Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the domestic market, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously released, and traders' confidence to hold prices has weakened. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories, and market trading is relatively light. However, the early listing of new - season corn in some areas and the slightly higher opening price have a positive impact on market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded from a low level but has recently declined due to profit - taking by bulls. It is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Corn Starch**: Some enterprises have added maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry is in a loss state with a low operating rate. Although supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, inventory pressure has decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The market is being squeezed by substitute starches. Affected by the decline in corn prices and its own weak demand, the starch futures price has weakened and is weaker than that of corn [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2197 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2488 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 70 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 14 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 860426 hands and 199400 hands respectively, with a change of - 21204 hands and 6510 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 56652 hands and - 45015 hands respectively, with an increase of 2315 hands for corn starch. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 51959 hands and 9406 hands respectively, with a decrease of 4305 hands for yellow corn [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 419.5 cents/bushel, down 2 cents. CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are 18485 contracts, down 52455 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2367.45 yuan/ton, and the factory quotes for corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The import cost - included price of imported corn is 1926.58 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 150 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 170.45 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 398.93 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields are 35.89 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 73.5 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 271.1 million tons, down 23.1 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 156 million tons, down 19 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 85 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; in Hebei is - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) are 27.63 days, down 0.5 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.3 million tons, up 0.28 million tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 46.21%, up 3.34%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 47.14%, down 0.56% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, up 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.79%, up 0.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 8.89%, up 0.28% [2] Industry News - As of September 6, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 98.3%. On September 9, Ukraine planned to increase the winter grain sowing area in 2026. As of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 68%, and the market is concerned about the USDA monthly report [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 10, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1117.0, down 1.93%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The coking coal market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 10, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.0, down 0.77%. The first - round price cut of coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coke market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1117.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the JM futures contract was 885248.00 lots, down 17361.00 lots; the trading volume of the J futures contract was 52202.00 lots, down 743.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts for coking coal was - 117717.00 lots, up 8713.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts for coke was - 4245.00 lots, down 164.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM5 - 1 contracts was 78.00 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the spread between the J5 - 1 contracts was 129.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 1300.00, down 200.00; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 1430.00, up 120.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.35%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 464.77 million tons, up 9.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.76 million tons, down 7.90 million tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 795.76 million tons, down 16.09 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 623.71 million tons, up 13.64 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 13.09 days, down 0.16 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, up 0.93 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.14%, down 0.22% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 64.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 4.23% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The US government released preliminary benchmark revision data. In the year up to March this year, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 [2]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the incremental value of China's manufacturing industry is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's largest for 15 consecutive years [2]. - A JPMorgan trader said that "the day of the Fed's rate cut in September" would be the time when "the good news is exhausted". If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the meeting on September 17, this market - digested positive news may instead become a catalyst for investors to take profits and withdraw temporarily [2]. - Wang Qiuping, the spokesperson of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said that the administration has promptly interviewed major food - delivery platforms. The relevant platforms quickly responded, collectively voiced their commitment to abide by laws and regulations,杜绝 unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slowly recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is 10 yuan, unchanged; the main contract position is 196,440 lots, up 2,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 7,105 lots, up 7,452 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.01 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,933 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 13 yuan; the main contract position is 276,136 lots, down 4,976 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,627.50 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 485,275 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum canceled warrants are 110,250 tons, up 67,400 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 7,979 lots, up 154 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 40 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 3.24 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the basis of alumina is 77 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 756.49 million tons per month, down 18.44 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons per month, up 25.88 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 160,494.61 tons per month, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume is 79.39 tons per month, up 15.06 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 23 million tons per month, up 6 million tons; the import volume is 12.59 million tons per month, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 57.60 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons per month, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged [2]. - The export volume of primary aluminum is 40,987.71 tons per month, up 21,416.99 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The aluminum product output is 548.37 million tons per month, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.40 million tons per month, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons per month, up 0.43 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons per month, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons per month, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output is 153.60 million tons per month, down 13.30 million tons; the automobile output is 251.02 million vehicles per month, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.04%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.59%, up 0.0027; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, up 0.0203 [2]. Industry News - From 2020 - 2024, the added values of China's equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increased by an average of 7.9% and 8.7% annually, accounting for 34.6% and 16.3% of above - scale industries respectively. In 2024, the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 13 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2]. - Since August, the central government has been promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality + service" [2]. - China is upgrading from the "world factory" to the "global supply - chain hub". 80 national - level advanced manufacturing clusters cover high - end equipment and new energy fields, with a 37% penetration rate of AI in the logistics supply - chain [2]. - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [2]. - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, which may lead to Fed rate cuts [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August 2025, hot-rolled coil futures rose significantly compared to the previous month and then slightly corrected this month. Overall, the spot price of the hot-rolled coil market reached a high and then declined. The supply and demand situation was relatively healthy. Although the inventory increased slightly, the pressure was not too great. The demand for hot-rolled coils in finished products was better than that of building materials, mainly because the terminal demand for plates in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships was relatively strong, which could drive up the demand for hot-rolled coils [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reached a high at the beginning of August and then declined, closing with a negative line. The main contract HC2601 dropped 51 points. After a short-term rapid increase, the price fell and finally closed at 3,346 yuan/ton, a 1.5% decline from the July price [3]. - **Variety Market**: There are 12 listed contracts for hot-rolled coil futures. Except for the 2509 contract, the price spreads between other contracts have narrowed. The far-month contracts had relatively large fluctuations in price changes, with a decline ranging from 28 to 64 points. The trading volume of the main contract HC2601 was 1,166,633 lots, a month-on-month increase of approximately 696,000 lots [6][7]. - **Related Market**: In August, the price of hot-rolled coils declined following the decline in raw material prices. There were signs of a marginal weakening of coking coal and coke, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in an overall decline in the black sector prices in August [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, in August, the closing price of the active contract hot-rolled coil HC2601 futures was 3,346 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm was 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis between Shanghai hot-rolled coil futures and spot was 34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 14 yuan/ton [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In August, the number of registered warehouse receipts for hot-rolled coils decreased significantly compared to July, from a maximum of 80,166 lots to 25,059 lots as of August 29. The decrease from the beginning to the end of the month was 32,112 lots. According to the Wande Warehouse Receipt Daily Report, among the 18 warehouses, the largest changes were concentrated in Jiangsu warehouses, while the other warehouses were relatively stable [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: WIND data shows that the overall supply of the domestic hot-rolled coil market remained at a relatively high level in August. From a weekly perspective, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils fluctuated around 3.2 million tons, without significant increases or decreases, indicating that steel mills maintained a relatively stable production rhythm for this product. In addition, the supply of other major plate categories, such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates, was also at a high level year-on-year, reflecting that the production side of the entire plate sector remained strong in August. However, affected by the seasonal off-peak demand in August, the actual downstream procurement demand cooled down, and the supply side also made small adjustments according to the demand changes, ultimately showing a slight month-on-month decline. The overall supply and demand relationship was relatively well-matched. In terms of inventory, the hot-rolled coil inventory increased slightly in August. Considering the changes in supply and demand during the same period, although the supply remained high but then declined slightly, and the demand was in the off-peak season but did not shrink significantly, the gap between the two was relatively limited, and no obvious supply-demand imbalance occurred. The slight increase in inventory was more of a normal fluctuation due to seasonal factors and did not cause significant pressure on the market [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The HC2601 contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a similar trend to related industrial varieties such as rebar. From the disk, the HC2601 contract was running below the 10-day moving average and close to the lower track of the BOLL, indicating a weak state [13][14]. 3.4 Market Outlook In August 2025, the hot-rolled coil plate market showed the fundamental characteristics of "high supply, weakening demand resilience, and inventory accumulation", with prices fluctuating downward and both the futures and spot markets weakening synchronously. The short-term supply-demand contradiction and cost support are in intensified competition. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in September. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak demand season and the implementation of policy production restrictions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, it is necessary to closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 8, 2025, the rm2601 contract of rapeseed meal futures opened higher and fluctuated and adjusted, rising 0.24% from the previous day to close at 2542 points. The full - day trading volume was 371,400 lots, and the open interest was 393,500 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - All contracts of rapeseed meal futures had different price changes throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 491,406 lots, an increase of 1,810 lots from the previous trading day [4] 1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of rapeseed meal options throughout the day was 77,516 lots, the total open interest was 140,720 lots, with an increase of 4,741 lots in open interest, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 8, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,638.33 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed meal was 96.33 yuan/ton [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the newly registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal increased by 3,642 compared with the previous trading day, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,403 [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - China's imports of rapeseed and its products are highly dependent on Canada. From March to August 2025, China imposed anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed, resulting in a decrease in imports. The shortage of raw materials for coastal oil mills led to a sharp year - on - year decline in the production of rapeseed meal from Canadian rapeseed crushing, and there was also a significant decline in the import market, which supported the price of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal is mainly used in aquaculture feed production. As the temperature gradually drops in September, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture will gradually decline, but it is still in the peak season of aquaculture, with a certain rigid demand for rapeseed meal [11] 3.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, the price of rapeseed meal futures showed a fluctuating trend on the day, and the price fluctuated between the 5 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average throughout the day. The high point position above and the 20 - day moving average suppressed the price. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through effectively [12] 4. Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal market is at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13]

2025 年 9 月 8 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,054 | 24 | 0.79 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,366 | 46 | 1.39 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 230,792 | 673,564 | -51,071 | | | HC2510 | 136,672 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 481,052 前日价格 （元/吨） | -29,686 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3270 | 3260 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 08 日 铝：关注去库拐点 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20695 | 90 | -45 | 70 | 485 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20665 | ー | l | l | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2603 | 13 | -17 | -6 | 146 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 101535 | -49681 | -19707 | -23633 | -18350 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 197393 | -9224 | -39215 | -63970 | -5980 | | | 电解铝 | LME ...

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Weak operation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest fundamental data on aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, -1, and 0 respectively, indicating a neutral view on aluminum and aluminum alloy and a bearish view on alumina [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,605, down 105 from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 2,125, and the open interest decreased by 11,422 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,980, down 12 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 279,608, and the open interest was 3,753 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,215, down 70 from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 975, and the open interest decreased by 291 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,990.62, a decrease of 97.85 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,188, a decrease of 16 from the previous trading day. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was 190, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 373, an increase of 4 from the previous trading day. The three - place inventory totaled 33,928, an increase of 1,078 from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. In August, the US ISM services PMI index was 52, higher than the expected 51 and the previous value of 50.1 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved slightly, with increased buying from polyester factories, but the basis continued to weaken. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, and the spot market liquidity was fair. The spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of the Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price increased and then slightly adjusted, with active market transactions. The coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. The ethylene glycol futures rose and then slightly pulled back in the morning, and the buying in the market moderately followed up. In the afternoon, the basis of near - term goods continued to strengthen. It is expected that the arrival volume in early September will still be moderately low, and there is still room for a moderate decline in the port in the short term. From the demand perspective, it is expected that the average load in September can reach the 91.5% level, and the rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the ethylene glycol futures are under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price will be mainly range - bound, with strong support below. Subsequent attention should be paid to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated down, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened. 9 - lower transactions were concentrated, with prices around 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 57 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 41, with the futures at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a 0.09 - day increase compared to the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main force position**: Net short position, short position increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to Hengli Huizhou device maintenance and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: Price increased and then adjusted, market transactions were active. Coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. Near - term basis strengthened. Foreign market was weak. Short - term arrival volume is moderately low, and port inventory may decline. Demand load is expected to reach 91.5% in September [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4456, 01 - contract basis is 99, with the futures at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.03 tons, a 2.6 - ton decrease compared to the previous period [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main force position**: Main force net short position, short position increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Price range - bound, with strong support below. Pay attention to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, demand, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data [12]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors** - Some PTA device maintenance plans in August improved the supply - demand expectation [10]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market has some expectations for demand recovery [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. 3.6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the resistance level above should be watched for the market rebound [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation mode. The spot market for linear LL has some price cuts by Sinopec, while for drawing PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina keep prices stable. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The polyolefin spot prices are generally weak at the beginning of the month, and whether the stop - fall in the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7225, 7220, and 7170 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 20, and - 15 and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.28%, and - 0.21% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 235618, 5386, and 212, and the open interests were 502560, 31934, and 8450 with changes of 12101, 382, and - 77 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 50, and - 55, compared to previous values of 7, 55, and - 62 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6949, and 6828 respectively, with price drops of - 15, - 16, and - 32 and declines of - 0.22%, - 0.23%, and - 0.47% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 207771, 5643, and 396, and the open interests were 595380, 45582, and 5316 with changes of 15647, 379, and - 273 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 10, 121, and - 111, compared to previous values of - 11, 105, and - 94 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2381 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 587 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton [2]. Oil Price Information - On Thursday (September 4, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $63.84. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.99 per barrel, down $0.61 or 0.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.35 - $67.41 [2].