Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank has released an optimistic economic forecast, indicating steady growth and improvements in fiscal conditions, with adjustments made to GDP and inflation predictions for the coming years [1]. Economic Growth - The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 0.6% to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting a robust expansion trend [1]. - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [1]. - The growth predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively [1]. Inflation - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% [1]. - This forecasted inflation rate is still lower than the actual inflation level of 2.9% in 2024, indicating a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1]. Fiscal Conditions - The forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, suggesting improved fiscal discipline and a more stable fiscal situation [1]. Debt Levels - The government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 100.7% by the end of 2025, followed by a decline to 100.4% in 2026 and further down to 100% by the end of 2027 [1]. - This trajectory indicates that the government is making progress in controlling the scale of public debt [1].

Economic Growth and Demand - China's economic growth remains strong, but domestic demand is slightly below expectations, with key production and demand indicators showing stable growth in the first eight months of the year [2] - In August, there was a marginal decline in economic performance, with year-on-year growth rates for industrial value added, service production index, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and export amounts all weakening [2] - The internal driving force for economic growth has not yet solidified, with ongoing transitions between old and new growth drivers, particularly due to household deleveraging impacting economic circulation [2] Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, enhancing consumer credit support and promoting collaboration between financial institutions and businesses [3][4] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial support for improving livelihoods and upgrading consumption, with a projected 6.2% year-on-year growth in service retail sales for 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [5] - The government aims to attract more foreign consumers and reduce restrictions in high-end medical and leisure sectors to increase quality service supply [6] External Trade and Export Dynamics - In August, China's total goods imports and exports grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [7] - The export of electromechanical products saw a significant increase, with a 9.2% year-on-year growth in the first eight months [7] - Despite a decline in export growth rate, the resilience of exports is expected to exceed expectations due to adjustments in export markets, particularly with ASEAN and EU countries compensating for reduced exports to the US [7][8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The economic growth is primarily supported by policy measures and structural highlights, but challenges remain due to weak internal and external demand, low corporate profit expectations, and funding constraints [8] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for economic stabilization, with the effectiveness of policy financial tools, local government projects, and consumption stimulus policies being pivotal for maintaining growth [8]

Economic Growth Data - In August 2025, China's industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.2% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, showing a month-on-month slowdown of 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value rose by 9.3%, maintaining the previous month's level and significantly outpacing the overall industrial added value growth[2] - The production index for information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as finance and leasing services, grew by 12.1%, 9.2%, and 7.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong service sector performance[2] Consumer Trends - Restaurant income increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while retail sales of goods grew by 3.6%, with the former showing a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point and the latter a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to show effects, although the growth rates for related retail categories like home appliances and furniture have begun to slow down[2] Investment Insights - From January to August, infrastructure investment grew by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with all showing a decline compared to the previous month[2] - Private investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to -2.3%, with real estate development private investment dropping by 16.7%, significantly impacting overall private investment growth[2] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum in August 2025 has slowed, but new policy measures are expected to stabilize growth, including the potential introduction of new financial tools and early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026[2] - Risks include the possibility of ineffective growth stabilization policies, unexpected overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[10]

Group 1 - President Trump has called for the SEC to change the requirement for companies to submit quarterly financial reports to biannual submissions, suggesting it could save costs and allow management to focus on operations [1][2] - This proposal has sparked widespread attention, with some investors warning that extending the disclosure period could reduce transparency and increase market volatility, potentially diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. stocks [2] - Supporters of the proposal argue that focusing too much on quarterly earnings can lead to short-term decision-making, and prominent figures like Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett have commented on the need for companies to prioritize long-term growth over quarterly earnings [2] Group 2 - The proposed policy change would require a series of processes through the SEC, with industry insiders estimating that it may not be implemented until after 2026 [3] - In addition to the financial reporting proposal, Trump has been active in influencing the Federal Reserve, attempting to remove a board member who he believes could obstruct his interest in interest rate cuts [4][5] - The Senate recently confirmed Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, who is seen as an ally for Trump's interest in lowering interest rates [4][5] Group 3 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its economic forecasts, predicting a lower growth rate of 1.4% for 2025, an increase in inflation to 3.1%, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% by the end of the year [6] - Analysts express caution regarding the potential market impact of interest rate cuts, suggesting that if perceived as politically driven, it could exacerbate risks in the stock and bond markets [6][7] - Concerns have been raised about the current market conditions, with warnings that the recent enthusiasm for rate cuts may lead to negative consequences for stocks, bonds, and the dollar [7]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Peru's economy is projected to grow by 3.41% year-on-year in July 2025, surpassing market analysts' expectations of 3.0% [1] Economic Performance - Most economic sectors in Peru showed expansion in July, indicating a positive trend in overall economic activity [1] - The mining sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 13.2%, while the fishing industry surged by 34.9%, becoming the main drivers of economic expansion for the month [1] - The construction sector grew by 2.7% year-on-year, and the manufacturing sector saw a modest increase of 1.2% [1] Future Outlook - The Central Bank of Peru has raised its full-year economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.4%, supported by the strong performance of July's economic data [1] - However, the overall economic trajectory for the year will require further validation through subsequent monthly data [1]

Core Points - The Indonesian government announced an economic stimulus package totaling 16.23 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1 billion USD) aimed at boosting consumption, reducing business costs, and expanding employment opportunities [1][2] - The plan, referred to as the "8+4+5" scheme, includes 8 projects to be implemented by 2025, 4 policies extending to 2026, and 5 long-term employment initiatives focusing on education, taxation, and housing [1][2] - The government aims to achieve a full-year economic growth target of 5.2% for 2025, following a year-on-year growth of 4.87% in Q1 and 5.12% in Q2 of this year [1] Short-term Measures - The government will provide paid internships for 20,000 university graduates for six months and expand personal income tax subsidies to include the hotel and restaurant sectors [1][2] - Food assistance will be provided to low-income families, with each household receiving 10 kilograms of rice from October to November [1] Support for Specific Groups - A 50% subsidy on insurance contributions for flexible employment groups (e.g., ride-hailing drivers, couriers) will be offered for six months [2] - The government plans to provide 1,050 subsidized housing units and lower the maximum interest rate on housing loans [2] Long-term Initiatives - The government will continue tax reductions for small and micro enterprises until 2026 and promote five employment initiatives, including cooperative operations in villages, development of fishing villages, and fish pond restoration [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - The fourth quarter may see new incremental measures in macroeconomic policy, focusing on increased fiscal efforts, interest rate cuts by the central bank, and stronger initiatives to stabilize the real estate market, which will help counteract external demand slowdown and curb economic decline, ensuring a target growth rate of around 5.0% for the year [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Performance Indicators - In August, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of positive growth; however, retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 3.4%, with a declining growth rate over three months [2]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year increase of just 0.5% in the first eight months, a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [2]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Despite a challenging global trade environment, China's total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, with exports rising by 6.9%. Machinery and electronics exports were the primary growth drivers, with a notable increase in integrated circuits and automobiles [6][7]. - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with trade value reaching 4.93 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.7% [6]. Group 4: Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer and investment growth rates have been declining since mid-year, with retail sales growth dropping from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, indicating a trend of reduced consumer spending [9][10]. - Real estate development investment has significantly decreased, contributing to a drop in overall investment growth, with private fixed asset investment down by 2.3% in the first eight months [11]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market and improve household balance sheets, it is suggested to expand the scale of special long-term government bonds and increase public investment in infrastructure, which could lead to sustained growth in enterprise orders and employment [12].

Economic Overview - In August, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of positive growth in monthly exports [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a declining growth rate for three consecutive months [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in the first eight months, a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [2] Trade Performance - The total value of imports and exports in the first eight months increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports rising by 6.9% [5] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% and accounting for 60.2% of total exports [5] - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 4.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [5] Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, with restaurant revenue showing negative growth in some months [8] - Fixed asset investment growth fell from 4.2% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the first eight months, with private investment in real estate down by 16.7% [9] - The decline in investment is attributed to reduced real estate development, impacting overall investment growth [9] Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that to stimulate consumption, policies should focus on increasing employment and residents' income [2][4] - There is a call for significant expansion of government public product investment to boost infrastructure and improve overall economic conditions [10] - The government is expected to introduce new macroeconomic measures in the fourth quarter to stabilize economic growth and employment [4]

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from July[1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] GDP and Economic Drivers - The monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate for August is approximately 3.8%, a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from July, significantly below the annual growth target[2][3] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while industrial and service sectors each contributed a drag of 0.1 percentage points[2][3] - The decline in economic growth is characterized by a simultaneous slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports, indicating a broad-based cooling of demand[3] Policy Outlook - The current economic situation presents a critical policy window, necessitating more aggressive macroeconomic responses to prevent further economic decline[4][15] - Key measures include accelerating the expenditure of accumulated fiscal deposits, increasing the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, and enhancing support for infrastructure projects through policy financial tools[4][15] Risks and Challenges - The rising unemployment rate may suppress consumer income expectations and confidence, potentially undermining the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies[3][15] - There is a risk of policy measures being ineffective if consumers choose to save rather than spend any subsidies received, leading to a "policy hollowing out" effect[3][15]