Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]

点击小程序查看报告原文 4月至今，特朗普的关税政策经历了一系列"戏剧性"变化， 对华"对等关税"从4月2日宣布加征的34%，逐步加码至"非理性"的125%，再降至中美会谈后甚 至比预期更低的10%（《 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 》）。市场也是如此，从关税宣布后的大跌到目前已经完全修复失地，就好像关税带来的影响"从没 发生过一样"。 图表：美国对中国本轮关税由145%降至30%，另外24%暂缓90天执行 资料来源：PIIE，中金公司研究部 关税政策如同"儿戏"般的变化，固然有特朗普自身执政风格的鲜明烙印，但也有不得不向现实低头的约束，因为如此高的关税对中美而言都是无法长期承 受的。 因此，关税从一个几乎等于"贸易禁运"的非理性水平降至一个"可贸易可谈判"的水平，虽然在时点和幅度上是无法预知的偶然，但几乎也是现实 的必然， 否则美国通胀、经济和金融市场都会面临很大压力，4月中下旬"股债汇三杀"就是市场的预演（《 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ 》）。 图表："对等关税"以来，美国4月中下旬出现股债汇"三杀" 资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 往前看，关税政策进展大概率依然存在很大变数，不排除还会反复 ...

Group 1 - The first issuance of a 50-year special government bond in 2023 had a weighted average winning rate of 2.1%, which is higher than the yield of similar maturity bonds in the interbank market and up by approximately 19 basis points from the low point in February [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance issued a total of 390 billion yuan in government bonds on May 23, with a cumulative issuance of 4.69 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, exceeding the same period last year by over 1 trillion yuan [2][7] - The issuance of the 50-year special government bond was met with weak demand, as indicated by the higher winning rate compared to the secondary market, suggesting a lack of strong market sentiment [3][5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the bidding results, long-term bond yields in the secondary market rose significantly, with the 24 special government bond yield increasing to 2.07% before settling at 2.055% [4] - The market experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern due to supply shocks from government bonds, with the 10-year bond weighted rate at 1.67% aligning with expectations, while the 50-year bond's rate was 7 basis points higher than the secondary market [5][8] - The central bank's actions, including a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, indicate a focus on maintaining liquidity in the face of increased government bond supply [8][9] Group 3 - The issuance of government bonds has surged this year, with a total of 10.56 trillion yuan in interest rate bonds issued in the first four months, marking an increase of 3.31 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, alongside 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the market's focus will shift to the balance of supply and demand, with the central bank's stance on monetary policy being crucial for maintaining a stable funding environment [6][8]

今天我就带你一步步拆解： 川普到底在打什么算盘？全球市场为何震荡？对中国投资者又有哪些实用启示？ 第一件，川普向欧盟发 出关税威胁。 在川普的眼里，美国就是被欧洲揩了油。 他认为，美国军事上协防欧洲、 美国在欧洲多个国家驻军，总兵力接近9万人，大大节省了欧洲的军费 开支。贸易上还被占便宜， 现在欧盟一年对美贸易逆差超过2.5亿美元，简直无法接受，必须立即改 变。 他说，建议从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无须缴纳 关税。 这两天，川普连放两颗"重磅炸弹"： 一是威胁对欧盟商品加征50%关税，二是要对"没在美国生产的手 机"征税25%，苹果、三星首当其冲。 消息一出，欧洲股市跳水，美元大跌，美债收益率飙升，苹果股价单日重挫3%。资本市场的情绪，一 下子就被点燃了。 但这背后，不只是川普的"嘴炮"或竞选造势，而是美欧博弈、中美谈判、美债压力的多重共振。 话音刚落，欧洲股市和欧元对美汇率就出现了大跳水。 为什么川普突然威胁欧盟呢？ 早在5月中旬，美欧已就数字贸易、投资准入、关税结构等领域交换过谈判草案，但欧盟近期态度趋 硬，拒绝接受美式"10%底线协议"。 有欧盟官员表示："10% ...

Group 1 - The core issue of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is a complex interplay between the interests of the financial sector and the real economy in the U.S. [1] - The pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates highlights the ongoing conflict between different interest groups within the U.S. [1] - The recent Chicago Economic Club speech by Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would not take emergency measures in response to market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of internal economic dynamics [1] Group 2 - Following high-level U.S.-China trade talks, the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has cooled, with a majority of Americans anticipating price increases due to tariffs [2] - The inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, making an immediate rate cut unlikely, leading Citibank to push back its rate cut forecast from June to July [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in December, indicating a shift from a protective stance to a normalization approach due to stable economic growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is driven by the desire to devalue the dollar and improve manufacturing competitiveness [3] - The significant U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, adds urgency to the government's push for lower interest rates to facilitate the refinancing of high-interest debt [3] - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve's short-term interests and the government's strategic goals suggests that the debate over interest rate cuts will continue, making predictions about future rate changes premature [3]

特朗普频频施压库克：苹果必须本土制造！ 苹果面临的挑战远比表面看起来更加复杂。 苹果美股盘前跳水，现跌近4%，特朗普威胁对苹果征税。 目前，苹果在美国完全没有智能手机生产线。虽然苹果此前承诺在美国雇用更多工人，并承诺在未来四 年内在美国投资数十亿美元，但要将整个iPhone生产线迁移到美国，无论从技术、成本还是时间角度都 面临巨大挑战。 23日周五，据媒体报道，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，他早就告诉苹果CEO蒂姆·库克希望他在"美国 销售的iPhone将在美国制造和生产"，而不是印度或其他地方。 "如果不是这样，苹果必须向美国支付至少25%的关税。" 据参考消息网5月16日报道，特朗普15日在卡塔尔首都多哈与企业高管会面时说： "昨天我对库克有点不满。我对他说，蒂姆你是我的朋友，我对你非常好，你带着5000亿美元来这里。 但现在我听说你在印度各地建厂，我不希望你在印度建厂。因为印度是世界上关税最高的国家之一。" 15日，特朗普还曾透露他已与库克进行了交谈，并声称，作为这次谈话的结果，苹果将"增加他们在美 国的生产"。 特朗普对Tim Cook这一明显带有胁迫性质的言论已经在华尔街引起警觉。Hun ...

以下文章来源于熊园观察 ，作者熊园、刘新宇 熊园观察 . 记录【国盛证券.熊园团队】对宏观经济的思考。 文/国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 熊园 4月初特朗普宣布对等关税后，部分观点认为海外国家可以采取抛售美债 的 方式来反制，虽然 近期关税有 所缓和， 但尚不 能 排除后 续是否出 现 反 复。由于目前美债规模十分庞大，市场担忧一旦海外国家抛售美债，可能 导致美债市场出现系统性风险。本文从美债期限结构与投资者结构、到期 分布与偿还压力、交易规模与外国减持复盘这3大维度，详细分析了美债 市场的运行状况，并对潜在抛售风险做出评估。 美债期限结构与投资者结构 期限结构： 美国国债期限可大致划分为短期（1年以内，也称T-Bills）、中期（1-10年，也称T-Notes）、长期（10年以上，也称T- Bonds）。存量角度看，截至2025年3月，短期国债占比21.5%，中期国债占比51.8%，长期国债占比17.2%，此外还包括TIPS债券和浮动 利率票据，规模较小。增量角度看，2023年以来，美债发行中短期国债占比基本保持80%以上。通常而言，美国政府为降低负债成本， 往往会在低利率时发行更多中长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in reserves is exerting upward pressure on market interest rates [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve's Perli indicates that the decrease in reserves is impacting market dynamics [1]

金属期权 2025-05-22 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属盘整震荡偏上，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系大幅反弹回暖后逐 渐回落，适合构建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属高位回落转弱止跌反弹大幅上扬，构建做空波动率策略和现货 避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 77,550 | -240 | -0.31 | 4.88 | ...