Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Core Viewpoint - The gap between China's and the U.S.'s GDP has widened significantly, with China's GDP now only 60% of the U.S.'s, a stark contrast to 77% in 2021, raising concerns among the public [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The differing monetary policies of the U.S. and China are a primary factor in the widening GDP gap, with the U.S. Federal Reserve implementing aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, while China is lowering interest rates to stimulate economic growth [5][7]. - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, indicating persistent inflation, while China's CPI saw a slight decline of 0.1% during the same period [5][7]. Group 2: Exchange Rate - The exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar has fluctuated, impacting the GDP figures when converted to dollars. The yuan depreciated from an average of 7.11 to 7.18 against the dollar in the first half of the year [17][18]. - This depreciation means that even if China's GDP remains constant in yuan terms, its dollar value decreases significantly due to exchange rate changes, illustrating how market sentiment can affect GDP comparisons [20][22]. Group 3: Accounting Standards - The differences in GDP accounting methods between the two countries contribute to the perceived disparity. China primarily uses the production method, focusing on the actual output of goods and services, while the U.S. employs the expenditure method, which can inflate GDP figures through various expenditures, including hypothetical rents and high medical costs [25][27]. - The U.S. GDP may appear higher due to these accounting practices, which do not necessarily reflect the economic well-being of its citizens, as many expenditures do not translate into tangible benefits for the population [29]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - A more equitable comparison of economic strength may be achieved through purchasing power parity (PPP), which accounts for differences in price levels and currency values, providing a clearer picture of living standards and economic size [29][31]. - According to IMF projections, China's GDP is expected to exceed $40 trillion by 2025, potentially surpassing the U.S. when measured by PPP, suggesting that nominal GDP figures may not fully capture the economic realities [31]. Group 5: Historical Context - Historically, the economic gap between the U.S. and China has narrowed significantly, with the U.S. economy being 12 times larger than China's in 1993 and still 2.6 times larger in 2010, indicating substantial progress by China over the years [33].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision saw two dissenting votes among the 12 committee members, marking a rare occurrence of opposing views, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another for maintaining the current rate [1][6] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path has led to increased market volatility, with notable figures like Bill Gross beginning to short U.S. Treasury bonds [4][9] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from 91.7% to 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, indicating a shift in market expectations [2][5] Group 2 - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, has expressed a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries, citing concerns over rising deficits and a weakening dollar as key factors influencing his decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures [3][11] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming a focal point for market participants, with various officials presenting differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [6][8] - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors may need to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less sensitive to short-term policy fluctuations [11]

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points. Major global stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 2.2% respectively. In the commodity market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 2% and 1.5%, while gold prices dropped by 2.7%. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.8% [2][3]. Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points during the October meeting, with plans to end balance sheet reduction by December. There were internal disagreements, with two members opposing the rate cut. Fed Chair Powell indicated that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, citing concerns over missing key economic data due to the government shutdown and worries about inflation stabilization. The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates, stating that inflation remains close to the 2% target [4][5][6]. US Economic Dynamics - The US government shutdown continues, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to estimated economic losses of $7 billion to $14 billion. There are hopes among some Republicans for former President Trump to intervene. Meanwhile, the US and China have extended a truce in their trade war, with the US canceling a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and suspending other tariffs for a year. Additionally, a trade agreement was reached between the US and South Korea [9][10]. Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, but overall performance remains weak due to sluggish consumption and industrial capacity issues. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is at 6.3%, with youth unemployment rising. The US and Japan announced a $550 billion investment plan focusing on energy, AI, and critical minerals. Tokyo's core CPI rose to 2.8%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target due to rising utility prices. Israel has resumed airstrikes on Gaza in response to attacks from Hamas [16][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, leading to significant market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1][3][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29, but the decision was narrowly passed with a 10-2 vote, indicating internal divisions among board members [1][3]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with one member advocating for no rate change and another suggesting a 50 basis point cut, which is uncommon in recent decision-making [3][16]. - The lack of timely economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions, as key indicators like non-farm payrolls and inflation data are unavailable [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - September's CPI inflation data showed slightly lower-than-expected inflation pressures, with declines in housing services inflation and stable non-housing services inflation, which bolstered the Fed's confidence in controlling inflation [5][12]. - The job market is undergoing structural changes, influenced by immigration policies and AI, making traditional employment data harder to interpret [5][7]. - The Fed announced it would stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, citing tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves, which may help alleviate liquidity pressures [8][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, expectations for a December rate cut have significantly cooled, with traders reassessing the Fed's policy path amid ongoing data shortages [10][12]. - The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 4.28% to 3.97% since late August reflects the impact of the rate cut cycle, although historical trends suggest that the pace of decline may slow down [12][14]. - The stock market, particularly technology and interest-sensitive sectors, has been supported by the rate cut, while the dollar index may stabilize as economic conditions improve [14][16]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged due to declining risk-free interest rates, government shutdown uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends, with historical patterns suggesting a potential continuation of the current bull market [14][16].

Primary Market - A total of 21 offshore bonds were issued this week (October 27 to 31), including 3 RMB bonds, 16 USD bonds, 1 HKD bond, and 1 EUR bond, with issuance scales of 7.25 billion RMB, 4.705 billion USD, 100 million HKD, and 25 million EUR respectively [2] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 5 billion RMB by Meituan, while the highest coupon rate for RMB bonds was 6.9% issued by Weifang Ocean Investment Group [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 3 billion USD by the Asian Development Bank, with the highest coupon rate of 6% issued by China Thai Financial International [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly decreased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index down 0.11% to 251.13 [3] - The investment-grade USD bond index fell 0.12% to 243.57, while the high-yield USD bond index increased by 0.05% to 246.01 [3] - The real estate USD bond index decreased by 0.21% to 186.96, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.04% to 152.91 [3] Benchmark Spread - As of October 31, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US widened to 228.87 basis points, an increase of 13.88 basis points from the previous week [4] Rating Changes - Several credit rating adjustments occurred this week, including the withdrawal of ratings for Meixi Lake Investment, Hunan Jinxia Development Group, and Jiangsu Zhongxing Holdings due to commercial reasons [6] - Shanghai Commercial Bank's long-term issuer rating was downgraded to "BBB+" with a stable outlook [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China announced the resumption of open market government bond trading, which had been suspended earlier this year due to market imbalances [8] - As of the end of September, the custody balance of foreign institutions in China's bond market was 3.8 trillion RMB, accounting for 2% of the total custody balance [9] - Barclays plans to issue "Panda Bonds" in the Chinese interbank bond market, marking its entry into this market with a fundraising target of up to 4 billion RMB [10] Overseas News - The European Central Bank maintained its three key interest rates unchanged, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [11] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [12] Default and Extension - No significant defaults or extensions were reported this week [7] Company Announcements - Tianjin Bank reported a net profit of 3.527 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 5.47% [16] - TCL Technology plans to issue up to 2 billion RMB or equivalent foreign currency bonds through its wholly-owned subsidiary, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes and existing debt replacement [17]

Core Views - The Federal Reserve officials are engaged in a heated debate regarding the direction of monetary policy, with notable divisions on the decision to lower interest rates [1][5] Group 1: Hawkish Perspectives - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack oppose the recent rate cut decision, emphasizing that inflation risks have not fully dissipated and cautioning against aggressive rate cuts [3][4] - Logan highlights that while overall inflation is declining, core service prices and wage growth exhibit "sticky" characteristics, warning that excessive rate cuts could accelerate inflation, forcing the FOMC to tighten policy again [3] - Hammack points out that the current policy stance is close to neutral but not fully achieved, citing that the November core CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, with service price increases still above pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 2: Dovish Perspectives - Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a gradual approach to rate cuts, stating that current rates remain significantly above neutral levels, and further cuts would not be a drastic measure but rather a moderation of policy [4] - Waller notes that the labor market has shifted from overheating to balance, but warns of potential upward pressure on unemployment due to reduced job creation by new businesses [4] - He also mentions uncertainties in fiscal policy, indicating that large-scale tariffs or fiscal expansion could raise short-term inflation, while long-term economic slowdown and debt burdens may limit policy flexibility [4] Group 3: Powell's Position and Market Reaction - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges significant internal disagreement on the path of rate cuts, stating that the recent 25 basis point cut to 3.75%-4.00% was a cautious choice balancing employment and inflation risks [5] - Powell emphasizes that the decision for December will depend entirely on economic data over the next six weeks, highlighting three uncertainties: government shutdown impacts on Q4 GDP, tariff policy effects on prices, and potential deterioration in the labor market [5] - Following these statements, market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased sharply from 80% to 55%, with the dollar index rising above 104, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for October is at 49.0%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion in the service sector [1][5] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall stability in production and business operations [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for seven consecutive months, matching the longest stretch since August 2015 [2] - Key sub-indices such as production index (49.7%), new orders index (48.8%), and raw material inventory index (47.3%) all fell below the critical point, indicating weakened manufacturing activity [2][3] - The new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, reflecting reduced demand [3] Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively, continuing a downward trend for two months [3][4] - The decline in price indices is attributed to weakened downstream consumer demand and reduced upward pressure from upstream raw material prices [4] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity, driven by holiday effects [5] - Industries closely related to consumer travel, such as rail and air transport, showed strong performance with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity for three consecutive months, primarily influenced by the real estate sector [6] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, suggesting improved market outlook among construction firms [6] Policy Outlook - There are expectations for increased policy support to stabilize market conditions, with potential monetary policy easing on the horizon [7][8] - The anticipated impact of new policy measures, including significant financial tools for investment, may help the construction sector recover [7] Economic Trends - The ongoing demand contraction in the market is leading to an imbalance in the macroeconomic landscape, with supply exceeding demand [7] - Analysts emphasize the need for stronger counter-cyclical economic policies to stimulate demand and support business investment [7]

Economic Overview - Singapore's economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a decrease from the revised 4.4% growth in Q2, but still above market expectations of 2% [1] - The quarterly seasonally adjusted growth was 1.3%, slightly lower than Q2's 1.5%, indicating a continued recovery trend [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector growth was nearly stagnant in Q3, significantly down from 5.5% in Q2, primarily due to declines in biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing output [1] - However, the manufacturing sector showed a positive change with a 6.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, indicating adaptation to market changes [1] Construction Industry - The construction industry experienced a 3.1% year-on-year growth in Q3, a significant slowdown compared to Q2 [2] - Despite growth from public and private sector construction, the industry faced short-term pressure with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction in Q3 [2] Services Sector - The services sector showed mixed performance, with wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and warehousing growing by 2.5% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in Q2 [2] - Core service sectors such as information and communication, finance and insurance, and professional services maintained robust growth at 4.4%, consistent with Q2's performance [2] Other Services - Other service sectors, including accommodation and food services, real estate, and administrative support, grew by 4.1% year-on-year, stable compared to Q2 [3] - The recovery of international tourist numbers significantly boosted the accommodation sector, supported by stable domestic consumption [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the resilience shown in Q3, global economic uncertainties remain a significant risk factor [3] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to maintain the nominal effective exchange rate policy to balance potential inflation risks with economic growth uncertainties [3] - Long-term economic growth in Singapore will continue to be influenced by global economic conditions, trade tensions, and policy adjustments in major economies [3]

美联储理事沃勒表示，尽管存在政府停摆风险，美联储仍将获得大量数据。应依据数据指引来推进货币 政策。他进一步指出，所有数据都表明，当前正确的政策路径是继续推进降息。 ...