大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/1 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2280 4 0.18% 13,931 -30.94% 115,285 0.96% 2304 0 0.00% 2,522 -41.03% 18,817 2.24% 2383 5 0.21% 426,304 -12.30% 942,750 -2.86% 2678 5 0.19% 2,056 213.41% 5,028 10.14% 2698 7 0.26% 52 -30.77% 221 6.25% 2743 10 0.36% 107,836 -11.75% 156,387 -0.32% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2300 2090 2550 2490 2400 2510 2470 10 0 -12 -40 10 0 0 -83 -293 167 107 17 127 87 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2800 2850 2850 3020 2950 2980 2960 0 50 0 ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. - For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and (night session) was 8,324 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 210,910 hands to 442,785 hands, and open interest decreased by 4,500 hands to 450,508 hands [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,002 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and (night session) was 7,982 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 95,869 hands to 270,622 hands, and open interest decreased by 5,507 hands to 564,645 hands [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% decrease, and (night session) was 9,452 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 86,818 hands to 214,216 hands, and open interest decreased by 8,794 hands to 319,403 hands [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,012 ringgit/ton with a 1.19% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 52.62 cents/pound with a - 0.44% decrease [1]. - **Spot Prices** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,520 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price was 1,005 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spreads** - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 124 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 238 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,090 yuan/ton, down from 1,122 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 374 yuan/ton, down from - 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down from 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, down from 62 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan/ton, down from 78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvesting progress has reached 98.3% and 55.3% respectively, and the expected yields are 50.3 million tons and 49 million tons [2]. - Due to the planned tariff increase, Argentine exporters have exported 6.1 million tons of soybeans and their derivatives since June, a 22% surge compared to the five - year average. The soybean export tariff will rise from 26% to 33% in July, and the tariffs for soybean oil and soybean meal will increase from 24.5% to 31% [5]. - Strategie Grains has raised the forecast for the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production to 19.2 million tons, a 600,000 - ton increase from last month's forecast and a 14% increase compared to 2024/25. The sunflower seed production forecast has been lowered by 300,000 tons to 10.1 million tons but is still 19% higher than 2024/25. The soybean production forecast remains at 3 million tons, 4% lower than last year [5]. - As of the week ending June 24, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 57.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed crops are at various growth stages. In 2025, Canadian farmers planted 21.5 million acres of rapeseed, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year. In Saskatchewan, the planted area decreased by 0.5%, in Alberta by 2.8%, and in Manitoba by 9.2% [6]. - As of the week ending June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 10.3% to 117,900 tons. From August 1, 2024, to June 22, 2025, exports reached 8.9319 million tons, a 52.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 1.2816 million tons [7]. - In May 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 831,193 tons, a 9.59% month - on - month decrease; rapeseed oil production was 353,218 tons, a 9.5% decrease; rapeseed meal production was 490,043 tons, a 9.76% decrease. The soybean crushing volume was 158,387 tons, a 7.97% increase; soybean oil production was 29,379 tons, a 6.64% increase; soybean meal production was 121,417 tons, a 4.66% increase [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [8].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 673.0 | 663.0 | 10.0 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-26 2025/06/26 原油早评： 能源化工组 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/26 甲醇早评： 甲醇 6 月 25 日 09 合约涨 12 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货涨 10 元/ 吨，基差+259。地缘局势降温，原油大跌，甲醇盘面跌近 5%，外围风险逐步消散，后续预计价 格波动率将逐步回落，市场逐步回归自身供需基本面。近期甲醇的上涨使得其估值大幅抬升， 下游利润被大幅压缩，受海外因素影响，预计国内 8 月份进口相对有限，09 合约前港口难以大 幅累库，盘面基差维持强势。总体来看，国内供应维持高位，需求短期尚可，后续需求仍有走 弱风险，整体矛盾有限，单边参与难度较大，建议观望为主。 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.07 美元，跌幅 0.11%，报 64.94 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.21 美元，跌幅 0.31%，报 67.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.20 元，跌幅 1.00%， 报 515.7 元。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Basis Information**: - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4,550 yuan. The PP price has risen, and PDH production profit has improved, while FEI production profit is lower than CP. The PG futures price has increased significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread has changed from -11 to 103. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Civil gas prices have risen significantly, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4,603 yuan. Shandong shows signs of stabilization; East China is generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but has marginally improved due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices have rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures is strongly running, the basis of the 07 contract has weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread is now 195 (+10) [1]. - **External Market and Spread Information**: - External market prices have strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP has reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP is -19 (+31). Freight rates have increased, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has decreased [1]. - Among product spreads, PDH production profit has worsened, FEI production profit is lower than CP; the profitability of alkylated oil has decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit has increased, while isomerization etherification profit has decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads have declined [1]. - **Fundamental Information**: - Both port inventories and factory inventories have decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments have declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1]. - Chemical demand has generally improved. The PDH operating rate has increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate has increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production has also increased significantly. A large number of MTBE export orders support the price. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,005 lots (-335) [1].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamental analysis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price trends, trading volume, positions, and macro - industry news [1][2][4] Core Views - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [1] - For soybean oil, there is a risk of a price pull - back due to potential geopolitical easing [1] Industry News - ITS reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 59.9 million tons month - on - month to 1.983 billion tons [2] - The USDA predicted that the total cost of producing soybeans in the US in 2025 would be $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it would be $650.34 per acre [4] - As of the week ending June 17, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and 2% last year [4] - Analysts noted that rainfall in the Canadian prairies is expected to ease the drought, where about 40% of the area is currently experiencing drought. The Canadian Statistics Bureau will release a sowing area report on June 27, and its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [4] Futures Market Data Price and Price Change | Variety | Day - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Day - session Price Change (%) | Night - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Night - session Price Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,538 | 0.23% | 8,596 | 0.68% | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,152 | 0.84% | 8,196 | 0.54% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,691 | - 0.12% | 9,737 | 0.47% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract (ringgit/ton) | 4,102 | 0.02% | 4,143 | 0.95% | [1] Trading Volume and Position | Variety | Previous Trading Volume (lots) | Trading Volume Change | Previous Position (lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 605,854 | - 49,717 | 505,691 | - 6,669 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 463,250 | 35,939 | 615,911 | 30,527 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 314,433 | - 118,096 | 390,919 | 2,081 | [1] Spot Price and Price Change | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 8,800 | 0 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,360 | 70 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,760 | 10 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract, US dollars/ton) | 1,005 | 10 | [1] Basis and Spread | Variety | Basis (yuan/ton) | Spread (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 262 | Palm Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 30 (Previous: 42) | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 208 | Soybean Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 76 (Previous: 70) | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 69 | Rapeseed Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 115 (Previous: 130) | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,153 (Previous: 1,185) | | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 386 (Previous: - 434) | | [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5]

白糖日报 软商品日报 2025/06/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].