Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, dropping below 98 for the first time in three years, is primarily driven by investor concerns over US trade policy uncertainty and expectations of a weakening economy [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell approximately 10% year-to-date, with a notable drop below the 99 mark and reaching a low of 98.12 [1]. - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed an unexpected decline, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are impacting economic outlook, contributing to fears of a recession and diminishing confidence in the dollar [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty could lead to a further decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching 95 if conditions do not improve [5]. Market Reactions - Non-US currencies have shown strength against the dollar, with the Japanese yen surpassing 141 and the euro breaking the 1.15 mark [4]. - The market is reacting to political risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly following Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2]. Future Considerations - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to devalue the dollar and restructure US debt, poses risks to the stability of US financial markets [6][7]. - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the agreement, citing challenges in international cooperation and the potential negative impact on US Treasury stability [7][8].

关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱——美国企业的利润和美国家庭的消费能力。 近期，美元指数不断下跌，先是跌破100大关，4月21日更是跌入98区间，创阶段性新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 在华尔街投行看来，美元此前被高估了10%~20%。这种高估源自于美国的"例外主义"——过去十多年里，美国优异的资产回报率吸引了全球资本流入。然 而，关税将不成比例地打击美国企业的利润和美国家庭的消费能力——而这两者正是支撑美国"例外主义"的双引擎。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱。 美元霸权能否维持？强美元会否瓦解？对此，第一财经日前独家采访美国资管巨头富兰克林邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）首席市场策略师兼研究院主管多弗 （Stephen Dover）。 "我们目前不能确定美国政府是否希望美元保持储备货币地位，当前有很多不同的阵营，目前还不清楚美国总统特朗普的想法。但我们必须要观察事态的发 展。"多弗称，尽管事态可能不会失控，但尾部风险在急剧放大，因此现在并非冒险的时候。 贸易战使美元信仰受损 "海湖庄园协议"这一概念可追溯现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）去年11月发布 ...

Economic Analysis - The U.S. has consistently maintained a trade deficit, averaging $73.79 billion annually from 1973 until China's WTO accession, with manufacturing contributing only 0.58% to annual GDP growth during that period[3] - In 2022, U.S. manufacturing GDP grew by 11.45%, yet the trade deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the first time[3] - During the global economic boom from 2004 to 2007, the U.S. trade deficit expanded by 40.1% as global GDP growth averaged 4.33%[3] Policy Implications - The goals of maintaining the dollar's global currency status while reducing the trade deficit are inherently contradictory, as seen in historical agreements like the Plaza Accord[3] - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. will not resolve the trade deficit issue, indicating a complex economic landscape for policymakers[3] Market Indicators - The rising gold prices may reflect market anticipations regarding the challenges faced by the Trump administration in achieving multiple economic objectives[3] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacting major economies' monetary policies[3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, with a revised forecast range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce, driven by unexpected ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices recently surpassed $3000 per ounce, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on the EU and media attention on the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," leading to a rebound in speculative positions [3][4]. - The recent strong ETF inflows indicate increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, which is expected to support higher gold prices [3][7]. - In extreme risk scenarios, gold prices could exceed $4200 per ounce, with mid-term price risks skewed to the upside [3][23]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs has increased its monthly central bank gold purchase assumption from 50 tons to 70 tons, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons [7][8]. - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases by approximately five times since the freezing of Russian central bank assets, a trend expected to continue over the next three years [10][16]. - The average gold reserve ratio for emerging market central banks is significantly lower than that of developed markets, indicating room for growth [11]. Group 3: China’s Role - If the People's Bank of China raises its gold reserve ratio to 20%, it would require approximately three years at a purchase rate of 40 tons per month [12]. - The recent allowance for Chinese insurance companies to invest 1% of their assets in gold is expected to support gold prices, although significant inflows may not occur until a price correction [20][21]. Group 4: Market Risks and Opportunities - The potential for U.S. tariffs on gold is considered low, as it would not significantly advance U.S. industrial policy goals and could complicate financial markets [22]. - The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement may lead to temporary speculative selling but is unlikely to have a lasting impact on global gold demand [14][24]. - Upward risks to the gold price forecast include increased central bank purchases and a potential shift in ETF demand if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [23].

周末闲聊，想哪到哪啊。 昨天有不少读者看中了文末提到的4%活期利率，但这个不是墙内人民币的理财产品，是离岸美元的理财产品，我在文章里提到的老虎证券、富途证券、 盈透证券，包括之前的利弗莫尔都是境外券商。 你如果有外汇美元的话，4%收益没什么稀罕的，10年期美国国债收益率最新是4.3%，这些券商只是把国债收益给产品化，集成到了活期理财里。 然后就是有读者提出肉身去香港开离岸银行户，开离岸证券户。我可以确认开离岸银行户是肯定没问题的，至于离岸证券户几个中资券商不行，他们会拒 绝大陆过来的kyc，但我听说有好几个外资券商可以，至于是哪几个我唔知啊，你们开银行户的时候顺便问工作人员咯，这种上下游关联业务的多半有推 荐。 还有读者说让我多讲讲香港见闻，觉得蛮有趣的，其实我也只是匆匆的游客，没有深度体验香港本地生活。因为曾经上百年被英国统辖，那里确实和国内 城市很不一样。 普通人去那里感受最显著的差异就是消费贵，我之前提出过一个4倍理论，就是大部分香港物价除以4，就约等于国内。比如香港打工人月薪大都在20000- 30000区间，除以4就是国内的5000-7500，其它衣食住行等消费也差不多是这个比例。 比如我朋友他家每 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses significant global financial market events, including the initiation of the US trade war, Europe's historic shift towards military independence, and China's technological advancements in AI [1][2][5]. Group 1: US Trade War - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, with potential for negotiated exemptions under the USMCA [4]. - Following market volatility, US Commerce Secretary suggested possible compromises on tariffs, indicating a more measured approach than initially expected [4]. Group 2: European Economic and Military Independence - The "London Agreement" marks a pivotal shift in European defense cooperation, aiming for greater independence from US policies, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict [8][13]. - Germany announced a substantial fiscal stimulus plan, including a special fund of up to €500 billion for infrastructure and defense, potentially exceeding €1 trillion in total [9][10]. Group 3: Technological Advancements in China - Alibaba's release of the QwQ-32B model, which has 32 billion parameters, demonstrates China's growing capabilities in AI, achieving performance comparable to models with significantly more parameters at a fraction of the cost [6][5]. Group 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The euro has appreciated over 4% against the dollar following the "London Agreement," while traditional currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars have weakened [10][16]. - Investors are increasingly shifting focus from US assets to European markets, reflecting a growing skepticism towards the US economic outlook [17][16].

当地时间周五， 美股开盘涨跌不一，标普500指数跌0.05%。戴尔科技跌超6%，第四季度营收逊于预期。英伟达跌逾2%。 多个指标显示，美国投 资者的恐慌情绪升至历史高点。 此外，一则有关美国政府将对金融市场进行重大改革的传闻，让市场不确定性再次提升。 恐慌指标不乐观 BespokeInvestmentGroup的分析师在周四的一份报告中指出："市场情绪发生了什么变化？无论从哪个角度来看，恐慌情绪都已渗透到投资者的集体心理。"该 机构列举了多项反映市场恐慌情绪上升的指标，显示出投资者信心的明显恶化。 在经济前景方面，经济不确定性指数（EconomicPolicyUncertainty，EPU）已超过新冠疫情最严重时期的水平。 该指数主要通过分析新闻报道、政府声明、 政策变动频率等因素来反映政策的不确定性。指数由美国学者ScottR. Baker、NicholasBloom和StevenJ.Davis于2016年提出，旨在量化由于政策变化带来的不 确定性对经济活动的影响。EPU指数通常与宏观经济变量如投资、消费、就业等存在显著的负相关关系，表示政策不确定性增大时，企业和消费者往往会表 现出谨慎行为，影响经济增长。 ...