央行公告称，7月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%，投标量4505亿元，中标量4505亿元。数据显示，当日900亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投 放3605亿元。资金面整体平衡，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率小幅下行，目前位于1.46%位置。七天 质押式回购利率则下行不足1bp，现位于1.52%位置。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同 业存单最新成交在1.62%附近，较上日基本持平。税期走款接近尾声，央行逆回购投放呵护，预计税期 过后，流动性有望回归平稳偏宽局面。 【市场表现】 【操作建议】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.02%报120.730元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.885元， 5年期主力合约涨0.02%报106.045元，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.440元。银行间主要利率债收益率涨 跌不一。截至17：00，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率持平于1.8820%，10年期国开债"25国开 10"收益率持平于1.7350%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.1bp报1.6600%，2年期国债 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressure, with yields generally rising; from July 7 to July 16, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 2 basis points (bp) and 3 bp to 1.66% and 1.87%, respectively [1] - The recent adjustment in stock dividend rates has alleviated the pressure on bond market valuations, making the risk-reward ratio more favorable; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index dropped from an average of 3.47% in May to 3% on July 14 [1] - The liquidity environment is relatively stable, with social financing growth expected to peak around 9.0% in July before trending down to approximately 8.2% by year-end, which limits disturbances to the bond market [2] Group 2 - The recent tightening of the funding environment has led to profit-taking in the equity market, causing credit spreads in certain bonds to widen; for instance, from July 7 to July 14, the credit spreads for 5-year secondary bonds AA+/AAA- and 3-year local government bonds AA/AA+ widened by 2.3 bp/1.4 bp and 2.0 bp/3.0 bp, respectively [3] - Despite the current adjustments, the core logic of secondary bonds remains intact, as the "amplifier" property of interest rate fluctuations persists in a liquidity easing environment [3]

Consumption - Consumer goods consumption remains stable, with automotive sales showing a decline compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year growth rate also decreasing[6] - Service consumption is affected by weather conditions, with travel, cinema, and amusement park attendance showing weak performance[6] - Food and beverage prices have rebounded, but the year-on-year decline in agricultural product prices is still expanding[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan issued by July 12, 2025, and 228.29 billion yuan in the first two weeks of July[16] - New housing sales in 30 cities have seen a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop narrowing from 22.2% to 20.0%[16] - The land market is cooling, with land transaction area decreasing and premium rates dropping to 4.88%[16] Trade - Import growth from South Korea to China has slowed to 2.2%, while Vietnam's export growth remains strong at 19.3%[22] - Port operations are slowing down, with a decline in the number of ships and cargo throughput at major ports[22] - Export freight rates have decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous week[22] Production - Overall production is stable, with electricity consumption rising due to high temperatures, and traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals performing steadily[28] - The photovoltaic sector shows marginal recovery, while the automotive industry also experiences slight improvements[28] Inventory - Construction materials are undergoing destocking, with coal inventories at ports decreasing and remaining at average levels for the same period[41] - The PTA industry chain shows a divergence in inventory trends, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking continuing[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing marginal increases, with transportation and communication being major contributors to price rises[44] - Prices of pork and vegetables have rebounded, while logistics costs continue to decline[44] Liquidity - The US dollar index has risen by 89 basis points, influenced by strong US employment data, with the dollar to yuan exchange rate increasing from 7.165 to 7.171[46] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 2 and 5 basis points respectively[46]

Group 1: Historical Review of Size Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus policies and abundant liquidity, making them more sensitive to capital inflows [2][6][4] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes [2][8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and an active M&A market [2][9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled [2][10][11] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structures and the rise of new economic drivers [2][12] Group 2: Historical Review of Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From January 2011 to December 2014, value stocks were favored as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining [2][15][17] - In 2015, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and a supportive liquidity environment, despite ongoing economic pressures [2][19][20] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 saw a resurgence of value stocks as traditional industries gained strength amid tightening liquidity [2][21][22] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks thrived due to the recovery from the pandemic and the rise of new technologies [2][23][24] - The period from August 2021 to August 2024 is expected to favor value stocks due to tightening global liquidity and economic uncertainties [2][25][26] Group 3: Core Drivers of Style Rotation - The rotation between size styles is less correlated with traditional economic indicators but shows a connection to major economic cycles [2][27] - Liquidity plays a significant role, with small-cap stocks generally outperforming when excess liquidity is present [2][45] - The performance of growth versus value styles is influenced by the relative performance of their underlying earnings growth and return on equity [2][42]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US Treasury market experienced upward pressure on yields due to renewed inflation concerns following tariff announcements by Trump, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising by 6.4 basis points during the week [4][13][56] - The report indicates that the US labor market remains resilient, as evidenced by unemployment claims data, while the tariffs imposed on major trading partners range from 20% to 50% [7][55] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may misjudge inflation trends, and long-term US Treasuries still hold investment value, particularly in the 4.4%-4.5% range for the 10Y Treasury [6][56] Group 2 - The supply side of the US Treasury market shows that the Treasury Department's issuance structure remains unchanged for Q2-Q3, with a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3 [20][26] - The report notes that the demand side reflects a historically high level of short positions in US Treasuries, indicating ongoing basis trading and swap trading activities [27][31] - The report mentions that the actual returns on 10Y US Treasuries, after accounting for currency hedging costs, are lower than those of Japanese and European bonds, which may reduce the attractiveness of US Treasuries to foreign investors [35][56] Group 3 - The liquidity in the US Treasury market is observed to be adequate, with the liquidity pressure index remaining stable and the implied volatility index (MOVE Index) decreasing [49][40] - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent statements suggest a potential for interest rate cuts, with several officials expressing support for a rate reduction in July [53][54] - The report concludes that the 10Y Treasury at a yield of 4.5% presents a high investment value, with recommended investment vehicles including TLT, TMF, and specific Treasury futures [56][57]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 600 billion yuan for 6-month terms [1][2] - The operation on July 15 resulted in a net injection of 200 billion yuan, following a significant liquidity gap in the market due to tax payments and local government bond issuances [2][3] - Analysts believe that the PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing liquidity, credit, and reducing costs, while also signaling a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [3][4] Group 2 - The PBOC's recent operations reflect a shift in communication strategy, moving from end-of-month announcements to mid-month disclosures, enhancing transparency and market expectations [4][5] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure liquidity remains sufficient [5][6] - There is an anticipation of continued net injections in MLF, with 3,000 billion yuan maturing this month, indicating a sustained approach to liquidity management [5][6]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表示，7月11日政府债券净融资大幅增加，随着本月 税期临近，市场流动性出现一定收紧态势，着眼于保持市场流动性充裕，央行公开市场操作从净回笼转 向净投放。 此外，7月14日，央行还发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，7月15日将以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式开展14000亿元买断式逆回购操作。其中，3个月期的操作量为8000亿元，6个月期的 操作量为6000亿元。 这也是继6月份后，央行再度提前预告买断式逆回购操作。王青认为，央行将买断式逆回购操作从月末 披露转变为月中披露，显示出货币政策操作透明度增加，沟通机制进一步完善，有助于稳定市场预期。 同日，央行发布公告称，7月15日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展14000亿元买断式逆 回购操作 7月14日，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2262亿元逆回购操作，操 作利率维持1.4%。鉴于当日有1065亿元逆回购到期，故央行公开市场实现净投放1197亿元。 复盘7月份以来央行公开市场操作，7月1日至7月9日，央行每日公开市场操作均为净回笼资金，累计净 回笼17963亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a proactive approach to managing monetary policy and liquidity conditions in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repurchase Operations - On July 15, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 1.4 trillion yuan, consisting of 800 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 600 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) [1][2]. - This week, 4.257 trillion yuan of reverse repos will mature, with specific amounts maturing each day, indicating a significant liquidity event in the market [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC reported that the effects of monetary policy on supporting the real economy are evident, with social financing stock growing by 8.9% year-on-year, M2 increasing by 8.3%, and RMB loans rising by 7.1% as of the end of June [5]. - The central bank emphasized that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of already implemented policies will continue to manifest [5]. - Moving forward, the PBOC plans to further implement a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance the execution of existing measures to improve financial services for the real economy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market has likely fully priced in policy expectations. In May 2025, both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were fully implemented, and with a 90 - day exemption for Sino - US tariff issues, Q2 economic data may be good. There is little possibility of the market trading monetary policy easing in the short term. Fiscal policy is adopting a "debt resolution + development" dual - wheel drive strategy, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will likely continue. For real estate policies, although comprehensive stimulus measures have been introduced, the key lies in the substantial recovery of consumer demand, and the policy transmission efficiency may be in the stage from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" [5][38]. - In 2025, an abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. Since 2025, the monetary policy's statement on liquidity has changed from "maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity" to "maintaining abundant liquidity". After correcting the bond market's over - reaction in Q1, the money market was relatively loose in Q2. The central bank ensured market liquidity through various measures during special periods. With the downward trend of bank - based fund lending last week, the central bank may use outright reverse repurchases to ease market liquidity next week [5][39]. - The supply shock in Q3 may be relatively controllable. The net financing rhythm of national debt in 2025 is faster than the same period. As of July 11, its net financing accounted for 56.66% of the whole year. Local debt supply may impact the market, and the new special bond issuance scale in Q3 may be large. However, due to the market's increased adaptability to supply shocks and the alleviation of the pumping effect by accelerated fiscal expenditures, fiscal supply may not be the core factor causing the bond market to weaken [5][40]. - In 2025, external interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has marginally weakened. Although the external environment is more complex, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the domestic market's pricing may become dull, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better than previous years [7][43]. - The traditional factors causing the "seasonal weakness" of the bond market in Q3 may have limited impact on the Q3 2025 bond market. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. With institutions like state - owned banks and rural commercial banks supporting the market and the possible decline of insurance companies'预定利率 in Q3, the bond market may show a trend of "easy to fall, hard to rise". But the downward space of long - term interest rates may need more factors to catalyze. The investment portfolio of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered for allocation, and the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds can be selected for trading [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Seasonal Weakness" of the Bond Market in Q3 - From 2021 - 2024, the bond market in Q3 showed intensified fluctuations. From 2021 - 2023, it presented a typical "V - shaped" trend, while in 2024, it had multiple staged rebounds in a downward trend [2][11]. - In 2021, the bond market in Q3 had a "first down, then up" pattern, affected by "RRR cut driving interest rates down → economic data and policy expectation correction → supply pressure disturbance" [2][12]. - In 2022, the core logic of the bond market's weakness in Q3 was "economic expectation improvement + marginal tightening of the money market + Fed's interest rate hikes" [2][19]. - In 2023, the bond market in Q3 was mainly affected by "exchange rate pressure + neutral liquidity + stabilization of the fundamentals", leading to increased volatility [2][29]. - In 2024, the core driving factor for the multiple staged rebounds of the bond market in Q3 was "policy expectation changes" [2][33]. 3.2 Traditional Factors May Have Limited Impact on Q3 2025 Bond Market - Market has fully priced in policy expectations. Monetary policy easing is unlikely to be traded in the short term. Fiscal and real estate policies are in a stage of effectiveness accumulation [5][38]. - An abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. The central bank will ensure market liquidity through various measures, and may use outright reverse repurchases next week [5][39]. - Supply shock in Q3 may be controllable. National debt net financing rhythm is faster, and local debt supply may impact the market, but overall, fiscal supply may not be the core factor for the bond market's weakness [5][40]. - External interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has weakened. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better [7][43]. 3.3 Important Matters - In June 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase year - on - year, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. PPI continued to decline year - on - year [44]. - The Ministry of Finance extended the assessment cycle of state - owned commercial insurance companies' performance indicators, adjusting the "net asset yield" assessment method [45]. 3.4 Money Market - Last week, the central bank's net open - market reverse repurchase operation was - 226.5 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature next week. The money market was relatively loose, with DR001 below the policy rate [46][47]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale last week. Except for rural commercial banks, other commercial banks were net lenders. The term spread between 1Y and 3M NCD issuance rates widened, and the 1Y state - owned bank NCD issuance rate reached around 1.6% [46][59]. 3.5 Bond Market - At the beginning of July, the issuance and net financing of national debt were stable, while local debt net financing was slow. New 20 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds will be issued next week [67]. - Last week, the bond market was in an adjustment stage under the stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bank bonds changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year national development bank bonds increased slightly [78]. - The liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active and sub - active bonds returned to 2 - 3BP. The term spread of 10 - 1 year treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spreads narrowed [81][85][88]. 3.6 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased but remained at around 8 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks and rural commercial banks increased their positions, while securities firms and funds reduced their positions [92][101]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was basically flat month - on - month and slightly increased year - on - year [92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high in June, the highest level since 2012 [3]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises showed slight improvement, with the BCI index at 49.12 in June, up by 0.07% month-on-month [11]. - The report indicates a correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate differential and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the differential at -5.6 percentage points in May, reflecting a slight increase [11]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises was 49.12 in June, indicating a slight improvement [11]. - The London gold spot price increased by 0.53% week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in late June decreased by 0.88% month-on-month, totaling 2.129 million tons [2]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.90%, down by 0.39 percentage points [41]. - The price index for cement decreased by 1.57% week-on-week, with a current opening rate of 73.30% [60]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 72.92%, up by 2.51 percentage points [2]. - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [2]. Exports Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June were 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1313.70 points, down by 2.18% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector performing best at +6.12% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].