Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market has been rebounding due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. The short - term supply - demand situation is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, after the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price. It is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 81,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 81,640 yuan/ton, a 0.69% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 729,307 lots, and the open interest was 488,803 lots, compared with 483,478 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,335 lots, a decrease of 404 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,900 - 80,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,700 - 76,900 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, a change of 13 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' operating rates are continuously rising, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy - storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Strategy - The futures market has been rebounding recently due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. Currently, the peak consumption season provides some support, and the short - term supply - demand situation is good with continuous inventory reduction, which supports the market. After the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, and it is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. It is expected that the cell production schedule in November will increase month - on - month, and the cathode material production schedule will remain flat or slightly decrease month - on - month. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices when appropriate [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: No relevant strategy provided. - Cross - commodity: No relevant strategy provided. - Spot - futures: No relevant strategy provided. - Options: No relevant strategy provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1700 yuan for the first time, indicating significant pressure on Guizhou Moutai amid a broader industry downturn [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1690 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2220 yuan [1][2]. - The retail price of Feitian Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend since June 2025, with significant drops occurring at various points throughout the year [4][6]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan, both representing the lowest growth rates in a decade [2][6]. - The company is facing challenges in maintaining growth amid a declining price environment and increasing inventory levels [7][8]. Industry Context - The overall white liquor industry is experiencing high inventory levels and weak demand, with a reported 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays [6][8]. - The industry has seen a reduction in the number of large-scale white liquor enterprises, with over 100 companies exiting the market, leading to increased concentration [8]. Strategic Changes - Guizhou Moutai has undergone multiple leadership changes, with the recent appointment of Chen Hua as chairman, marking the fourth change in five years [2][16]. - The company has attempted various strategies to stabilize prices, including limiting supply to e-commerce and wholesale markets, but these efforts have been undermined by external pressures and internal strategic shifts [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The price decline of Feitian Moutai reflects a broader trend of price inversion affecting 60% of white liquor companies, with nearly 60% reporting reduced operating profits [8][9]. - The high inventory levels and price inversions are leading to a structural adjustment in the industry, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [7][10].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_StockAndRank] 晋控煤业（601001） 投资评级 上次评级 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 库存去化&煤价回升，业绩有望趋稳向好 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 27 日，晋控煤业发布三季度报告，2025 年前三季度公 司实现营业收入 93.25 亿元，同比下降 16.99%；实现归母净利润 12.77 亿 元，同比下降 40.65%。经营活动现金流量净额 15.11 亿元，同比下降 58 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.6% in Q3 2025, with a net profit decrease of 28.7%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue decreased by 13.8% to 1.63 billion yuan, and the net profit dropped by 45.5% to 160 million yuan [1][2]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and has shown improved cash flow performance, with a net operating cash flow of 400 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 540 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.4%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 33%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 3.5% [1]. - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 53.5%, with a sales expense ratio of 35.1% [1][2]. Business Segments - The direct retail and e-commerce segments are expected to continue facing challenges, while e-commerce may show growth due to new product launches and increased marketing efforts [1]. - The franchise business has been in a destocking phase, with a 43% revenue decline in H1 2025 and a net closure of 59 stores [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a 32% decline in performance for the full year 2025, with projected revenue of 2.687 billion yuan and a net profit of 371 million yuan [2][3]. - The company aims to improve its franchise business performance in 2026 as inventory health improves [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Oct 20 - Oct 24), PVC prices oscillated at a low level, with the weekly line turning positive and ending a four - week losing streak. The market is expected to continue its low - level oscillation in the future. The fundamentals remain in a pattern of high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and weak demand, with limited upside drivers. However, due to the low absolute price and the strengthening of raw material prices, the downside space is extremely limited. The current position volume is at a high level for the same period, so attention should be paid to capital dynamics [3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Review - This week, PVC prices oscillated at a low level. It opened 8 points higher at the weekly low of 4696 on Monday, then rose to 4746 and oscillated downward. It hit the weekly low of 4670 on Tuesday night and then rebounded, reaching the weekly high of 4749 on Friday night and finally closing at 4708, up 20 points or 0.3% from last week. The amplitude for the whole week was 79 points. As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4708 yuan/ton, and the main position volume was 1.23 million lots [3][8][11]. - As of Friday, the Changzhou basis of PVC was - 108 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 120,000 lots. The V1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 230 yuan/ton [14][17]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1), with the capacity utilization rate at 77%. The cumulative production from week 1 to week 43 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. It is predicted that the supply will increase next week as the start - up of PVC enterprises will rise and the maintenance enterprises will gradually resume production. However, the start - up of downstream enterprises will remain low, and export is expected to decline, so the overall supply - demand gap is expected to widen [20]. Real Estate - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%, - 9.4%, - 15.3%, and - 5.5% respectively. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand. In September 2025, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.84 million square meters [23][26]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream start - up rate was 49%, and it has been slowly increasing after the holiday. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the apparent consumption in September being 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. Exports - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (an increase of 980,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India). The export market continues the trend of "trading volume with price", and the weekly order signing increased month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 3.14 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%), and the export volume in September was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 3%) [32][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons), and the inventory has been accelerating to decline for two consecutive weeks after the holiday. The upstream enterprises' pre - sales volume was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8). The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%), remaining stable [41][44]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 723 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support. Currently, the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration continues to be compressed [47][50]. Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the low valuation of the absolute price in the short term, participate in the rebound market with a light position according to capital dynamics. Pay attention to the range of [4650, 4850] for the V2601 contract. - Hedging: As the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market when the price is high [5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate prices have been rising, with futures breaking the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, driven by strong demand and accelerated inventory depletion [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement - As of October 24, lithium carbonate futures closed at 75,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.81%, while spot prices rose for six consecutive days, reaching 75,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.8% [1] - The recent price surge is attributed to robust demand from both the energy storage and automotive sectors, with a significant year-on-year increase in the production of cathode materials [1][3] Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been in a de-stocking phase, with weekly inventory reported at 130,400 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from the previous week [2] - The current inventory depletion rate is exceeding seasonal norms, indicating strong demand and optimistic market expectations for future demand [2][3] Group 3: Demand Insights - The demand for new energy electric vehicles and energy storage has surpassed expectations, with domestic sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 35% year-on-year in the first nine months [3] - The energy storage market has also seen a significant uptick, with overseas orders for energy storage systems increasing by nearly 132% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the current high inventory levels, the monthly demand from downstream industries is approaching 120,000 tons, suggesting that the market can sustain higher prices [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations around the 80,000 yuan/ton mark are seen as a normal adjustment, with potential for further increases if inventory continues to deplete and demand remains strong [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

Report Summary Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 77,140 yuan/ton and closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, with a 4.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 490,920 lots, and the open interest was 419,147 lots, compared to 353,231 lots the previous day. The current basis is -3,520 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,759 lots, a change of -260 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 74,000 - 75,600 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,950 - 73,150 yuan/ton, also a change of 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously increasing, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - The weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate link increased slightly. The recent consumer side has strong support [2]. Core View - The recent rebound of the futures market is mainly affected by continuous inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumer support. Currently, there is some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the market. After the recent continuous rise of the market, the futures market has a large premium over the spot. It is expected that the willingness of upstream hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may change from reduction to accumulation, and the market may decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. If the market continues to rebound, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4]