Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption not only as a means to adjust total demand and stimulate growth in the short term but also as a way to generate new, diverse, and high-level consumption demands that can guide high-quality investments [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption Potential - China's consumption rate in 2024 is projected to be only 56.6%, significantly lower than the 70%-80% typical in developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [2]. - The relationship between consumption and economic growth is highlighted, with rising per capita GDP and disposable income correlating with increased consumption rates. China's current per capita GDP is approximately $13,000, suggesting a considerable gap compared to developed nations [2][3]. - Income distribution is a critical factor affecting consumption potential, with data showing that developed countries had an average consumption rate of around 73% when their per capita GDP was similar to China's current level [3]. Group 2: Role of Consumption in Economic Growth - Consumption is expected to play a more significant role in this year's economic growth, especially given the uncertainties in external trade and the diminishing marginal returns of traditional investments [5][6]. - The article argues that consumption and investment are not mutually exclusive but rather mutually reinforcing, with consumption driving production, employment, and investment [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption have shown positive results, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May 2023, and a 6.4% increase in May alone [7]. - To enhance consumer willingness, improving income redistribution is suggested as a key measure, as the current low share of disposable income among residents limits consumption growth [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include lowering tax rates for middle and low-income groups, which could provide a stable cash flow and enhance consumption [8]. Group 4: Service Sector and Foreign Investment - The article discusses the potential for service sector growth through foreign investment, drawing parallels with past manufacturing sector reforms that improved productivity and competitiveness [9][10]. - Encouraging foreign investment in services like education and healthcare could stimulate competition, break monopolies, and enhance service quality, ultimately releasing more consumption potential [9][10]. Group 5: Local Government's Role - Local governments are increasingly important in stimulating consumption, with suggestions to include consumption targets in their performance assessments [12][13]. - Optimizing the value-added tax distribution mechanism is proposed to enhance local governments' incentives to promote consumption, which could lead to more effective consumer policies [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Core Viewpoint - The Weifang Municipal Government is actively implementing measures to boost consumer spending, with a focus on both supply and demand, resulting in a significant increase in retail sales and various promotional activities aimed at enhancing market vitality [3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Initiatives - The Weifang Business Bureau has developed several action plans, including the "Weifang City Consumption Boost Action Plan" and the "Implementation Plan for Promoting High-Quality Service Consumption (2025-2027)," to stimulate consumer spending [4]. - From January to May, the city's retail sales reached 44.52 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, which is 5 percentage points higher than the provincial average and 6.1 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. Group 2: Promotional Activities - Over 200 promotional events have been held this year, including seasonal campaigns and the distribution of consumption vouchers, which have helped maintain market momentum [5]. - The "Spring Tour Qilu Service Consumption Season" successfully integrated cultural and sports events with consumer activities, attracting 236,000 participants and showcasing new consumption vitality [5]. Group 3: Trade-in Programs - The city has expanded its trade-in programs for consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances, with significant participation from businesses. The number of participating enterprises in the home appliance sector increased to 1,350, a 3.5-fold increase from last year [6]. - As of June 24, the trade-in program has facilitated over 881,000 transactions, directly driving consumption by more than 8.14 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Quality Consumption Enhancement - The city has organized various activities to enhance quality consumption, including product procurement fairs and online shopping festivals, which have significantly boosted online retail sales to 3.77 billion yuan [8]. - The introduction of new retail formats and experiences, such as AR and VR projects in shopping centers, is aimed at creating innovative consumption scenarios [9]. Group 5: Future Plans - The Weifang Business System plans to continue researching market trends and developing new consumption scenarios, with a focus on seasonal activities to further enhance consumer spending and support high-quality economic development [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.27」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体走强，除上证指数外均涨超2%。四期指亦集体走高，中小 盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，海内外均有利多消息对市场起到提振，海外伊朗以色列宣布停 火，推动市场风险偏好回暖；国内，央行联合六部门印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的 指导意见》，提振市场对消费及金融板块的热情。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周明显回升。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 2.73 | -0.74 | 3876.6 | | | IH2509 | 1.69 | -1.17 | 2680.0 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, a weakening US dollar index, and the EU expanding military spending, market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply situation of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate and rebound in the near term, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless steel market, steel mills are reducing production, and the price has rebounded from the bottom. However, the oversupply situation persists. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term, and the medium - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 26, 2025, the main nickel contract 2507 opened at 118,950 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a 2.33% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 150,555 lots, and the open interest was 80,909 lots. The contract showed an upward trend with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot prices of nickel increased, and the warehouse receipts and inventory decreased. Factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the issuance of a financial support policy, increasing interest rate cut expectations, a weakening US dollar index, and the EU's military spending expansion contributed to the price rebound [1][2]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, expect an oscillating rebound. The medium - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. For trading strategies, focus on range trading for the single - side, and there are no suggestions for inter - term, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 26, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2508 opened at 12,490 yuan/ton and closed at 12,635 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased significantly. Philippine mine quotes remained firm, but shipping efficiency was affected by rain. Nickel - iron transactions reached a new low, and the shortage of Indonesian nickel ore supply was alleviated by local smelter production cuts. The 300 - series stainless steel cold - rolled products saw obvious inventory reduction. The spot market prices were stable, with some fluctuations in trading volume [3][4]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, expect range - bound trading. The medium - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance for the single - side, and there are no suggestions for inter - term, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy issued by six Chinese government departments aimed at boosting consumption, highlighting its potential to activate domestic demand and improve market confidence, particularly in the service consumption sector [2][3][8]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "Guiding Opinions" released on June 24 outlines 19 specific measures to enhance consumption capacity and financial support for key consumption areas [2]. - The policy aims to address structural contradictions in consumption, particularly the imbalance between goods and service consumption, and to alleviate financing bottlenecks for service-oriented businesses [5][9]. Group 2: Market Impact - Fund managers believe the new policy will significantly boost market confidence, with service consumption expected to outperform physical goods consumption [3][8]. - The policy is seen as a long-term strategy that will provide financial support to the supply side of consumption, which may not yield immediate results but is beneficial for market sentiment [8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The consumption sector is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting long-term investment opportunities, although some "new consumption" stocks may face short-term adjustment pressures due to previous gains [11]. - Specific sectors such as green consumption, cultural tourism, and health care are highlighted as areas encouraged by the policy, which could drive economic transformation [6][9]. Group 4: Financial Support Mechanisms - The policy includes measures like 500 billion yuan in relending and expanded bond financing to support service consumption and new consumption sectors [5][9]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to leverage their expertise and resources to assist relevant enterprises, including providing loan subsidies for new energy vehicles and issuing special bonds for tourism projects [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the consumer sector, particularly through the Consumer Leader ETF (516130), which saw a price increase of 0.81% [1] - The leading stocks in various consumer segments, such as machinery, retail, and consumer services, experienced significant gains, with Stone Technology and Chongqing Department Store both rising over 5% [1] - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and optimize the consumption environment [1][3] Group 2 - There is an increasing focus on consumption from higher authorities, with favorable policies emerging to boost the consumer sector, indicating a potential trend in the market [3] - The Consumer Leader ETF's underlying index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.26, which is at a low point compared to the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Analysts predict that consumption will be a significant driver of economic growth in 2025, with ongoing policy support expected to create new dynamics and scenarios in the consumer market [3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3419.09 points, down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10240.13 points, up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index at 2073.26 points, up 0.44% [1] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with six departments, issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for a coordinated capital market to promote stable development and innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025 to promote electric vehicle adoption in rural areas [2] - Guangdong Province released a plan to stimulate economic growth by promoting the replacement of old products in sectors such as automotive and home appliances [3] Corporate Announcements - Youyan New Materials announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary plans to introduce strategic investors, with a total investment of 300 million yuan from the second phase of the Big Fund [4] - Youngor Group reported the sale of financial assets, including shares in CITIC and CITIC Bank, with a total transaction amount of 4.175 billion yuan [5] - Changchuan Technology plans to raise no more than 3.132 billion yuan through a private placement for semiconductor equipment research and development [6] - Tailin Microelectronics expects a 267% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [7] - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [9] International Context - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.43%, the Dow Jones up 1.19%, and the S&P 500 up 1.11%, marking new closing highs since early March and late February respectively [10] - International oil futures experienced significant declines, with WTI crude oil futures for August down 6.04% and Brent crude oil futures down 6.07% [10] - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [10]

Group 1 - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced the end of a 12-day war initiated by Israel, urging institutions to focus on reconstruction efforts [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is in a position to consider policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data, with potential for early interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new closing high since early March [3][4] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Intel rising over 6% and Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon each gaining over 2% [3][4] - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant rally, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.31%, marking the largest single-day gain since May 13 [3][4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation on Chinese stocks, projecting a target of 4600 for the CSI 300 index, implying about a 10% upside [7] - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program [6] Group 4 - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a record $450.2 billion in Q1, widening from $312 billion in the previous quarter [17] - Guangdong province is accelerating initiatives for trade-in programs for various consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances [18] Group 5 - The price of lemons has skyrocketed by 300% due to extreme weather and increased costs in international trade, leading some beverage shops to temporarily remove lemon drinks from their menus [20] - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans for a nationwide campaign to promote new energy vehicle consumption in 2025 [21] Group 6 - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 11 imported games and 147 domestic games in June, with a total of 55 imported games approved this year [10] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares of Nvidia, with a total of 100,000 shares sold for nearly $14.5 million [11]