Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [126]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent easing of trade disputes between the US and China, along with better-than-expected US inflation data, has improved market sentiment and supported oil prices. Brent crude oil prices increased to $65.41 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of $1.50 [15]. - The refining sector has seen a price increase in refined products due to the easing of tariffs and improved demand, particularly in petrochemical products like styrene and MMA, which have experienced significant price increases [51][84]. - The report indicates that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2422.43 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 89.11 CNY/ton (3.82%), while the international price difference is 1125.10 CNY/ton, up 63.39 CNY/ton (5.97%) [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the Brent crude oil price averaged $65.36 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 6.23%. The EIA reported a decrease in US crude oil inventories, which contributed to the fluctuations in oil prices [15]. - The domestic market for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel has seen average prices of 6852.00 CNY/ton, 7934.80 CNY/ton, and 6005.67 CNY/ton respectively, with varying changes in price differentials against crude oil [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the prices of petrochemical products have generally risen due to the easing of trade tensions. For instance, the price of pure benzene increased to 5907.14 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 242.86 CNY/ton [51]. - The report also highlights that the price of MMA has increased due to supply reductions from maintenance activities, with the average price reaching 10360.71 CNY/ton [67]. Polyester Sector - The report mentions that the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have risen significantly due to supply constraints and increased demand from downstream industries. The average price of PX is reported at 6119.88 CNY/ton, up 676.46 CNY/ton [84][88]. - The report notes that the polyester filament market has seen a significant increase in sales volume, driven by improved demand from downstream weaving enterprises [92]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.82%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.04%) over the past week [113]. - Over the past month, the stock price of Dongfang Shenghong has increased by 15.34%, indicating strong market performance [113].

金十数据5月15日讯，德国经济部长凯瑟琳·赖希周四表示，美国仍然是合作伙伴，而不是对手，欧盟和 美国需要找到一个"明智"的解决方案来解决关税争端。她在布鲁塞尔对记者表示："我们正在从经济实 力的立场进行谈判，但我们必须谨慎使用这种立场。""我们必须谈判，我们必须找到解决方案，因为升 级没有赢家。" 德国经济部长：美国仍是伙伴，需要"明智"的关税解决方案 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 萧达 环球时报特约记者 王逸】自北京时间5月14日12时01分（美东时间5月14日0时01分）起，中美同时调整对对方商品加征关 税措施。根据中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美方取消91％的加征关税，暂停实施24％的"对等关税"；中方也相应取消91％反制关税，暂停实施24％的反制 关税。双方各自保留10％的关税。与此同时，美国采购商迅速开始行动，抓紧时间从中国抢购和囤货，有中国出口工厂老板称，他的手机来电铃声近两天来 一直没停，都是美方要求加快交货的。这凸显中美之间巨大而真实的贸易需求。美国高盛分析师称，未来90天，从中国进口将爆火，"抢先"成为关键词。不 过，法新社称，尽管中美关税争端暂时缓解，但美国公司仍担忧90天后美方政策"可能出现波动"。对于中美是否会举行下阶段高层经贸会谈，并讨论美方以 芬太尼为由对中国产品征收的20%关税，中国外交部发言人林剑14日在记者会上表示，美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取 包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。这些反制措施仍然有效。 美国企业加紧进口囤货 "中美正式同时互降关税。"据法新社14日报道，根据中 ...

第三，价格与就业压力加大。关税冲击下PPI同比降幅扩大，需求担忧下多数商品价格下滑，关税争端 缓和背景下，风险资产价格好转但商品价格弹性有限。而随着前期政策拉动与"抢出口"需求的逐步透 支，消费品库存、产能等供需压力对核心商品的压制将显现，关税对价格端的扰动加大，且对就业和收 入存在负面传导效应。 反映到债券市场上，资金宽松对短端的利好明确，短端收益率下行空间取决于资金利率的下行幅度。长 端利率方面，货币政策和基本面决定债市走向仍偏乐观，资金和负Carry对收益率曲线下行的约束或逐 步缓解，短期扰动在于中美谈判进展，利率接近前低，市场存在阶段性止盈压力，市场波动或加大，回 调仍是布局机会。收益率曲线有望进一步趋陡。 目前多空因素交织，债市情绪仍较为纠结，货币政策宽松支撑中期做多逻辑，短期关税缓和预期扰动长 端收益率，预期摇摆下市场波动加剧。中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，双方发布 联合声明称撤销惩罚性关税，保留10%的基础对等关税税率，24%的关税将在初始90天内暂停实施，有 利于市场风险情绪进一步好转。 货币政策方面，稳增长诉求下宽货币先行。上周央行降准降息，在关税冲击对出口端的压力初步显现 ...

观察者网消息，中美经贸高层会谈取得成果，双方同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%。 "很明显，（美国总统）特朗普先眨眼了。"当地时间5月12日，美国经济学家拉里·萨默斯接受美国有线电 视新闻网（CNN）节目采访时如此说道。萨默斯曾在克林顿政府时期担任财政部长，并在奥巴马政府时期 担任白宫国家经济委员会主任，目前为哈佛大学教授及名誉校长。 当被问及特朗普和中国谁"眨眼"了时，萨默斯回答："我认为很明显，是特朗普眨眼了。毕竟美国信誓旦旦 地说过，将无限期地实施关税政策。相较之下，中国没有对其政策做出任何重大或显著性的改变。" "有时候，退一步海阔天空，"萨默斯进一步指出，"犯了错，通常最好的做法是改正错误，然后退一步，即 使这会带来一些尴尬。我赞赏美财长贝森特采取的行动，并赞赏他的领导能力。" 据萨默斯在社交媒体X平台发布推文，当天，他接受CNN采访时谈到了中美经贸高层会谈。 萨默斯表示，中美会谈取得成果，对市场来说"可能是一个有效信号，表明特朗普政府正在放弃对美国经 济极具惩罚性的对华关税政策"。他说道，特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国出现了一个相当清晰的模式：关 税承诺增加，市场下跌；有放弃的迹象出现，市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

从中长期来看，黄金在当前全球经济环境中的配置价值显得尤为重要。首先，关税争端的持续性预计将 加大市场的不确定性，且美国面临滞胀的风险未消。第二，全球央行出于对抗美元信用风险的考虑，持 续增持黄金，这一趋势将为未来黄金投资提供支撑。第三，市场对美联储在2025年前进行2-3次降息的 预期，意味着黄金作为不生息资产的吸引力将继续上升。 （转自：ETF炼金师） 在过去一周，黄金市场经历了一系列波动，伦敦现货黄金价格在周末收于3,326美元/盎司，较前一周上 涨2.6%，最高曾触及至3500美元。与此相比，国内AU9999黄金的价格为786元/克，周环比小幅上升 0.7%。与此同时，十年期美债利率上升4个基点，达到4.37%。 近期金价波动的主要因素是市场避险情绪的变化和资金的获利回吐。由于特朗普政府对电影及医药行业 的关税言论，市场在周初出现避险情绪回暖，黄金价格一度重返3400美元以上。然而，随着美国与英国 达成双边贸易协议，市场情绪开始缓和，投资者逐渐选择高位获利了结，导致金价在之后有所回落。人 民币计价的AU9999黄金在触及830元后也下跌至786元附近。 在5月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联 ...

（2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：关注节后巴西大豆清关情况，当前现货偏紧，随着到港大豆集中， 油厂开机恢复，现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段，短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8080 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（20）、天津 3160 元/吨（-140）、 日照 3110 元/吨（10）、东莞 3100 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2194 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收 ...

德国总理默茨：美国总统特朗普也在讨论关税争端对美国经济的损害。 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]