2026.02.03 本文字数：1864，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周一，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克在出席活动时表示，沃什若执掌美联储将面临一项 "艰巨任务"，尤其是如果他想要说服政策制定委员会的成员在货币政策决策上与自己保持一致，这项挑 战会更为突出。 如何化解分歧 美联储上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决定将美联储基准利率维持在当前3.50%至3.75%的区间，并 释放出暂不急于降息的信号。 目前美联储内部暗流涌动，坚定支持降息的只有美联储理事沃勒、米兰和鲍曼，三人均为特朗普提名， 而决定利率政策的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中剩余的4位理事（包括现任美联储主席鲍威尔）和5 位地方联储主席均对进一步宽松持谨慎态度，其中不乏堪萨斯联储主席施密德、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨 勒姆这样的鹰派委员。 博斯蒂克表示，自己认为美联储今年完全不应降息，美联储多位同僚也持相同观点。而特朗普此前称， 提名沃什的部分原因，是沃什认同自己应当降低借贷成本的主张。 亚特兰大联储主席当天在出席一场活动中表示："如果想要推行既定的政策，或是让货币政策朝着自己 期望的方向走，就必须说服委员会成员认同并支 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什担任下一届美联储主席，鉴于沃什在过去十五 年持续批判美联储量化宽松政策推高美国通胀压力并主张货币政策要回归平抑价 格波动的本源，市场担忧沃什上台后美联储货币政策框架将转向以偏紧货币流动 性抑制通货膨胀，叠加美联储暂停降息推高美元汇率和美伊谈判削弱地缘政治风 险，隔夜贵金属板块全线大幅调整，2 月 1 日贵金属板块继续惯性下滑，伦敦黄 金最低跌至 4402 美元/盎司而伦敦白银最大跌幅达到 41.4%。我们判断贵金属中 ...

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining liquidity stability ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect the liquidity environment to remain stable before the holiday, despite potential short-term disruptions due to cash withdrawals and government bond issuances [1] Group 2 - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over 1000 USD per ounce from the January 29 high, leading to increased market volatility [2] - Industry experts advise caution against bottom-fishing in gold investments, suggesting that gold ETFs may be more stable than mining stocks in the current environment [2] - The volatility in gold prices highlights the uncertainty in the investment market, with potential risks stemming from global economic slowdown and tightening monetary policies [2] Group 3 - The demand for physical gold has decreased as prices fell, leading to increased inventory levels at some banks, which previously faced shortages [3] - Analysts predict a period of wide fluctuations in gold prices, but expect a return to upward trends later in the year, supported by long-term demand from global central banks [3] Group 4 - Nine government departments have launched a special Spring Festival activity plan to stimulate consumption, encouraging financial institutions to collaborate with key merchants on promotional activities [4] - The initiative aims to enhance consumer spending through various incentives, including cash rebates and digital currency promotions, to boost economic growth [4] Group 5 - The insurance industry reported a premium income of 61,194 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.43%, indicating robust development amid economic recovery [5] - The growth in both property and life insurance premiums suggests an increasing consumer awareness of risk management and wealth preservation [5]

美联储官员上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果决定维持基准利率在3.50%至3.75%区间不变，并释放出短 期内不急于降息的信号。 特朗普此前表示，选择沃什部分原因在于其认同总统关于"借贷成本应更低"的观点。现任主席鲍威尔因 降息步伐不及特朗普预期，长期处于总统批评之下，其任期将于5月中旬结束。 市场方面，博斯蒂克的讲话强化了利率维持高位的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，3月18日FOMC会议 降息25个基点的概率已从前一日的13.4%下降至10.9%。 分析认为，若沃什接任，美联储未来政策走向仍将取决于其能否在内部形成共识。在通胀尚存不确定 性、经济表现依旧稳健的情况下，美联储短期内或将继续保持观望立场。 智通财经APP获悉，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一表示，美国总统特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席人 选凯文·沃什若最终获国会确认，将面临"艰巨任务"，尤其是在推动货币政策方向时，需要说服联邦公 开市场委员会(FOMC)其他成员支持其立场。 博斯蒂克在亚特兰大扶轮社活动上指出，美联储的政策制定并非主席一人即可决定，"如果你希望政策 朝着你想要的方向推进，就必须让其他委员愿意与你同行，而这需要建立关系、赢得信任 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, influenced by the new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies and the decline in tech stocks [1] - The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026 [1] - The decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Hawkish macroeconomic sentiments are pressuring copper prices, with expectations of a strong dollar and market adjustments [2] - Despite the pressure, supply disruptions and a potential widening copper mine gap are expected to provide price support [2] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tightening liquidity and a decrease in processing activity, with a 1.5% drop in comprehensive aluminum processing activity to 59.4% [2] Group 3: Tin and Energy Metals - Tin prices have significantly corrected due to macroeconomic sentiment shifts and speculative selling, with supply concerns easing as production resumes in Myanmar [2] - Lithium inventories are declining, indicating strong demand, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [3] - The expectation of a reduction in battery export tax may lead to preemptive demand in the lithium market [3] Group 4: Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides are rising due to tight supply and pre-holiday stocking demands [4] - Tungsten prices are increasing sharply due to regulatory crackdowns on illegal mining and strong pre-holiday restocking [4] - The supply constraints and high costs are expected to keep tungsten prices elevated despite potential seasonal transaction volume reductions [4] Group 5: Uranium - The rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development are expected to maintain a persistent uranium supply-demand gap, with prices likely to rise [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Direction - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which marks a shift in policy focus towards economic construction, consumption, and technological development [1][6][17] - Key adjustments in the "15th Five-Year Plan" include a renewed emphasis on balancing economic growth with safety, promoting urban-rural integration, and reforming the fiscal and tax system [1][6][8] - China's economic growth rate has decreased to around 5%, but it remains competitive compared to emerging markets like Vietnam and India, highlighting the need for a focus on maintaining reasonable growth [1][7] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Changes - Significant changes in monetary policy now include promoting stable economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations, moving away from a sole focus on inflation [2][10] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, with an emphasis on necessary debt levels and total expenditure [2][10] - The policy aims to optimize existing demand through measures like "trade-in" programs and removing unreasonable restrictions to stimulate consumption [2][11] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with a cooling job market and a decline in the dollar's reserve status, while the European economy faces multiple challenges, including energy crises [4][15] - Despite a 35% drop in real estate prices over five years, China's economy has shown resilience, supported by advancements in semiconductor equipment, digital economy, and artificial intelligence [4][12] - China's trade surplus is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, indicating a balanced trade relationship with the U.S. despite ongoing trade tensions [12][16] Group 4: Consumer and Investment Dynamics - The core policy direction for 2026 is to boost consumption, with a significant gap between service consumption in China (18% of GDP) compared to the U.S. (46%), primarily due to urban-rural disparities [4][17] - Investment pressures are evident, with fixed asset investment declining by 12%, although this figure may not accurately reflect the actual investment situation [11][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance consumer spending through urban-rural integration and regulatory relaxation, such as in the automotive and yacht sectors [17]

来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上今日财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及政策更 新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 特朗普提名沃什掌舵美联储，鲍威尔去留成谜 美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，本想借此让鲍威尔离任，但部分观察人士认为这可能 强化鲍威尔留任意愿。鲍威尔任期将在5月结束，他在美联储理事会任职资格可持续至2028年。当前特 朗普向美联储施压降息，且对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，鲍威尔或为维护美联储独立性选择留任，但也有分 析师认为他会离任。详情>> 金价高位巨震，机构提示投资风险与机遇 1月30日，国际黄金价格创下40年来最大单日跌幅，白银也大幅下挫。专家认为，这是情绪与基本面共 同作用的结果，是对前期过热情绪的修正。商家面临黄金原料供应难问题，投资者也陷入纠结。不过， 机构仍看好黄金长期机会，如招行预计金价调整后有望上行，高盛也上调了黄金价格预测。但当前金价 波动大，投资者需谨慎决策。详情>> 十大机构看后市，A股有望春节前后企稳上行 资金"踩踏"致国际 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月2日，ATFX：上周五抛售潮席卷了金属市场，现货黄金创1983年以来最大单日跌幅，单日振幅近770 美元，现货白银一度重挫35%至73美元，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅。伦敦铜价下跌3.4%，从周四创 下的历史高位回落。周一亚市早段，黄金白银的跌势还在扩大，黄金价格一度下跌6.3%。白银价格剧 烈波动，早盘一度上涨3.2%，随后回落至每盎司75美元左右。不过，即使在周五出现回调之后，黄金 当月仍上涨了13%，白银当月上涨了19%。 ▲ATFX图 1月份，由于投资者对地缘政治动荡、货币贬值以及美联储独立性的担忧加剧，纷纷涌入黄金和白银市 场，这波涨势急剧加速。但是如此前所说，贵金属这波涨势已经过急过快，所以大幅调整只需要一个触 发事件。而上周五美国总统特朗普对于下一届美联储主席的提名成为了贵金属调整的点燃剂。 交易员认为沃什是最终候选人中最强硬的抗通胀者，这提高了市场对货币政策的预期，即沃什的政策将 支撑美元并削弱以美元计价的黄金价格。即使未来降息，节奏也会更慢、幅度更受管控，且缩表意味着 从市场回收美元流动性。这强化了美元的吸引力，直接压制了不生息的黄金白银。机构指出，由于过去 ...

如果用一个词来形容2026年1月的黄金市场，那不是"牛市"，而是失控。 短短不到三周时间，金价从4600美元一路狂奔，先后突破4700、4800、4900美元，最终在1月26日首次 站上5000美元关口，并在随后几天内持续加速。到1月29日，现货黄金最高触及5600美元上方，几乎每 天都在刷新历史纪录。 然而，就在市场还沉浸在"黄金还能涨到哪里"的狂热情绪中时，1月30日，一记重锤落下。 当日，现货黄金从前一交易日的历史高位5600美元大幅跳水，盘中最低一度触及4686.12美元，单日最 大跌幅接近10%，最终收于4883.62美元。这是1983年以来黄金最大单日跌幅，也是现代贵金属交易史 上极为罕见的一幕。 在这一阶段，黄金几乎不再需要新的利多消息。"涨本身"成了最大的利多。无论是通胀、地缘风险，还 是美元信用问题，都只是上涨叙事的背景板。 二、黑色星期五：史上最惨烈的单日暴跌 1月12日：4600美元 1月20日：4700美元 1月21日：4800美元 1月22日：4900美元 1月26日：5100美元 1月28日：5400美元 1月29日：5600美元 暴跌发生得极其突然。1月30日，美盘时段，黄金与白 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 98,580.00 | -5100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,710.00 | -447.50↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 300.00 | +520.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 194,809.00 | -28125.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -70,006.00 | -2533.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 174,975.00 | -1100.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 233,004.00 | +7067.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 41,800.00 | -1800.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 158,527.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 100,460.00 | ...