Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 82 yuan, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated financial statement clearing, with high dividends providing support. The report highlights a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 35.3% and a net profit decrease of 45.3% [7][8]. - The management is focusing on practical clearing and inventory turnover, with expectations for gradual stabilization in the domestic market and continued adjustments in the external market [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to decline from 28,876 million yuan in 2024 to 18,243 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to drop from 6,673 million yuan in 2024 to 3,504 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 47.5% decline [3][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025, down from the previous estimate of 3.71 yuan [7][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 30 in 2025, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at around 2.1 [3][12]. Market Dynamics - **Sales Performance**: - The company reported a significant drop in sales, with a 43.7% decline in Q2 revenue compared to the previous year. The decline in revenue is attributed to both domestic and external market pressures [7][8]. - **Inventory Management**: - The report indicates that the company is actively managing inventory levels, with a focus on reducing stock in the domestic market while facing challenges in external markets [7][8]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a cash dividend of 7 billion yuan, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 6.6%, which is seen as a supportive factor for investors [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, benefiting leading companies with significant scale advantages and cost efficiencies [8] - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention [3] - The consumption electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The phosphorous chemical sector is tightening due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5] - The vitamin market is facing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to BASF's force majeure [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the ChiNext Index increased by 8.58%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.37% [14] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.16%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.46% [15] Key Industry Dynamics - Covestro has cut its TDI supply to the Chinese market by 15%, exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's subsidiaries are merging to optimize management and improve operational efficiency [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4] - **Phosphorous Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental regulations and rising demand from new energy sectors suggest a tightening market [5] - **Fluorine Chemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants supports stable profitability [5] - **Textile Sector**: Polyester filament inventory depletion is expected to benefit companies like Tongkun and New Fengming [5] Sub-industry Performance - The polyurethane sector is seeing stable prices for pure MDI and a slight decline for polymer MDI [27][32] - The tire industry shows a mixed performance with full steel tire production increasing while semi-steel tire production is declining [47][50] - The pesticide market is experiencing price fluctuations, with glyphosate prices rising slightly [52] Price Trends - The average price of urea is reported at 1762.6 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.74% [60] - The price of phosphoric acid remains stable, with diammonium phosphate at 3999.38 RMB/ton [64] - The price of vitamins A and E remains unchanged at 64 RMB/kg and 67.5 RMB/kg respectively [76][77]

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber futures market is experiencing a decline in prices, with the main contract closing at 6338.00 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [1] Market Summary - As of August 13, the number of short fiber futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 5753 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] - The PF spot market prices are stable, with trading focus maintaining a similar level. The basis quotes range from 09-30 to 09+170, with specific sources quoting prices such as Zhonglei at 09+170 and Yida at 09+140 [2] - As of August 7, the inventory of polyester short fibers in Chinese factories is 7.78 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous period, while physical inventory stands at 15.10 days, down 0.25 days [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures notes that the weakening of the sector is leading to lower short fiber prices, with terminal orders remaining average. Although short fiber production has slightly rebounded, negative feedback from the terminal persists, indicating limited accumulation of short fiber inventory [3] - Southwest Futures highlights that short-term short fiber supply remains at a high level, with demand showing some improvement. The supply-demand imbalance is not significant, and short-term prices may fluctuate with costs, emphasizing the need to monitor risk and macro policy adjustments [3]

得益于国内甲醇港口库存去化预期增强，同时下游需求有望稳步改善，基本面利多因素提振多头主力推 涨期价，空头主力自知不敌，主动撤退。上周，国内甲醇2101合约呈现放量减仓上行走势，期价再创今 年3月以来的新高2058元/吨。 近一周，甲醇期货2101合约持仓量呈现先增后减态势。其中，多空前20名席位均显著减仓。数据显示， 多头前20名席位的持仓量从8月28日的627620手减少至9月4日的621026手，累计减少6594手;空头前20名 席位的持仓量从8月28日的819244手减少至9月4日的792477手，累计减少26767手。由于甲醇基本面偏乐 观，虽然上周五遭遇宏观利空风险冲击，但是多头尾盘反击明显，空头主力被迫选择撤离。由此导致多 空前20名席位的净空头寸显著回落。数据显示，2101合约净空头寸由8月28日的191624手减少至9月4日 的171451手，净减20173手，降幅达10.53%。 具体来看，在空头前20名席位中，减持的席位有13家，增持的席位有7家。减持方面，东证期货席位和 海通期货席位减持数量居前，分别减少25453手和11253手。同时，申银万国期货席位、银河期货席位、 国泰君安期货席位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke reported strong sales performance in 2023, achieving a total sales amount of 246 billion yuan, ranking among the top three in 26 cities, with 15 cities holding the first position [1] Sales Performance - In 2023, Vanke's sales reached 246 billion yuan, with a sales collection rate of 105.5% [1] - The company launched 14 new projects in 2024, achieving an average sales absorption rate of over 80% and a gross profit margin of approximately 16% [1] Inventory Management - Vanke successfully reduced inventory, with a total resource clearance of 166 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, achieving a clearance ratio of over 60% [1] - The "Existing House Renewal" initiative led to sales of 35.2 billion yuan from existing houses and 55.6 billion yuan from near-existing houses [1] Marketing Innovation - Vanke made significant progress in marketing innovation, with live streaming initiatives resulting in annual subscriptions totaling 6.75 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the reallocation of macro policies is expected to enhance the demand for rebar in August, leading to a potential upward trend in prices [1] - The demand side is supported by accelerated implementation of macro policies and faster issuance of local special bonds, which boosts infrastructure investment and rebar demand [1] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new construction area, reducing the negative impact on rebar demand [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, improved profits for both long and short process steel mills are expected to increase production willingness, leading to a slight recovery in rebar output [1] - However, due to "anti-involution" policies and calls for industry self-discipline, production levels are anticipated to remain stable and operate at low levels [1] - Inventory levels are currently low, with downstream demand in the off-season, but the supply is also at a low level, resulting in a basic balance between supply and demand and a gradual reduction in inventory [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, partially recovering from last week's decline. The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 12.31%. Currently, the divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. From the fundamental perspective, as the inventory pressure at the Ganqimao Port eases, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal continues to rise, while the domestic supply is affected by weather and production restrictions, with limited room for output growth. The inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises has changed from continuous replenishment for a month to destocking. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the upstream inventory depletion rate has decreased. However, as the overall inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly reduced. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains at a high level, supporting the consumption of coke. At present, the spot market is cautious in following up, and the short - term upward momentum of prices has slowed down, with high - level oscillations for digestion [6][33]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Report Summary - From August 4th to 6th, the power consumption load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high for three consecutive days, with the maximum load reaching 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to the extreme value of 1.18 billion kilowatts last year [5]. - This week, the double - coking futures market oscillated upward, with the trading volume of the main coking coal contract increasing significantly. The divergence between long and short sides has intensified, and the market volatility has expanded. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [6]. - The newly revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. As of August 5th, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 58.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The coking coal inventory is lower than that of last year, reducing inventory pressure; there is an expected decrease in coking coal supply; the molten iron output is at a high level, supporting demand [10]. - **Bearish factors**: The downstream replenishment pace of coking coal has slowed down; the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply**: The domestic supply of coking coal has limited room for growth, while the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising. The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, and the daily average output of clean coal decreased by 21,700 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 1.19% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 5,900 tons. As of August 2nd, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port was 927,450 tons [14]. - **Coking coal upstream inventory**: As of the week of August 8th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 26,000 tons, while that of 110 sample coal washing plants increased by 21,000 tons. The port inventory decreased by 47,700 tons. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the overall inventory is lower than that of last year [15]. - **Coking enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 48,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.11 days. The coke inventory decreased by 38,900 tons. The coking coal inventory has changed from continuous replenishment to destocking [18]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of August 8th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 48,700 tons, and the available days increased by 0.12 days. The coke inventory decreased by 74,100 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.26 days. Steel enterprises continue to replenish coking coal slightly but destock coke [22]. - **Coke output**: As of August 8th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke increased by 2,900 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 0.32%, and the daily coke output decreased by 1,700 tons. Overall, the coke output has changed little [24]. - **Molten iron output and coke demand**: As of the week of August 8th, China's coke consumption decreased by 1,800 tons, and the daily average molten iron output decreased by 3,900 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased to 68.4%, making it difficult to force active production cuts. Although the molten iron output has slightly declined, it remains high, supporting coke demand [27]. - **Coke price increase**: As of the week of August 8th, the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, which improved significantly compared to last week. The fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke in Hebei, Shandong and other places starting from 0:00 on August 4th. The implementation by steel enterprises was delayed compared to the price increase proposed by coking enterprises [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The spot price increase has slowed down [30]. Market Outlook - The trading volume of the main coking coal contract increased significantly, and the divergence between long and short sides has intensified. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is rising, while the domestic supply growth is limited. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, but the upstream inventory pressure has been reduced. The molten iron output remains high, and the consumption of coke is supported. The spot market is cautious, and the price upward momentum has slowed down [33]. - The sixth round of coke price increase has started. Some coking enterprises have issued price increase notices, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke starting from August 11th. As the frequency of price increases accelerates, the acceptance of steel enterprises has gradually decreased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises has intensified. In the short term, the coke futures market is significantly affected by coking coal [36].

Core Viewpoint - Microchip reported a strong start to fiscal year 2026 with a sequential revenue increase of 10.8%, reaching approximately $1.0755 billion, although it experienced a year-over-year decline of 13.4% [3][7]. Financial Performance - For Q1 FY26, net sales were $1.0755 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of $154.7 million, translating to diluted earnings per share of $0.27, down from $289.9 million and $0.53 in the same quarter last year [3][4]. - The gross profit margin was 54.3%, while the operating income margin was 20.7% [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The CEO highlighted a significant inventory reduction of $124.4 million, with distribution inventory days decreasing by 4 days to 29 days, and total inventory days down to 214 days, enhancing operational efficiency [8]. - The CFO noted that the company’s business model demonstrated leverage, achieving a non-GAAP gross margin of 76% and an operating margin of 82% for new revenue [8]. Future Guidance - For Q2 FY26, the company expects net sales to be approximately $1.13 billion, representing a sequential growth of about 5.1% [8][11]. - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach due to the changing macro environment while believing in its ability to achieve sustained growth and enhance shareholder value throughout FY26 [8]. Capital Expenditure - Projected capital expenditures for Q2 FY26 are estimated between $35 million and $40 million, with total capital expenditures for FY26 expected to be $100 million or less [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].