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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the cost story of coal adds fuel to the market. After the gap of the black - series on Tomb - Sweeping Festival is filled, the volatility may increase. The market is mainly driven by futures market funds and sentiment. The base - spread still has opportunities, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage can be rolled. The iron - water output increase strengthens the expectation of improved supply - demand of furnace materials, resulting in a pattern of stronger furnace materials and weaker finished products, compressing the disk profit [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the market intends to expand the range of the third - round increase. The coking coal auction is still hot. The futures market is affected by the news of the National Energy Administration's coal - mine production verification. The subsequent trend has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is trading the supply reduction under the anti - involution logic. The verification of coal over - production by the National Energy Administration may support the cost of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and they will continue to be strong, but the upward space needs to be further observed [2]. - For iron ore, although the market sentiment is boosted by the coal - mine production verification news, the iron ore faces increasing upward pressure. It is not recommended to chase the high. It is not advisable to short on the left - hand side. The steel - mill profit remains high, and the daily average iron - water output in July is expected to remain at a high level. Shorting can be considered when the demand fails to keep up during the peak - season demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On July 22, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3367.00 yuan/ton, 3492.00 yuan/ton, 793.50 yuan/ton, 1752.00 yuan/ton, and 1137.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 107.00 yuan, 96.00 yuan, 22.00 yuan, 129.00 yuan, and 112.50 yuan. The closing prices of the main contracts RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, and JM2509 were 3307.00 yuan/ton, 3477.00 yuan/ton, 823.00 yuan/ton, 1697.50 yuan/ton, and 1048.50 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100.00 yuan, 96.00 yuan, 20.00 yuan, 125.50 yuan, and 77.50 yuan, and the corresponding increases were 3.12%, 2.84%, 2.49%, 7.98%, and 7.98% [1]. - The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, and JM2509 - 2601 were - 60.00 yuan/ton, - 15.00 yuan/ton, 29.50 yuan/ton, - 88.50 yuan/ton, and - 88.50 yuan/ton respectively on July 22 [1]. Spot Market - On July 22, the spot prices of Shanghai thread steel, Tianjin thread steel, Guangzhou thread steel, and Tangshan billet were 3480.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, and 250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, 60.00 yuan, and 50.00 yuan. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3480.00 yuan/ton, 3510.00 yuan/ton, and 3510.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 60.00 yuan [1]. - The base - spreads of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were 3.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, - 286.16 yuan/ton, and - 78.50 yuan/ton respectively on July 22 [1]. Industry Situation - In the steel industry, the iron - water output growth rate has expanded. Among the weekly five - material apparent demands, the building materials are weaker, while the plates can still achieve inventory reduction and month - on - month increase in apparent demand. The disk shows that the hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger than the thread steel, especially in the 10 - contract, which is related to the rapid increase in the thread - steel futures warehouse receipts [2]. - In the coking coal and coke industry, the second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and the market intends to expand the third - round increase. The coking coal auction is hot, and the coal price has risen rapidly. The coke basis is negative, and the port trade quasi - first - grade coke is quoted at 1380 yuan/ton (+40), and the Chen coking coal price index is 1070.8 (+21.1) [2]. - In the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese industry, the market is trading the supply reduction under the anti - involution logic. The verification of coal over - production by the National Energy Administration may support the cost of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and they will continue to be strong, but the upward space needs to be further observed [2]. - In the iron - ore industry, although the market sentiment is boosted by the coal - mine production verification news, the iron ore faces increasing upward pressure. It is not recommended to chase the high. The steel - mill profit remains high, and the daily average iron - water output in July is expected to remain at a high level [2].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel industry is expected to continue its strong performance. The market sentiment has improved due to the supply contraction expectations from policies and the marginal improvement in the industrial supply - demand situation. It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Prices of various steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3320 to 3370 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3413 to 3490 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Costs of steel production like billet and plate billet prices have changed, and the profits of different regions and steel types have generally increased. For instance, the East China hot - rolled coil profit rose from 201 to 281 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 1.1% to 242.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5% to 868.2 tons. Rebar production decreased by 3.5% to 209.1 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 1337.7 tons, while the rebar inventory increased by 0.5% to 543.3 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The daily average building material trading volume increased by 35.6% to 12.8 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.3% to 870.1 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. With the high - level hot - metal production and the expected supply - side policies, it is recommended to hold long positions and cautiously participate in buying the 2509 contract at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore varieties such as warehousing costs and spot prices have increased. For example, the warehousing cost of PB powder rose from 831.5 to 846.9 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 6.1% [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.9% to 2371.2 tons, while the global shipping volume increased by 4.1% to 3109.1 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1% to 242.4 tons, and the weekly average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.0% to 322.7 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly by 0.0% to 13783.86 tons, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.8% to 8822.2 tons [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both the coke and coking coal markets are in an upward trend. For coke, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations and hold long positions. For coking coal, it is also recommended to conduct hedging operations and hold long positions and buy the 09 contract at low prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts such as the 09 and 01 contracts increased by 5.9%. The second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented, and a third - round increase is expected [6]. - **Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts such as the 09 and 01 contracts increased, with the 09 - contract price of coking coal rising by 4.2% [6]. - **Supply and Demand of Coke**: The supply of coke is limited due to the slow resumption of coal mines and the difficulty in increasing production of some loss - making coking enterprises. The demand has increased with the resumption of blast furnaces and the rise in hot - metal output [6]. - **Supply and Demand of Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is in short supply as some coal mines are required to stop production. The demand has increased with the increase in coking plant operations and downstream hot - metal production [6]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventories in coking plants and ports decreased, while those in steel mills increased. Coking coal inventories in mines and ports decreased, while those in downstream enterprises increased [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-22 ⻛险偏好上移 股指期货：温和上攻 股指期权：红利及小盘情绪上方空间更高 国债期货：风险偏好提升压制债市表现 股指期货方面，周一市场温和上攻，沪指稳步站上3550点关口，反内 卷交易延续成为市场主线，其中建材、建筑、钢铁、电新等领涨，反内卷 方向有扩散化的迹象。另外需要注意的是，银行板块近日连续下跌，这一 现象有几种解释路径，其一，沪指破位重要指数关口之后，按照历史经验 外推会呈现成长补涨的格局，其二，景气度交易再起，近年常被提及的哑 铃结构受到挑战，资金集中涌入景气度反转或是景气度快速提升的领域， 使得市值因子的重要度边际下降。当下我们暂时倾向转向后者的可能性， 在政策主线明确之后，资金针对基本面环境纠偏，公募等中长期资金定价 权提升。展望后市，目前仍建议布局IM多单，除了Beta因素之外，不排除 贴水收敛的可能性。 股指期权方面，期权市场成交额53.98亿元，相较前一交易日下降14. 72%，但仍维持近段时间整体的高流动性。情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR多数 品种延续上行，部分品种如沪市300ETF、创业板E ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views Steel - The rebound of ferrous metals since June was due to the production cut of coking coal caused by environmental inspections, the resilient demand during the off - season, and the low inventory. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with the marginal improvement of industrial supply - demand and market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows that off - season demand is resilient, steel mill production remains high, and raw material inventories are in a destocking trend. Later, the inventory may weaken if coking coal production recovers or steel demand declines. Macroscopically, under the expectation of supply - side contraction, the sentiment of commodity buying is positive. The resistance levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the 09 contract of iron ore rose strongly. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore decreased slightly, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, the iron - making water output rebounded significantly, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. The terminal demand shows a strong performance in the off - season. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased rapidly. In the future, the molten iron output in July will remain high, and the steel mill profit will support raw materials. The short - term iron ore will fluctuate strongly. The strategy is to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, the coke futures fluctuated upward, and the first - round spot price increase was implemented. The supply side saw some coal mines resuming production, but the output was difficult to increase due to losses. The demand side witnessed the end of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the resumption of blast furnaces, and a significant increase in molten iron. The inventory of coking plants and ports decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased. Due to the low price, cost push and the downstream steel mills' active replenishment demand are conducive to the future price increase of coke. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward, and the spot price generally increased. The supply side has an expectation of increased supply, but the overall production recovery is slow, and the market is in short supply. The import coal price has a slight rebound, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The demand side shows a slight increase in coking plant operation, a rapid increase in molten iron output, and an increase in the replenishment efforts of steel mills and coking plants. The inventory of coal mines is decreasing, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased from 3162 to 3196 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally decreased, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 41 to 91 [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 7.6 to 209.1, a 3.5% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease. The rebar inventory increased by 2.9 to 543.3, a 0.5% increase [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 0.7 to 9.4, an 8.6% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also increased. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5 yuan/ton, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, and the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease [4] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase. The daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.2 to 322.7, a 1.0% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 1 to 1518, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 - contract price increased by 4 to 1559, a 0.3% increase [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 87.6, a 5.94% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2 to 639.0, a 0.2% increase [6] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 - contract price increased by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase [6] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 36.8 to 929.1, a 4.1% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.2 to 791.1, a 1.04% increase [6]

发布时间：2025-07-21 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 行业基本情况 | | 收盘点位 | 5199.61 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5230.85 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《滞胀交易驱动金属价格上行》 - 2025.07.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.07.12-2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in alumina prices is attributed to factors such as the announcement of a national bauxite index in Guinea, seasonal impacts on bauxite shipments, and a low inventory of alumina warehouse stocks, leading to increased market sentiment and potential price support [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Alumina prices have rebounded significantly, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high, primarily driven by the "anti-involution trading" sentiment and low warehouse inventory levels [2][3]. - Guinea's rainy season is beginning to affect bauxite shipments, with weekly export volumes showing a slight decline, indicating potential supply constraints in the near future [4][5]. - The overall industry inventory remains low, with alumina warehouse stocks dropping to below 20,000 tons, which raises concerns about delivery shortages [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The cost side, particularly from the mining sector, is expected to provide support for alumina prices as supply-demand dynamics shift from surplus to a potential deficit in the latter half of the year [5]. - Current domestic alumina production capacity exceeds 11 million tons, but operational capacity has slightly decreased due to routine maintenance, with a current operating rate of 79.97% [6]. - Future production increases are anticipated from new projects and restarts, with expectations of imported alumina arriving in July, contributing to overall supply growth [6]. Group 3: Price Projections - Short-term price increases for alumina are supported by positive mining expectations and low warehouse stocks, but there are still pressures from ongoing inventory accumulation and potential profit-taking from imports [7]. - The market sentiment suggests limited upward price movement due to global oversupply conditions, although the risk of significant price drops is also considered low due to the current market dynamics [7].

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise, with major indices except for the Sci-Tech 50 showing gains, particularly the CSI 300 which increased by 1.54%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by 0.81% and 0.56% respectively, indicating relatively weaker performance [3][12] - All style indices experienced gains, with the financial style leading at 1.86%, while the growth style saw a significant decline compared to the previous week [3][12] - Both large and mid-cap indices outperformed small-cap indices, with the core asset indices, namely the "Mao" index and "Ning" combination, also showing increases of 1.15% and 2.23% respectively [3][12] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index remained stable, reporting a 7-day moving average of 9.49% as of July 5, down from 9.57% on June 28, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more regular trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased, reflecting a decline in investor enthusiasm, although there was a net inflow trend in financing this week [20][22] Industry Rotation and Dividend Value Tracking - The current market is characterized by "high speed and low intensity" in industry rotation, suggesting a sideways market trend with an average duration of about two months [23][24] - The dividend yield model indicates that pure dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, remain attractive in the context of potential further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts [25][28] Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that A-shares may experience a period of consolidation as key external factors stabilize, with a focus on internal fundamentals [30][32] - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell strategy" that emphasizes both high-dividend stocks in sectors like banking, railways, and utilities, as well as growth opportunities in TMT sectors such as AI applications and computing power chains [5][32]