信用债ETF天弘（159398）跟踪深证基准做市信用债指数 (921128.CNI) ，该指数反映了深市基准做市 信用债市场运行特征。 消息面上，据证券日报，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，综合当前外部经贸环境变化、房地产市场 及物价走势，二季度"适时降准降息"的时机已经成熟。预计本轮降息幅度或达到0.3个百分点；降准幅 度或达到0.5个百分点，释放长期资金1万亿元。这能够有效激发企业和居民融资需求，扩投资促消费， 提振市场信心。在浙商证券首席经济学家李超看来，降准的核心驱动因素是配合财政政策发力，但央行 也会综合考虑买断式逆回购和MLF（中期借贷便利）到期量与投放量；降息方面，仍需关注DR007（银 行间市场存款类机构7天期回购加权平均利率）与7天期逆回购操作利率走势，若市场利率持续低于政策 利率则降息窗口打开。 4月28日，信用债ETF天弘（159398）早盘拉升，现涨0.02%，成交额超17亿元，换手率超48%，盘中 交投活跃，溢折率0.01%。 中泰证券表示，往后看，今年股债都会有不错的投资机会，在国际形势不确定的情形下，债券仍然具备 配置的价值。从924以来，国内经济一直具备不错的韧性，我国的普林格 ...

黄金资产多空大碰撞 基金经理有的清仓有的忙加仓 在经过两年多的大幅上涨后，黄金正在经历一场剧烈的多空博弈。近期，黄金市场在"去美元化"浪潮与 地缘博弈的推动下上演极致行情。4月22日，国际金价突破3500美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，但随后 便陷入巨震，截至4月25日，国际金价已经回落至3330美元/盎司附近，仅仅3个交易日便从高点回撤近 7%。剧烈波动的背后，黄金资产正站在关键的十字路口。有重仓多年的基金经理清仓式减持黄金股引 发热议，也有基金经理选择不惧高位新进入场，一场关于黄金的攻守博弈悄然展开。 债券市场"科技板"要来了! 已有券商在储备项目 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议强调，创新推出债券市场 的"科技板"。在业内人士看来，这或预示着相关文件将很快出台，债券市场"科技板"也将在不久后落 地。4月25日，一位券商投行部门人士透露，目前他所在券商已储备一批科技企业发债项目，包括部分 国家级专精特新企业与获得多轮股权融资的科技企业。相比此前的科技债券与科技票据发行主体，这些 储备企业项目的"科技含量"更高。（每日经济新闻） 二季度降准降息预期升温 业界预计降准或先落 ...

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

中信证券：在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临 近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...

粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒也认为，二季度或是降准降息兑现期。一方面，实际利率仍 然偏高，需要降准降息提振居民消费意愿和企业投资意愿；另一方面，面对外部因素影响，二季度需要 更大力度的宏观调控政策支持。此外，近期美元资产遭抛售，人民币汇率压力有所减小。预计二季度或 将降准0.5个百分点，降息0.1个百分点至0.2个百分点。 "下一阶段，作为释放长期流动性的工具，降准的优先级仍然最高。随着二季度财政加大宽松力度，降 准最有可能率先落地。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，降息主要会受到人民币汇率和商业银行净息 差的掣肘。由于美元相对走弱，汇率掣肘暂不明显，但净息差的约束仍需要关注。因此，下一阶段可能 按照下调结构性货币政策工具利率、下调7天期逆回购利率和下调LPR(贷款市场报价利率)的顺序推进。 在浙商证券首席经济学家李超看来，降准的核心驱动因素是配合财政政策发力，但央行也会综合考虑买 断式逆回购和MLF(中期借贷便利)到期量与投放量；降息方面，仍需关注DR007(银行间市场存款类机构 7天期回购加权平均利率)与7天期逆回购操作利率走势，若市场利率持续低于政策利率则降息窗口打 开。全年看，预计2025年货 ...

银河宏观｜离降准降息还有多远？20250126 Q&A 当前中国货币政策的基准判断是什么？ 我们认为在内外兼顾的背景下，中国货币政策将在二季度从宽松的序曲渐进走 向实质性宽松，并将与财政政策协同发力。货币政策的优先目标会逐步过渡到 经济增长和充分就业，呈现结构和总量工具双重发力的状态。 中国货币政策框架是如何运作的？ 中国货币政策框架是一个内外兼顾下的相机抉择体系，实行多目标制，包括经 济增长、充分就业、币值稳定、金融稳定以及国际收支平衡。在不同阶段，这 些目标可能会有优先排序，根据内部和外部环境变化进行调整。例如，2024 年 7 月至 12 月期间，货币政策主要聚焦于经济增长，而进入 2025 年 1 月后 则切换至金融稳定和汇率稳定。 • 政治局会议提出创设新的结构性货币政策工具和新型政策性金融工具，聚 焦科技、消费和外贸领域，引导商业银行信贷投放方向，解决重大项目资 本金缺口问题，推动信用扩张。 • 预计全面降息大概率在二季度落地，具体时间窗口可能在美联储 6 月再次 开启降息后进一步确认时，或保持政策利率不变，单独引导 LPR 下行。 为什么认为中国货币政策在二季度会转向实质性宽松？ 摘要 • 中国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, and there are three reasons why interest rates cannot decline: the central bank's restrained use of monetary policy, the short - end's inability to decline restricting the long - end's decline, and the lingering concern of negative Carry [2][3][10] - After the Politburo meeting, the trading directions include grasping the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations, considering the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing, and making appropriate strategy and position selections [14] - The bond market is about to confirm the economic fundamentals in April. Holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy. In May, the peak of fiscal supply and loose monetary policy may lower the capital interest rate center. One can also take advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and extend the duration [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the bond market's sideways trend and non - decline of interest rates - The central bank's restrained use of monetary policy suppresses the downward imagination space of short - term bonds. In the TS2506 futures contract, there are two stages: in the first stage, the expectation of loose money led to the steepening of the contract and a high IRR; in the second stage, the positive arbitrage strategy value emerged, and the short - end interest rate was difficult to decline under the influence of capital interest rates and central bank operations [3][5] - The short - end's inability to decline restricts the long - end's decline. The current yield curve is extremely flat, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread approaching the lowest level in nearly 3 years at 21bp [7][9] - Negative Carry is still a concern but has been significantly alleviated. Although it is not the main contradiction currently, it may intensify if the bond market continues to move sideways [10] Trading directions after the Politburo meeting - Grasp the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations. Considering factors such as the fiscal supply peak in May - June, the impact of tariffs on the economy in the second quarter, and the low leverage ratio in the bond market, one can take advantage of the central bank's care for liquidity to bet on the downward opportunity of the yield curve [14] - Consider the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions, holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy, and the impact of fundamentals on interest rate increases is relatively limited [14] - Make appropriate strategy and position selections. After the tax - payment peak in April, the capital market is expected to be balanced and loose in May - June. One can extend the duration by taking advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and wait for the interest rate to decline [14]

Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 674 billion CNY this week, with a significant 600 billion CNY MLF operation on Friday, marking a net MLF injection of 500 billion CNY for April, the highest since 2024[2][6]. - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.01 trillion CNY to 6.34 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in market activity[14]. Interest Rate Trends - The DR007 rate fell to 1.64%, the lowest since mid-January, reflecting stable liquidity conditions despite the central bank's shift to net absorption in the latter half of the week[6][21]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, with the market showing a muted response to the political bureau's reiteration of "timely cuts" in monetary policy[21][22]. Government Debt Issuance - In April, the total issuance of government bonds reached 2.16 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 793.8 billion CNY, a decrease of approximately 680 billion CNY compared to March[29]. - The upcoming week will see a net repayment of government debt increasing from -130.1 billion CNY to 121.1 billion CNY, indicating a shift in cash flow dynamics[23][25]. Institutional Behavior - The net financing from banks returned above 3 trillion CNY, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity, although there is no intention to significantly lower funding costs in the short term[21][22]. - The cross-month progress of various institutions reached 37.7%, the highest level in five years, influenced by the unique trading calendar of April[18].

4月25日，上期所螺纹期货仓单录得202077吨，较上一交易日减少1226吨；最近一周，螺纹期货仓单累 计增加4514吨，增加幅度为2.28%；最近一个月，螺纹期货仓单累计增加46028吨，增加幅度为29.5%。 周五夜盘，螺纹钢期货主力合约小幅上涨1.67%，报3162.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 新世纪期货：月初关税冲击落地，但总量降准降息工具仍未发力，市场对未来谨慎心态，基差逐步走 扩。螺纹目前处于中性估值水平，短流程谷电利润也逐步进入亏损，成本支撑加强。五大材供增需减， 螺纹需求回落，有见顶迹象。后续下游需求下滑是事实，特别是出口雪上加霜。4月底有政治局会议， 一季度经济数据超预期，强刺激可能性不大，更多的是托举式、渐进式的政策支持，黑色整体或低位震 荡运行。 据调研了解，5月6日起四川钢厂将调整螺纹钢规格组距价差。具体调整如下：螺纹钢Φ16、Φ20和Ф22 规格在Φ18规格的基础上加价80元/吨上调至100元/吨 宝城期货：现阶段，螺纹钢产量小幅回落，供应平稳运行，但需求再度走弱，周度表需环比下降，旺季 需求表现不佳，供稳需弱局面下基本面改善未延续，叠加海外风险扰动未退，钢价继续承压、震荡偏弱 运 ...