Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: May 8, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,750 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,590 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - Live hog 2507: 13,535 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509: 13,985 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511: 13,605 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2507: trading volume is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 lots from the previous day; open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2509: trading volume is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 lots from the previous day; open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2511: trading volume is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 lots from the previous day; open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - Live hog 2507 basis: 1,465 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509 basis: 1,015 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511 basis: 1,395 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 7 - 9 spread: - 450 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 9 - 11 spread: 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market entered a correction phase, while the commodity market continued to experience fluctuations. Early March saw a continuation of optimistic risk appetite, but by mid-March, the market became more cautious due to earnings season and various disturbances following Trump's administration, leading to a market decline. The market style shifted from small-cap growth to large-cap value, with trading focus diversifying towards sectors like non-ferrous metals, consumer services, and defense [3][14]. Equity Market Performance - The public quantitative strategy performance showed varied results across different indices. For the CSI 300 index, the monthly return was -0.07%, with strict constraint strategies yielding an excess return of 0.57%, SmartBeta strategies at 0.85%, and rotation strategies at 0.70%. The CSI 500 index had a monthly return of -0.04%, with excess returns of 1.39% for strict constraint strategies, 1.82% for SmartBeta, and 1.64% for rotation strategies. The CSI 1000 index saw a monthly return of -0.70%, with excess returns of 1.58%, 2.02%, and 2.45% for the respective strategies [4][17][25]. Private Fund Strategy Performance - In March 2025, the best-performing private fund strategy was the CSI 1000 index strategy with an annualized return of 26.20%. The quantitative stock selection strategy followed with a return of 20.50%, while the CSI 500 index strategy achieved 16.24%. The CSI 300 index strategy lagged with a return of only 0.17%. In the relative value strategy, the convertible bond strategy performed well with a return of 22.67%, while the market-neutral strategy returned 10.22% and the ETF arbitrage strategy returned 3.66%. In the managed futures strategy, the options arbitrage strategy led with a return of 9.31% [5][29][32]. Market Environment Factors - The equity market in March experienced a style shift towards large-cap value, which increased the difficulty for quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns. The volatility in value-growth styles also heightened market instability, impacting the performance of quantitative strategies. Despite a decrease in market volatility and turnover rate, trading volume remained within a "comfortable zone" for quantitative strategies, suggesting a lower likelihood of significant declines in excess returns in the short term [6][30][34]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market in March showed mixed performance influenced by overseas disturbances. The energy sector saw oil prices rise due to new production cuts from OPEC+ and increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Conversely, the black metal prices declined due to unmet domestic demand. Gold prices surged significantly as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties regarding international trade and economic outlooks [14][36]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a complex market environment with shifting styles and varied performance across different strategies. The quantitative strategies face challenges due to increased volatility and changing market dynamics, while certain sectors within the commodity market present potential opportunities for investors [30][34][36].