in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][22]. Group 1: Energy Strategy and Market Dynamics - Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has lost approximately 70% of its energy export market, prompting a strategic pivot towards China as a new market for its natural gas [3][14]. - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is expected to transport up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which is about one-third of Russia's previous exports to Europe [9][14]. - The project is not only an economic initiative but also a strategic lifeline for Russia, aiming to demonstrate its ability to adapt and reshape its export landscape despite Western sanctions [5][22]. Group 2: Technical and Logistical Challenges - The pipeline will span over 2,600 kilometers, starting from the Yamal Peninsula and passing through Mongolia before reaching northern China, facing significant technical and geographical challenges [9][10]. - The construction involves complex negotiations regarding route selection, environmental assessments, and investment sharing among the three countries involved [10][12]. Group 3: Pricing Negotiations and Economic Implications - Pricing has emerged as a central issue in negotiations, with Russia seeking a "decent" price that reflects its economic interests and national dignity, while China insists on market-driven pricing [7][18]. - Initial investment for the pipeline is projected to exceed $13 billion, with ongoing maintenance and transportation costs also being significant factors in the negotiations [16][18]. - The outcome of these pricing discussions will have profound implications for Russia's economic recovery in the Far East, China's energy security, and the overall energy landscape in Eurasia [20][23].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌停战谈判有新进展，主要国家降息预期降低，黄金高位调整。黄金中长期地缘 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期交割逼仓以及低库存引发白银大涨，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货 高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，昨日上期所库存增加，短期不宜追高，关注波动风 | | ★★ | 不宜追高 | 险。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储内部分歧严重，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜均高位回落，建议不要盲目追高，多单逐渐逢高止盈，中 | | ★ | | 长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌受 | | ★ | 反弹 | 阻于 22800 压力位，宽幅震荡。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 12 月原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体有 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant shift in the global landscape since Trump's presidency, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where he unexpectedly sided with Russia, causing anger among European nations [1] - Spain's "El País" editorial emphasizes that the U.S. is no longer an ally but a rival or even an enemy to Europe, urging Europe to act decisively to maintain its geopolitical influence [1] - Trump's imposition of tariffs on European goods, including a 10% basic tariff and a 20% reciprocal tariff, has severely impacted European economies, leading to a situation where Europe feels like a subordinate to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Trump's approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict involved pressuring Ukraine for compromises and refusing to support new aid plans, which has left Europe concerned about its ability to handle Russia independently [6] - The article discusses two potential strategies for Europe to achieve independence from U.S. influence: a cautious self-building strategy and a more confrontational approach against U.S. threats [8] - Recent actions by European countries, such as France's reinstatement of conscription and Germany's increased defense budget, indicate a shift towards a more assertive stance against the U.S. [9] Group 3 - The article suggests that if Europe can achieve independence, it could lead to a more autonomous partnership with China, enhancing bilateral trade and cooperation in sectors like electric vehicles and green energy [9][10] - The geopolitical separation between Europe and the U.S. could contribute to a multipolar order, reducing U.S. influence and potentially allowing for stronger China-Europe relations [9][10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as a catalyst for Europe to reflect on its dependence on the U.S. and consider China as a more suitable partner for future cooperation [10]

由于市场参与者在几项关键的美国宏观经济数据发布之前削减了敞口，在周一稳步上涨之后，白银价格 有所回落。 周三(12月3日)亚洲时段，现货白银震荡走高后突然回调，白银价格日内跌幅超1.00%，报57.76美元/盎 司；由于交易员在即将到来的美国关键数据发布前获利了结，白银多头失去动能，本交易日关注美国 ADP就业变动和ISM服务业PMI数据。 【要闻速递】 地缘政治仍是推动避险需求的背景因素。即使白银的看涨势头暂时停止，但围绕俄罗斯和乌克兰局势的 不确定性将有助于维持一定程度的风险厌恶情绪。 【最新白银行情解析】 周二白银收锤子阳线，逼近前高，徘徊于日线布林上轨附近，4小时回踩56.60一线企稳，短线预计现货 银将继续上探59。白银走势下方关注58.10美元或57.70美元支撑；上方关注59.00美元或59.70美元阻力。 美元的温和复苏和美国国债收益率的走强给贵金属市场带来了压力，这种模式在之前的避险情绪中曾出 现过。 尽管如此，由于白银继续受益于广泛支撑的宏观环境，下行空间仍然受到控制。投资者预计美联储最早 将在下周的会议上放松政策，目前市场预计降息25个基点的可能性很大。这种鸽派倾向支撑了对无息资 产的需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical and economic implications of the U.S. sanctions against Russia, highlighting how these measures have inadvertently strengthened the ties between Russia and China, transforming their relationship into a more strategic partnership [1][5][24]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Their Impact - In July, Trump issued a "poison pill" ultimatum to Russia, threatening 100% tariffs if certain conditions were not met, which also extended to countries purchasing Russian oil, with India as a direct warning [1][3]. - The sanctions target major Russian oil companies, aiming to choke off Russia's economic lifeline, as energy exports constitute a significant portion of its foreign exchange income [3][5]. - The U.S. strategy appears to be a geopolitical gamble to not only weaken Russia but also to disrupt its partnership with China, offering potential reconsideration of sanctions if Russia distances itself from China [5][7]. Group 2: Russia's Response and Strategic Shift - Faced with extreme pressure, Russia quickly pivoted its focus towards China, with Putin asserting that the Russia-China relationship is not a temporary measure, dispelling any notions of compromise with the West [11][12]. - The Russian elite have recognized that aligning with the U.S. would not yield friendship but rather further exploitation, leading to a profound strategic awakening across the country [14][16]. - Legislative measures have been enacted in Russia to penalize companies cooperating with U.S. sanctions, effectively closing off any retreat towards the West [16][19]. Group 3: Strengthening Russia-China Cooperation - The energy sector has seen a significant shift, with Russia's oil exports to China increasing from 18% to 45% in 2024, alongside a doubling of natural gas supplies, marking a departure from reliance on European markets [19][21]. - Financial and technological collaborations are intensifying, with the use of the Chinese yuan in trade becoming predominant, gradually diminishing the dominance of the U.S. dollar [21][22]. - Joint initiatives in global governance, such as peace proposals in multilateral forums, reflect a deepening partnership that transcends mere survival tactics, evolving into a robust alliance [24][26]. Group 4: Future World Order - The article posits that the evolving Russia-China alliance is pivotal in shaping a more multipolar and equitable world order, countering U.S. hegemony and its coercive diplomacy [26][28]. - The narrative emphasizes that true allies are those who stand firm in adversity, suggesting a shift away from zero-sum games towards a framework of mutual respect and cooperation [28].

Group 1 - Russian President Putin's visit to India on December 4-5 is significant as it marks his first visit post the escalation of the Ukraine crisis and coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Russia-India strategic partnership [1] - Energy cooperation is the core focus of this visit, with Russia expected to supply approximately 634.5 million barrels of oil to India in 2024, accounting for 36.4% of India's total oil imports, allowing India to save around $2.2 billion through discounted prices [3] - Despite U.S. tariffs on Indian imports, India remains committed to maintaining energy security and has no plans to halt oil purchases from Russia, with both nations signaling a strengthening of energy cooperation [3] Group 2 - The visit is expected to result in multiple cooperation agreements in areas such as military procurement, nuclear energy utilization, and Arctic route development, indicating an expansion of Russia-India collaboration into various sectors [3] - India's diplomatic diversification is accelerating in response to U.S. tariff pressures, with a focus on deepening cooperation with Russia and exploring new markets in Latin America and West Asia [4] - The deepening of Russia-India cooperation is seen as a strategic alignment to address international changes, which could reshape bilateral relations and have profound implications for the global energy market and geopolitical balance [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities having their own supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. For most commodities, the short - term trend is mainly volatile, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors such as supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and geopolitical situations [2][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. External market oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although the SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is expected to resume operation earlier than planned, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's feed demand was previously boosted by coking profits and quota shortages, but the early issuance of crude oil quotas may divert feed demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is pressured by the weakening of refined oil cracking. The short - term supply pressure of both has been relieved, but the medium - term supply is still in a loose pattern [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in spot prices. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, and the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has slowed down significantly. It is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Silver's upward momentum slowed after hitting a record high, and gold broke through the previous high. Overall, precious metals should be treated as volatile, and chasing high prices should be cautious. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium's supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, approaching the short - term moving average. SHFE copper shows certain resilience in the previous trading intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the spot discount has slightly widened. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and the seasonal inventory performance is neutral. The casting aluminum - alloy and SHFE aluminum price gap may narrow at the end of the year [5] - **Alumina**: Overnight, alumina hit a new low since listing. The domestic operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It will mainly operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [6] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, while overseas zinc ingots are in short supply. LME zinc is operating at a high level, and the export window is open, pulling up the domestic market. The bottom support of zinc is strong, but consumption is restricted. SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transmitting the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic social inventory is at a low level of 35,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure is limited. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and medium - and long - term short positions can be paired with hedging strategies [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the correction of polysilicon prices. The current supply - demand shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The subsequent focus should be on the price trend of DMC [10] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices declined. Thread's apparent demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory decreased slowly. The overall steel mills are in a loss state, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The steel price is expected to continue the rebound trend with fluctuations [12] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The global shipment is strong, the domestic arrival volume is high, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend. The demand for iron ore has the possibility of further weakening. The market expects policy benefits, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [13] - **Coke**: The intraday coke price fluctuated strongly. The market has certain expectations for downstream restocking. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coke price is expected to maintain the rebound rhythm in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The intraday coking coal price fluctuated strongly. The market may expect downstream restocking. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday manganese silicon price fluctuated. The spot price of manganese ore has increased due to the rebound of the futures market. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing, and the inventory is slowly accumulating. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [16] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The intraday silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and semi - coke prices. The overall demand has some resilience. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [17] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to fluctuate upward. The production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory, and short - term exports relieve some supply - side pressure. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range [21] - **Methanol**: The night - session methanol price fell slightly. The port inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and the production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The market is in a state of multi - empty game, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term [22] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The weekly device operating rate decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume is expected to be high, and the downstream demand decreased. The market is expected to continue the low - level fluctuation pattern [23] - **Styrene**: The cost side of styrene is under pressure due to the continuous inventory accumulation expectation of pure benzene. The supply - demand structure is stable, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene's chemical - downstream demand has some support, and the price has a slight upward trend. The overall supply of polyethylene changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may ease. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and weakening trend, with high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [26] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA are driven down by the decline in oil prices. PTA continues to reduce production, and the short - term demand impact is negative. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to continue the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the supply has marginal improvement. The price is mainly volatile, but it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term trend is weak [28] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and the production efficiency is still poor. The long - term pressure is over - capacity, and the price is mainly cost - driven [29] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different, with Brazil normal and Argentina slow. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the upward breakthrough needs further observation [33] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation, with supply reduction having marginal benefits. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. Soybean oil is expected to be supported by the expected strong performance of US soybeans [34] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price continues to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans show a sideways and slightly strong oscillation. High - protein soybeans have a tight supply, and US soybeans are expected to be strong. The short - term focus should be on the domestic spot market and policy guidance [36] - **Corn**: The spot price drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The supply - demand mismatch still exists, and the short - term 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a callback [37] - **Hogs**: Hog futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price continues to decline slightly. The short - term supply and demand are both under pressure, and the medium - term price is likely to have a second bottom - testing [38] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rose sharply during the day and then fell back. The far - month contracts are not recommended to chase high prices, and the near - month contracts may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation should be temporarily observed [40] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good, and the subsequent production situation should be concerned [41] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The short - term price is strong due to the decrease in inventory, but the long - term far - month contracts may have inventory pressure. The focus should be on the inventory reduction situation [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The low inventory provides certain support, and the operation should be temporarily observed [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the demand is weak. The medium - term trend is expected to be in the range - bound state, and the operation should be temporarily observed or short - term [44] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market fell with reduced trading volume, and the index futures contracts all closed down. The short - term macro - liquidity factor is uncertain, and the strategy should be mainly observation and defense [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillate and consolidate. The bond market sentiment is generally cautious, and the short - term bond market is difficult to break through the oscillating market. The long - end interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase, and the yield curve may flatten slightly [46]

民调还强调，大多数民众认为，任何外国侵略行为都是出于经济和地缘政治动机，而不是人道主义因素。（总台记者 邓雪梅） 当地时间2日，委内瑞拉一家知名民调公司公布的民调结果显示，90%的委内瑞拉受访者认为，美国对委内瑞拉可能进行军事干预的真正目的是推翻总统马 杜罗，以夺取委内瑞拉的石油和其他自然资源。 ...

2025.12. 03 本文字数：269，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间2日，委内瑞拉一家知名民调公司公布的民调结果显示，90%的委内瑞拉受访 者认为，美国对委内瑞拉可能进行军事干预的真正目的是推翻总统马杜罗，以夺取委内瑞拉的石油和 其他自然资源。 民调还强调，大多数民众认为，任何外国侵略行为都是出于经济和地缘政治动机，而不是人道主义因 素。 万科突发公告，一笔境内债将寻求展期 特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席；俄总统助理：目前暂无乌克兰问题妥协方案；外交部：任 何外部势力胆敢介入台海事务，我们必将迎头痛击丨早报 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 更多最新消息： ...

"为了和平，我们要开会讨论对委行动。"12月1日，特朗普的表态充满讽刺——就在他召开白宫会议的当天，美国已在加勒比海集结14艘军舰、1.5万名 军人，还被曝出对贩毒船幸存者"赶尽杀绝"的战争罪嫌疑。这场由防长赫格塞思、国务卿鲁比奥等核心人物参与的会议，看似是针对委内瑞拉的"缉毒行 动升级"，实则是特朗普在拉美搅局的一步棋，而中国与委内瑞拉的能源合作、在拉美的地缘布局，正被美国悄悄盯上，这波操作背后的算计，值得我们 高度警惕。 先剥离与中国无直接关联的"美国内部乱局"：这是一场权责甩锅的政治闹剧。9月2日的缉毒行动中，防长赫格塞思下达"不留活口"的口头命令，导致两 名幸存者被二次打击致死，美国参众两院已启动调查，多名议员直言这是"战争罪"。特朗普却公开表示"不希望看到二次打击"，一边为赫格塞思辩护， 一边把责任推给军方，这种"甩锅式切割"，不过是为了规避国内政治压力。而美国两党围绕军事行动合法性的争论，本质是党派斗争的延续，和中国没 有直接关系。 真正关乎中国的，是两条"利益红线"。其一，中委能源合作的中断风险。委内瑞拉是中国在拉美重要的能源合作伙伴，中企不仅参与委石油勘探开发， 还通过"石油换贷款"协议，每年 ...