Core Viewpoint - The gold market is at a critical juncture as of September 2025, influenced by global economic dynamics, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and inflation levels, with significant attention on upcoming Federal Reserve data [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Safe-haven attribute: Geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for gold during crises or uncertain times [3] - Stability: Gold remains relatively stable over the long term, not easily devalued by external factors or other currencies [3] - Weakening dollar: The depreciation of the dollar makes gold more attractive for non-US investors, as purchasing gold with other currencies becomes cheaper [3] - Federal Reserve rate cuts: Market expectations for rate cuts have made gold more appealing to investors [3] - Media coverage: Increased discussions and reports on rising gold prices enhance investor interest, leading analysts to predict further price increases [3] Group 2: Recent Trading Activity - Gold trading data shows various positions taken, with notable trades on September 1 to September 15, indicating fluctuations in opening and closing prices, as well as profit and loss outcomes [4] - Specific trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook, with recommendations to buy near support levels and target higher price points [5][6]

来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：黄金迎来美决议，3680上方如何布局？ 目前市场对降息预期存在高度一致，据芝商所FedWatch工具显示，市场预计美联储降息25个基点的概 率高达96%，甚至有4%-5%的概率预期降息50个基点。当然，买预期，卖事实的情况很多见，主要是后 续鲍威尔讲话，若后续几次会议继续降息，黄金自然还会大涨。若是暗示不降息之类，黄金就很容易冲 高回落了。 从技术上来看，黄金整体多头格局未变，但在创出历史新高（亚盘已触及3689美元）后，短期技术指标 存在超买修复需求。金价需要有效突破3700美元整数关口才能开启新的上涨空间，反之若跌破3655- 3665美元支撑区域，则可能引发更深度的回调。 总之，市场核心驱动在于美联储降息预期及地缘政治风险带来的避险需求，这些因素为金价提供了支 撑。但短期而言，由于金价已累积较大涨幅且技术面存在超买迹象，在重大事件（主要是美联储议息会 议）前夕，市场情绪趋于谨慎，金价需进行震荡整固以消化涨幅和等待新的方向性指引。操作上，建议 以回调后逢低做多为主思路，辅以关键阻力位附近的短空机会。严格的风险控制和仓位管理是应对当前 行情的关键。 黄金：激进3678-367 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PP: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PVC: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Short-Term Rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Short-Term Rebound [3] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market do not change the situation of oversupply, and the oil price is trending downward. The cost of LPG has insufficient upward momentum, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The market sentiment for L, PP, PVC, and glass has improved, and attention is paid to the basis repair. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be tight in balance, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and caution is exercised. Methanol and urea are expected to have limited downside, and long positions are considered. The price of natural gas has fallen, and asphalt is under pressure [1][2][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.11%, Brent rising 0.67%, and SC rising 1.66% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to increased supply pressure. The U.S. crude oil consumption peak season has ended, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually decreasing. In the medium to long term, there is a high probability that the price will be pressured to around $60 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The attack on the Russian port by Ukraine led to a short-term rebound in oil prices. OPEC predicts that the global oil demand growth rate will remain at 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break-even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [485 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 15, the PG main contract closed at 4,513 yuan/ton, up 1.51% month-on-month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of upstream crude oil has downward potential, and LPG is under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4450 - 4550] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L main contract closed at 7,209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, but the upward drive is insufficient. This week's production has declined, and it is expected to rebound next week. The demand for agricultural films is increasing, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7150 - 7250] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract closed at 6,939 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is insufficient. The production has increased, but it is expected to decline this week. The downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the raw material demand is gradually increasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased for 12 consecutive weeks. The production is expected to decline next week. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase short positions. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4800 - 4900] [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The PX11 contract closed at 6,712 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply-side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The demand-side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has increased the load in the short term. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is still high [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips for intraday short-term and hold short positions at high levels. PX511 is recommended to focus on the range of [6750 - 6850] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices and the expected new device production. The market has expectations for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to expand the PTA processing fee. Buy on dips for intraday short-term [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The arrival and import volumes are still low. The market has expectations for the consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, which supports the price. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, and the price is oscillating weakly [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to short at high levels. EG01 is recommended to focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] [40]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The methanol main contract closed at 2,379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The methanol device maintenance has increased, and the start-up load has decreased slightly. The overseas device load has declined but is still at a high level, and the import volume is high. The demand has slightly stopped falling, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate. The cost support is slightly stable [42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short but focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 is recommended to focus on the range of [2390 - 2420] [44]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply of urea is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of urea is not high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract in the medium to long term [2]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the natural gas price has fallen. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand, and the winter gas storage has supported the price [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in the text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil has rebounded after OPEC+ increased production, but the supply is in excess, and the price is weak. The supply and demand are generally loose, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The new production line has been ignited, and the supply is under pressure. The terminal demand is still weak, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The demand is mostly for rigid needs, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended, and medium to long-term short positions are considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials, along with more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, make the market expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on September 15 was 831.60 yuan/gram, down 2.62 yuan from the previous week and 2.88 yuan from September 9. The trading volume was 262,249, with a decrease of 39,058 from the previous week. The open interest of the active futures contract was 104,349, a decrease of 20,532. The inventory was 53,226 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 828.03 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 33,778 and an open interest of 212,400. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -1.72, and the basis between the spot and futures was -3.57 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on September 15 was 10,035 yuan/ten grams, down 18 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was -271,791, and the open interest of the active futures contract was 204,407, a decrease of 14,921. The inventory was -3,088 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 9,994 yuan/ten grams, with a trading volume of -260,572 and an open interest of 3,477,766. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -143, and the basis between the spot and futures was 1 [1] - **International Gold**: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 3,719.50 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 184,826 and an open interest of 385,713. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces). The price of London gold spot was 3,651.10 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 974.80 tons, and the holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 2.93 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -3.40, and the basis between the spot and futures was -45.25 [1] - **International Silver**: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 42.68 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 46,674 and an open interest of 133,690. The price of London silver spot was 42.26 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of the US iShare - Silver ETF were 15,069.60 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -0.42, and the basis between the spot and futures was -0.42 [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.02, the ratio of Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 82.85, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 86.24, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 88.22 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 475.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 0.59 US dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 US dollars/barrel. Shanghai copper futures were 79,650 yuan/ton, LME spot copper was 10,189 US dollars/ton. Shanghai rebar was 3,127 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 796 yuan/ton. The US dollar index was 97.7357, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1019, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.3327. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 also had corresponding price changes [1] Important Information - The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend the Fed meeting on September 16 - 17 [1] - The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel said that Trump's tariff policy would reduce the US budget deficit by 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance levels around 3,650 - 3,750/3,840 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 43 - 46 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 yuan/ten grams [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose on Monday, driven by positive factors such as US-China trade talks and gains in some tech stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, the S&P 500 surpassed 6600 points for the first time, closing up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.94% [1] Group 2: Alphabet Inc. (Google's Parent Company) - Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, driven by investor optimism regarding its growth potential in AI products [2][4] - Alphabet's Class A shares rose nearly 4.5% compared to the previous trading day, contributing to its historic market cap milestone [4] Group 3: Tesla Inc. - CEO Elon Musk purchased approximately 2.57 million shares of Tesla, valued at around $1 billion, marking his first significant buyback in recent years [5][7] - Following this news, Tesla's stock price rose over 6% during the day, closing with a gain of about 3.6%, and its market capitalization exceeded $1.3 trillion [8] Group 4: European Stock Market - European stock indices showed mixed results, with investors focusing on US-China trade talks and upcoming central bank interest rate decisions, leading to cautious trading sentiment [10] - The UK FTSE 100 index slightly fell by 0.07%, while the French CAC40 index rose by 0.92% and the German DAX index increased by 0.21% [10] Group 5: Oil Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight increase due to concerns over geopolitical risks potentially disrupting global oil supply [11] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for October settled at $63.30 per barrel, up 0.97%, while November Brent crude futures closed at $67.44 per barrel, up 0.67% [11] Group 6: Gold Prices - International gold prices surpassed $3,700 per ounce, reaching a new all-time high, supported by a weaker dollar, declining US Treasury yields, and heightened geopolitical tensions [12][14] - The December gold futures price closed at $3,719 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.88% [14]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 市场对美联储 9 月份重启降息进程已经预期得比较充分，在没有新增避险需 求的情况下金银价格维持高位盘整，以等待美联储经济通胀利率展望提供更多的 指引，伦敦黄金近五个交易日大致在 3610 至 3660 美元/盎司的区间内运行，中国 8 月金融数据良好一度推动工业属性更强的白银上探 42.5 美元/盎司。4 月下旬至 8 月份金价横盘震荡消化高估值压力，但美联储降息东风助推金价于 9 月初突破 阻力而开启新一轮上涨趋势，本轮涨势或延续至 2026 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on gold, copper, and cobalt markets, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical risks [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market - Loose monetary policy has led to a weaker dollar, driving up the prices of non-ferrous metals, with gold nearing a breakout of previous highs [1][2]. - Central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, particularly from Israel, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Investment opportunities exist in leading companies like Shandong Gold, which have returned to operational ranges after adjustments, benefiting from rising gold prices [1][4]. - Other undervalued companies such as Excellence Group and China National Gold are positioned at valuation bottoms with significant profit growth potential [1][4]. - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend, with prices projected to exceed $4,000 per ounce [10][12]. Copper Market - The copper market is currently in a bull phase, with prices fluctuating around $10,000 [1][5]. - Stock markets are reflecting future expectations, indicating potential upward valuation for copper prices and quality copper mining companies [5]. - A price of $12,000 is anticipated to stimulate the resumption of suspended copper mines and new developments, with quality copper mining company valuations potentially rising to 20 times [5]. - Jiangxi Copper is recommended due to its low valuation in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, along with its alpha potential [5][16]. Cobalt Market - The cobalt market faces policy negotiations, particularly regarding quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may be delayed [1][6][7]. - A significant reduction in imports of cobalt intermediate raw materials has led to a supply chain inventory that can only support operations for about three months [7]. - If quota policies are delayed, domestic cobalt inventories may deplete, driving cobalt prices up [7]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt, Tianyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from rising prices [1][7][8]. Lithium Market - The price of lithium carbonate is under scrutiny, with potential for a rebound if it has reached a bottom [9][11]. - Companies like Dongfang Resources and Zhongmin Resources are highlighted for their stable business valuations and potential for performance improvement without relying heavily on lithium price increases [9][11]. Silver and Rare Earth Markets - Silver stocks may outperform gold during the period between the onset of rate cuts and actual economic recovery, with companies like Xiyu Xishengda Resources and Hunan Silver being noteworthy [14]. - The rare earth magnet sector is expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [15]. Additional Insights - The macroeconomic backdrop indicates a shift towards a more aggressive monetary easing stance, with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The performance of gold stocks is anticipated to improve due to cost pressures easing and sustained gold price increases, with valuations currently around 20 times but expected to drop to just over 10 times in the coming years [12]. - The recovery of mica mines is contingent on regulatory approvals, which will impact the lithium price cycle and overall market dynamics [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the non-ferrous metals industry.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment, the summer consumption peak season ends, US inventories accumulate, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthens. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating performance [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an overall increase in global crude oil production. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,553 million barrels per day, up 2.34 million barrels per day from 2024. In August, OPEC countries' crude oil production increased compared to July according to different reports [3] - **Demand (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all have neutral to slightly positive views on demand. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid demand to be 10,381 million barrels per day, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2024 [3] - **Inventory (Short term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending September 5, with various refined oil inventories also showing different changes [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - long term)**: OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October 2025, with a daily increase of about 137,000 barrels. Some OPEC+ countries need to compensate for excess production [3] - **Geopolitics (Short term)**: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, and Trump's statement about possible new tariffs on Asian and Indian buyers of Russian oil add geopolitical premium to oil prices [3] - **Macro - finance (Short term)**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut rising from 8% to 11.9% and a 25 - basis - point cut at 88.1% [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show an oscillating performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances led to a halt in the decline and an oscillating trend of international oil prices. As of September 12, WTI crude oil rose by $0.63 per barrel (+1.02%), Brent crude oil rose by $1.21 per barrel (+1.84%), and SC crude oil fell by 6.7 yuan per barrel (-1.39%) [8] - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [11] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [27] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In August, OPEC production increased, non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day. However, the US production showed a decline in exports and an increase in domestic production [45][55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased by 393,900 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels, Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased significantly, and refinery operating rates fluctuated slightly. In China, refinery capacity utilization rebounded slightly [107][116] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [138] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [147]