1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of lithium carbonate is being reduced, and the purchasing willingness is increasing, so there may be support at the lower level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 163,220 yuan, the trading volume is 431,256 lots, and the open interest is 443,942 lots [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 164,400 yuan, the trading volume is 103,578 lots, and the open interest is 130,744 lots [1] - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2605 is -4,220 yuan; the basis of spot - 2607 is -5,400 yuan; the basis of 2605 - 2607 is -1,180 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan; the difference between spot and CIF is 43,998 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,060 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,935 yuan [1] - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 154,850 yuan [1] - The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided, as well as the prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and electrolyte [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 160,260 yuan/ton, down 5,337 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) is 35,750 yuan [2] 3.3 Production and Inventory - This week, the lithium carbonate production is 22,605 tons, an increase of 70 tons from last week; the industry inventory is 109,679 tons, achieving a de - stocking of 263 tons from last week [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Report Date: January 16, 2026 - Report Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Methanol futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and range-bound in the medium term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream开工 being the three key variables [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed better. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. - Glass has weakened with consecutive negative daily - level lines, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one [16]. - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market 3.1.1 Reasons for Price Decline - Demand is in the off - season, and some downstream MTO devices plan to stop or reduce production due to compressed profits, resulting in weak procurement willingness [3]. - High inventory suppresses prices, with port inventory reaching about 153.72 tons in early January and large shipment pressure on inland factories [3]. - There is a callback in capital sentiment, as the chemical sector has collectively corrected after a rise, and capital has taken profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations [3]. 3.1.2 Future Trend Judgment - Short - term (1 - 2 weeks): There is support at 2250 - 2260 yuan/ton (MA10 and the previous intensive trading area) and resistance at 2320 yuan/ton (the upper Bollinger Band). If the port inventory reduction accelerates, the price may rebound due to a significant reduction in Iranian imports in January (expected to drop from 135 tons to 78 tons) and stable coal prices [4]. 3.1.3 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to try to go long on dips, operate with a light position, and take profits in batches [6]. 3.2 Other Market Technical Analysis 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. 3.2.2 Gold - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. 3.2.4 Glass - Technically, the daily - level lines have been negative consecutively, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and the inventory has also been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [16][17]. 3.2.5 Paper Pulp - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, recent changes include the halt of the further rise of broad - leaf pulp (maintaining around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The startup of Hengam's 1.1 million tons/year urea plant has been delayed due to nationwide protests and their political implications, impacting the urea supply chain [1]. Industry Insights - As of January 14, the price of small granular urea in Shandong is quoted at 1710-1740 RMB/ton, while medium granular urea from Shandong Hualu Hengsheng is priced at 1730 RMB/ton [1]. - The daily production of urea in the industry is reported at 199,400 tons, showing a decrease of 2,600 tons day-on-day, but there are expectations for supply improvement as gas companies are anticipated to resume production [1]. Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures suggests that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, and with expectations of a recovery in operations by the end of January, bearish expectations for urea fundamentals are imminent, recommending profit-taking on high prices [2]. - Guantong Futures indicates that in the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, the market is stabilizing after previous emotional fluctuations, with prices supported by continuous inventory depletion; urea is expected to consolidate in the short term while maintaining a strong outlook in the medium to long term [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side still has a boost, and attention should be paid to the implementation process of maintenance. The market sentiment has improved, driving the prices of PE and PP to continue to rebound, but the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of both is limited. The short - term rebound sustainability of PP depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the rebound drive of PE may weaken after the sentiment fades [1][3][4] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6,766 yuan/ton (+29), and that of the PP main contract was 6,545 yuan/ton (-15). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,670 yuan/ton (+90) and 6,750 yuan/ton (+100) respectively, while PP spot price in East China was 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -96 yuan/ton (+61), in East China was -16 yuan/ton (+71), and PP basis in East China was -295 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate was 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 104.8 yuan/ton (+17.2), PP oil - based production profit was -535.2 yuan/ton (+17.2), and PDH - based PP production profit was -722.0 yuan/ton (+53.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 160.2 yuan/ton (+58.7), PP import profit was -365.7 yuan/ton (-33.2), and PP export profit was -36.5 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film operating rate was 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The bottom - rebound of oil prices has strengthened cost support. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, it is not a substantial reversal. The supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in low - cost imported goods and the return of some devices to produce standard products. The demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure exists under high supply [3] - **PP**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and the supply - side reduction expectation and cost support have boosted prices. The supply pressure has been relieved in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the short - term rebound sustainability depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. Pay attention to the upstream maintenance dynamics [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations and regulatory changes, impacting both short-term and long-term price trends. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract opened at 168,000 CNY/ton and closed at 166,980 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 7.44% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, with an open interest of 460,281 lots, compared to 506,702 lots the previous day [2][10]. - The current basis is -9,420 CNY/ton, indicating a difference between the average spot price and futures [2][10]. - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are quoted between 155,000 and 164,000 CNY/ton, and for industrial-grade lithium carbonate between 152,000 and 160,000 CNY/ton, both increasing by 7,500 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [3][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The exchange has implemented new regulations to limit speculative trading, including a cap on daily opening positions for certain contracts to 400 lots, effective January 15, 2026 [3][11]. - Transaction fees for specific lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount starting January 15, 2026 [3][11]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - Current spot inventory stands at 109,942 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 337 tons. Smelter inventory is at 18,382 tons (+715 tons), while downstream inventory is at 36,540 tons (-2,458 tons) [4][12]. - The inventory trend indicates a potential turning point, necessitating close monitoring of actual downstream consumption [4][12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is heavily influenced by news and exhibits signs of excessive speculation. The pace of inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, suggesting a need for caution regarding potential price corrections [5][13]. - Factors influencing the market include sustained demand from the consumption side, unexpected disturbances in the mining sector, and changes in macroeconomic sentiment and position adjustments [8][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory with a Weakening Tendency [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - The resumption of production and restocking support the upward oscillation of coking coal and coke; the speculative demand for glass and soda ash increases, leading to oscillatory movements [1] - Market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, with alloy prices rising slightly [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated yesterday, with the spot price slightly adjusted by some manufacturers. The supply - demand contradiction has eased due to production line cold - repairs and increased consumer and speculative demand. The progress of cold - repairs and the sustainability of speculative demand should be monitored [1] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated and ended up rising. Short - term inventory reduction eases supply pressure, but long - term supply pressure remains due to increasing production capacity and limited demand from cold - repaired float glass production lines. Speculative demand provides short - term price support [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: Geopolitical instability and coal news have boosted market sentiment, driving up alloy futures prices. The fundamentals have improved, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. Manganese ore prices support the silicomanganese price [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures perform well. The spot market is stable with strong cautious sentiment. Fundamentals are controllable, but inventory has increased due to slowed downstream procurement. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. The impact of differential electricity price policies is limited [3] Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillatory [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillatory with a weakening tendency [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillatory [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillatory [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 real estate market outlook is focused on identifying evidence of a "stable bottom" rather than merely predicting price fluctuations, with significant implications for the financial market and macroeconomy [1] Policy Direction - The central economic work conference at the end of 2025 shifted its policy focus from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing the real estate market," emphasizing three core directions: "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [2] - Financial regulatory bodies are promoting the inclusion of housing project loans in a whitelist, with over 3 trillion yuan approved by the end of November 2025 [2] Market Stability - The policy focus for 2026 is on "breaking the cycle" and structural optimization, moving from a total shortage to a basic balance in the real estate market, addressing the upgrade in residents' demand from "availability" to "quality" [5] - Institutions generally believe that the 2026 real estate market will not experience a "V-shaped reversal," but rather a trend of "overall stability with continued differentiation" [7] Evidence Chain for Market Bottom - The capital market assesses the sustainability of the market bottom through a complete evidence chain of "transaction volume - inventory - credit - price," with transaction volume being a primary observation point [9] - The current market is in a phase of stabilizing transaction volume declines, with institutions tracking key cities' transaction rhythms and the effectiveness of loan rate and down payment adjustments [11] Inventory and Credit Factors - The efficiency of inventory reduction is crucial for determining the thickness of the market bottom, with concerns about local fiscal pressures and execution mechanisms potentially hindering progress [13] - Positive signals are emerging, with a significant reduction in narrow inventory by 42.85 million square meters since the beginning of 2025, alleviating short-term inventory pressure [15] Price Expectations - Price predictions focus on structural differences rather than national averages, with attention on the resilience of core urban areas and the structural support from quality new homes [15] - The mainland market is expected to see new home prices outperforming second-hand homes, with increasing disparities between cities [17] Variables Influencing Recovery - Despite a consensus on "stability," different institutions have varying estimates for core indicators due to differing assumptions about three key variables: policy strength, implementation efficiency, and recovery models [19][21] - The uncertainty of policy strength is a primary concern, with expectations that confidence recovery will take time, leading to continued pressure on investment and sales in 2026 [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Winbond Electronics has shown a positive trend in its financial performance, with significant revenue growth in December 2025 compared to previous months and the same period last year [1][3] - The consolidated revenue for December 2025 reached NT$26.32 billion, marking a 7.7% increase from NT$24.44 billion in November and a substantial 44.9% increase year-over-year [1] - The total consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter was NT$77.33 billion, reflecting a decline of over 5% from the third quarter and a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - For the full year of 2025, the consolidated revenue amounted to NT$288.8 billion, representing an 11.6% year-on-year growth [1] - Inventory levels decreased to approximately NT$101 billion in the third quarter, down from NT$121 billion in the second quarter, indicating ongoing inventory reduction which may support future gross margin recovery [1] - The operational outlook for Winbond is optimistic due to the exit of major international competitors from the market and a rebound in demand from the automotive and industrial control sectors [3] Group 3 - NOR Flash prices are expected to continue rising in the first half of the year, providing Winbond with an opportunity to achieve profitability [3] - The transition of SLC NAND production from 36nm to 19nm is anticipated to lower unit costs [3] - The exit of international manufacturers from the MLC NAND market is expected to enhance Winbond's shipping opportunities in eMMC and related applications [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the upward price transmission effects of coking coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. The risk - control measure of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased the trading threshold and dampened market sentiment. Inventory backlog and supply - side pressure may be the reasons for the high - price transactions being scarce and the price decline on that day [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 9,050 yuan per ton and closed at 8,980 yuan per ton, a change of 95 yuan per ton (1.07%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 244,734 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 6, 2026, was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan per ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan per ton. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan per ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan per ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 557,000 tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction reduced short - term supply pressure and supported price increases. The weekly output of organic silicon enterprises changed little. Against the background of emission reduction and price support, organic silicon monomer enterprises began to gradually reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight decline [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 59,400 yuan per ton and closing at 58,300 yuan per ton, a change of - 2.13% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 67,800 lots (72,353 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 20,581 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 57.00 yuan per kilogram, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan per kilogram. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a change of 0.90% month - on - month, silicon wafer inventory was 23.19 GW, a change of 6.92% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a change of - 5.10% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.18 GW, a change of - 1.45% month - on - month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.38 yuan per piece, N - type 210mm was 1.68 yuan per piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.48 yuan per piece [4]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan per watt; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan per watt; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan per watt; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan per watt; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan per watt; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan per watt [4][5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan per watt, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan per watt, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan per watt, and N - type was 0.70 - 0.72 yuan per watt [5]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].