周度报告-国债期货 债牛非坦途，继续看陡曲线 [T走ab势le_评Ra级nk：] 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货小幅调整，曲线走陡 国 债 期 货 本周（06.23-06.29）国债期货小幅调整，曲线走陡。周一，资金 面边际略收敛、股市表现较强、临近季末机构止盈意愿上升共 同导致国债期货小幅下跌。周二，市场风险偏好上升、30Y 国 债一级市场发行情况略偏弱，国债市场延续震荡偏弱走势。周 三，因央行超额续作 MLF，早盘市场情绪偏强，但午后股市快 速拉升，国债期货震荡下跌，曲线走陡。周四，股市上涨动能 衰减，债市情绪边际企稳，国债期货窄幅震荡。周五，股市震 荡走弱，国债期货震荡走强。但市场暂不认为 6 月官方制造业 PMI 会走弱，现券市场涨幅相对偏小。截至 6 月 27 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.546、102.265、109.070 和 120.940 元，分别较上周末变动 +0.020、+0.010、-0.070 和-0.320 元。 ★债牛非坦途，继续看陡曲线 展望下周，债市表 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 央行的"为"与"不为" 1、股市压制，债市先弱后强，曲线小幅走陡 本周（6/23-6/27），跨季与股债"跷跷板"成为主导债市行情的主要逻辑， 上半周受股市行情走强影响，对债市形成压制，震荡走弱，但央行加码流 动性投放呵护跨季资金面，并且保险补配，对债市形成一定支撑。进入下 半周，债市进入修复行情，股债联动效应的影响边际减弱，叠加股市表现 有所回落，期间，央行继续加码呵护，周五公布的工企利润数据显示修复 进程仍存在不确定性，上述因素均对债市形成一定利好。 2、跨季整体无虞，银行负债端压力可控 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，大行融出未有明显回落， 整体波动于 4 万亿元上下的区间，指向跨季资金整体无虞，银行负债端压 力相对可控。 3、央行货币政策的"为"与"不为" 6 月以来，大行买入短端国债规模同环比均有增长，历史上大行买入短端 国债规模较大时期主要集中于 2024 年 8-12 月，为公开市场国债买入的 ...

央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250629 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has lifted a 14-year ban on domestic institutional investment in "kimchi bonds" to improve foreign exchange liquidity and alleviate the depreciation pressure on the Korean won [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Bank of Korea announced that starting next week, it will fully lift restrictions on investments in foreign currency-denominated bonds (kimchi bonds) issued domestically [1] - The ban was initially implemented in 2011 due to concerns that excessive investment in foreign currency bonds could increase short-term external debt levels [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The policy adjustment excludes private placement kimchi bonds, indicating potential regulatory concerns [1] - This decision aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market and broaden domestic financing channels, reinforcing Seoul's position as a regional financial hub [1]

Core Insights - Family offices are experiencing explosive growth in Australia, with at least 2,000 currently operating, representing over 150% growth in the last decade [1] - The entry threshold for establishing a family office is at least 10 million AUD in liquid assets, often significantly more [1] - Ordinary investors can mimic the investment strategies of wealthy individuals through a combination of ETFs and a target annual return of 8% [1][3] Investment Strategy - The primary appeal of family offices lies in their customized asset allocation tailored to each family's unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and spending needs [3] - The long-term goal for family offices is to achieve stable annual returns of 6% to 8% over decades [3] - An 8% annual return is considered the "golden standard" for wealth preservation and transfer, offering more flexibility than merely tracking indices [3] ETF Comparisons - Two ETF providers, Betashares and VanEck, were invited to design asset portfolios targeting an 8% annual return over 30 years, compared to Australia's Future Fund [4] - The asset allocation for VanEck and Betashares includes various categories such as Australian equities, global equities, private equity, and alternatives, with VanEck focusing on a diversified risk premium strategy [4] Risk and Liquidity - Achieving an 8% annual return corresponds to a volatility range of 12%-18%, indicating the necessity for investors to withstand asset fluctuations [5] - Betashares has excluded private assets from its portfolio to mitigate liquidity mismatch risks, opting for more liquid equity products [7] - Both ETF providers suggest allocating 1%-2% of the portfolio to Bitcoin as an alternative asset to enhance diversification and return potential [7] Cost Considerations - Family offices typically charge a management fee of 1%, which translates to 100,000 AUD annually for assets of 10 million AUD, while ETFs have significantly lower annual fees [8] - Family offices provide comprehensive services beyond investment, including legacy planning and family governance, which adds value to their offerings [8] Conclusion - While ETFs may not fully replicate the services of a family office, they can effectively simulate a family office's asset allocation strategy for investors who are clear about their goals, can tolerate volatility, and prioritize long-term returns [9]

Group 1 - The book "The Myth of British Strategy: International Political Struggles in Europe, 1689-1914" challenges the traditional view that Britain's foreign policy was primarily focused on maintaining the balance of power in Europe, suggesting this perception is a historical myth [6] - "The Mask: Hygiene and Politics in Modern East Asia" discusses the role of masks in public health and political discourse in East Asia, highlighting their significance during various epidemics [26] - "Wine and War: The French Fight Against the Nazis" explores the role of the French wine industry during World War II, detailing how individuals in this sector cleverly navigated the challenges posed by Nazi occupation [30] Group 2 - "What is Meiji" reveals the modernization concepts of grassroots individuals during the Meiji Restoration, providing a different perspective on Japan's historical narrative [20] - "The Unseen Tchaikovsky" presents previously undisclosed materials from the Tchaikovsky Museum, offering insights into the composer's personal life and social interactions [8] - "The Conquest Code: Six Elements of Eurasian Prosperity" examines the underlying factors contributing to the dominance of Eurasian civilizations throughout history, focusing on agriculture, writing, maps, metallurgy, cavalry, and population migrations [47]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shengmei Semiconductor Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., is undergoing significant governance changes, including the cancellation of the supervisory board and an increase in the number of directors, which may impact its operational structure and strategic direction [2][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of June 27, 2025, Shengmei Shanghai's stock closed at 112.9 yuan, reflecting a 3.11% increase from the previous week [1]. - The stock reached a peak price of 115.5 yuan and a low of 108.45 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 49.822 billion yuan, ranking 16th out of 161 in the semiconductor sector and 273rd out of 5,151 in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Corporate Governance Changes - The second supervisory board's twentieth meeting approved three key resolutions: the cancellation of the supervisory board, an increase in the number of directors, and adjustments to the share repurchase price limit [2]. - The company plans to hold its third extraordinary general meeting on July 15, 2025, to discuss the cancellation of the supervisory board and the increase in the number of directors [3]. - The board intends to increase its size from 6 to 8 members, adding independent director Jiang Shoule [5]. Group 3: Financial Management - The company approved the temporary use of up to 250 million yuan of idle raised funds to supplement working capital, with a validity period of 12 months from the board's approval [6][7]. - The share repurchase price limit has been adjusted from 99.02 yuan per share to 120.00 yuan per share to ensure the smooth implementation of the repurchase plan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sely Medical, has experienced a significant increase in stock price and has made announcements regarding the use of idle funds and credit rating adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of June 27, 2025, Sely Medical's stock closed at 13.91 yuan, up 14.49% from the previous week [1]. - The stock reached a peak price of 14.2 yuan and a low of 11.65 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 2.657 billion yuan, ranking 30th in the pharmaceutical commercial sector and 4521st in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Company Announcements - Sely Medical plans to use up to 32.5 million yuan of idle raised funds to temporarily supplement working capital, with a usage period not exceeding 12 months [2]. - As of May 31, 2025, the company had utilized 201.8791 million yuan of the 2020 convertible bond funds, achieving an overall investment progress of 37.90% [2]. - The board and supervisory committee approved the use of idle funds, stating it would enhance fund efficiency and lower financial costs without affecting the normal use of raised funds [2]. Group 3: Credit Rating Adjustment - The credit rating for Sely Medical's convertible bonds has been adjusted from "BBB-" to "BB+" with a stable outlook [3]. - The previous rating was established on February 18, 2025, and the new rating was issued following a tracking analysis by Zhongceng Pengyuan Credit Rating Co., Ltd. [3]. - The adjusted rating means that the "Sely Convertible Bonds" can no longer be used as collateral for repurchase transactions [3].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 1、资金面聚焦：跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，跨季资金整体无虞。 下周，政府债发行规模回落至 721 亿元。其中，无国债发行，地方债发行 721 亿元、净缴款 742 亿元，供给压力明显缓和。 4、货币市场：本周 7 天资金利率大幅上行 资金利率多数上行：截至 6/27，DR001 下行 0.59BP 至 1.37%，DR007 上行 20.27BP 至 1.7%，R001 上行 1.22BP 至 1.46%，R007 上行 32.91BP 至 1.92%。 本周，银行体系资金净融出平均 3.86 万亿元，较上周变动-1067 亿元。其 中，国有大行净融出平均 3.98 万亿元，较上周变动-3931 亿元，隔夜占比 90%，较上周变动-7.39%。 5、同业存单 本周，同业存单发行总额为 7264 亿元，净融资额为-3827 亿元，相较上周 ...

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 跨季后，逆回购到期 2 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：央行加码呵护，跨季成本逐级攀升 6 月 23-27 日，跨季将至，虽然央行呵护力度接连提升，但是跨季资金成本还 是逐级上台阶。复盘本周资金市场，临近跨季，央行持续加码净投放力度，全周累 计净投放 12672 亿元，为今年以来单周净投放次高。与此同时，6 月中长期资金同 样超额投放，合计投放规模为 3180 亿元，高于 3 月跨季的 1630 亿元。 在央行持续净投放资金的背景下，隔夜利率平稳，DR001 全周基本围绕 1.37% 水平窄幅震荡；R001 除周五小幅升至 1.46%外，前四日同样基本稳定在 1.44%左 右。而跨季资金成本则持续攀升，DR007由周一的 1.51%逐日升至周五的 1.70%， R007 也由 1.56%大幅升至 1.92%。 ►展望：跨季后，流动性或将自发式宽松 往后看，下周一（6 月 30日）资金面将迎来最后考验，隔夜利率预计出现短期 冲高，2022- ...