Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In May 2025, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding expectations of 126,000, but the previous value was revised down to 147,000, indicating potential overstatement of labor market resilience [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [1] - Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points to 0.4% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for May recorded 48.5, below the expected 49.2 and previous 48.7, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 2: Service Sector and Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for May fell to 49.9, below the expected 52 and previous 51.6, marking the first contraction in service sector activity in nearly a year due to weakening demand [2] - The increase in payment prices accelerated as the impact of tariff policies on the economy became more pronounced [2] Group 3: Market Performance - For the week of June 2-6, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.10%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 1.97%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 1.50%, with 8 out of 11 sectors showing gains [2][3] - The communication equipment sector led the gains with an increase of 3.19%, while the consumer staples sector saw a decline of 1.57% [3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The CPI for May is expected to gradually rebound from April, with inflation likely to rise due to price disturbances from tariffs and base effects [4] - Ongoing discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials aim to address trade disputes, which may influence market sentiment and economic conditions [2]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance reflects its desire for clearer insights into fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before making further interest rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation [3][6]. - Changes in fiscal policy, trade tensions, and economic data fluctuations can significantly impact interest rate decisions, prompting the Fed to wait for more data before acting [3][4]. Group 2: Market's Rate Cut Expectations - Despite the Fed's cautious stance leading traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, there remains a market expectation for a rate cut before the end of September, with probabilities slightly above 50% [4][5]. - This expectation reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, anticipating that a slowdown in inflation could lead the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [5][6]. - If inflation slows, the Fed may consider providing more support to the economy through rate cuts; conversely, if inflation remains high, the Fed might keep rates unchanged or even consider further increases [5][6]. - Economic deterioration, such as slowing growth or rising unemployment, could compel the Fed to implement rate cuts or other stimulus measures to stabilize the economy [5].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

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Macroeconomic Overview - The preliminary Markit PMI for April in the US indicates a slowdown in economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 51.2%, below the expected 52.0% and previous 53.5% [1] - The preliminary services PMI for April is 51.4%, lower than the expected 52.6% and previous 54.4% [1] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for April is 50.7%, exceeding the expected 49.0% and previous 50.2% [1] - Durable goods orders in March saw a significant month-on-month increase of 9.2%, far surpassing the expected 2% and previous 0.9% [1] - Excluding defense capital goods orders, durable goods orders increased only by 0.1% [1] - New home sales in March rose by 7.4%, significantly above the expected 1.3% and previous 3.1%, totaling 724,000 units [1] - Existing home sales, however, fell by 5.9% year-on-year, below the expected -2.6% and previous 4.4%, with a total of 4.02 million units [1] Major Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index increased by 1.26% over the week [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index surged by 6.43% during the same period [2][3] - The S&P 500 Index rose by 4.59%, with 10 out of 11 sectors showing gains, led by Information Technology at 7.93% [2][3] Market Sentiment and Trends - The US stock market experienced a rebound last week, with a decline in gold prices [2] - President Trump indicated he would not dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, and there are signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [2] - The VIX fear index temporarily fell to 25, reflecting reduced market anxiety [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with a 10% probability of a cut in May and an expected 3.50 cuts in 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the production disruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to an increase in global prices for copper, cobalt, and tin. The DRC government announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, and mining operations in the Bisie tin mine were halted due to conflict, significantly impacting metal prices [2] - The report notes that the aluminum price is supported by seasonal demand and ongoing inventory depletion, with the current profit margin for the electrolytic aluminum industry around 2800 RMB/ton [3] - Gold prices have surged above 3000 USD/oz due to inflation concerns and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector rose by 3.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points [17] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by seasonal demand and inventory depletion, with a stable production environment and a profit margin of 2800 RMB/ton [3][25] (b) Copper - Copper prices continue to rise, driven by stable demand and tight supply conditions, with domestic copper inventories decreasing [3][39] (c) Tin - Tin prices have surged due to the suspension of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC, which has been affected by conflict [2][21] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Gold - Gold prices have reached 3000 USD/oz, influenced by inflation data and tariff uncertainties, with expectations of continued support from central bank purchases [3][40] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking (a) Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to decline due to cost pressures [5][12] 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly in the DRC, which is a significant contributor to global metal supply [2][3]