美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，委内瑞拉已探明储量约3030亿桶（占全球17%），居世界首位。 但产能并未完全转化为产量。据全球风险管理公司（Global Risk Management）首席分析师拉斯穆森分 析，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，但该国目前的日均原油产量不足100万桶，占全球 原油总产量的比例不到1%。 "委内瑞拉近年来的产量急剧萎缩。"隆众资讯原油分析师吴燕接受第一财经记者采访时表示，2017年 起，受特朗普任期内制裁举措影响，委内瑞拉的原油产量从此前的超200万桶/日持续下滑，至2020年甚 至跌至30万桶/日附近的低位。 吴燕对记者介绍，拜登政府任期内对委内瑞拉的制裁力度有所放松，但2025年3月以来，美国对委内瑞 拉进行了持续的能源与经济制裁，采取了石油行业封锁、加征关税等措施。2025年三季度前，委内瑞拉 的原油产量及出口量并无明显下滑；进入四季度，美国对委内瑞拉的制裁加码，其原油产量及出口量有 所收紧。 委内瑞拉2019年前曾是美国重质油核心来源之一，2025年进口量已降至日均不足10万桶。 据新华社报道，美军3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 研究员： 高明宇 中信建投期货能化首席分析师 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0023613发布日期：2026年1月4日 1月3日美国对委内瑞拉实施大规模打击，抓获委内总统马杜罗及其夫人，在随后的新闻发布会上特朗普表示美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡，并 已做好了发动第二轮攻击的准备，同时表示美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉开发，美国对委内的石油禁运仍完全有效。 2025年全球东西方阵营博弈激化的视角下地缘热点轮动更加频繁，年末委内问题已成为继俄乌冲突、伊以冲突之后的最热地缘话题，11月Polymarket定价 2026年一季度末前美国和委内瑞拉发生军事冲突的概率便已飙升至70%左右，我们在2026原油年度策略展望《寒尽春生待有时》中特别提示委内瑞拉因制 裁、军事冲突引发的供应减量是年度级别最值得关注的价格上行风险。 2025年9月以来美国以打击贩毒团伙为由持续增强在委内附近加勒比海域的军事部署，12月以来美国财政部密集发起了5轮针对马杜罗政府的金融、武器及石 油制裁，12月16日特朗普宣布对所有进出委内瑞拉的油轮实施全面封锁，并在12月10日 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-05 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-05 所长 早读 委内瑞拉总统被拘至美国 观点分享： 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间 1 月 3 日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉境内发动空袭，美 国总统特朗普随后证实，美方已成功实施大规模打击，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人已被抓 获并带离该国，随后（北京时间 4 日零时），在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会，公布对委内瑞拉 行动细节。美国总统特朗普 3 日称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。如需 要美国将发动第二波更大规模的袭击，并已做好了发动第二波攻击的准备。现在可能没必要 针对委内瑞拉发动第二波袭击。他还表示，美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉。特朗普再次 上台后，以打击"毒品恐怖主义"为由试图推翻马杜罗政府，旨在昭示南美是其势力范围甚 至后花园。之后美国可能扶植亲美政权，掌控或重新布局委内瑞拉能源和关键矿产等资源。 悍然掳走一国总统，强权越来越草莽，世界越来越动荡。 | 所 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | 板块 | | 原油 ★★★★ ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation, particularly the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, signals significant geopolitical risks that can affect global capital markets, including fluctuations in gold, USD, oil, and supply chains [3][4] - The incident highlights the increasing unpredictability of geopolitical events, which investors must learn to navigate as they may become more frequent [3][4] - The internal market reaction to rumors, such as those surrounding Yushutech's IPO process, illustrates how market sentiment can be easily swayed by policy-related news, emphasizing the need for clarity in information [4][5] Group 2 - Yushutech, a leader in humanoid robotics, quickly clarified that it had never applied for a "green channel" for its IPO, indicating that the company's listing process remains on track [4] - The situation serves as a reminder for investors in technology sectors to distinguish between core industry trends and transient rumors that may disrupt market perception [5] - The overall market consensus for 2026 is optimistic towards Chinese assets, particularly in technology, but true opportunities will belong to those who can discern genuine industry narratives from noise [5]

上周末的美国拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件引发全球市场震荡，交易员正评估事件对全球原 油供应及该国能源行业更广泛影响的后果，原油价格出现波动，由于避险需求升温，黄金价格随之上 涨。 布伦特原油开盘一度下跌1.2%，随后收复失地，截至发稿，交易价格为每桶61.12美元，WTI原油价格 为每桶57.61美元。尽管委内瑞拉周末发生剧变，但该欧佩克产油国仅占全球供应的很小一部分，且市 场已在应对不断膨胀的供应过剩。 黄金和白银价格上涨。在美国拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，地缘政治风险上升，投资者转 向寻求贵金属的避险属性。 现货黄金周一早盘交易中一度上涨0.9%，升至每盎司4,370美元上方。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在 推翻马杜罗后，美国计划"掌管"委内瑞拉，这给这个南美国家未来的治理带来了不确定性。国务卿马可 ·鲁比奥称华盛顿将利用石油作为杠杆迫使该国进行进一步变革。 "市场现在不得不重新定价的，不仅是委内瑞拉风险，还有美国的不可预测性和军事投射能力，"贵金属 精炼商MKS Pamp SA的研究主管尼基·希尔斯在一份报告中表示。 "委内瑞拉产量的任何短期中断都很容易通过其他地区的增产来弥补，"凯投 ...

北京时间1月5日早间，贵金属开盘直线拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金突破4390美元／盎司，现货白银也大 涨超3%，突破75美元／盎司。 国际油价则双双低开，美油、布油一度跌超1%，不过，截至发稿，WTI原油止跌反弹。 | 名称 | 最新 | 幅度% | 涨跌 | 成交量 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货铂金 | 2243. 90 | 4.96 106.10 | | 0 2137.80 | 2255.00 | 2126. 00 | | 现货锂金 | 1697.03 | 4.10 66.89 | | 0 1631.97 | 1703. 23 | 1630. 36 | | 现货自银 | 75. 196 | 3.26 2. 377 | | 0 72.755 | 75. 256 | 72. 755 | | 现货黄金 | 4390. 514 | 1.36 58.939 | | | 0 4332.190 4392.360 4332.190 | | | 名称 | | 最新 幅度% 涨跌 | | 成交量 开幕 | | 最低 | | 延时美原 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险出现，原油震荡偏强 | 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：元旦小长假期间，美国三角洲部队突袭委内瑞拉首都并绑架该国总统马杜罗及其夫人， 地缘风险快速升温。同时美国总统特朗普威胁其他南美小国，如果继续对抗美国将受到更强大的制 裁，这或将成为节后油价上涨的重要地缘政治因素。不过原油市场供需偏弱的硬伤，这才是压垮油 价的中长期逻辑。目前全球供应过剩的担忧依然存在，导致资金偏悲观阴霾始终无法消散。短期在 地缘因素占据主导的背景下，预计节后国内外原油期货价格或维持震荡偏强的走势。 < END > 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

来源：上海证券报 2026年，首个地缘政治"黑天鹅"事件发生，国际原油市场迎来新的变数。 据新华社报道，美军3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其强行 带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开宣称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并宣布美国大型石油企业将进入委 内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 油价后市走向如何？多位专家在接受记者采访时分析研判，短期来看，高风险溢价将推动国际油价上 行；但倘若美国掌控了当地石油产业的控制权，便可能进一步加剧当前国际油市供给过剩的局面，这将 对市场构成长期的利空影响。 供给收缩风险提升 朱光明进一步表示，委内瑞拉原油出口暂停且产量受限后，将对原油价格形成提振。 长期利空 作为全球已探明石油储量世界第一的国家、石油输出国组织（欧佩克）创始成员国，委内瑞拉遭遇美国 军事打击一事牵动着各方神经。 据美国能源信息署（EIA）数据，委内瑞拉拥有约3030亿桶原油储量，占全球总储量的五分之一。不 过，产能并未完全转换为产量。全球风险管理公司（Global Risk Management）首席分析师兼研究主管 拉斯穆森称，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已 ...

美国在委内瑞拉采取军事行动并抓捕该国领导人马杜罗后，全球金融市场呈现出显著的分化走势。投资者迅速涌向贵金属寻求避险，推动黄金和 白银价格扭转此前跌势，而原油市场则因全球供应过剩的宏观背景，对这一地缘政治冲击表现出罕见的"淡定"。 1月5日周一，现货黄金价格在早盘上涨近1%，攀升至每盎司4370美元附近，此前一周金价曾下跌4.4%。白银价格大涨1.7%至每盎司74美元附近， 铂金和钯金也同步走升，现货钯金涨超过3%。市场对地缘政治不确定性的本能反应，使得贵金属再次成为资金的避风港。 与此同时，原油市场的反应却并未遵循传统的"战争溢价"逻辑，反而出现下跌。尽管美国总统特朗普证实美军实施了大规模打击，但由于国际能 源署（IEA）预测2026年全球原油供应将出现创纪录的过剩，加之委内瑞拉当前产量在全球占比极低，市场普遍认为这一事件难以改变油市供需 宽松的整体格局，油价并未出现恐慌性飙升。 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对 委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。特朗普表示，美军在行动中使用了空中、陆地 ...