经济增长

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整理:每日全球外汇市场要闻速递(6月19日)
news flash· 2025-06-19 07:03
Group 1: US Monetary Policy - Macquarie now expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, followed by another 25 basis point cut in 2026, revising previous predictions of a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time in June, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials expecting no cuts this year has risen to seven [1] - Powell emphasized uncertainty in the current economic situation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach, and anticipates inflation driven by tariffs to rise in the coming months [1] Group 2: Global Economic Measures - Thailand's Finance Minister plans to propose a 110 billion Thai Baht project to boost the economy next week [2] - The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam indicated a potential adjustment of the credit growth target to 16% to promote economic growth if necessary [2] - Brazil's central bank unexpectedly raised rates by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated a hold at 14.75%, with expectations that the tightening cycle will end [2] Group 3: European and Asian Monetary Policies - ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank will continue to make decisions based on each meeting's circumstances without committing to a clear monetary policy path in advance [2] - South Korea's Ministry of Finance proposed a supplementary government budget plan totaling 30.5 trillion Korean Won, including 20.2 trillion Won in spending and 10.3 trillion Won in tax revenue revisions [2] - The Swedish central bank revised its policy rate forecast for Q3 2025 to an average of 1.99%, down from 2.25%, and for Q4 2025 to 1.92%, also down from 2.25%, indicating the possibility of another rate cut this year [2] Group 4: Russian Economic Outlook - The first deputy CEO of Sberbank expects Russia's GDP to grow by 1% to 2% in 2025, stating that the Ruble is overvalued with a reasonable exchange rate expected between 90 to 95 Rubles per dollar [3] - There is a significant possibility that the benchmark interest rate in Russia will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [3] - For economic recovery, it is suggested that the key interest rate should remain between 12% and 14% [3]
到2030年,房价将是现在4-5倍?真的还是假的?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 05:45
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]
美联储连续第四次决定维持利率不变,货币政策态度倾向于继续等待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 02:35
不过美联储仍然认为未来美国经济仍面临较高的不确定性,关税增加可能会对经济活动产生压力,未来 几个月通胀将显著上升。美联储下调了未来对美国经济增长的预期,上调了未来通胀、失业率的预期。 本次会议声明中,在对劳动力市场的判断上,委员会维持了稳定的判断,但删除了"失业率稳定在低水 平"的措辞,在对通胀的判断上,维持了"仍然偏高"的表述。在经济指标预测中,美联储将2025年的失 业率预期上调至4.5%,将核心PCE物价指数的通胀预期上调至3%。在经济指标预测中,对2025年美国 实际GDP增速的预期中值从1.7%再下调至1.4%,并同步将2026年下调至1.6%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表示,关税政策的影响传导至终端消费需要时间,企业调查显示多数 公司计划将关税成本部分或全部转嫁消费者。关税影响的规模、持续时间高度不确定,因此维持现有的 政策立场是合适的,以便根据后续数据灵活调整。 当地时间6月18日,美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间,这是 美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 本次美联储公布的点阵图显示,2025年降息次数仍为两次,但从分布上看,内部仍有 ...
【鲍威尔罗列不降息的支撑因素】6月19日讯,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,虽然美联储“可以看到劳动力市场或许正在缓慢、持续降温”,但考虑到目前劳动力参与率强劲以及薪资增长良好,这种降温并不值得忧虑。他表示:“尽管经济前景的不确定性已有所下降,但仍处于较高水平。” 只要看到当前这样的劳动力市场状况,并配合较为合理的经济增长和逐步回落的通胀,鲍威尔称他愿意继续等待更多信息,再决定下一步行动。
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:11
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]
英国通胀压力粘性明显 央行暂无空间降息促经济
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 12:48
尽管英国5月份的通胀水平与4月份基本齐平,但从细项来看仍有值得关注的地方。5月份,英国的食品 价格明显上涨,从4月份的3.4%上涨至5月份的4.4%。与此同时,一些英国家居生活的基本生活品,如 巧克力等,也出现了明显上涨,这推动了英国居民的生活负担。"从4月份开始,英国居民需要支付更高 的能源、水、网络等服务价格,同时,新增的商业成本也持续渗透到经济中。这使得英国5月份的总体 通胀率维持在3.4%,令消费者担忧的是,随着食品通胀的持续上升,英国居民每周购物价格再次上 涨,达到自去年2月以来的最高水平。"英国零售商协会(British Retail Consortium)的研究总监Kris Hamer说。 对于英国现阶段的通胀水平和未来几个月的发展趋势,市场机构目前普遍的看法是,英国通胀还将持续 维持在高位一段时间。"今天的通胀数据几乎没有什么意外,因为随着能源价格上限的上调,以及其他 一些公共服务价格的上涨,加上就业成本的抬高,在这些价格因素上涨的传导下,英国通胀率持续处于 央行目标区间之外。由于这些因素影响,预计未来几个月英国通胀率仍将维持高位。"智库英国董事学 会 (Institute of Direct ...
8月降息悬了?英国5月通胀3.4%仍居高位,中东风暴再掀14%油价冲击波
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 07:58
Group 1 - The UK inflation rate remains at its highest level in over a year, with persistent price pressures causing concern [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell from a revised 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May, slightly exceeding economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - The core inflation rate in the services sector decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, yet it remains within a historically high range [1] Group 2 - The UK Office for National Statistics acknowledged a data error regarding vehicle consumption tax, correcting April's inflation rate to 3.4% instead of the previously reported 3.5% [1] - The May price trends exhibited structural differentiation, with falling costs for airfares and fuel being offset by rising food prices, particularly for chocolate and meat, as well as furniture and household goods [1] - Financial markets reacted sensitively to the inflation data, with the British pound rising 0.3% to a session high of 1.3462 USD [2] Group 3 - Market pricing indicates that investors still expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year, although there is disagreement on the timing [2] - The decision-making process faces multiple challenges, including signs of economic slowdown and a cooling labor market, alongside unexpectedly sticky service sector inflation [2] - Despite widespread expectations that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 19, there remains uncertainty about the initiation of a loosening cycle in August [2]
标普:预计阿联酋油气产量将持续上升,非油部门前景强劲,将支撑2025年至2026年相对强劲的经济增长。
news flash· 2025-06-17 20:12
标普:预计阿联酋油气产量将持续上升,非油部门前景强劲,将支撑2025年至2026年相对强劲的经济增 长。 ...