投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沥青 震荡偏强运行 原油供应利空减弱 需求维持旺季 当下全球原油市场呈现供需双强态势。一方面，OPEC+产油国决定 8 月加大增产力度，供应端有增无 减。据显示，OPEC+八个主要成员国同意将在 8 月日产量提高 54.8 万桶，这不仅增产步伐快于预期，而且 意味着跟最初的计划相比，该组织有望提前一年完成复产。之前这些国家宣布 5 月、6 月和 7 月日产量分 别增加 41.1 万桶，这已经达到了最初计划的三倍。此外，该组织将在 8 月 3 日举行的下次会议上考虑 9 月 份再增加约 54.8 万桶日产量，这将标志 2023 年宣布减少的日均 220 万桶产能全部得到恢复。随着后续增 产预期的下降，利空影响或阶段性减弱。另一方面，当下北半球正处在夏季用油旺季阶段，需求因子维持 偏强状态，库存延续去化节奏。据统计，截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日当周，美国商业原油库存达 4.22 亿桶，周 环比大幅减少 385.9 万桶，较去年同期大幅减少 1806.4 万桶。同期美国炼厂开工率维持在 93.9%，月环比 略微增加 0.7 个百分点，同 ...

基础化工 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 中性(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 中性 | 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 "内卷式竞争"不同于公平竞争，它对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用 2024 年 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议提出"要强化行业自律，防止 "内卷式"恶性竞争。强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。" 2024 年 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议提出"综合整治 "内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。"参考解放日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日发表的文章，《综合整治"内卷式"竞争》中的表述，公平竞争与"内 卷式"竞争的一个本质区别在于，它们对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用。"内卷式"竞争，无视成本、价格、供需实际关系，为了抢占市场份额， 以严重低于产品成本的价格扰乱行业秩序，在招商过程中出现过度承诺现 象，加之相关标准、规范的更新速度滞后于行业快速发展，最终对整个行业 价格信号造成扭曲，无法对资源配置进行积极调节引导，各类主体内耗现象 明显，长期下来将导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced Housing Rental Regulations will take effect on September 15, 2025, and are expected to enhance market order, boost confidence among housing rental enterprises, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [1] Group 1: Regulations and Impact - The regulations emphasize compliance requirements for rental housing, including real-name signing of contracts, restrictions on deposit deductions without valid reasons, and protection of tenant rights, reflecting a strong focus on public welfare [2] - The regulations are anticipated to benefit the healthy development of the rental industry by ensuring that the rights of all parties involved are protected and that there are legal frameworks in place [2] - The regulations will also help eliminate non-compliant enterprises and individual landlords, which has been a long-awaited change in the industry [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The regulations encourage the use of private housing for rental purposes and support the revitalization of old factories, commercial offices, and self-owned residential properties to increase rental housing supply [3] - The real estate market is shifting from large-scale development to efficient utilization of existing housing stock, with rental housing being a key method to enhance the efficiency of underutilized properties [3] Group 3: Professionalization and Support - The regulations specify that the government will improve policies to cultivate market-oriented and professional housing rental enterprises, indicating a shift towards a more structured industry [4] - The rental market is expected to see a dual-track system of supply, combining government-supported affordable housing with market-driven rental solutions [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Data from 58 Anjuke indicates that rental prices in key cities have increased by 2.17% in the first half of the year, with core city rental assets yielding returns close to 5-year fixed deposit rates, attracting long-term capital [6] - The development of professional rental enterprises is seen as crucial for improving the quality of rental products and services, thereby promoting high-quality growth in the rental market [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [11] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the decline in coal prices since 2025, which will improve fuel costs and support profitability through capacity pricing policies [2][9] - The company's fire power assets are primarily located in northern regions, which exhibit stronger price resilience, and this structural advantage is likely to persist [2][7] - The diversification into clean energy is expected to smooth out cyclical fluctuations and contribute to growth momentum [2][9] Summary by Sections Historical Review - The company's stock performance weakened from 2014 to 2021, but began to recover post-2021 due to the "dual carbon" goals and deepening electricity reforms [5][19] - The core issues affecting performance included a misfocused transformation strategy and the burden of low-efficiency assets [5][24] Group Fire Power Integration and Clean Energy Diversification - The company serves as the final integration platform for the fire power business under the parent group and is steadily advancing towards a green and low-carbon transformation [6][28] - The fire power business remains a crucial support for the company, with clean energy performance gradually expanding to mitigate the adverse effects of coal price fluctuations [6][9] Asset Layout and Efficiency - The company's fire power assets are concentrated in the northern regions, where electricity prices have shown more resilience compared to southern regions [7][43] - The company has improved its coal consumption efficiency, reducing it from 293.17 grams/kWh in 2020 to 288.47 grams/kWh in 2024, placing it at an industry-leading level [7][51] Clean Energy Contribution - The company has a diversified clean energy layout, focusing on wind and solar power, which has led to significant profit contributions [8][30] - The clean energy segment is expected to continue expanding, with wind and solar power accounting for 36.51% of total profits in 2024 [6][38] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.34, 0.36, and 0.38 for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.59, 10.66, and 10.35, justifying the "Buy" rating [9][11]

(1) 焦煤等价格上涨,盘面情绪较好;(2)检修较前期有所减 看多 PVC 少;(3) 下游迎来季节性淡季,供应压力上升,盘面震荡偏强。 (1) 检修接近尾声:(2) 现货跌至低位:(3) 烧碱交割替代品 燈碱 升水增加;(4)煤炭政策较多,情绪较好。(1) (1) 原油支撑不足,国际进口货源充足,烯烃厂库存丙烷高企 LPG 现货价格下跌;(2)LPG燃烧需求季节性淡季,化工需 (3) 工民价差收窄,液化气价格弱势运行。 (1) 稳现实与弱预期格局; (2)预计7月中旬运价见顶,7、8月 圆弧顶走势,运价见顶时间前置;(3)后续几周运力部署较为 服告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸朝货力求准确可靠,但不对土述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资建议,也未 免责声明 别投资者将殊的投资目标、财务以况或需要、投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或者建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资，责任自负。本报 发权并可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸朝货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期> ITG 国留財 ITG 国贸 TTG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸朝 ...

2025年春来泰山，全市高质量发展大会的号角吹响奋进征程。作为市属国企改革"排头兵"，泰山燃气集 团以"保民生、强主业、促改革、谋创新"为引领，锚定城市综合能源供应商定位，以增强核心功能、提 高核心竞争力和价值创造能力为重点，深耕民生保障、经营增效、安全管理等关键领域，书写了新时代 国资国企高质量发展的"燃气答卷"。 党建引领"红色帆"，把稳发展"方向盘" 集团党委将政治建设摆在首位，构建起"三纵三横"党建工作体系。严格落实"第一议题"制度，上半年组 织党委会学习11次、理论学习中心组学习6次，领导班子带头讲授专题党课，推动党的创新理论在基层 落地生根。基层党组织标准化建设成效显著，394次"主题党日""三会一课"规范开展，62名入党积极分 子充实到党员队伍，形成"党委领航、支部战斗、党员攻坚"的生动局面。 在全面从严治党进程中，集团实施推进"三晒一评一公开"机制，完成55名基层班子成员、220名中层干 部、237名普通党员的全层级履职测评。通过17次中央八项规定精神专题学习、34场警示教育和48次集 中研讨，筑牢全体党员干部的作风防线。"线索处置-专项整治-制度完善"监督闭环的构建，更让廉洁要 求深度融入燃 ...

咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标 ...

2025.07. 23 本文字数：1264，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 具体来看，在网点定期存款方面，报告数据显示，2025年6月，银行整存整取存款3个月期平均利率 为0.949%，6个月期平均利率为1.156%，1年期平均利率为1.287%，2年期平均利率为1.372%，3 年期平均利率为1.695%，5年期平均利率为1.538%。 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 和上个月相比，3个月期下降5.5BP（基点），6个月期下降5.6BP，1年期下降5.2BP，2年期下降 5.6BP，3年期下降1.6BP，5年期下降3.5BP。 在大额存单方面，根据报告监测数据显示，2025年6月，大额存单3个月期平均利率为1.179%，6个 月期平均利率为1.391%，1年期平均利率为1.477%，2年期平均利率为1.462%，3年期平均利率为 1.768%，5年期平均利率为1.700%。 和上个月相比，大额存单各期限平均利率均下降，3个月期下降5.96BP，6个月期下降6.74BP，1年 期下降8.39BP，2年期下降18.67BP，3年期下降30.01BP，5年期持平。 在结构性存款方面，根据监测数据显示，2025 ...

以下文章来源于井外价值中心 ，作者井外价值中心 井外价值中心 . 大宗商品-金融投资-资产配置 文 | 井外价值中心 来源 | 井外价值中心 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 国能局核查煤炭超产让火势扩大 7月22日中午，一则国能局核查煤炭超产信息传遍网络，午盘的焦煤闻风拉升封板，文件溯源，原来是河南工信厅办公室文件，关于此前国能 局下发文件，再往下级传达，并被公之网络。 两个时间线，第一，去年开始，国家核查超产行动已经开始，今年继续核查，是继续深入，且国能局下发文件时间是7月10日；第二，河南工 信厅印发继续往下级传达时间是7月21日，具体细节，参考我们整理的文件资料： 焦煤实际产量未超国家规划产能红线 根据煤炭资源网统计的国家统计局数据，主要产煤省份中，多数省份产量均低于公告产能，只有部分省份略超规划产能，超过规划产能10% 红线的省份只有新疆，但原因主要是规划超前而矿山资源丰富，建设产能提前出煤并入产量，况且，新疆是电煤为主，跟焦煤没什么关系。 | 省份 | 2 4年产能 | 2 4年产量 | 产能利用率 | 2 5H1产能 | 2 5H1产量 | 产能利用率 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic energy equipment industry, with a comprehensive layout across various sectors including mining, logistics, oil and gas, and emerging industries such as solar energy and lithium batteries [4][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, SANY International, was established in 2009 and went public in the same year. It has expanded through multiple acquisitions, entering various sectors including mining trucks, port machinery, and new energy equipment [4][20]. - The company has developed four main business segments: mining equipment, logistics equipment, oil and gas equipment, and emerging industries [5][27]. Mining Equipment - The mining equipment segment benefits from stable growth in coal production and increasing fixed asset investments in coal mining, with the market share of the company rising significantly from 2.0% in 2017 to 8.5% in 2024 [6][12]. - The revenue from mining equipment is projected to grow, supported by high global capital expenditures and a trend towards automation in mining operations [6][7]. Logistics Equipment - The logistics equipment segment is experiencing growth due to increasing container throughput in Chinese ports, with the market expected to reach 306 billion yuan by 2027 [8][9]. - The company holds a significant market share in small port machinery, with a 68.3% share in the front lift and 68.6% in the stacker market [9]. Oil and Gas Equipment & Emerging Industries - The oil and gas equipment segment is poised for growth due to high oil prices and increased capital expenditures from major oil companies, with domestic capital expenditure expected to reach 565.2 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. - The emerging industries segment, including solar energy and lithium battery production, is also expanding rapidly, with the company launching 14 new products in the lithium battery sector in 2024 [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with projected revenues of 25.8 billion yuan in 2025, 31.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 37.3 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 21.4%, and 19.2% respectively [12][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 2.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.5 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12][13].