Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's performance continues to decline, with a slight increase in total revenue but a significant drop in net profit during the reporting period [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of approximately 326.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.44% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.38% [1] - In Q4, the total revenue was approximately 81.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.18% [1] - The net profit for Q4 was approximately -15.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of about 114% [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was approximately 75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.76% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, marking a return to profitability [1] Dividend and Shareholder Return Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with a total distribution and buyback amount exceeding 1.3 billion yuan [1] - For the years 2026-2028, the company allows for cash or stock dividends, with a principle of distributing no less than 30% of the average distributable profit over the last three years [1] Industry Insights - The price differentials for refined oil, ethylene, and polyester filament remained stable year-on-year, while the propylene and PX price differentials saw significant declines of about 18% and 21%, respectively [2] - The supply-side adjustments are expected to improve industry conditions, with a decrease in the operating rate of independent refineries [2] - As of April 24, the operating rate of independent refineries in Shandong was approximately 48%, indicating a gradual improvement in supply-side conditions [2] Future Outlook - The company is in a strong capital expenditure phase, with ongoing construction projects totaling approximately 50.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 6.2 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The company has several projects in hand, including 1.4 million tons/year ethylene and downstream chemical facilities, which are expected to enhance its market position once operational [2] - The company is positioned to become a leading large-scale chemical platform in China, with strong cyclical resilience anticipated as industry conditions improve [3]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 荣盛石化(002493.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 点评： [Table_OtherReport] ➢ 炼化景气周期偏弱，2024 年公司业绩短期承压。油价端，2024 年国际 油价中高位震荡运行，上半年油价呈现冲高后回落企稳态势；下半年受 全球宏观经济形势转弱、地缘担忧情绪放缓影响，国际油价震荡下行。 2024 年布伦特平均油价为 79.86 美元/桶，较 2023 年中枢下移 2.31 美 元/桶，成本端价格重心有所下移。从行业盈利角度看，根据百川盈孚数 据，2024 年主要炼化产品汽油、柴油、煤油、聚乙烯、聚丙烯、PX、 纯苯单吨理论毛利变化分别为+21、+2、-364、-431、-599、-818、+352 元/吨，化工板块处于周期磨底阶段，整体炼化板块景气偏弱。从公司盈 利结构看，主要子 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 荣盛石化(002493.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y]4 月 24 日晚，荣盛石化发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公 司实现营业收入 3264.75 亿元，同比增长 0.42%；实现归母净利润 7.24 亿 元，同比下降 37.44%；实现扣非后归母净利润为 7.62 亿元，同比下降 7.06%；实现基本每股收益 0.08 元，同比下降-33.33%。其中，第四季度公 司实现营业收入 812.79 亿元，同比下降 5.56%，环比下降 3.18%；实现归 母净利润-1.52 亿元，同比下降 114.49%，环比下降 912.03%；实现扣非后 净利润 0.74 亿元，同比下降 92.21%，环比增长 367.64%。 2025 年 4 月 29 日晚，公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度公司 实现营业收入 749.75 亿元，同比下降 7.54 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and risk resistance by achieving significant performance growth in Q1 2025, despite a challenging international crude oil market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported total operating revenue of 74.975 billion RMB, a slight year-on-year decrease of 7.54% - The total profit reached 1.345 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.91% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million RMB, up 6.53% compared to the same period last year - The non-recurring net profit grew by 30.28%, reaching 618 million RMB [1]. Market Conditions - Historical data indicates that crude oil price fluctuations are critical for refining companies' profitability, with margins improving significantly when oil prices are in the 40-80 USD/barrel range - Currently, oil prices have dropped to the 65 USD/barrel range, benefiting refining companies by improving cost structures and expanding product margins - An increase of 100 RMB per ton in refining profit could potentially add approximately 4 billion RMB to Rongsheng Petrochemical's profits, given its refining capacity of 40 million tons per year [2]. Industry Position - Rongsheng Petrochemical is viewed as a core player for "bottoming out and rebounding" in the market, supported by its full industry chain advantages and the release of high-end new material capacities - The company holds a significant position in the chemical materials market in China and Asia, excelling in polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins - The integrated refining project led by the company has an annual processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil, producing 8.8 million tons of paraxylene (PX) and 4.2 million tons of ethylene [2][3]. Future Outlook - With the stabilization of crude oil prices and a gradual recovery in market demand, Rongsheng Petrochemical is expected to further enhance its influence in the global new materials supply chain - The company aims to align with industry trends such as product high-endization, cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and sustainable development - It plans to deepen its integrated refining advantages and drive industrial upgrades through technological innovation, accelerating its transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent operations [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved significant year-on-year performance improvement, with revenue for 2024 reaching 101.31 billion yuan, a 22.59% increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.202 billion yuan, a 50.8% increase [7] - The polyester filament production and sales have improved year-on-year, although the overall market conditions have shown signs of decline due to increased supply and weak demand [7] - The PTA market is experiencing a recovery, but it remains in a state of bottom oscillation due to excess supply [7] - The profitability of Zhejiang Petrochemical has improved, and it is expected to continue to enhance in 2025 [7] - Future earnings forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to the impact of tariffs and oil price fluctuations, with net profits for 2025 and 2026 revised to 1.987 billion yuan and 3.084 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 82.64 billion yuan in 2023, 101.31 billion yuan in 2024, 103.08 billion yuan in 2025, 108.27 billion yuan in 2026, and 109.98 billion yuan in 2027 [6][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 797 million yuan in 2023 to 1.987 billion yuan in 2025, and further to 4.198 billion yuan by 2027 [6][9] - The company's earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.34 yuan in 2023 to 0.83 yuan in 2025, reaching 1.75 yuan in 2027 [6][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 2.2% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2025, and further to 9.2% in 2027 [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [9][10]. Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, which was above expectations due to reduced losses in the chemical segment and better-than-expected performance in non-oil marketing [1]. - The report highlights that traditional business profitability is under pressure, while non-oil business shows promising growth [1]. - The refining segment's profitability is under pressure due to high crude oil inventory, leading to a significant decline in refining margins [3]. - The marketing segment's profit declined due to weak domestic demand for refined oil products, although non-oil business profits increased [4]. - The chemical segment has reduced losses and is expected to benefit from a market recovery [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 119% [1]. - Q1 crude oil production was 69.5 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, while natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 368.4 billion cubic feet [2]. - The refining segment processed 62.1 million tons of crude oil, down 1.8% year-on-year, with refining margins narrowing to 6.2 USD per barrel, a decrease of 13.9% [3]. Segment Analysis - The marketing segment saw total domestic refined oil sales of 43.2 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year, with retail sales declining by 6.4% [4]. - The chemical segment produced 386, 568, and 260 million tons of ethylene, synthetic resin, and synthetic fiber respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18%, 17%, and 27% [5]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 53.9 billion, 58.8 billion, and 61.6 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 RMB [6]. - The target prices are set at 6.82 RMB and 4.73 HKD for A and H shares respectively, based on a PE ratio of 15.5 and 10.0 for 2025 [6].

科技日报记者 梁乐 通讯员 张治立 近日，科技日报记者在中国石化新疆库车绿氢示范项目（光伏绿氢智慧工厂）的中控室看到，技术 人员正紧盯绿氢智慧控制与调度系统的电子屏幕，密切关注工厂内52个电解槽的运行情况。源源不断的 绿色氢能替代天然气，被输送至炼化企业，实现低碳制造。 该项目位于新疆库车经开区，是我国规模最大的光伏发电直接制绿氢项目。2023年，库车经开区入 选国家首批碳达峰试点园区，成为新疆首个国家碳达峰试点园区。在推动经济高质量发展进程中，库车 经开区正朝着科技创新驱动和绿色集约发展的目标不断奋进，全力打造碳达峰试点园区。 产值首破550亿元大关 库车市化石能源富集，已探明的天然气储量3090.75亿立方米以上、原油储量14.22亿吨以上，占塔 里木盆地探明储量的90%以上。 为了充分发挥能源优势，库车经开区联合行业龙头企业，加速创新链与产业链的深度融合。 在库车经开区企业——中国石化塔河炼化有限责任公司（以下简称"塔河炼化"），各厂房生产的汽 油、柴油、航空煤油等产品，通过铁路专线直销各地。目前，该公司的原油加工能力每年达500万吨。 塔河炼化生产管理部高级主管王兴军介绍，按照中国石油化工集团公司构建 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][10] Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, which is a decrease of 28% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 119% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the traditional business faces profit pressure, while non-oil business shows promising performance. The chemical sector has reduced losses, and the marketing segment's non-oil business has exceeded expectations [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the company's profitability recovery in the refining industry post-2025, supported by its integrated advantages and transformation into new materials [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 oil production was 69.5 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, with an average oil price of 71.5 USD/barrel, down 5.2%. Natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 368.4 billion cubic feet [2] - The refining segment's Q1 operating profit dropped significantly by 44.3 billion RMB to 19.8 billion RMB due to high oil inventory costs, with refining margins narrowing to 6.2 USD/barrel, down 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment's total domestic refined oil sales decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, leading to a profit drop of 39.8 billion RMB to 39.7 billion RMB [4] Chemical Sector - The chemical segment's production of ethylene, synthetic resin, and fiber monomers increased by 18%, 17%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively. The segment's losses were reduced by 4.7 billion RMB year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 53.9 billion RMB, 58.8 billion RMB, and 61.6 billion RMB, respectively, with EPS projected at 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 RMB [6] - The target prices are set at 6.82 RMB for A-shares and 4.73 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a valuation of 15.5x PE for 2025 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly overview of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that oil prices are oscillating at high levels, and filament prices continue to face pressure. It details the price, profit, inventory, and operating rate data of various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week is 2,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 43 yuan/ton (-2%); the foreign key large refining project spread is 953 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19 yuan/ton (+2%) [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: The weekly average prices of POY/FDY/DTY are 6,279/6,493/7,621 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 114/150/118 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are -43/-166/-14 yuan/ton, down 104/128/107 yuan/ton week-on-week. The inventory levels are 28.2/30.4/34.5 days, with week-on-week changes of -1.2/-1.5/+0.1 days. The filament operating rate is 93.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.6 pct. Downstream, the loom operating rate is 55.2%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 pct. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is 11.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.6 days, and the finished product inventory is 24.7 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.5 days [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) declined this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average PX price this week is 744.9 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.0 US dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil is 259.1 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.3 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate is 77.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Price Performance of 6 Private Refining Companies**: The petroleum and petrochemical index on April 25, 2025, showed a 1.3% increase in the past week, a -3.5% decrease in the past month, a -2.8% decrease in the past three months, a -12.1% decrease in the past year, and a -7.8% decrease since the beginning of 2025. Among the companies, Orient Shenghong had a 6.9% increase in the past week, while Rongsheng Petrochemical had a -4.2% decrease in the past month, and Hengli Petrochemical had a 4.9% increase in the past three months [8]. - **Earnings Forecast of 6 Private Refining Companies**: Taking Hengli Petrochemical as an example, with a stock price of 15.5 yuan and a total market value of 109 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023A was 6.905 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 9.303 billion yuan in 2026E. The PE in 2025E is 13.6, and the PB is 1.6 [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 66.5 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.9 US dollars/barrel (+1.4%), and a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%. The average price of WTI crude oil is 63.0 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 US dollars/barrel (+1.1%), and a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [8]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - Analyzes the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, petroleum and petrochemical, and oil prices, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [14][16][21]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - Covers multiple aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG, the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG, the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber, the inventory levels of polyester enterprises, and the operating rates of filament and downstream looms [23][31][37]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Compares the prices and spreads of refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) in different regions including China, the US, Europe, and Singapore, with both yuan/ton and US dollars/barrel units [80][90][95]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, and MMA relative to crude oil [135][136][143].

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：关税冲击使市场担忧需求，炼化产品价格走弱 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 4 月 20 日 本期内容提要： 图 1：国内大炼化项目周度价差（元/吨，美元/桶） 资料来源：万得，信达证券研发中心 图 2：国外大炼化项目周度价差（元/吨，美元/桶） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [ ...