Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some factors leaning towards the bearish side [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show a neutral situation overall, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is trading above the 20 - day line but the 20 - day line is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on June 20. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have not changed much [4][14][17] - **Basis**: The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is 50, showing a neutral situation. The basis turned positive on June 20 [4][35] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huikang Technology is aiming to become the "first ice machine stock" in China, with significant revenue from its ice machine and home appliance business, but faces risks due to its heavy reliance on the U.S. market and family control issues [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported annual revenues of 3 billion yuan, with projected net profit of 450 million yuan for 2024, marking it as a "single champion" in the ice machine sector [3]. - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to grow from 1.93 billion yuan to 3.20 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.49% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 197 million yuan in 2022 to 451 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33.61% [5]. Product Segmentation - Ice machines are the main revenue driver, with sales expected to rise from 1.36 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, increasing its revenue share from 70.83% to 81% [6]. - The average selling price of ice machines is declining, from 435.22 yuan in 2022 to 385.9 yuan in 2024, due to market demand for smaller products and competitive pricing strategies [7]. Debt and Liabilities - The company's liabilities are projected to reach 1.82 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.96% increase from the previous period, with accounts payable being a significant contributor [8][9]. Market Exposure and Risks - The U.S. market accounts for 60% of the company's revenue, raising concerns about potential risks from U.S.-China trade tensions [9][11]. - The company plans to establish a factory in Thailand to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes and to create a dual supply chain system [14][15]. Ownership and Governance - The company is controlled by the Chen family, with significant family involvement in management and board positions, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest [16][19]. - Prior to the IPO, the company distributed 209 million yuan in dividends over two years, impacting its cash flow [22][23].

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

有外媒称，为确保管制措施落到实处，中方在稀土出口方面"引入了追踪系统"，即要求生产商提供终端 客户等额外信息。另外，中国商务部12日指出，"中国作为负责任大国，充分考虑各国在民营领域的合 理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查"。换句话说，中方虽说已同意恢复对 美稀土供应，但需要对买方的申请进行审批并发放许可，以防止美方在囤积足够数量稀土后翻脸不认 人。 据《南方都市报》报道，有外媒称，美国总统日前发文称，中美已达成协议，美国将对华征收55%的关 税，中国将对美征收10%的关税，并且中国将和之前一样向美国出口磁体和稀土材料。对此，商务部发 言人作出回应称，"中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展"。 与上次在日内瓦会谈结束后发表联合公报不同，这次中美贸易代表团在伦敦的谈判，没有发表联合公 报，这就意味着双方在这次谈判中，只是谈了一个框架，并没有达成协议，所有问题留待后续谈判再解 决。而美国总统在这时候发出上述消息，无非是向美国选民吹嘘他的"胜利"。毕竟，从他表达的内容来 看，中国的确是"吃亏了"，但事实真的是这样吗？ 事实证明，美国总统就是在吹牛，因为白宫随后做出解释称， ...

文/珠玑说 (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 美方急于宣告胜利，只为一场政治作秀 美国总统的谈判，总让人想起那些街头巷尾的商业喊价，他总想把对方"逼到墙角"，用尽一切高压手段，迫使对方立即妥协。 在他眼中，关税就是最锋利的刀，一刀下去，就等着对方喊痛、求饶，赶紧坐下来"求和"，所以，当他迫不及待地宣告"达成协议"，甚至得意洋洋地 提到拿到了中方稀土的出口许可，这更像是对国内选民的一场汇报演出。 伦敦会谈落幕，美国总统高调宣布"胜利协议"，甚至表示已经拿到稀土出口许可，然而华盛顿高官随即却表示"关税绝不降低"，谈判结果为何如此矛 盾？中方对于美国，又会发出怎样的要求？ 至于紧随其后的"关税绝不降一分"的冷硬表态，其实是他那套"胜利学"的延续，一方面，这是对国内强硬派的交代，表明美国在谈判中没有丝毫软 化，另一方面，也是为了在未来的博弈中，继续掌握主动权，始终对中国保持压力。 那个所谓的"55%关税"说辞，更像是一场包装巧妙的语言游戏，它不过是将过去已经生效的关税措施重新拿出来，换个数字，让它听起来更具威慑 力，说白了，这一切都是为了巩固他"战无不胜"的形象，证明自己从未"后退半步"。 这种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is "oscillation with a weakening bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottoming. The rumored crude steel production limit is set at around 30 million tons, which will change the long - short balance in the black sector [4] - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory overstock and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key is to monitor the signals of mine - end active production cuts or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost side is expected to support rather than drag down the price, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits will drive the price up [5] - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of a short - seller counter - attack. Once the price drops again, it may lead to a double - kill situation for both long and short positions [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (- 15), and the active contract is reported at 766.5 yuan/ton (- 17). The basis is 131.5 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the September - January spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 have declined slightly. The开工率 of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (- 2.96), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is reported at 60.59% (- 0.96) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.4753 million tons (+ 370,800), and that of coal - washing plants is 2.1474 million tons (+ 114,800). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9875 million tons (+ 75,400), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 7.3796 million tons (- 146,000). The port inventory is 3.0156 million tons (- 45,300) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (- 0), and the active contract is reported at 1,328.5 yuan/ton (- 27.5). The basis is 37 yuan/ton (+ 27.5), and the September - January spread is - 19.5 yuan/ton (- 2) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 74.93% (- 0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.436 million tons (- 11,700) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 88,410 tons (+ 10,080), that of 247 steel mills is 645,800 tons (- 9,130), and the port inventory is 214,150 tons (- 3,030) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long order for the J09 contract and wait to increase the position after confirming the market bottom [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The overall impact of Sino - US trade frictions on the black sector has weakened. As the off - season approaches, the demand for building materials remains weak, but the inventory has no pressure due to the decline in production. The industrial materials demand shows signs of weakening from June to July, allowing for a decline in hot metal production, and the negative feedback path is difficult to disprove. Currently, the weakening demand and the accumulation of iron ore at ports suppress the upside, and prices are oscillating near support levels waiting for new drivers [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with expected seasonal increases in shipments until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety has increased, leading to a slight decline in coking coal production. However, the overall market supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the coke production level is loosening at a high level, and coke production tends to decline due to increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits. In terms of inventory, coke enterprises are not enthusiastic about replenishing raw materials during the price cut period, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. Overall, the supply contraction is limited, the downstream rigid demand is expected to decline in the off - season, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, coking coal prices may continue to be weak [3] Alloy - In the alloy sector, the cost of production has been slightly repaired during the wet season in Yunnan and due to electricity price discounts in Guangxi, leading to a slight increase in supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. On the demand side, as the off - season for the black market arrives, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon - manganese in June was 11,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to May. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon - manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, and as the downstream steel consumption enters the off - season, the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The market sentiment remains cautious, and costs may still be a drag. The future focus is on steel procurement and production [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has significantly increased, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors affecting the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to decline, and the sentiment fluctuates. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led to a decline in the futures market. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and after the maintenance period ends, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5] Specific Products - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the macro - fluctuations have converged. This week, the demand for the five major steel products has weakened, especially for rebar. The hot metal production has peaked, and steel production has significantly declined. Although both supply and demand have weakened this week, the inventory is still decreasing. The main factors suppressing the futures price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [6] - **Iron Ore**: The port trading volume has increased, and the spot market prices have declined slightly. Overseas mines are increasing shipments seasonally, and it is expected to remain high until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2][6] - **Scrap Steel**: As the off - season for building materials deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price of finished products is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the resources are relatively tight, supporting the price. The demand has also decreased as the profit of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is negative, and the hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly declined. The inventory in steel mills is still decreasing, but the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [6] - **Coke**: After three rounds of price cuts, there is an expectation of further price cuts due to the off - season demand for steel and pessimistic market sentiment. On the supply side, the production of some coke enterprises has slightly declined, but the overall production remains stable, and the de - stocking pressure is still high. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining, and there is an expectation of further decline. The supply reduction is limited, and the demand support is weakening, so the coke price still has room to decline [6][7] - **Coking Coal**: The market trading atmosphere is poor, and there are still online auction failures. Recently, the number of shut - down coal mines has increased, leading to a slight decline in production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The coke production is loosening at a high level, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises is increasing, leading to a decline in demand for coking coal. The upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years. In the short term, the coking coal price may continue to be weak due to the high - inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3][8] - **Glass**: The demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has increased slightly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures market is oscillating. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the price - cut range of Hubei manufacturers [5][8] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the maintenance period ends, the supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The sentiment affects the futures market, but the long - term oversupply situation cannot be changed. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5][9] - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost of production has been slightly repaired in Yunnan and Guangxi. The supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The black market is in the off - season, and the downstream is cautious and has a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese in June has increased. The supply - demand of silicon manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [3][11] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost of production in various regions has little fluctuation, and the overall supply level is still low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The steel procurement has increased, but the downstream construction progress is average due to the college entrance examination and rainy season. The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The procurement sentiment in the magnesium market has recovered, and the price has stabilized and increased. The supply of silicon iron has slightly increased, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the cost may still be a drag. It is expected that the futures market will oscillate in the short term [12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦煤低位调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空博弈，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位 ...