Supply Side - PX inventory is experiencing a destocking trend entering 2025, particularly after May, driven by limited supply increments and unexpected demand performance, leading to a significant recovery in PX valuation [1] - This year is not a major maintenance year for PX, with high operating rates in Q1 and limited maintenance plans in Q2, resulting in unexpected supply losses in May due to unplanned reductions at certain facilities [1] - Domestic PX production remains stable, with over half of the capacity being integrated refining and chemical facilities launched after 2019, while imports are still 20% reliant on regions like South Korea and Japan, which lack new capacity and have lower operational stability [1] Demand Side - Demand for PX has fluctuated between reality and expectations, with PTA processing fees compressed to low levels after the Spring Festival, leading to a delay in PX destocking [2] - The escalation of US-China trade tensions initially weakened demand expectations, causing PX prices to drop to yearly lows, but a subsequent easing of tensions and strong export orders improved demand and operational rates in the downstream [2] - As of May, the recovery in PTA operating rates has continued the PX destocking trend, with improved buying intentions from PTA factories leading to a rapid recovery in PX prices [2] Future Outlook - In the short term, the recovery in PTA operating rates is expected to continue the PX destocking trend, with improved PX production profits and delayed maintenance in domestic and overseas facilities indicating that PX valuations are entering a reasonable range [3] - Long-term projections suggest that with only 3 million tons of new PX capacity expected from Yulong Petrochemical, while PTA has significant upcoming capacity additions, the domestic PX supply gap is likely to widen [3] - Although tariffs may limit terminal demand growth compared to PTA capacity growth, restricted operating levels in other Asian regions are expected to constrain import increases, indicating further improvement potential in the long-term supply-demand landscape for PX [3]

Group 1 - The decline in raw material prices is expected to enhance the company's profitability, with soda ash prices dropping 13.8% since the beginning of the year and energy prices weakening, leading to a decrease in downstream chemical product prices [1] - The company's main raw material costs are projected to decrease in the second half of 2024, with average procurement prices for soda ash, ethylene tar, anthracene oil, and coal tar dropping by 21.3%, 11.5%, 7.0%, and 11.5% respectively [1] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 19.2% in 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to 2023, driven by lower raw material costs [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 50,000-ton nano carbon material project set to start production in June 2024 and a silica capacity increase of 30,000 tons expected in November 2024 [2] - The production and sales volume of carbon black and silica are projected to increase significantly in 2024, with carbon black production and sales rising by 25.6% and 20.9% respectively, and silica production and sales increasing by 27.7% and 26.5% [2] - The company is also progressing with the second phase of its nano carbon material project, which is expected to contribute to incremental performance [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.72 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 19.9%, 18.8%, and 21.6% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 360 million, 450 million, and 600 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 26.9%, and 32.1% [3] - Based on the closing price on May 21, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13, 10, and 8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+0），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差218，升贴水比例3.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+40），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差204，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: May 19, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the long - term. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural film, while for PP, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventories of both are neutral, and it is expected that the prices of PE and PP will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are the key factor. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. It's the off - season for agricultural film, but there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 102, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (- 5.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launch and weak crude oil [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs declined. Tariff games are crucial. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 189, with a premium ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (- 7.2), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [15].

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Chemical's profitability continues to decline, and its attempt to expand through acquisitions has failed [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Attempt - Huafeng Chemical announced the termination of its plan to acquire 100% of Huafeng Synthetic Resin and Huafeng Thermoplastic Polyurethane due to lack of shareholder approval [2][3] - The total consideration for the failed transaction was 6 billion yuan in cash and 54 billion yuan in shares, with a proposed issuance of 879 million shares [2] - The valuation of Huafeng Synthetic Resin showed a 506.96% increase, while Huafeng Thermoplastic had a 478.49% increase compared to their book values [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Huafeng Chemical's revenue was 258.84 billion yuan, 262.98 billion yuan, and 269.31 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.75%, 1.60%, and 2.41% respectively [6] - Net profit for the same period was 28.44 billion yuan, 24.78 billion yuan, and 22.20 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 64.17%, 12.85%, and 10.43% respectively [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 63.14 billion yuan, down 5.15% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.04 billion yuan, down 26.21% [8] Group 3: Industry Context - The spandex industry has transitioned from a peak to a cyclical low, facing oversupply and declining raw material prices, leading to continuous price drops [8][9] - The average price of domestic spandex 40D in 2024 was 26,417.21 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.11% [9] - Despite the challenges, Huafeng Chemical plans to continue expanding its production capacity, with an additional 150,000 tons of spandex expected to be gradually put into production starting in 2025 [9]

Group 1 - The main plastic futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7339.00 yuan, with a closing price of 7339.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.66% [1] - Zhonghui Futures suggests a bearish outlook for plastic, citing an increase in supply with 2.08 million tons of new capacity from companies like Wanhua and the startup of Shandong New Era's facility [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the short-term trend for plastic will continue to rebound and repair prices, supported by a recent rebound in international crude oil prices [3] Group 2 - The demand side shows a decline in agricultural film operating rates for four consecutive weeks, indicating weak demand [2] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive due to the recent consensus reached during the China-US meeting, which may support plastic prices [3] - The recommendation from Zhonghui Futures is to gradually take profits on long positions and avoid chasing higher prices, while monitoring the price trends of crude oil and coal [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, but profit performance was negatively impacted by increased expenses [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.90% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.08 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.50% [2][4] - The non-recurring net profit was 1.34 million yuan, down 61.42% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved to 24.24%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net margin was -0.55%, a decline of 2.92 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Investment Insights - The decline in net profit was primarily due to increased R&D expenses from the subsidiary Huahai, which rose by 4.39 million yuan year-on-year [2] - Financial expenses increased by 7.49 million yuan year-on-year due to the cessation of capitalizing interest on convertible bonds after the completion of fundraising projects [2] Capacity Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the company's total fixed assets amounted to 1.13 billion yuan, an increase of 927 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024, expanding the total scale by approximately five times [2] - The company has officially put into production the fundraising project "Production Construction Project of Progesterone and Intermediate BA" and is enhancing the construction of the Huahai joint raw material drug project and steroid industry chain upgrade project [2] Share Buyback Program - The company plans to repurchase shares using its own funds and a special loan for share buybacks, with 10% from its own funds and 90% from the loan [3] - The total repurchase amount will be no less than 20 million yuan and no more than 30 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 23.84 yuan per share [3] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had repurchased 120,000 shares, accounting for 0.10% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 1.92 million yuan [3] Investment Outlook - The company’s capacity is expected to be gradually released, and profitability is anticipated to recover with increased capacity utilization [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 617 million yuan, 741 million yuan, and 889 million yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at -31 million yuan, -15 million yuan, and 53 million yuan [4] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 are estimated at 121X and 33X, respectively, with a continued "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging year for the polyester industry in 2024, with significant production capacity pressures expected, particularly in PTA [2][3]. Core Insights - The polyester industry is transitioning from a phase of new capacity additions to a focus on balancing existing capacity, leading to increased industry adjustments [2][8]. - Price volatility has decreased across various products, but significant differentiation has emerged between upstream and downstream segments [2][8]. - The supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA are expected to remain under pressure, while ethylene glycol is anticipated to see marginal improvements in its supply-demand balance [5][22]. Summary by Sections Polyester Industry Overview - 2024 is projected to be a challenging year, with a shift from new capacity investments to the rebalancing of existing capacities [2][8]. - The overall production capacity for polyester is expected to increase by approximately 689 million tons, with a total capacity reaching 8,508 million tons [38]. PX (Paraxylene) - PX production is expected to see limited new capacity additions in 2024, with a total production of 3,770 million tons, reflecting an 11.9% growth [14][21]. - The domestic PX supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, while demand remains strong, leading to a potential improvement in the supply-demand balance [21][22]. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - PTA is facing significant production capacity pressures, with an expected total capacity of 9,472 million tons by the end of 2025, reflecting a 10% growth rate [22][32]. - The demand for PTA is projected to grow by 11.6% in 2024, with total consumption reaching approximately 6,634 million tons [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is expected to experience a stable supply-demand balance in 2024, with production capacity anticipated to increase by 160 million tons by the end of 2025 [5][35]. - The overall price for ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation range, with a slight upward adjustment in the price center [5][35]. Market Dynamics - The polyester market is characterized by a significant increase in bottle chip production, while short fibers and long fibers are expected to see stable growth [38][39]. - The overall industry is experiencing a rise in inventory levels, with a projected total inventory accumulation of approximately 800,000 tons for PTA [45].