Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the styrene market is experiencing a weak downward trend, with futures prices showing fluctuations and a decline of approximately 2.33% [1][2] - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the decline in crude oil prices and the stable supply-demand structure for styrene may prevent significant price increases, although there are no signs of weakening demand [2] - Newhu Futures reports that the resumption of petrochemical facilities in Lianyungang and Dongming will increase supply, leading to a slight decrease in spot prices and a weakening basis [2] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures notes a planned short shutdown of the Liaoning Baolai facility for 10 days, which may tighten near-term supply [3] - The demand side shows an increase in operating rates for EPS and PS, while ABS profits are declining, leading to reduced output from marginal facilities [3] - Despite high port inventories for styrene, the market remains cautious about liquidity risks, with active replenishment observed in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a period of price stability, with fluctuations in production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak in the off-season [3][4]. Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The production forecast for December is 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The 300 series output is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, down 4.4% month-on-month and down 7.6% year-on-year [2]. - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, and some companies may arrange for early annual maintenance due to loss pressures [2]. Inventory - Social inventory reduction is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2]. - As of December 5, the social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2]. - On December 8, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 61,556 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,442 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent price increases from steel mills and the transfer of inventory pressure to agents and traders [3]. - The nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders, while Indonesian domestic benchmark prices have decreased by $0.52 to $0.91 per wet ton [3]. - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (including tax), with the market's bargaining range adjusted upwards, and iron mills' profit losses have somewhat recovered [3]. - Demand remains weak in the off-season, with limited order releases in downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction decoration, leading to a general reliance on just-in-time inventory [3]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of adjustment within the range of 12,400 to 12,800 yuan [4]. - Overall, while macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing and supply pressures are easing, weak demand in the off-season and insufficient inventory reduction are significant challenges [3].

【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 10.30 元/桶，跌幅 2.26%，报 446.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 58.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.34%，报 2418.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 52.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.70%，报 3014.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 1.91 百万桶至 205.87 百万桶，环比去库 0.92%； 汽油商业库存累库 2.03 百万桶至 87.33 百万桶，环比累库 2.38%；柴油商业库存去库 1.13 百 万桶至 90.57 百万桶，环比去库 1.23%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.90 百万桶至 177.90 百万 桶，环比累库 0.51%。 能源化工日报 2025-12-10 2025/12/10 原油 能源化工组 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我 ...

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/9 | 指标 | | 12月8日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 110 | | 1600 | ここここ 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | - -- -- 19/20 - -- -- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | ===== 21/22 - 25/26 | | | 天津 日照 | 50 -10 | | 1200 800 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 10 | -14 | -400 | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | | | 东莞 | - ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 尿素：仓单增量明显，弱势运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,646 | 1,673 | -27 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,651 | 1,682 | -31 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 216,711 | 110,200 | 106511 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 167,074 | 200,353 | -33279 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 11,526 | 10,485 | 1041 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 715,690 | 370,685 | 345005 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | 4 4 | 4 7 | - 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -86 | -113 | 2 7 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy**: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...

【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月4日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12700元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12650元/吨，日环比持平；基差445元/吨，日环比上涨40元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12300-12700 【短期观点】震荡调整 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【原料】矿端消持稳为主，招标落地市场相对平静。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主；北部 矿山尚未开启新招标；印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，主流内贸升水维持 +26。镍铁价格区间继续下移，下游主流钢厂镍铁招标新低下跌至880元/镍(舱底含税)，铁厂生产积极 性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。不锈钢低迷氛围间接影响铬铁市场走弱，铬铁供应压力加大，叠 加铬矿价格走跌， ...