1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the A - share market showed an interval - oscillating pattern with significant structural differentiation. The market style shifted from traditional core assets to growth - type targets. - Policy support is an important factor for the market, but the economic recovery still faces internal and external challenges. The full recovery of economic endogenous momentum requires stronger policy support. - In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate. It is advisable to reduce long positions in small - and medium - cap stocks on rallies. For empty - position investors, it is recommended to be patient and focus on layout opportunities when the index pulls back to the lower edge of the interval. In the medium - and long - term, allocation should be cautious, with emphasis on tracking the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1股指延续区间震荡态势 - **行情回顾**: From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the A - share market oscillated upward due to the acceleration of the AI industry and policy benefits. Then it adjusted under the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs". From mid - April to the end of the year, it regained its upward momentum due to domestic policy support and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions. Structurally, small - and medium - cap stock index futures were more elastic than large - cap stocks, and the CSI 1000 led the gains several times in the first half of the year [8]. - **行业表现**: In the first half of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious - metal - related non - ferrous metals and high - dividend bank sectors led the gains, while coal, food and beverage, and real estate sectors declined. Different time periods had different dominant styles [10]. - **股指基差**: The expansion of market - neutral strategies and the increase in index dividend rates led to an increase in index futures discounts. It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the seasonal discount of stock index futures will be relatively larger than in previous years, but the absolute degree of discount will gradually decrease [11][14][16]. 3.2市场估值：关注盈利带动估值消化 - **中证500和中证1000指数**: As of June 27, the price - to - book ratios of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes were at historically low - to - medium levels, at 1.91 and 2.13 respectively, in the 49.20% and 23.71% quantiles of the past 10 years [20]. - **上证50和沪深300指数**: As of June 27, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes were relatively high, while the price - to - book ratios were relatively low, showing a valuation divergence. The recovery of profitability is crucial for digesting the price - to - earnings ratio and repairing the divergence [22]. - **指数拥挤度**: The market style may continue to shift towards growth - type targets. The relative valuation of small - cap growth - style assets has increased significantly, and the difference in the crowding degree between the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed [24][28]. - **股债性价比**: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the significant rise in the market since the end of September, the stock market is running at a low level. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, the yield of interest - rate bonds is expected to continue to decline, and the relative valuation of the stock market is still at a relatively high level [34]. - **估值小结**: After the valuation repair since the end of September, the relative valuation advantage of the stock market over bonds has weakened. The market is internally differentiated, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. The difference in the crowding degree between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes will continue to oscillate upward [36][37]. 3.3国内预期向现实转化仍存阻力 - **金融传导效率好转，政策效果需进一步释放**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 money supply rebounded. The conversion from M2 to M1 began to appear, but the long - term investment willingness of real - economy enterprises was still weak, and the credit policy to stimulate consumption had not fully taken effect [37]. - **通缩压力未完全消退，利润水平修复仍处于筑底阶段**: The net profit of constituent stocks of each index is still at the bottoming stage, showing differentiation. The profit of large - scale industrial enterprises has not formed a continuous repair trend. The price level shows that the economy is still on the verge of deflation, and the demand - side momentum has not fully recovered [39][44]. 3.4资产配置转移预期提升，资本账户压力或将缓解 - **资产配置转移预期提升**: The central bank cut the reserve ratio and policy interest rates, and commercial banks lowered deposit rates. The "deposit relocation" expectation has increased, and funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to bank wealth management and the capital market, which is expected to bring sufficient allocation funds to the A - share market [46][49]. - **美元主导因素转变，资本金融账户压力或将缓解**: The US dollar is changing from a typical counter - cyclical asset to a pro - cyclical asset, and its weakening expectation is increasing. The RMB's passive depreciation pressure is expected to be substantially relieved, and the capital and financial accounts may enter a repair channel [53][55]. - **关税措施修正收缩空间有限，经常账户仍存在明显压力**: Sino - US trade is still affected by tariffs. The US faces structural contradictions, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" may support the US's tough attitude towards import tariffs, so the domestic current account still faces obvious pressure [57][62][63].

Group 1 - The recent confirmation of the framework details between China and the US indicates a potential easing of trade tensions, with China agreeing to approve certain controlled item export applications while the US will lift a series of restrictive measures [1] - Despite the progress, there remains a long road ahead for a definitive trade agreement, as highlighted by cautious commentary from US media [1] - The narrative in some US circles blaming China for trade issues is seen as unjust, with the argument that the imposition of tariffs by the US initiated the current difficulties in trade relations [1] Group 2 - President Trump expressed excitement over the negotiation progress, indicating that a trade agreement has been reached and that the US is beginning to open up to China [3] - The strategic importance of rare earth resources has played a significant role in the negotiations, with the US feeling the impact of shortages in various industries, including defense and automotive [3] - The urgency for the US to reach an agreement with China is underscored by the potential negative effects on American industries if the trade conflict continues [3] Group 3 - The US continues to impose restrictions in critical areas such as the semiconductor industry, indicating that the core pressure from the US on China has not significantly eased [5] - Although the US has regained access to some rare earth materials from China, the supply remains barely sufficient, and efforts to increase imports face challenges due to China's new export licensing system [5] - The control of rare earth processing and refining capabilities largely remains with China, complicating efforts by the US and EU to develop domestic alternatives [7] Group 4 - China's measures to control rare earth exports serve to strengthen its position in the market while protecting domestic interests and preventing the use of these materials in military applications [7] - The potential decrease in rare earth exports to the US may not significantly impact overall profits for China, as the country retains the ability to leverage this resource strategically [5][7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has lifted restrictive licensing requirements for ethane exports to China, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified companies like Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer that they can load ethane onto ships bound for China without additional authorization for unloading [3] - Approximately half of U.S. ethane exports are sent to China, and the halt in exports would negatively impact businesses in both countries [3] Group 2 - At least eight ships are currently en route to China after being delayed due to previous restrictions [3] - The lifting of restrictions allows for direct unloading of ethane in China without seeking separate approval from the U.S. government [3] - The recent developments indicate progress in U.S.-China trade relations, although a comprehensive trade agreement remains a long-term goal [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stone Technology has officially submitted its application for a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to raise funds for international business expansion, brand awareness enhancement, R&D capability strengthening, and overseas production capacity investment [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Stone Technology reported a revenue of 11.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.03%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.64% to 1.977 billion yuan [2]. - The company's operating costs surged by 49.38% from 3.987 billion yuan to 5.956 billion yuan, primarily due to increased sales revenue and rising tariff costs [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 3.428 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 86.22%, while net profit fell by 29.28% to 242 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Sales and Marketing Expenses - Advertising and marketing expenses have risen significantly, from 833 million yuan in 2022 to 1.923 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 16.1% of total revenue [3]. - In Q1 2025, sales expenses reached 951 million yuan, representing 27.7% of total revenue, indicating a continued increase in marketing investments [3]. Group 3: International Expansion and Brand Awareness - The company plans to enhance brand visibility and audience conversion through multi-channel marketing activities and expand global direct sales and distribution channels [4]. - Stone Technology aims to increase the scale of its self-operated e-commerce stores and improve operational capabilities in key markets such as the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Overseas Production - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to U.S.-China trade tensions, pose significant challenges for Stone Technology, with overseas sales primarily targeting North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific [5][6]. - The company reported that overseas revenue in 2024 was 6.677 billion yuan, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariff costs [5]. - To mitigate geopolitical risks, Stone Technology is exploring overseas production to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce reliance on domestic manufacturing [6].

国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日，10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has led to significant lessons for the US, including the need to reassess its hegemonic position and the impossibility of decoupling the two economies [1] - The trade relationship between the US and China is interdependent, with both countries having mutual economic interests [1] - President Trump announced a new agreement where the US will impose a 55% tariff on China, while China will impose a 10% tariff on the US, maintaining exports of magnets and rare earth materials [1] Group 2 - Trump has decided to lift the ban on US ethane exports to China, primarily due to the adverse effects on US businesses and the need for China to ease its rare earth export controls [3] - The US has failed to establish a coalition against China regarding tariffs, with only the UK as a notable ally, indicating a lack of international support for US trade policies [3] - China's response to US tariffs has played a crucial role in maintaining fairness in the international trade system, despite not actively seeking alliances against the US [3] Group 3 - The current trade negotiations show that China holds the initiative in discussions, with the US seeking China's cooperation, highlighting China's growing strength in negotiations [5] - The trade friction between the US and China is largely attributed to the US projecting its domestic issues onto other countries, rather than being a result of genuine trade disputes [5] - China's strategic control over rare earth resources is emphasized, with a cautious approach to US commitments due to past instances of the US reneging on agreements [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market in China is experiencing a bull-flat pattern, with expectations of continued support from monetary policy despite potential short-term fluctuations due to external pressures and policy disturbances [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, bond futures faced pressure, particularly in Q1, with a notable decline, while Q2 saw stabilization, resulting in a wide fluctuation in the ten-year government bond futures [1]. - As of June 27, the most traded T main contract slightly decreased from 109.301 at the beginning of the year to 109.045, and the weighted interest rate for ten-year bonds fell from 1.67% to 1.644% [1]. - The net basis of the bond market showed a convergence from high levels to negative territory from January to March, driven by tightening liquidity, while recovery was noted from April onwards [2]. Group 2: Market Phases - The bond market's trajectory can be divided into three phases: 1. From January 2 to March 17, tightening liquidity led to adjustments in TS and TF, with T and TL also experiencing corrections [2]. 2. From March 18 to April 9, market sentiment improved, leading to a comprehensive rebound due to a marginal easing of liquidity and reduced risk appetite from U.S.-China trade tensions [2]. 3. From April 10 to the present, the market initially declined but later rebounded as trade tensions eased and the central bank injected liquidity through reverse repos [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a bull-flat pattern in the second half of the year, with inflation constraints supporting a continued loose monetary environment [3]. - The anticipated CPI recovery is unlikely to exceed previous highs, and the current economic environment suggests that actual interest rates may need to remain low to support high-quality economic development [3]. - The trend of narrowing term spreads is expected to continue, driven by a "scarcity of assets" in the residential financial management sector due to cooling expectations in the real estate market [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt two strategies in the bond futures market: buying long-term TL contracts on dips and shorting TS (or TF) while going long on T (or TL) [4]. - The current negative net basis across various contracts suggests potential for positive arbitrage opportunities, although caution is advised in short-term participation due to limited upside in net basis recovery [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The results of the second Sino-US meeting were not significant. The US initiated new home appliance tariff policies and restrictions on key chip equipment. With the 90-day exemption period for various countries ending soon, there is a risk of tariffs impacting the market again in the next two weeks. It's necessary to guard against Trump's potential extreme pressure, similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and potential macroeconomic positives from the Politburo meeting in late June - July should be watched [4]. - The real estate sales are seasonally recovering from a low level, but the peak season is not booming. The service industry shows structural differentiation and a slight decline from its high level. In May, production and investment in the real economy declined, while consumption took the lead with the boost of fiscal subsidies. The logic of manufacturing rush exports continues, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is marginally cooling, and prices are expected to oscillate upwards. Attention should be paid to whether fiscal policy will further support the economic center in the second half of the year [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity is also tending to be loose due to the Fed's dovish guidance and declining economic data. Financial conditions have significantly improved. Coupled with the expected rebound of the US dollar index, the domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, with inflows from passive ETFs and margin trading funds, while IPO and other equity financing and unlocking pressures remain [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical neutral range. The stock - bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The pressure on the macro and industrial fundamentals is facing a marginal reversal, financial conditions are generally loose, and the valuations of broad - based index markets are generally not cheap. Coupled with the expected return of US tariff policy pressure, the stock market's upward path in the third quarter may be characterized by frequent setbacks, with an overall oscillatory upward trend. Policy - level macro expectations, excessive domestic liquidity, and the support of stable funds will support the lower limit of the stock market adjustment. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures during sharp declines in July. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: In the past month, A - shares led the global stock market rally, while European stocks led the decline. The performance order is: ChiNext > Dow Jones > Nikkei 225 > FTSE Emerging Markets > Hang Seng Tech > CSI 300 > German stocks > FTSE Europe. Specific index increases include: Shanghai Composite Index 2.29%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.37%, ChiNext Index 6.58%, etc. [8][9] - **Industry Performance**: In the past month, the comprehensive finance sector led the rise, while the food and beverage sector led the decline [12]. - **Futures Performance**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.48%, 0.53%, 0.91%, and 1.26% respectively, with significant narrowing of the discounts. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.16%, - 0.2%, 0.16%, and 0.16% respectively. The inter - period discount of IH increased slightly, while those of IF, IC, and IM narrowed slightly. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.08%, - 0.12%, 0.21%, and 0.35% respectively. The long - term discounts of IH and IF increased slightly, while those of IC and IM narrowed slightly [16][17] 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: In June, margin trading funds flowed in 37.5 billion yuan, reaching 1.84 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.02% to 2.27%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds reached 3.0185 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of 68.35 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 199.594 billion shares, with a redemption of 7.92 billion shares from the previous month [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In June, equity financing was 541.96 billion yuan, with 6 companies involved. Among them, IPO financing was 8.73 billion yuan, private placement was 533.23 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 4.35 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing rebounded significantly to a high level. The market value of restricted - share unlockings (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, equity incentive, etc.) was 218.5 billion yuan, an increase of 109.98 billion yuan from the previous month, showing a continuous marginal increase and ranking second highest in the year [25] 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In June, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 5.298 trillion yuan, and reverse repurchase was issued at 6.3795 trillion yuan, with a net money injection of 1.0815 trillion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business was marginally loose at the end of the quarter. The MLF was issued at 300 billion yuan and matured at 182 billion yuan in June, with net issuance for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral and tending to be loose [27]. - **Money Demand**: In June, the issuance of national bonds was 1.5958 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 889.65 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 706.15 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds was 1.34898 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 484.32 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 864.65 billion yuan; the issuance of other bonds was 7.22604 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 6.6366 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 589.43 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 10.17082 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 8.01058 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 2.16023 trillion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high, driven by the joint efforts of national bonds, local government bonds, and corporate debt financing [30]. - **Fund Price**: Last month, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 3.2bp, - 12.6bp, and - 10bp respectively, reaching 1.7%, 1.44%, and 1.37%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 0.7bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 3bp to 1.67%. The fund rate was significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly lower than the policy rate DR007 of 1.7%. The fund supply was loose, the debt financing demand was strong, but the real - economy financing was weak, and the fund price generally oscillated at a low level [33]. - **Term Structure**: Last month, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by - 2.3bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 5.6bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by - 10.3bp; the yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 2.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened significantly in June due to the central bank's liquidity injection in the open market, which led to a significant decline in the short - end. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the short - end [37]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: In June, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 14.0bp to 4.29%, the inflation expectation changed by - 3.0bp to 2.29%, and the real interest rate changed by - 11.0bp to 2.00%. Risk - asset prices rose due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by 5.0bp to 56.0bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 9.8bp to - 264.38bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.47%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate oscillated around the central level of the past three - year range [40] 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.928 million square meters, a seasonal increase from 2.021 million square meters of the previous week, but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 32.1%. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, with a slight month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The high - frequency sales trends of new and second - hand housing in the real estate market diverged last month, with new housing recovering but second - hand housing falling back to a low level. Overall, the real estate market remained weak, and the pulse effect of the new real estate policies faded. The overall sales center of the real estate market returned to a low level, and more incremental policies were awaited for boosting [43] - **Service Industry Activity**: As of June 27, the weekly average daily passenger volume of the subway in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained at a high level, reaching 81.26 million person - times, an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period last year and 32.5% compared to the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry declined seasonally from a high level. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities rebounded compared to the previous week, at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [47] - **Manufacturing Tracking**: In June, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.14%, that of asphalt by 3.8%, that of cement clinker enterprises by 2.06%, and that of coke enterprises by - 2.31%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.24% compared to the previous month. Overall, the domestic demand trend in the manufacturing industry rebounded, while the external demand was weak [51] - **Cargo Flow**: Both cargo and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The postal express industry dominated by e - commerce and the civil aviation flight guarantee sector dominated by tourism consumption showed strong growth, with continuous weekly increases. The highway and railway transportation were relatively weak, with limited growth rates. Attention should be paid to the potential seasonal decline risk from July to August [56] - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush exports after the Sino - US trade talks continued to play out. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, the risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day exemption period and the resurgence of tariff frictions should be guarded against [59] - **Overseas Situation**: In May, the US PCE inflation rebounded slightly, with the core PCE reaching 2.68%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month. Structurally, it was mainly due to the significant rebound in the food and commodity sectors, which began to be affected by tariffs. The service and market - based sub - items rebounded slightly, and the decline of the energy sub - item narrowed, with the month - on - month growth rate returning to 0.2%. Assuming the tariff impact continues for the next three months with a 0.2% month - on - month growth rate, the annualized month - on - month rate is expected to rebound to 2.43%, still below the 2.5% level, providing data support for the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal during the Senate and House hearings. Coupled with the significant downward revision of the US GDP in the first quarter and the significant decline in residents' PCE income and consumption in May, the financial market began to optimistically revise its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market expects the number of interest - rate cuts in 2025 to increase to 3 times, with a cut range of about 50 - 75bp. The expected interest - rate cut times are in September, October, and December. The probability of an interest - rate cut in July rebounded to 18%, and the probability in September increased significantly. The terminal interest rate after the interest - rate cuts within the year is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75% [61][65] 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium in the past month was 3.41%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous month, at the 71.3% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.45%, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous month, at the 29.3% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low neutral level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 77.4%, 68.4%, 75.8%, and 59.1% quantiles of the past five years respectively, with relatively high valuation levels. The valuation quantiles changed by 8.8%, 14.9%, - 0.7%, and - 4.6% respectively compared to the previous month, indicating a marginal slight increase in the attractiveness of small - cap stocks and a marginal significant decrease in the attractiveness of large - cap stocks [68][73] - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillatory rise and structural differentiation in July. Growth stocks are relatively dominant in style, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. Generally, the stock market tends to rise in July. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM during corrections, short - term trading on IF and IH after sharp rises, and medium - term long - term trading on IF and IH after sharp declines [76]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights China's recent request for rare earth companies to submit lists of personnel with technical expertise to prevent the leakage of commercial secrets to foreign entities [1] - The companies involved include upstream and downstream rare earth enterprises, such as processing companies and those manufacturing rare earth magnets [1] - The U.S. has shown heightened concern regarding China's actions in the rare earth sector, indicating that the reported news may not be unfounded [1] Group 2 - Following the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs on China, China retaliated with export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth elements [1] - The U.S. is reportedly attempting to ease its anxiety over rare earth issues by potentially allowing ethane exports to China in exchange for rare earth materials [6][7] - The situation is complicated by the fact that the U.S. has a significant surplus of ethane, which may not be as critical for China, thus making the trade-off less favorable for the U.S. [11] Group 3 - The article suggests that the U.S. should learn from the EU's approach, which involves a more conciliatory attitude towards China regarding rare earth exports [14] - The EU has expressed concerns about the shortage of magnets affecting European companies and is seeking a resolution with China [14] - The article concludes that if the U.S. continues its current approach without adapting, it will likely remain anxious about the rare earth situation [17]