Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - **EC**: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, amounting to 34,365.0 billion yuan, with the decline rate expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to January-May[1] - In June 2025, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.3% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January-May[1] Group 2: Revenue and Costs - Industrial enterprises' operating revenue grew by 2.5% year-on-year, with a revenue per 100 yuan of assets reaching 73.9 yuan, an increase of 1.0 yuan from January-May[1] - Operating costs increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate still outpacing that of operating revenue, indicating ongoing cost pressures on profitability[1] - The average recovery period for accounts receivable was 69.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days compared to January-May[15] Group 3: Sector Performance - The mining sector's profit share has been declining, with a 30.3% year-on-year decrease in profits, contributing negatively to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises by 5.3 percentage points[8] - Manufacturing profits increased by 4.5% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points compared to January-May, indicating some support for overall profitability[9] - High-tech manufacturing contributed positively to profit growth, adding 1.8 percentage points to the cumulative year-on-year profit growth of industrial enterprises[9] Group 4: Price Factors and Economic Outlook - Price factors are currently the main drag on industrial enterprise profitability, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for production materials showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2%[5] - The Central Financial and Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality, which may help boost industrial product prices in the future[2] - Risks include potential overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact the industrial sector's performance[18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance in the first half of the year, highlighting strong fiscal spending but a general lack of perceived impact on the economy, suggesting a need for targeted policies to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [5][10][34]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength in the First Half - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in the first half of the year was 8.9%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of approximately 3.4% to 5.1% [5][18]. - The fiscal strength observed in the first half is considered the strongest since 2022, with historical comparisons showing varied growth rates from 2018 to 2024 [5][18]. Group 2: Perception of Fiscal Impact - Despite strong fiscal spending, the perceived impact on the economy was limited, attributed to insufficient project construction despite rapid government debt issuance [6][10]. - The net financing of government bonds reached 7.69 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 55.5% progress rate, the highest since 2022 [6][20]. Group 3: Government Debt Structure - The structure of government debt issuance showed a preference for special refinancing bonds (90%) over general bonds and special bonds for project construction, which were lower at 47.5% and 49.1% respectively [7][22]. - The issuance of special bonds for project capital was 191.7 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but significantly lower than the overall growth of special bonds [7][23]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Fiscal expenditure focused on technology and livelihood, with infrastructure spending declining by 5.5% [8][26]. - Public fiscal expenditure growth rates were 9.2% for science and technology, 6.4% for livelihood, and negative for infrastructure [8][26]. Group 5: Credit Expansion and Local Government Actions - Local credit expansion showed a contraction in major provinces, indicating a cautious approach to financing [9][31]. - The reduction in the number of financing platforms was noted, which supports the transformation of these platforms towards more sustainable financing models [9][32]. Group 6: Outlook for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of the year is on incremental policies, with expectations of improved fiscal perception due to new policy tools and project support [10][35]. - Historical patterns suggest that when fiscal revenues fall short, incremental policies are typically introduced to compensate [13][41]. Group 7: June Fiscal Data Review - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue increasing for three consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like transportation and scientific research [15][46]. - Government fund income growth was notably high at 20.8%, primarily due to increased land sales [15][66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in the context of China's economic stability and growth, particularly in light of recent challenges and the need for strategic planning [1][8][10] - The "Four Stabilizations" policy framework focuses on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations as a response to economic pressures, particularly from external factors [3][4][5] - The "2+2+1" policy structure under the "Four Stabilizations" aims to implement short-term measures and medium to long-term policies to support economic recovery and growth [3][6] Group 2 - The significance of the Five-Year Plans in China's development history is highlighted, showcasing their role in guiding economic and social progress since the establishment of the People's Republic of China [8][9] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to prioritize domestic demand and consumer market expansion to mitigate external risks, reflecting a shift in focus towards a more consumption-driven economy [10][11] - The plan will also emphasize the development of new quality productivity, aiming to enhance innovation and competitiveness across various industries, including emerging and traditional sectors [15][16][17] Group 3 - The articles discuss the need for a robust legal environment to support the private economy, particularly through the recently introduced Private Economy Promotion Law, which aims to stabilize market expectations and protect entrepreneurs' rights [24][25] - The importance of aligning public service improvements with technological advancements, such as AI, to enhance the quality of life for citizens is also noted [22][23] - The implementation of major engineering projects within the Five-Year Plans is seen as a critical mechanism for driving economic growth and attracting investment [19][20]

Economic Growth - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, exceeding the target of 5%[1] - Q2 GDP growth is 5.2%, slightly below Q1 and Q4 of the previous year, which were both 5.4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased from -0.8% in Q1 to -1.3% in Q2, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance[1] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports contributed nearly 40% to the increase in industrial added value, with a 4.0% growth in export delivery value in June[2] - The industrial sales rate in June was 94.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[1] Retail Sector - Retail growth slowed to 4.8% in June, primarily due to holiday misalignment and a decline in dining revenue[3] - The dining revenue growth rate in June was only 0.9%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from May, negatively impacting overall retail[4] - National subsidies for retail showed a reduced effect, contributing 1.5 percentage points to retail growth, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Behavior - The proportion of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income in Q2 was 68.6%, lower than 2019 levels by 1.9 percentage points[5] - Urban consumption rates were 63.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2019, while rural consumption rates were 89.2%, up 1.6 percentage points[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, with a 6.6% increase excluding real estate investment[7] - In June, fixed asset investment fell to -0.1% year-on-year, with significant slowdowns in infrastructure and manufacturing investments[7] - The issuance of local special bonds increased in June, reaching 5270.9 billion yuan, but infrastructure investment growth continued to slow[7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in June showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in sales value, marking the first drop below -10% since October of the previous year[8] - New residential prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the lowest since November of the previous year[8] - Expectations for new real estate policies may arise in July-August, focusing on mortgage rate reductions and potential easing of purchase restrictions[8] Policy Outlook - The necessity for additional economic stimulus may decrease due to better-than-expected growth, with potential delays in new policies until external demand weakens significantly[9] - The government may prioritize targeted financial tools and mortgage rate adjustments in response to economic data in July-August[9] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, equity markets initially dipped but later rebounded, indicating resilience in market sentiment[10] - The bond market showed increased optimism, with yields declining as the economic growth trend demonstrated resilience against dual pressures of tariffs and weak demand[11]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

Core Insights - Xiamen achieved a GDP growth of 5.9% in Q1, indicating a strong economic start for the year [1] - From January to May, Xiamen's industrial added value increased by 10%, outperforming the national average by 3.7 percentage points [1] - The city has implemented a series of targeted policies to address key issues faced by businesses and citizens, focusing on restoring and expanding effective demand [1][2] Economic Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.2% year-on-year [1] - Export value rose by 6.2% compared to the previous year, exceeding the provincial average [1] - Industrial investment and construction investment grew by 19.3% and 19.5%, respectively, with key projects progressing ahead of schedule [1] Policy Initiatives - Xiamen is implementing a consumption boost initiative and a "dual attack" strategy on industrial and investment projects [2] - The city has introduced precise foreign trade support policies focusing on export credit insurance and cross-border e-commerce [2] - A new version of the business environment policy has shifted its core concept from "convenient services" to "development services" [2] Support for Enterprises - Xiamen is enhancing support for enterprises to improve competitiveness through diversified market development and brand growth [2] - Specific measures include increasing credit insurance support and promoting green development for businesses [2] - The city plans to establish a performance evaluation mechanism for policies to ensure effective implementation and feedback from businesses and citizens [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has acknowledged a more complex and severe external environment, indicating a weakening global economic growth momentum and increasing trade barriers, while also highlighting domestic challenges such as insufficient demand and persistent low prices [1][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, enhancing the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of these policies, and flexibly managing the implementation pace based on domestic and international economic conditions [3][4]. - The PBOC has shifted its stance on the real estate market from "promoting stabilization" to "continuing to consolidate stability," emphasizing the need to revitalize existing housing and land stocks [3][4]. Interest Rate and Financing - The meeting recommended strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism, aiming to lower overall financing costs [4]. - The PBOC has implemented a comprehensive reduction in various structural policy tool rates, including those for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for carbon reduction and technological innovation [6]. Structural Policy Focus - The meeting emphasized the need to effectively utilize existing policies while actively implementing new policies to stimulate domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate economic growth [6]. - There is a call for more structural tools in monetary policy to support domestic demand expansion and facilitate economic restructuring and industrial upgrading [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, aligning with market expectations [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the recent policy rate cuts by the central bank and the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% [4][12]. - The current LPR levels are seen as adequate for both corporate and personal loan rates, which are already low [7][12]. Banking Sector Insights - Commercial banks are facing pressure on net interest margins, which have decreased to 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, limiting their ability to lower LPR further [7][10]. - The focus for banks is on managing liability costs and optimizing asset structures to stabilize margins [10]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The economic environment suggests that there is no immediate need for further monetary policy easing, with expectations that LPR will remain stable in the short term [9][12]. - The central bank's monetary policy aims to balance supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system, indicating a multi-faceted approach to monetary policy [9][12]. Financing Costs and Policy Measures - The current financing costs for enterprises and residents have significantly decreased, with "expensive financing" no longer being a primary concern [12]. - Future efforts to reduce overall financing costs may focus on lowering non-interest costs such as collateral and service fees rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments [12]. Potential Policy Changes - There is speculation about potential incremental policy measures in the second half of the year, particularly in response to economic conditions and external pressures [15][16]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools is anticipated to stimulate investment, with estimates suggesting that such measures could leverage significant amounts of credit demand [16].