财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-07-07 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 生猪价格涨幅明显，玉米盘面大幅下挫 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 投资咨询号： Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏强，LH2509 合约报收 14305 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 2.25%。 从业资格号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 15.29 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.76 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 7 月 4 日，自繁自养生猪养殖利 润为 119.72 元/头，环比增加 69.47 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -26.26 元/头，环比增加 105.45 元/头；猪粮比价为 6.23，周环比 增加 0.21。 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 玉米 上周玉米期货偏弱运行，C2509 合约报收 2353 元/吨，较前周结算价下跌 1.05%。 上周全国生猪现货价格涨幅明显，并突破 15 元/公斤。月底月 初阶段集团厂出栏缩量明显，加之局部降雨天气影响，市场生猪实 际供应减少，屠宰企业收购难度增加，带动生猪价格持续上涨。目 前来看，养殖端多控量挺价操作，市场整体猪源供应较为有限，生 猪出栏节奏放缓，形成阶段性供应偏紧格局 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA止盈 | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：原油小跌，震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：液氯降价，成本抬升 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘窄幅调整，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：短期偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：震荡偏弱，需求压力逐步体现 | 35 | | 瓶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyester raw material market is experiencing fluctuations with PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showing mixed trends, indicating a potential bearish outlook for prices in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, PX futures closed at 6796 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, while PTA futures closed at 4798 yuan/ton, up 0.42%, and ethylene glycol futures closed at 4267 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The spot market for PX showed a price correction, with negotiations for September to December around +8.5/+10, while PTA spot discussions were generally weak [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain weak due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 for production decisions [1] - Domestic PX production is experiencing a temporary decline due to maintenance of large facilities, with an operating rate of 83.8% as of June 27, down 1.8 percentage points [1] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operating rate is at 67.27%, down 3.07 percentage points, with expectations of concentrated imports in July leading to inventory accumulation at ports [1] Group 3: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - The market logic suggests that while PX supply is tight, cost and end-user feedback may lead to price declines; PTA supply is expected to increase as downstream demand weakens [1] - The trading strategy recommends a bearish outlook for polyester raw materials, with specific support and resistance levels identified for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Premium**: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the urea market enters a waiting period. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side centralized maintenance leading to lower operating rates and daily output, and demand - side trade - related export pick - up preventing significant short - term inventory build - up. However, export information is uncertain. The main concerns are spot trading and overall commodity sentiment [3][4]. - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. Domestic demand is weak due to pre - empted agricultural demand and high inventories of middle - stream traders. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, there is still significant long - term pressure on urea, and the price center may gradually decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (Urea Main Contract 09)**: The closing price was 1,737 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,733 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the trading volume was 155,952 lots (down 108,465 lots), the open interest was 222,192 lots (down 1,691 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 500 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 540.519 million yuan (down 374.532 million yuan) [2]. - **Basis**: The Shandong regional basis was 63 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 77 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and the Dongguang - to - futures basis (cheapest deliverable) was 23 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The UR09 - UR01 spread for Henan Xinlianxin was 38 (1,810) (down 320) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of some enterprises changed. For example, Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,500 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and Shanxi Fengxi was 1,660 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 84.49% (down 1.68 percentage points), and the daily output was 195,610 tons (down 3,900 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 million tons, a decrease of 77,400 tons from the previous week, a 7.06% week - on - week decrease. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases [3]. - Short - term: The spot market has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The market is in a waiting period due to expected marginal improvement in fundamentals in early July and uncertain export information [3][4]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main issues. Domestic demand is weak because of pre - empted agricultural demand and high - inventory middle - stream traders, and long - term price pressure is high [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed industry, including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news. It also provides views on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to the increase in soybean supply and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. However, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed are reported, along with changes in positions such as net buying volume and open interest. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9619 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions in rapeseed oil is 27560 hands, a decrease of 5099 hands [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are given, with the rapeseed oil spread at 69 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and the rapeseed meal spread at - 781 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and for rapeseed meal is 16855 (down 3294) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed, and related products are reported, along with price changes. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.82 (up 0.07), and the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: Global rapeseed production forecasts are given, with the global rapeseed production forecast at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons). Rapeseed import volume decreased by 15.37% compared to the previous period, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 88.82 yuan/ton to 5242.76 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46% (down 2.8%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, eastern, and Guangxi regions are reported, with most showing a downward trend. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 111,500 tons (down 10,500 tons) [2]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, with the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil at 340,000 tons (up 100,000 tons) and rapeseed meal at 287,900 tons (up 41,300 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Demand**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 30,000 tons (up 1,900 tons), and of rapeseed meal is 34,800 tons (up 6,100 tons). The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil is reported, along with the monthly retail sales of catering [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, as well as their historical volatilities, are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.59% (down 0.98%) [2]. Industry News - **ICE Rapeseed**: On July 2, the most actively traded November ICE rapeseed contract rose 24.80 Canadian dollars, or 3.5%, to settle at 734.50 Canadian dollars per ton, following the rise of US soybean oil [2]. - **USDA Data**: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and last year's level [2]. - **Canada**: Statistics Canada revised up the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and revised down the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by the increase in soybean supply, but the demand in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-03 市场矛盾有限，现货价格保持平稳 市场分析 1、7月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3571元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅0.14%； 持仓227295手，环比上周439手，成交152378手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳，沥青盘面则延续窄幅震荡态势。就沥青 自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂 生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体增量不多，当前供应压力有限。 与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求表现也一般，情绪仍较为谨慎，市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1230 | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1070 | 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1290 | 1290 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 玻璃2505 | 1190 | 1113 | 77 | 6.92% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 980 | 72 | 7.35% | | | 05基左 | -20 | 27 | -77 | -285.19% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 00种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The sentiment of US soybean oil is positive, leading to an increase in international oil prices. However, there is insufficient weather speculation for US soybeans, resulting in a lack of driving force for soybean oil [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,440 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.25% increase and 8,480 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.47% increase. - Soybean oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,018 yuan/ton during both the day and night sessions, with a 0.58% increase during the day and 0.00% at night. - Rapeseed oil futures (domestic) closed at 9,619 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.50% increase and 9,648 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.30% increase. - Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 4,063 ringgit/ton during the day session with a 2.34% increase and 4,079 ringgit/ton during the night session with a 0.42% increase. - CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 55.07 cents/pound with a 2.59% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Palm oil futures trading volume was 576,422 lots, an increase of 96,919 lots, and open interest was 452,137 lots, an increase of 23,906 lots. - Soybean oil futures trading volume was 363,901 lots, an increase of 108,837 lots, and open interest was 560,808 lots, an increase of 10,433 lots. - Rapeseed oil futures trading volume was 345,440 lots, an increase of 48,319 lots, and open interest was 330,024 lots, an increase of 20,684 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price was 1,005 dollars/ton, with no change [1]. - **Basis**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 202 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was - 19 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,179 yuan/ton, compared to 1,141 yuan/ton the day before. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 422 yuan/ton, compared to - 364 yuan/ton the day before. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, compared to - 24 yuan/ton the day before. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, compared to 42 yuan/ton the day before. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan/ton, compared to 49 yuan/ton the day before [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 19.1 million tons, with a slight increase from the previous forecast due to good harvesting conditions. - Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 42.1 million tons, 1.2% higher than last month's forecast and 0.7% higher than the 2023/24 level. - Thailand's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 3.52 million tons, a 1.9% decrease from the previous forecast, with an expected range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In April, Thailand's production reached a record 421,000 tons, a 39.8% increase from March. - As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons. - The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area this year, mainly due to farmers switching to other crops like corn, red millet, and cotton [2][3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [5].