1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "Oscillation". There are no specific ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Coking coal and coke present a situation where short - term improvement and long - term pressure coexist. The short - term marginal situation has improved due to inventory reduction and supply disruptions, but the medium - and long - term pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1,379.0 yuan/ton, up 26.5 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.96%. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 7.6 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 0.95%. The futures prices showed a range - bound oscillation influenced by the marginal improvement in spot supply and demand [1][5]. Supply - This week, the total daily average output of steel mill coking and independent coking was 112.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of the full sample of independent coking enterprises was 73.57%, a decrease of 0.39%; the daily average coke output was 64.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons. For the 247 steel mill samples, the daily average coke output was 47.39 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.39%, an increase of 0.27% [1][24][27]. Demand - According to Mysteel statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills reached 83.82%, an increase of 0.41% from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21% from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output was 242.18 million tons, an increase of 0.57 million tons from last week [1][37]. Inventory - According to Mysteel research data, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634.2 million tons this period, a decrease of 8.64 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full sample was 1,006.0 million tons, a decrease of 21.25 million tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7,747 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full - caliber was 3,391.95 million tons, a decrease of 85.63 million tons from last week [2][38].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

统计库存去化，工业硅盘面企稳震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 2025-06-19，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于7385元/吨，最后收于7470元/吨，较前一日结算变化（35） 元/吨，变化（0.47）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓310357手，2025-06-19仓单总数为55179手，较前一日变化 -441手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计SMM统计6月19日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.9万吨，较上周环比减少1.3万吨。其中社会普通仓库 13.1万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.8万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少1.1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10200-10800（-150）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC报价10200-10800 元/吨，均价较上周再度大幅下 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The supply pressure of PVC remains high due to limited new maintenance, slight decline in overall operating load, and expected new production capacity in June - July. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, with the possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The cost support is not strong, and the price is driven up by market sentiment. It is recommended to take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term [3][4]. - Caustic Soda: The overall operating rate of caustic soda is at a high level, and the supply pressure will increase with expected new production capacity in June - July. The demand from the alumina sector has a slight recovery, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The short - term price follows the basis repair logic, but the inventory is high, and the comprehensive profit has room for compression. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [3][4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4900 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+9), and the South China basis is - 50 yuan/ton (-11) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit is - 8.3 US dollars/ton (-4.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory is 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 76.74% (-0.09%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2288 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 306 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 900.3 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 267.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1284.03 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 36.65 tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.85 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.20% (+0.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 80.80% (+0.24%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Limited new maintenance, slightly lower overall operating load, high supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Weak domestic demand, slow inventory depletion rate, and possible inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - Cost: Weak cost support [3]. - Price: Driven up by market sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: High overall operating rate, increasing supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Slight recovery in alumina demand, weak non - aluminum demand, and continuous negative feedback from the demand side [3]. - Price: Short - term basis repair logic, but high inventory and lack of upward driving force [3]. Strategy - PVC: Take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term. Pay attention to export dynamics and new production progress [4]. - Caustic Soda: Take a cautious and bearish view, as the inventory is high and the comprehensive profit has room for compression [4].

热轧卷板周度数据（20250620） 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 高炉产能利用率（%） 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 88 90 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 冷轧卷板周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 250 270 290 310 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 热轧卷板厂内库存 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 热轧卷板社会库存 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热轧卷板供需格局有所好转，库存再度去化，板材钢厂 生产趋稳，热卷周产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][9][33] Core Viewpoints - Sales area and amount have shown a continued decline, with the sales area in May decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year and the sales amount decreasing by 6% [5][11] - The decline in funds available to real estate companies has continued to expand, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% from January to May 2025 [6][20] - Real estate development investment has shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% from January to May 2025 [7][21] - Land transaction area growth has slowed, but transaction amounts have maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 34% in transaction amounts from January to May 2025 [8][26] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 353 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][11] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 3.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [5][11] Funding Sources - The funds available to real estate companies saw a significant decline, with a single-month decrease of 10.1% in May 2025, marking the largest drop of the year [6][20] - Personal mortgage loans decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while domestic loans turned negative with a decrease of 1.7% [6][20] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 was down 10.7% year-on-year, with a single-month decrease of 12% in May [7][21] - New construction area decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, while the construction area showed a slight improvement [7][21] Land Transactions - The supply and transaction area of residential land in 100 major cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, while transaction amounts increased by 5% [8][26] - The average transaction premium rate in May was 7.4%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from April [8][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, as well as top intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions [9][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]

库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 期货和现货价格 品种 6月12日 6月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 原木2507 765.0 0.0 765.0 0.00% 原木2509 783.5 784.5 -1.0 -0.13% -2.0 -0.25% 原木2511 788.0 790.0 7-9价差 -18.5 -19.5 1.0 9-11价差 -4.5 -5.5 1.0 2.0 7-11价差 -25.0 -23.0 07合约基差 -25.0 -10.0 -15.0 09合约基差 -43.5 -34.5 -9.0 元/立方米 11合约基差 -40.0 -8.0 -48.0 -10 日照港3.9A小辐射松 720.0 -1.39% 710.0 日照港3.9A中辐射松 740 750 -10 -1.33% 日照港3.9A大辐射松 830 0 0.00% 830 -1.35% 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 730 -10 740 -1.30% 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 760 770 -10 太仓港 4A 大辐射松 0 0.00% 800 800 日照港云杉11.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, the market may maintain range - bound operation, with a current outlook of "Oscillating" [4] - **Protein Meal**: The outlook is "Oscillating". The spot is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis is expected to remain weak [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [4][6] - **Pigs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly", with near - term contracts being weaker and far - term contracts being stronger [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The outlook is that the downward trend may continue, with a current situation of "Oscillating" [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It should be treated weakly, with an outlook of "Oscillating" [8][9] - **Cotton**: Short - term "Oscillating", long - term "Oscillating Weakly" [9] - **Sugar**: Long - term, there is a downward drive; short - term, "Oscillating Weakly" [10] - **Pulp**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [10] - **Logs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly" [11][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, such as pigs with high inventory weights and increasing supply in the third quarter, and sugar with an expected increase in supply in the new season. Some products are affected by weather, trade policies, and other factors, like oils and fats being influenced by trade policies and overseas biodiesel policies, and rubber being affected by macro - sentiment and African tariff policies [2][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting is nearing completion, and the growth is good. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. The short - term palm oil production increase pressure may decrease marginally. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import volume may decrease. In the medium term, the market may range - bound, and currently, the sentiment has weakened [4] - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean price is expected to range - bound. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, the basis is weak, and the futures follow the international market. Oil mills can sell short on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy the basis contract or fix the price on dips [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures are weak. The wheat policy has affected the market sentiment. The import of grains is tightening, and the inventory is expected to decrease, but the continuous sharp rise is difficult to sustain [4][6] - **Pigs**: The current inventory weight is high, and the short - term price is under pressure. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The rebound has ended, and the price has dropped. The macro - sentiment support has weakened, and the tariff policy may have a negative impact. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the downward trend may continue [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose, remaining weak. The BR fundamentals are neutral, and the butadiene demand is weak, but there may be short - term support [8][9] - **Cotton**: The new - crop production is expected to increase. The inventory is low, which may support the near - term contracts. The long - term price is under pressure due to the expected increase in production [9] - **Sugar**: The new season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward drive. The current price is oscillating weakly [10] - **Pulp**: The futures price is falling, and it is more likely to break below the platform. The supply and demand are weak, and the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline [10] - **Logs**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures are weak. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory removal has pressure [11][13] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][34][47][63][72][105][117][132]

Z0019556 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 期货和现货价格 | NIXTHANNIA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月10日 | 6669 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 765.0 | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.78% | | | 原木2509 | 784.5 | 785.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 790.0 | 790.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -19.5 | -14.5 | -5.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -0.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -25.0 | -19.5 | -5.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -15.0 | -21.0 | 6.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -35.5 | 1.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -40.0 | -40.5 | 0.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日 ...