近期，美债收益率持续攀升，引发市场担忧，而触发美债持续性担忧的除了债务上限和"大漂亮法案"之外，还有一个重要因素是美元利率太 高，导致政府偿还债务的利息压力不断攀升。 笔者认为，随着关税对美国经济的冲击逐步显现，通胀抬升的影响滞后，市场对美联储降息的预期有所升温。不过，美联储依旧担忧长期通 胀的回升，6月议息会议大概率按兵不动，但9月降息的可能性上升。因此，美元利率的上升势头会逐步放缓。 关税对美国经济构成冲击 美联储公布的褐皮书显示，最近几周美国的经济活动略有下滑，表明关税和高度不确定性正在对经济产生影响。大多数地区将就业描述为"持 平"，并普遍提到由于不确定性导致招聘推迟。美国所有地区都指出劳动力需求减弱，工资继续以"适度"的速度增长。 不过，通胀传导可能相对滞后，除非美国取消加征关税。因为美国进口商的关税承受力有一定的阈值，若超过这个阈值，进口商必然会向消 费者转嫁加征关税的成本。相关数据显示，一些受进口关税上调影响较大的商品价格确实出现了显著上涨。比如玩具价格涨幅创2023年以来 最大，大型家电价格创近5年来最大涨幅。5月，家电和户外设备价格环比分别上涨0.8%和0.5%。 美联储9月降息的概率上升 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on inflation trends, consumer confidence, and the impact of tariffs on economic activity. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Data**: In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.13% month-over-month, which was below the expected 0.2%. The core CPI rose by 0.3%, also falling short of expectations. This indicates a weak inflation environment despite some positive sentiment in soft data like consumer confidence indices [1][6][15]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: High tariffs have negatively impacted the U.S. economy, acting like a tax increase on residents. This has led to a decline in labor income and reduced transfer payments, which in turn has constrained consumer spending and increased living costs [5][9]. - **Consumer Confidence vs. Hard Data**: There is a divergence between soft data (like small business and consumer confidence indices) showing recovery and hard data (like unemployment claims and inflation metrics) indicating weakness. This discrepancy is largely attributed to the adverse effects of tariff conflicts [2][7][8]. - **Service Sector Trends**: The service sector has seen a decline in inflation, with rental prices unexpectedly dropping, reflecting a trend of consumers opting for cheaper options due to budget constraints [4][12]. - **Future CPI Predictions**: It is anticipated that the CPI will begin to rise from May onwards, potentially reaching a year-end level of around 3%. However, the month-over-month growth is expected to remain lower than market predictions [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Automobile Market Dynamics**: The U.S. automobile market is experiencing mixed signals, with new car prices negatively contributing to inflation due to weak demand and high interest rates, while parts prices have surged due to tariffs [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: Since April 2, prices of imported goods, particularly from China, have risen, with a monthly increase of 0.7%. In contrast, imports from Canada and Mexico have shown deflationary trends [10]. - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook**: Given the economic data indicating a marginal recession, there is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts in September and December [16]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events are highlighted as significant sources of market uncertainty, potentially overshadowing economic data like CPI [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the U.S. economy and the factors influencing it.

今日周四（6月12日）亚欧时段，现货黄金延续上涨走势。日内将可关注美国至6月7日当周初请失业金 人数(万人)、美国5月PPI年率及月率等数据，市场预期初请数据相对于前值减少，而会利空金价，PPI 数据预期好于前值，而会增强通胀预期，也会利空金价。但由于周初请数值变化不大，昨日CPI数据整 体又表现走低，故此，大概率晚间走势还是震荡走盘后继续走强收涨为主。 【要闻速递】 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，5月消费者物价指数(CPI)环比仅上涨0.1%，低于经济学家预期的 0.2%，同比上涨2.4%。核心CPI(剔除食品和能源价格)同样表现温和，环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨2.8%。 这一低于预期的通胀数据引发了市场对美联储货币政策的重新评估。独立金属交易商Tai Wong指出，核 心CPI涨幅意外偏低导致美元和美债收益率下跌，贵金属市场因此获得提振。市场普遍预期，美联储可 能在9月启动降息，CME FedWatch工具显示，交易商认为9月降息的可能性已升至70%。周三金价上涨 近1%，收报3354.93美元/盎司。 【黄金技术分析】 Economies.com的分析师今日最新观点：现货黄金上一交易日大幅跳涨，成功突破 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The latest gold price reached a high of $3398.55 per ounce, marking a new weekly peak, before experiencing a drop to $3338 due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - Market sentiment indicates a decrease in risk aversion, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the gold price is in a strong upward trend, with key support at $3370 and resistance at $3405, indicating a strategy of buying on dips [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell by $0.47 to $69.40 per barrel, while WTI dropped by $0.33 to $67.84, following a previous day of over 4% gains [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. inventories are driving market dynamics, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [5] - Technical indicators show a bullish trend for oil prices, with expectations of further increases if resistance levels are broken, particularly targeting the $70 mark [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The flat inflation data in the US may be seen by the Trump administration as a favorable condition to maintain the tariff policy, but due to the clear role of tariffs in the fiscal plan, the Trump administration is unlikely to significantly increase tariffs easily [2][13] - The flat consumption data is related to the flat employment growth, the decline in consumer confidence, and the Fed's stance on combating inflation [2][7] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will eventually undermine importer confidence, making the problem of commodity shortages more obvious and increasing price pressure [2] Summary by Related Content Inflation Data Analysis - The overall CPI data in the US in May was flat, with stable year - on - year changes in core, energy, and food CPI. Prices remained stable despite new tariffs in April and May, and the ability of importers to pass on tariffs to consumers is uncertain [2][4] - The housing price index was the main driver of the CPI increase in May, while the energy price index decreased month - on - month [3] Consumption and Employment Situation - Consumption data is affected by employment growth, consumer confidence, and the Fed's anti - inflation stance. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US has been steadily declining since this year, and GDP and consumer spending growth may return to the non - farm employment growth rate [2][7] - The consumer confidence index in April and May was at the fourth - lowest point on record. Although consumer confidence decline is related to expected inflation, inflation expectations may lead to a decrease in consumer spending [9] Tariff Policy and Its Impact - The Trump administration is unlikely to revoke or reduce tariffs easily, nor will it significantly increase tariffs easily, as tariffs are expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in the next 10 years [2][13] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will affect importer confidence, and if energy prices rebound, price pressure in the US may increase [2][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have significantly increased, reaching $3430.29 per ounce with a rise of 1.33% [1][3] - The opening price for gold today was $3384.94 per ounce, with a high of $3432.70 and a low of $3379.33 [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation appears to be moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while labor data suggests a potential rise in unemployment [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased slightly by 0.1%, and initial jobless claims remain high at 248,000 [2] - These factors have heightened expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early fall, with a 61% probability for a rate cut in September [2] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve movements, has decreased to 3.891% due to the recent data [2] - Economists predict a modest increase in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May, aligning with the Federal Reserve's inflation target [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets set at $3435 and $3500, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On June 12, gold opened at $3356.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3398.86, and closed at $3386.58, marking a daily increase of $30.48 or 0.91% [1]. - The daily trading range was $60.28, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell, supporting gold prices, as both employment and inflation data showed signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3][7]. - The market anticipates a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September, despite strong non-farm payroll data that reduced immediate cut expectations [5][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are fueling market risk aversion, which benefits gold prices [8]. - Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for a 200 basis point rate cut have further strengthened the outlook for gold [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by the 5-month moving average, despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded from key support levels, with expectations to reach the upper Bollinger Band at $3500 [11]. - The daily chart reflects a bullish outlook, with gold stabilizing above the 5-10 day moving averages and aiming for targets of $3435 and $3500 [13]. Investment Strategy - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at support levels around $3371 or $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3400 or $3435 [13].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

文章来源 报告导读： 5 月美国 CPI 环比回落，增速不及预期，核心商品中仅个别分项存在价格上 涨，整体尚未体现出关税影响。我们认为，在库存缓冲、关税政策与消费需求不确定性影 响下，企业提价或存在一定时滞， 6 月通胀数据仍存在反弹压力。在就业尚稳，通胀不确 定性仍存的情况下，美联储短期仍难以降息。 2025 年 5 月美国通胀环比回落，增速不及预期。 5 月美国 CPI 同比 2.4% （前值 2.3% ，市场预期 2.4% ），核心 CPI 同比维持在 2.8% （市场预期 2.9% ）。环比来看， 5 月 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，略低于市场预期（ 0.2% ）；核心 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，市场预期 0.3% 。 具体来看， 5 月除食品通胀环比有所回升外，能源、核心商品与核心服务通胀环比均较 4 月有所回落。 其中，能源是拖累 CPI 环比的核心分项。 核心商品方面， 5 月尚未体现出明显的通胀回升压力，仅在个 别分项通胀涨幅相对明显，例如家具（窗帘地毯）、汽车零件、玩具、电脑、药品等。而服装、新车、酒 精饮料等通胀环比增速均有回落； 核心服务方面 ， 租金、 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in the U.S. inflation rate, with May's CPI data showing a decrease that was below market expectations. This decline is attributed to low energy prices influenced by trade disputes and OPEC+ production increases, as well as companies stabilizing product prices by absorbing tariff costs [4] - It highlights that only certain sectors are experiencing price increases, while significant categories like clothing and automotive prices continue to fall. Additionally, consumer confidence has been impacted by tariffs, leading to a decrease in demand for travel-related services [4] Group 2 - The article reports on a fire at Jiangxi Yangfan's workshop, which may affect the supply of light initiator intermediates. The demand for light initiators is driven by the PCB industry, with Jiurich and Yangfan being major suppliers. The domestic production and sales of light initiators are on the rise, and product prices are expected to rebound from their lows [5] - It also notes the recent frequency of accidents in chemical enterprises, which has impacted the supply of chemicals like caprolactam. The article suggests focusing on the nylon and specialty nylon supply chain, as caprolactam is used to produce nylon 6, with a current production capacity of 7.1 million tons per year in China [6]