12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9985，同时在岸人民币对美元升破7.01元关 口，均为2024年9月底以来首次。整体来看，今年离岸人民币对美元汇率呈现"先抑后扬、震荡走升"的 趋势。2025年4月，离岸人民币对美元汇率在连续三个月升值后出现贬值，月内一度贬值至7.42下方， 随后又反转回升至7.26附近，此后呈现波动走势，整体升值态势明显。 至于对期货市场的影响，王骏认为，期货品种价格走势或将分化：进口依赖度强的大宗商品受离岸人民 币对美元汇率升值影响，企业采购成本会下降，相关期货品种的价格表现或偏强运行，如铜、铝、锡、 钴和铁矿石等；出口导向型的大宗商品或因人民币汇率升值，使海外竞争力相对减弱，相关期货品种的 价格短期内面临一定压力，如PTA、短纤、棉花、钢材、焦炭等出口占比较高的商品。 对此，王骏建议，产业企业须警惕汇率单边波动的风险，可以借助国内商业银行的外汇远期、外汇期权 等外汇衍生工具来锁定进出口汇率成本，有效对冲汇率短期波动风险和长期趋势性风险。个人交易者则 要坚守理性投资底线，不要盲目跟风，决策时须聚焦品种的基本面，同时匹配自身的风险承受能力，做 好期货仓位管理与 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. The Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weak. The reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small volatile correction yesterday. Due to the moderately loose monetary policy and the expected loose monetary environment next year, Treasury bond futures have strong support and have recently rebounded from the bottom. However, the current macro - economic data is resilient, so there is no strong urgency for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term. Moreover, the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter restricts the upward rebound of Treasury bond futures, causing resistance to their further upward movement [5].

文字早评 2025/12/26 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部回应是否会放松对美稀土磁体出口的限制：积极促进、便利合规贸易； 2、据证券时报，四家头部硅片企业今日联合大幅上调报价，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主要是上游 硅料涨幅较大所致； 3、国家烟草专卖局：推动电子烟市场供需平衡 切实防范化解市场无序竞争风险； 4、芯片：美光财报会披露，洁净室已成解决 HBM 产能问题的核心，计划将 2026 年洁净室建厂资本支出 翻倍。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.23%/-0.52%/-0.69%/-1.74%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.17%/-0.73%/-1.22%/-3.71%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.43%/-1.40%/-2.12%/-5.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/0.00%/0.04%/-0.16%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 112.510 ，环比 ...

Group 1 - The overall change in monetary policy this year includes a shift in the anchor of policy interest rates and diversification of monetary policy tools, with less aggressive easing than initially expected for next year [1] - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate comparisons is crucial, especially as market interest rates may enter a "no man's land" in 2024, raising questions about the pricing logic of long-duration bonds [1][2] - The anticipated return of funds from off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet for banks is expected to enhance the importance of asset pricing comparisons in the coming year [2] Group 2 - The central bank's actions, including the cessation of bond sales and the initiation of bond purchases, have led to significant mid-term liquidity injections through various tools, indicating a more diverse set of liquidity provision methods for next year [2][3] - Market focus is expected to shift towards the duration and structure of bond purchases by the central bank, as well as the operational details of various monetary policy tools [3] - A stable liquidity environment is anticipated for next year, with expectations of one or two interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, primarily aligned with major policy meetings [3] Group 3 - Broad credit is expected to expand moderately, driven by a backlog of projects ready for next year, with government remaining the primary driver of leverage, while household and corporate leverage intentions are relatively weak [4] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment, aligning with banks' needs to return off-balance sheet assets and providing opportunities for capturing returns in a low-interest-rate environment [4]

从运行节奏看，利率或呈现"两阶段"特征：年初至上半年，降准降息前置落地有望推动利率下行；年中 以后，随着通胀回升对名义增速形成支撑，以及地方化债逐步收尾、信用扩张条件改善，利率存在阶段 性上行压力。 一方面，中央经济工作会议延续适度宽松的货币政策定调，我们预计政策利率仍有10bps左右的调降空 间。结合央行在2025年三季度货政报告中提出保持合理的利率比价关系，判断2026年10年期国债收益率 中枢下移幅度与政策利率调整幅度大体一致。 另一方面，利率债仍将维持"低利率+高波动"格局，震荡幅度预计与2025年相当。2025年央行国债操作 变化、股债跷跷板效应及监管不确定性显著放大了利率波动，展望2026年，尽管政策基调延续宽松，但 降准降息的落地节奏仍存在分歧，扰动因素尚未完全消退，预计10年期国债收益率仍将保持约30bps的 波动区间。 中信证券指出，相较于2025年中国10年国债收益率1.6%-1.9%的运行区间，我们判断2026年收益率中枢 或下移10bps，同时维持30bps左右的震荡空间。 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展4000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。 12月，MLF维持超额续作，净投放1000亿元，配合买断式逆回购超额续作，两类工具共计释放中期流 动性3000亿元。 政策工具组合支撑市场平稳运行 从全年来看，2025年央行MLF净投放11610亿元，而2024年净投放规模为-19860亿元。 2025年央行设立买断式逆回购，两类政策工具"一收一放"，形成替代效应。 根据Wind统计信息，2025年以来，MLF和买断式逆回购均实施净投放，中期流动性净投放规模合计达 到49610亿元。 王青认为，这是今年央行降准次数较上年减少1次，国债净买入规模也较上年明显下降的背景下，市场 流动性持续处于较为稳定的充裕状态的主要原因。这有力支持了2025年政府债券较大规模发行。 投放规模较前两个月有所收窄 这是央行连续七个月开展中期流动性净投放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，前期安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩 大有效投资，这意味着12月还会有一定规模的政府债券发行；10月5000亿元新型政策 ...

本报记者 刘琪 "从政策实践来看，两项资本市场支持工具对提振市场行情、强化投资者信心具有较强作用。"明明认为，未来中国人民银 行可进一步加大对权益市场流动性的关注，通过新工具稳定市场运行态势；同时应落实货币政策"适度宽松"的定调，利用降 准、降息等总量型工具保持宏观流动性平稳。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对《证券日报》记者表示，通过制度化安排将两项工具的支持作用固定下来， 能够进一步稳定市场预期、增强投资者信心。预计未来相关部门还将根据业务开展情况和市场发展需要，进一步优化政策设 计，更好发挥两项工具支持资本市场稳定发展的作用。 互换便利的作用机制是"以券换券"，支持符合条件的证券、基金、保险公司使用债券、股票ETF、沪深300成分股等资产为 抵押，从中国人民银行换入国债、央行票据等高等级流动性资产。这一操作在不直接扩大基础货币投放的前提下，可大幅提升 机构的资金获取能力和股票增持能力。 股票回购增持再贷款则通过激励引导银行向符合条件的上市公司、主要股东发放相关贷款，要求贷款资金"专款专用、封 闭运行"，推动上市公司积极运用回购、股东增持等工具进行市值管理。 两项资本市场支持工具在实施过程中受到市 ...

北京一家银行分析师在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，这一表述变化是货币政策根据经济金融形 势作出的精准调整，标志着融资成本调控目标由"持续下行"转向"巩固既有成效"。 从现实情况看，我国社会融资成本已处于历史较低水平。有关数据显示，11月份企业新发放贷款（本外 币）加权平均利率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约30个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利 率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约3个基点。 上述银行分析师进一步指出，此次表述变化既是对前期降成本政策成效的肯定，也体现了政策取向的稳 健性。其核心在于通过维持融资成本低位运行，稳定市场预期、减轻经营主体负担，同时避免过度宽松 带来潜在风险。这也意味着，后续政策将更加侧重于完善利率传导机制、降低非利息成本等方式，巩固 降成本成果，而非单纯追求利率的绝对下行。 苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟也对记者表示，社会综合融资成本已处于相对合意的较低区间，当前的关键 在于防止其出现不必要的反弹，保持金融环境对实体经济的支持力度稳定。这体现了货币政策在稳增长 与防风险之间寻求平衡的精准性与灵活性。 会议还研究了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路，提出要发挥增量政策与存量政策的集成效应， ...

1、从央行会议中，看四个关键政策动向 今天国内A股市场总体盘面变化不大，三大指数小幅上行。虽然在过去一周左右市场持续回暖的过程 中，个人投资者的热情有所恢复，但大资金——也就是机构资金——加仓的迹象并不明显，市场的谨慎 情绪尚未完全消除。在年底这个微妙的时间点，我们仍需从政策等关键影响因素中寻找线索。 2、年底仍需紧抓政策暖风赛道 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、从央行会议中，看四个关键政策动向； 今天一个非常值得关注的政策信号来自央行。央行于昨天召开了货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会。 该会议每季度召开一次，对下一个季度（即未来三个月）的货币政策具有重要指引作用。会议结束后发 布的新闻稿看点颇多，可以说是近几个季度以来变化最大的一份例会文稿。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 第一个重要变化是关于人民币汇 ...