1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

Core Insights - The current implementation of the "anti-involution" policy focuses on capacity regulation and price guidance, which may lead to a dual turning point in the market [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote a downward turning point in excess capacity and an upward turning point in the Producer Price Index (PPI) as the process of resolving excess capacity accelerates [1][3] Policy Development - The "anti-involution" policy began with the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024, which first proposed preventing "involution-style" vicious competition, and has since evolved into specific corrective actions by December 2024 [2] - The policy has become a frequent topic in high-level meetings this year, with related measures being implemented, including the construction of a unified market and ten industry stabilization plans [2] Industry-Specific Measures - Different industries may adopt varying approaches to "anti-involution," but the overarching focus remains on capacity regulation and price guidance [2] - The main strategies include controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging mergers and acquisitions, all aimed at regulating capacity and guiding prices [2] Market Implications - The successful implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, supported by effective demand expansion measures, is expected to provide bullish support for the capital market [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims for an annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value, emphasizing strict control over new refining capacities and promoting high-end chemical products and emerging fields like new energy and low-altitude economy [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Control and Supply Optimization - The plan mandates strict control over new refining capacities and the pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity releases to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [2][3]. - By 2024, national refining capacity is projected to reach 955 million tons per year, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity under 1 billion tons by 2025 [2][3]. - The industry is experiencing negative growth in gasoline and diesel demand due to the rise of electric vehicles and natural gas heavy trucks, reducing the impetus for blind expansion [2][3]. Group 2: High-End Product Development - The plan focuses on addressing the supply shortage of high-end products by supporting key areas such as electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and specialty rubber [3]. - Companies are encouraged to innovate and industrialize high-end fine chemicals and improve the quality of bulk products to meet market demands [3]. - The transition to high-end products is seen as essential for companies, requiring significant investment in research and development to achieve cost-effective and stable mass production [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industry Applications - The plan identifies opportunities in emerging industries like new energy, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots, aiming to expand application scenarios for materials such as battery materials and carbon fiber [4][5]. - Leading companies are already making strides in high-end material sectors, with examples like Zhongfu Shenying advancing in carbon fiber applications for aerospace and new energy industries [4][5]. - The demand for new materials in sectors like automotive and humanoid robotics is expected to grow significantly, with specific materials being highlighted for their advantages in weight reduction and durability [5]. Group 4: AI and Data Innovation - The plan emphasizes the importance of building high-quality data sets and developing industry-specific AI models to enhance technological innovation and efficiency [6]. - Major players in the industry, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, are already implementing AI technologies to improve operational efficiency and safety [6]. - Initiatives like the Kunlun model app and the Changcheng model have been launched to support the digital transformation of the petrochemical sector [6].

Policy Development - The "anti-involution" policy was first proposed in July 2024 during a Central Political Bureau meeting, aiming to prevent "involutionary" competition[1] - By December 2024, the focus shifted from risk warning to specific rectification actions, indicating a move towards comprehensive governance[1] - In 2025, the policy became a frequent topic in high-level meetings, with actionable measures being implemented across various industries[1] Industry-Specific Measures - Different industries have varied approaches to "anti-involution," focusing on capacity control and price guidance[1] - Key strategies include controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging mergers and acquisitions[1] - The coal industry aims to control total production and ensure that long-term contracts cover over 80% of output[12] - The steel industry is focusing on low emissions and halting new capacity replacements to curb disordered expansion[15] Expected Outcomes - The "anti-involution" policy may lead to a dual inflection point: a downward trend in capacity surplus and an upward trend in the Producer Price Index (PPI)[1] - As of Q2 2025, the growth rate of industrial capacity has slightly fallen below GDP growth, indicating a potential acceleration in resolving capacity surplus[24] - The relationship between capacity surplus and PPI suggests that as capacity surplus decreases, PPI is likely to rise[24] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected implementation of "anti-involution" policies, geopolitical risks, and the possibility of historical patterns failing to hold[30]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The cumulative output of listed pig companies from January to August 2025 reached 126 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.12% [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current pig industry is in its sixth cycle, with the internal expansion phase nearing its end, leading to accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and losses [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture plans to reduce the breeding sow stock by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million [8]. - By the end of July 2025, the breeding sow stock was at 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity regulation [5][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Consumer demand is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially stabilizing prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a negative cycle where lower prices lead to panic selling among farmers, further driving prices down [7]. - The industry is shifting towards a more structured approach, with a focus on quality and differentiation rather than merely reducing capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Adjustments - The government is actively implementing measures to control pig production, including meetings with major pig companies to discuss production adjustments [8][9]. - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods are reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve into a "30-30-40" structure, with 30% of large enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% being flexible family farms [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, has issued a plan titled "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at guiding the development of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects while controlling new refining capacity and preventing overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [1] Group 1: Project Planning and Capacity Control - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the planning and layout of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects [1] - It mandates strict control over new refining capacity and rational determination of new capacity scales and deployment rhythms for ethylene and paraxylene [1] - The petrochemical sector is required to strictly implement capacity reduction and replacement requirements for new refining projects [1] Group 2: Support for Upgrades and Innovations - The plan focuses on supporting the renovation of old petrochemical facilities, the industrialization demonstration of new technologies, and projects that increase chemical production while reducing oil output [1] - In the modern coal chemical sector, the plan encourages the development of coal-to-oil and coal-to-chemical projects in areas with abundant coal and water resources [1] Group 3: Integration with New Technologies - The plan promotes the coupling of coal chemical processes with new energy, advanced materials, technical equipment, and industrial operating systems for demonstration applications [1] - It also includes initiatives for carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage engineering demonstrations [1] - The acceleration of projects for helium extraction from natural gas and potassium extraction from seawater is highlighted [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed positive performance, with glass futures main contract opening at 1252.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1282.00 CNY, marking a 3.81% increase [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a notice regarding the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass [1] - As of September 18, the float glass industry maintained an operating rate of 76.01% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08%, with a stable daily output of 160,200 tons [1] Group 2 - Huawen Futures indicated that as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are concerned about price increases post-holiday, leading to passive inventory replenishment, which is expected to boost spot transaction volume and reinforce price increase expectations [1] - Zhongcai Futures noted that supply remains stable with limited changes in production capacity, while demand is driven by policy pushing up raw glass prices, leading to increased purchasing intentions from downstream sectors [2] - The market is currently experiencing a mix of price stability and upward adjustments in various regions, with expectations of a short-term price trend that is likely to be strong and volatile [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Low-level operation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is oscillating. The downstream situation remains weak, and the price is consolidating at a low level. Attention should be paid to weekly fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to strictly control cement and glass production capacity and prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [1] Production and Inventory Data - In mid-September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons (3.4%) from the previous ten-day period [1] Cost and Profit Data - This week, the average tax-excluded hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,228 yuan/ton, and the average tax-included billet cost was 2,986 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex-factory price of 3,030 yuan/ton on September 24, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 44 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Market Performance - Yesterday, finished products oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rise of coking coal and glass in the afternoon [1] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions are the factors to watch in the later stage [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting regarding the glass industry, with plans to increase prices by 100 yuan, leading to a surge in glass prices during trading [4] - The "Building Materials Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was issued, emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity and requiring capacity replacement plans for any new or modified projects [4][5] - The plan encourages the use of clean energy and the elimination of outdated production capacity, focusing on improving environmental performance and energy efficiency in the glass industry [5][6] Group 2 - The glass industry has seen marginal improvements in September, with inventory reduction driven by downstream stockpiling, although overall demand remains weak [8] - The current production capacity has slightly increased to 160,000 tons per day, which is historically high, but the market is still characterized by high supply and weak demand [8] - There is a potential for short-term price fluctuations due to increased sentiment and production control measures, but long-term prospects may revert to weak demand if capacity reductions do not materialize [10] Group 3 - The glass industry is currently in a low valuation environment, presenting opportunities for low long positions, especially if production capacity adjustments are implemented [9][10] - The expansion of soda ash production capacity poses a supply pressure that could negatively impact glass demand if capacity controls are enforced [10] - A strategy of going long on glass while shorting soda ash may be considered due to the anticipated supply adjustments in the glass sector [10]