国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

在特朗普政府掀起关税战下，美国普通民众的购物正迎来"涨价潮"，连曾经实惠的网购也变得更昂贵了。 继美国亚马逊网站近千种商品涨价后，另外两家来自中国的跨境电商平台SHEIN、拼多多旗下TEMU也已上调了部分在美商品售价。 在4月16日，华尔街见闻就注意到，TEMU、SHEIN均向美国用户发出了涨价通知，称由于最近全球贸易规则和关税的变化，运营成本有所增加，公司将从4月 25日起进行价格调整。 如今4月25日期限一过，调价政策落地，不少美国网友在社交媒体上感叹， 一夜之间购物车里的东西都变贵了。 有人发现，在SHEIN平台上一套4月24日标价为4.39美元的泳装，25日已经涨价至8.39美元，提价幅度达到91%。而在TEMU上列出的两把露台椅，24日标价 为61.72美元，到25日标价已提升至70.17美元。 不过，据华尔街见闻了解，SHEIN、TEMU平台上商品价格上涨还不是普遍现象，或许价格上涨将是一个逐步推进的过程。 除了TEMU、SHEIN外，国际电商巨头亚马逊上的卖家，早就开始了涨价的动作。 根据SmartScout数据，自4月9日以来，美国亚马逊网站上近1000种商品的价格出现明显上涨，涵盖服装、家居 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].

【锌】五一假期临近，市场备货意愿一般。基本面来看，秘鲁一大型铜矿出现异动，叠加国内社库持续 录减，情绪转好与库存低位暂支撑锌价；但传统旺季临近尾声，镀锌下游订单低于往年同期水平，需求 疲软令锌价承压。整体看下周锌价或延续震荡区间，关注2.24-2.32万。 【锡】本周现货锡价震荡上行，周涨幅2.33%。宏观面来看，周初市场对美联储独立性存疑，美元承压 低位运行，叠加特朗普对华关税态度缓和，市场紧张情绪有所缓解，带动锡价重心上移。基本面来看， 刚果（金）Bisie锡矿虽已恢复运营，但需要一定时间进行转化，叠加佤邦虽于周三开展曼相矿山复工 复产座谈会，但具体复产时间不定，短期供紧格局难改，支撑锡价。需求端看，近期锡价小幅上涨，但 镀锡板及锡化工产品市场需求平稳。关注佤邦复产情况以及宏观面消息。预计下周锡价延续震荡走势， 关注锡价25.5-27万区间。 【镍】本周内镍铁主流报价在975-1000元/镍点之间，市场成交价格持续走低。镍板现货方面，持货商 积极出货，下游用家刚需采购，实际成交一般。精炼镍两市库存压力犹存，不锈钢成品需求尚未见大幅 好转，印尼镍产品增税新政下落地，下周现货镍价或有小幅走高，建议关注12.5 ...

▍ 2 0 2 5Q1银行股占主动型基金重仓股比例为3 . 0 3%，较2 0 2 4Q4回落0 . 3 7pc t。 2 0 2 5年一季度，市场风格偏向成长，银行板块持仓略有回落。4月开始，美国关税政策的不确定性和业绩期扰动驱使市场避险 情绪上升，在此背景下，银行板块相对收益受市场风格影响较大，且整体仍保持较好的绝对收益逻辑。 ▍ 股份行和农商行持仓比例提升，国有行和城商行持仓比例回落。 文 ｜ 肖斐斐 林楠 彭博 李鑫 胡家俊 2 0 2 5年一季度，市场投资风格更趋多元，银行股占主动型基金重仓股比例较上季度末的阶段性高位小幅回落0 . 3 7 p c t。展望后 续，短期看，中美贸易摩擦对市场预期仍有影响，在此背景下低波板块具有配置价值；中期看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种 假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对价值显著，建议积极增配。 截至2 0 2 5年一季度末，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行占主动型基金重仓股比重分别0 . 6 5%/ 0 . 9 2%/ 1 . 2 5%/ 0 . 2 1%，较 2 0 2 4年四季度末分别- 0 . 3 7 / +0 . 1 ...

4月以来，全球见证了美国发起的史上最疯狂的关税战。这场由特朗普发起的全球"无差别攻击"，不仅 造成全球股市暴跌、金融秩序崩溃，也给包括中国储能电池在内的锂电行业带来巨大伤害。 4月15日，关税风暴再起，白宫公布对中国商品最高加征关税达245%。据《纽约时报》报道，锂电关税 税率，史无前例地达到173%。仅仅两个半月的时间，储能电池关税税率就从10.9%飙升至173%，翻了 近16倍。 一、关税两个半月翻16倍 美国对中国锂电池的关税究竟是如何加到173%的？这要追溯到7年前，锂电池行业从那天起便历经多轮 关税进逼。 | | 美国对中国动力及储能电池关税加征历程(截至2025年4月15日) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 制图/华夏能源网 | | | 时间 | 动力电池 | 储能电池 | | 基础关税 | 3. 4% | 3. 4% | | 2018年 | 301关税增加7.5%(共10.9%) | 301关税增加7.5%(共10.9%) | | 2024年9月 | 301关税增至25%(共28.4%) | 1 | | 2025年2月 | 对中国商品额外关税增加10% (共38.4%) ...

Group 1 - China has recently refused to accept Boeing aircraft, creating an opportunity for India to take over the orders that China has paused [2][3] - Indian Airlines, controlled by Tata Group, is interested in acquiring the Boeing aircraft to enhance its operational capacity and service levels, aiming to expand its market presence [2][3] - The ongoing US-China trade war may motivate India to leverage the acquisition of Boeing aircraft as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations with the US [3] Group 2 - India's decision to impose a 12% protective tariff on certain steel products is seen as a direct move against China, which has become India's second-largest source of steel imports [5] - Despite being the second-largest crude steel producer globally, India has a low capacity utilization rate and has been a net importer of finished steel, heavily relying on Chinese supplies [5] - The imposition of tariffs may not significantly impact Indian manufacturers, as they still depend on Chinese products due to technological and management shortcomings in their steel industry [5][6] Group 3 - China's support in building advanced steel production facilities in India contrasts sharply with India's recent tariff actions, highlighting a potential betrayal of cooperation [6] - China's Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to any country sacrificing Chinese interests for tariff agreements with the US, indicating potential retaliatory measures [6]

观察者网消息，美国财政部长贝森特22日被爆向投资者承认，眼下中美关税对峙僵局"难以为继"，并称预 计"短时间内"将出现缓和态势后，"先眨眼"的美国总统特朗普再度释放"降温"信号。 据美联社23日报道，当地时间周二（22日），特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示，在关税谈判期间他不会对 中国采取 "强硬手段"，并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议，"大幅下调"对中国进口商品加 征的145%巨额关税。 在被问到是否会对中国采取"强硬态度"时，特朗普否认说："不，我不会说'我要对中方强硬'。我们会以非 常友好的态度对待他们，他们也会友好相待，然后我们拭目以待会发生什么。" 继续凭空造牌，他在回答另一个问题时又补充称，如果未与中国达成贸易协议，"我们只需要设定（关 税）数字就行"。 《今日美国》报道称，尽管中美之间的正式贸易谈判尚未启动，但特朗普仍摆出一副信誓旦旦的模 样，"这份协议对于每个人而言都是公平的。而且我认为这个（谈判）过程很快会完成。" 在后续提问中，特朗普也重申了不想继续提高对华关税的态度。在谈到高达145%的对华关税时，他声称， 针对中国进口商品的关税税率不会维持在当前水平，"145%的税率非常高 ...

"很多东西，我认为其他国家是没有办法替代的。"斯贝乐电器（浙江）股份有限公司CEO王鑫对第一财 经记者表示。 斯贝乐总部位于浙江省台州市，主要产品包括商用冰淇淋机，冰沙机，奶茶机，泡茶机，制冰机等商用 茶饮设备等，美国是其海外第一大市场。美国政府滥施关税，给中国制造业带来困扰，过高的关税影响 出口，但王鑫认为中国企业的竞争力不会消失。 台州地理环境"七山一水二分田"，并没有发展制造业的优质条件，但这里有不少企业已经走向全球。台 州企业家极能适应和改造环境，如果土地不够，他们填海造地，并在上面建造起厂房；如果市场不够 大，他们愿意飞到欧洲小国去开拓边缘市场。近期，第一财经采访了部分台州企业，了解他们如何应对 这场骤然而来的关税战。 "不会停，继续生产" 王鑫是斯贝乐的二代接班人。 斯贝乐的产品主打海外市场，美国又是重中之重。斯贝乐在美国的四个城市新泽西、亚特兰大、休斯 敦、洛杉矶都租用了仓储设施，基本上做到辐射全美市场。 据王鑫介绍，斯贝乐目前海外收入占比约70%，海外收入中美国占比60%，欧洲占比25%。美国毫无合 理性的关税政策之后，斯贝乐向美国出口的产品被加征了高达170%的关税。 在关税落地之前，斯贝乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "America First Investment Policy" memorandum continues the Trump administration's stance on strengthening foreign investment reviews, focusing on a "differentiated" review mechanism that relaxes investment restrictions from allies while strictly controlling investments from "foreign adversaries" [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Policy Framework - The memorandum aims to promote the development of high-tech industries like AI domestically while welcoming investments from allies and partners, provided they align with U.S. interests and benefit the American people [5]. - Investments from allied countries will have a "fast-track" process, facilitating easier access to U.S. technology sectors, but must avoid collaboration with foreign adversaries [5]. Regulatory Measures - The Trump administration has previously issued several executive orders regarding foreign investment restrictions, including Executive Order 13959 and its revision 14032, as well as Biden's 14032 and the recent 14105 [4]. - The policy framework includes various entity lists for investment control, such as NS-CMIC List, SDN List, MEU List, and Entity List, with additional attention to CMC List and UFLPA Entity List [4]. Entity Lists and Their Implications - The NS-CMIC List targets U.S. persons' investments in Chinese military-related companies, with 68 entities listed as of January 2025, primarily in capital goods and technology hardware sectors [9]. - The SDN List includes entities that face asset freezes and transaction bans, with over 600 Chinese entities listed, mainly related to sanctions against Russia and Iran [12][13]. - The Entity List restricts access to sensitive technologies for over 900 Chinese entities, particularly in software, hardware, and semiconductor sectors [17]. - The MEU List is used to control items for military purposes, with 71 Chinese entities listed as of January 2025 [18]. - The CMC List, established by the Department of Defense, includes 134 Chinese entities, primarily in capital goods and technology sectors, with potential future restrictions [21]. - The UFLPA Entity List focuses on products linked to forced labor allegations, with 144 Chinese entities listed, affecting various industries [23]. Future Considerations - The U.S. government may further develop new tools to limit investments in Chinese companies, although successful negotiations between the U.S. and China could render the memorandum less impactful [27].