11月22日，在"第二十届21世纪金融年会"的财富管理主题论坛上，华夏理财董事长苑志宏发表题为《低利率环境助力银行理财子公司高质量发 展跨越升级》的演讲。他指出，低利率周期已然来临，在给资管行业带来巨大挑战的同时，更是银行理财行业实现战略转型与跨越升级的重要 机遇期。 "如果按照定期存款约170万亿元、平均加权久期1.5年测算，每年到期重定价的定期存款规模要超100万亿元。若有5%腾挪至理财，每年即可 为银行理财带来超5万亿元的增量空间。"苑志宏表示。 同时，银行理财也是"多资产配置时代的受益者"。苑志宏指出，在低利率环境下，债券、非标等固收类资产的投资性价比下降、收益在下降； 而以权益、黄金、商品为代表的多资产投资在兴起，成为市场的主流。"银行理财作为配置型产品，监管赋予的投资范围非常宽广，能够进行 跨市场、跨品种、跨策略的资产配置，并可集成配置公募基金、保险资管、信托等专业资管产品，通过多元化配置提升收益。" 面对机遇，苑志宏结合华夏理财实践，提出推动高质量发展的三大举措。一是进一步加大渠道拓展力度，提升市场渗透率。二是加强投研能力 建设，获取全天候稳健收益。三是增强客户服务能力，提升全方位客户体验。 ( ...

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 experienced a "fast bull and slow bear" phase, with institutional behavior and market narratives becoming key factors in market pricing [3] - For 2026, three factors are expected to provide a ceiling for interest rates: real estate data, local government debt management, and bank interest margins [3] - Low interest rates are seen as essential for stabilizing the real estate market, reducing policy costs, and managing local government debt risks [3][4] Group 2 - The policy environment is expected to provide moderate support rather than strong stimulus, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to act in concert [4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%-5%, with fiscal policies maintaining a deficit rate near 4% and potential expansion of policy financial tools [4] - The balance between monetary easing and fiscal efforts will be crucial for identifying opportunities in the bond market [4] Group 3 - Institutional behavior and market narratives remain at the forefront of bond market strategies, with a focus on discovering trading strategies and interpreting market sentiments [4] - The current low net interest margin and the pressure on banks to manage liabilities indicate a challenging environment for bond investments [4] - The introduction of new regulations affecting fund redemptions may lead to short-term adjustments in the bond market [4] Group 4 - The real estate market is undergoing a slow recovery, with significant time needed to achieve repair goals [20] - The downward trend in real estate prices is impacting banks' collateral values, which could lead to increased risk exposure for banks [24] - The high leverage levels in both government and household sectors limit the potential for further demand in the real estate market [23]

Core Insights - The trust industry is seizing the opportunity presented by regulatory pilot programs to promote the standardization and scaling of real estate and equity trust businesses, providing new pathways for wealth management in a low-interest-rate environment [1][3][4] Group 1: Industry Developments - Beijing will launch a pilot program for real estate trust property registration by the end of 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in overcoming long-standing regulatory bottlenecks [3] - The rapid growth of family trusts and insurance trusts is highlighted, with family trust development reaching a scale of 300 billion and combined family and insurance trusts exceeding 1 trillion since their inception [4] Group 2: Value Proposition - Real estate trusts offer threefold value: providing asset isolation and life security for aging and special needs families, helping enterprises revitalize real estate assets, and enhancing the trust mechanism to better serve the real economy [3] - The importance of wealth management is emphasized as a core issue of the times, with the current low-interest cycle prompting a reevaluation of wealth management fundamentals [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trust industry is experiencing a shift in demand, with insurance products gaining relative advantages in a low-interest environment, leading to increased public risk awareness and growth in insurance and family trusts [4] - Various institutions, including banks, insurance companies, and law firms, are entering the trust market, creating a diversified development ecosystem [4] Group 4: Strategic Transformation - The trust industry is moving away from traditional business models reliant on government financing, channels, and real estate, seeking new business breakthroughs and profit growth points [5] - Wealth inheritance business is identified as a core direction for trust companies, optimizing business structures and supporting sustainable profit models during the industry's transformation [5] Group 5: Innovative Practices - Guangdong's experience in trust innovation includes allowing pre-registration of real estate, removing restrictions on trust company registration locations, and flexible integration with will trusts, enhancing the system's attractiveness [6]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Market Conditions - The market anticipates a 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which supports the silver and precious metals market [1] - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Harker, as the next Federal Reserve Chair further boosts confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a consistent supply shortage in silver due to declining production levels, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [1] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the physical market [1] - Short-term leasing rates for silver have surged, indicating a significant supply shortage in the market [1] Price Valuation - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, which is notably higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, suggesting that silver is relatively undervalued within the precious metals sector [1] - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares, driven by global capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Historical bubbles require three key conditions: a low interest rate environment, a market with profit-making effects, and a lack of investment opportunities in major global markets [1] - The example of the 2006-2007 A-share market surge illustrates how external factors, such as the collapse of the US real estate market, can create favorable conditions for domestic markets to thrive [1]

11月22日，为凝聚行业智慧、探寻发展新路径，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪经济报道主办的"第二十届21世纪金融年 会"在北京盛大召开。 在"财富管理的低利率之问"主题论坛上，华夏理财董事长苑志宏发表题为《低利率环境助力银行理财子公司高质量发展跨越升 级》的演讲。他指出，低利率周期已然来临，在给资管行业带来巨大挑战的同时，更是银行理财行业实现战略转型与跨越升级 的重要机遇期。 "自2019年第一批银行理财子公司成立以来，我们按照资管新规要求，积极融入资管行业发展主流，规范化、市场化、专业化运 作不断增强，市场形象和品牌影响力不断提升。"他表示，截至目前，全市场32家理财子公司管理规模达29.28万亿元，同比增长 15.26%，其中3家规模超2万亿元，11家超1万亿元。"银行理财子公司已比肩公募基金与保险资管，成为资管行业中举足轻重的 一支重要力量。" 苑志宏特别强调，银行理财"稳健风格深入人心"。"净值化转型之后，银行理财始终坚守绝对收益目标，每年为投资者创造稳定 正回报，业绩稳定性显著优于公募基金，较好解决了'基金赚钱、基民亏钱'的矛盾，真正践行了以客户为中心的理念。" 低利率打开广阔空间，存款腾挪或带 ...

Group 1 - London spot silver prices reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce for the first time, with a current price of $57.7 per ounce, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.3% [1] - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, providing strong support for silver and the entire precious metals market, with an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] Group 2 - A persistent supply shortage in silver has been noted due to declining production levels, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [3] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating tightness in the spot market [3] - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [3] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 silver price target to $65 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supply-demand dynamics in the market [2]. Group 1: Price Movement - As of December 1, during Asian trading hours, the London spot silver price hit $57.7 per ounce, marking an increase of approximately 2.3% [2]. - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a heightened market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 87.4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2]. - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Harker, as the next Federal Reserve Chair has further bolstered confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A persistent supply shortage has been noted due to declining silver production in recent years, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [2]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the spot market [2]. - In the leasing market, short-term silver leasing rates have surged, highlighting the scarcity of silver supply [2]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - The current gold-to-silver price ratio stands at approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [2]. - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [2].

自2025年初以来，市场风险偏好系统性上升，受益于科技投资热潮及企业资本开支扩张，股票市场整体 表现较强劲。相较之下，债券市场则面临一定压力，在基本面相对疲弱与风险偏好回升之间博弈，整体 表现主要受风险情绪主导，投资体验相对欠佳。核心原因或在于，当前低利率环境下债券票息收益有 限，难以有效对冲净值波动，导致防御属性有所弱化。 一、2025年以来债券市场回顾 图1：截至2025年11月14日十年国债走势 数据来源：wind，诺德基金整理；统计区间：2025.01.01-2025.11.14。指数行情走势不预示其未来 表现，也不代表具体基金产品表现。以上信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议，基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 截至2025年11月14日，10年期国债收益率运行于1.81%附近，较年初上行约13个基点，全年走势呈现窄 幅震荡，区间大致维持在1.6%至1.9%之间。全年债市走势与经济基本面脱钩，调整主要由宏观叙事驱 动。2024年四季度市场对货币政策空间预期偏高，收益率提前定价，透支了一定上行空间。 全年债券市场大致呈现"两轮调整+两轮修复"的震荡格局，利率中枢整体有所抬升： 诺德基金债券投资部副总监徐娟 第一轮 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4200 per ounce, marking a nearly 1% increase, with COMEX gold futures also rising to $4222.8 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices showed significant increases, with various brands reporting daily price changes [2] - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength, enhancing gold's appeal [3] Group 2 - Predictions indicate that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce by Q1 2026, reflecting an average increase of 8% to 12% [3] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to continue influencing international gold price trends [3] - Macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly fluctuations in Federal Reserve monetary policy, may lead to price volatility in the gold market [3]