Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of developing new consumption driven by changing demographics and consumer attitudes, positioning it as a significant growth point in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption is rapidly developing and has become a focal point in the market due to changes in population structure and consumer concepts [1] - Emotional consumption is identified as a key direction for new consumption development, leading to the emergence of new consumption sectors such as trendy toys, outdoor activities, pet economy, traditional gold ornaments, and beauty products [1] - The pursuit of quality-price ratio has resulted in the rise of new products like beverages and leisure snacks [1] Group 2: Social and Cultural Shifts - There is a need to embrace and guide new consumption with an open mindset, as evidenced by the shared consumption of trendy toys and anime culture among both middle-aged and young consumers, which is now a social phenomenon [1] - Non-professional sports events, such as Guizhou Village Super League, Jiangsu Super League, and Guangzhou Dragon Boat races, break conventional norms and provide better emotional value, stimulating local traffic and service consumption [1]

Core Insights - Ninebot Company (689009.SH) reported a revenue of 6.65 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 57% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 550 million yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of the year, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 18.39 billion yuan and 1.79 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 69% and 84% compared to the same period last year [1] Revenue Structure - The electric two-wheeler segment contributed approximately 67% of total revenue, with sales of 1.4867 million units in Q3, generating revenue of 4.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 72% [1] - The sales of self-branded retail scooters reached 418,300 units, generating revenue of 959 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% [1] - Cumulative shipments of electric scooters exceeded 15 million units by the end of Q3 [1] - All-terrain vehicle sales amounted to 7,500 units, generating revenue of 330 million yuan [1] - Direct sales revenue from ToB products was 244 million yuan, while revenue from accessories and other sources totaled 663 million yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The growth in domestic sales of electric two-wheelers is attributed to the expansion of distribution channels, with over 9,700 dedicated stores in China as of September 30 [2] - The new national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761-2024) was implemented on September 1, 2023, which has influenced market dynamics [2] - According to AVC's latest report, the domestic electric two-wheeler market saw sales of 21.505 million units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% [2] - The report highlights a dual characteristic in the market: rapid clearance of old stock and an upgrade in product structure to meet evolving consumer demands [2] - Companies are focusing on technological upgrades in smart configurations, riding comfort, and safety performance to create differentiated technological barriers in response to the new standards [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of technology-driven consumer products and new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the guidance from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session regarding the future development of the consumption industry, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and creating new supply through new demand [2]. - It emphasizes the rapid advancement of technology consumption in China, with certain products gaining competitive advantages in international markets, such as drones and smart home devices [2]. - The integration of AI with the consumer industry is identified as a key trend, leading to the emergence of innovative products and services [2]. - New consumption trends are driven by changing demographics and consumer preferences, with emotional consumption becoming a significant focus [2]. - Traditional consumption faces temporary pressures due to factors like housing prices and employment, but many sectors maintain strong international competitiveness [2]. Summary by Sections New Supply and Demand - The report discusses how new supply can create new demand, particularly through technological advancements in consumer products [2]. - It mentions the low penetration rates of certain tech products, indicating significant growth potential [2]. New Consumption Development - New consumption is rapidly evolving, driven by changes in population structure and consumer attitudes [2]. - Emotional consumption is highlighted as a key area, with trends in collectibles, outdoor activities, and pet-related products gaining traction [2]. Traditional Consumption Challenges - The report notes that traditional consumption is under pressure but retains strong international competitiveness [2]. - It anticipates a rebound in traditional consumption due to government subsidies in late 2024 and 2025, despite facing challenges from high export bases and tariff barriers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including consumer services, food and beverage, agriculture, textiles, and technology consumption [2]. - Notable mentions include companies like Dongpeng Beverage, Anta Sports, and Roborock Technology, among others [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant pullback in the stock prices of leading new consumption companies, such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, is attributed to valuation corrections rather than deteriorating fundamentals, prompting a reevaluation of the new consumption business logic in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, 2023, Mixue Group has seen a nearly 5% decline, with a 10% drop over the past five trading days; Pop Mart has dropped 9.3%, with a 19.3% decline over the same period; Lao Pu Gold has experienced a 13.8% drop in the last five trading days [1]. - The "new consumption trio" (Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group) has collectively lost over 280 billion HKD in market value from their peak [2]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group have significantly decreased, with Lao Pu Gold dropping from over 150 times to 35 times, Pop Mart from 128 times to 42 times, and Mixue Group from 48 times to 26.7 times [2]. - In comparison, traditional consumption leader Kweichow Moutai has a dynamic P/E ratio of 20.4 times, while international companies like Disney and Hasbro have P/E ratios of 23.7 times and 22.3 times, respectively [3]. Group 3: Growth Potential and Market Sentiment - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of growth for new consumption stocks, with some predicting that Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak in 2025, followed by a slowdown [5]. - The PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratios for Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group are currently below 1, indicating strong growth expectations despite moderate valuations [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the future revenue prospects of the new consumption sector, with expectations that product repurchase rates, usage frequency, and pricing power will be key indicators of revenue outlook [6]. - The overseas revenue share is also seen as a critical metric for assessing the growth potential of new consumption companies, with Pop Mart's overseas revenue share increasing from 23% in 2021 to 39% in 2024 [7].

Company Performance - The company reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, with further acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter. Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%, exceeding both internal and market expectations due to new product launches and accelerated growth in the European and American markets, alongside a faster release of production capacity [1][2] Chinese Market Insights - In the Chinese market, same-store performance exceeded expectations, with offline channel revenue increasing by 130%-135%. The company has been optimizing store locations and retail layouts throughout the year, enhancing the operational capabilities of its teams in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - Online channel revenue saw a significant increase of 300%-305%, driven by capacity release and intensified efforts to combat scalping, leading to a notable improvement in the overall purchasing experience for fans. The higher profit margin from online sales is expected to further boost the company's profit margins in Q3 [1] Global Market Trends - The company's global IP popularity is on the rise, with revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe regions recorded at 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively. In Q3, the company opened 23 new stores overseas, including flagship locations in Berlin and New York [2] - The combination of celebrity influence, high-quality new products, and local operations has rapidly increased the popularity of LABUBU, attracting a growing fan base. Other brands like Xiao Ye and SP have also gained significant fan appreciation, evolving into globally recognized IPs [2] Brand Engagement and Product Strategy - The company is placing greater emphasis on the health of its IP and brand, with initiatives such as character meet-and-greets and anniversary tours to strengthen connections with fans and enhance the IP image. The company aims to balance supply release with real demand to mitigate negative effects from secondary market price fluctuations [2] - In anticipation of the Q4 holiday season, the company is launching a series of high-quality products, including Halloween-themed plush toys and collaborations with popular shows, while continuously optimizing store designs and establishing fan engagement systems [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to accelerated capacity release and expected growth during the overseas peak season, the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 21% to 13.2 billion and 17 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 23x and 18x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry, with a target price of 370 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 48% based on 35x and 27x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The toy industry is undergoing significant changes, largely initiated by Pop Mart's impressive Q3 2025 earnings announcement, which revealed a staggering 245% year-on-year revenue increase [1] - The overseas market growth for Pop Mart was particularly remarkable, soaring between 365% and 370%, overshadowing the 185% to 190% growth in the Chinese market [1][3] - The Americas market experienced over a 12-fold increase, propelling Pop Mart into the global spotlight [1] - Online sales channels showed exceptional performance with over 300% growth, significantly outpacing the 130% increase in offline sales, highlighting the success of the company's digital transformation [1] Market Performance - Pop Mart's overall revenue growth reflects a broader trend in the toy industry, with Europe and other regions achieving a growth rate of 735% to 740%, and the Asia-Pacific region seeing a 170% to 175% increase [3] - Despite these impressive figures, concerns are emerging regarding the sustainability of such high growth rates, as indicated by analysts who suggest that the market has already priced in expectations of a slowdown in growth [5] Investment Sentiment - The capital market is becoming increasingly rational regarding the "new consumption" phenomenon, as evidenced by the decline in stock prices of Pop Mart and other related companies, signaling a shift in investor confidence [5] - The success of Pop Mart is attributed to continuous innovation and precise marketing, yet it faces challenges related to product lifecycle limitations and cultural differences in global markets [6] Future Outlook - The rapid expansion into global markets presents both opportunities and challenges, with the online sales boom altering traditional retail dynamics and introducing new operational pressures [6] - Investors are exhibiting caution, reflecting concerns about Pop Mart's future growth and the cyclical nature of the consumer industry [6][7] - The case of Pop Mart serves as a warning to new consumer brands that rapid growth often leads to subsequent challenges, emphasizing the need for sustainable development [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong new consumption sector has experienced a significant decline in stock prices, with major companies like Pop Mart and others seeing substantial market value evaporation despite reporting strong earnings growth [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has faced a collective downturn, with Pop Mart's stock price dropping nearly 11% on October 23, closing at 232.4 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization of 312.1 billion HKD [1][3]. - Major stocks in the sector, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mi Xue Group, have seen declines exceeding 20% from their yearly highs, with a total market value loss of over 280 billion HKD [1][3][5]. - Pop Mart's stock has fallen over 32% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD on August 26, while Lao Pu Gold and Mi Xue Group have also experienced significant declines of over 34% and 31%, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Despite continued inflows from southbound funds, local and international intermediary funds have shown signs of withdrawal, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2][6]. - Concerns about growth sustainability, a reassessment of business models, and profit-taking pressures are identified as key factors driving the current market adjustment [2][8]. - There is a notable divergence among institutional investors regarding the future trajectory of the sector, with some viewing the downturn as a temporary correction while others see it as a potential end to the growth narrative [2][10]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Pop Mart reported a remarkable year-on-year revenue growth of 245%-250% for Q3, yet this did not bolster market confidence, leading to continued stock price declines [5][8]. - Concerns about the sustainability of growth are prevalent, with analysts suggesting that Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak this year, leading to potential slowdowns in the future [8][9]. - Lao Pu Gold faces scrutiny over its business model, with increasing reliance on outsourced production and a disconnect between its luxury positioning and actual product pricing [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is currently in a phase of "light assets, high turnover, and strong cash flow," but there are signs of deteriorating supply-demand dynamics, particularly due to intensified competition [10][11]. - Some analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the consumption sector, citing macroeconomic support and evolving consumer trends towards personalized and emotional consumption [11].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a low open and a strong recovery, as all three major indices closed higher. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.72% to close at 25,967.98 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.48% and 0.83%, respectively. The total trading volume on the main board reached HKD 245.26 billion [1]. Fund Flows - Despite a weak early market performance, southbound funds exhibited significant net buying, with a net inflow of HKD 5.345 billion. Notable net purchases included China National Offshore Oil Corporation with HKD 980 million, Pop Mart with HKD 793 million, and Meituan with HKD 524 million [2]. Sector Performance - The technology sector saw more gains than losses, with Meituan rising over 4% and Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and Baidu all increasing by over 1%. In contrast, the semiconductor sector faced declines, particularly with Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 4% due to potential U.S. export controls on products using American software to China. Additionally, Nvidia has completely exited the Chinese AI chip market, and Micron plans to halt server chip supplies to China [7]. Institutional Outlook - Goldman Sachs highlighted the significant potential of retail investors in the Chinese stock market, although a shift in investment habits may take years. The firm believes that corporate earnings growth remains the core driver of the Chinese stock market, suggesting that recent market pullbacks could present a buying opportunity. Longjiang Securities noted that trade frictions do not alter the slow bull market trend for Hong Kong stocks, identifying three potential growth areas: AI technology and new consumption, continued inflow of southbound funds, and improved global liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 1.8% at one point but closing down only 0.81% at midday, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index fell by 0.09% and 0.18% respectively [1] - Major technology stocks exhibited weak performance, and new consumption concept stocks generally declined, with the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) experiencing a slight drop [1] - Shanghai's consumer market showed signs of recovery, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 12,302.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, which is an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities noted that the macroeconomic environment is shifting, with economic growth slowing and increased competition leading to a policy focus on both "safety and development" [2] - The latest planning from higher authorities may emphasize expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance, driven by ongoing trade frictions and pressures on exports [2] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in both new consumption and internet e-commerce sectors, highlighting a strong technology and consumption attribute [2] Group 3 - Pop Mart announced its Q3 performance on October 21, reporting an expected revenue growth of 245%-250% for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [1] - Institutions believe that the IP industry is thriving, and Pop Mart, as a leader in trendy toys, is expected to demonstrate significant growth potential in the short, medium, and long term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Pop Mart's latest performance report shows a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 245%-250% in the third quarter, with overseas markets being a key growth driver and strong performance in the domestic market [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year and by 1 percentage point compared to the entire previous year [1] - Analysts suggest that there is a "high cut low" allocation demand in the market, with the consumer sector attracting new capital attention as it is seen as a valuation low point [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce companies and new consumption, covering various fields in Hong Kong's consumer sector [2] - The ETF includes new consumption leaders such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting the prominent technology and consumption attributes [2]