农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月09日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，金属板块多头资金集中调仓，流 动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震 荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁员人数10.8万，为自2009年以 来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空缺录得654.2万人，为2020年 9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济的弱势，市场的降息预期有 所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20 号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比-6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价 15168元/吨，周环比-52/。海外产区进入 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,258 | 2.04% | 4,221 | -0.87% | | 2603 | 71,813 | 5,674 | 44,652 | -5,824 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,561 | 2.20% | 4,525 | -0.79% | PG | 2604 | 36,869 | 4,081 | 72,724 | 3,481 | | 期货市场 | | 260 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report monitors the fundamentals of rubber, including futures market, spot market, and industry news, and indicates that the rubber trend strength is 0, showing a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,080 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume was 229,543 lots, a decrease of 53,790 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 146,030 lots, a decrease of 3,983 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 500 tons to 112,070 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,404 lots to 26,256 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 180 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 980 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 105 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market mostly decreased [2] Industry News - During the 2026 "Spring Festival", the average planned holiday days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were about 9.17 days, 0.96 days less than the previous year. The start time of the holiday was postponed compared to last year, and the resumption time changed little. The average planned holiday days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were about 11.86 days, a slight decrease of 0.43 days. The overall resumption enthusiasm was slightly more positive than the previous year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 08 日 豆粕：震荡，规避春节长假风险 豆一：震荡，规避春节长假风险 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（02.02～02.06），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美元首电话提振市场情绪，美国总统特朗普称 "中方将会增购美国大豆"，该言论提振美豆出口前景、激励美豆价格上涨。本周没有美豆出口大额订单 报告。从周 K 线角度，2 月 6 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 4.75%，美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 3.34%。 上周（02.02～02.06），国内豆粕期价偏弱震荡，豆一期价横盘震荡。豆粕方面，盘面价格比美豆偏 弱，可能因为：巴西丰产担忧、中方扩大采购美豆担忧供应增加、菜系偏弱影响（中加贸易关系）、巴西 升贴水报价下跌抵消部分美豆盘面上涨的影响、市场再度传言抛储等因素。豆一方面，中央一号文件出 台，盘面情绪稳定：一号文件延续前期政策方向，而国内豆一期货价格在前期已经上涨，所以当一号文件 出台时，国内盘面情绪稳定。从周 K 线角度，2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot market is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, trading activities will gradually end, and prices are likely to transition smoothly. After the festival, there will be some restocking demand, but the market may face short - term pressure due to factors such as high inventory and potential imports [1][2] - The peanut futures market will be strong in the short - term following the trend of oils and fats. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Peanut Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of February 5, the average price of national common peanuts was 8,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (0.11%) from January 29. Some producers and grain dealers were not active in selling, resulting in a low supply. Downstream markets and food companies were stocking up before the festival, while the operating rate of oil mills declined and oilseed demand decreased [1] - **Futures Market**: In the week of February 6, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2605) was 7,936 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,918 yuan/ton, compared with 7,906 yuan/ton the previous week [1] 3.2 Peanut Market Outlook - **Before the Spring Festival**: Peanut spot prices will remain stable, with trading gradually coming to a halt as most traders have completed stocking up [2] - **After the Spring Festival**: There will be restocking demand, but the market may face pressure due to factors such as high residual inventory in production areas, short selling time after the festival, and potential imports from Senegal. Attention should be paid to the purchasing strategies of oil mills and the arrival of imported peanuts [2] 3.3 Basis and Spread - The report presents the basis of Henan Baisha peanuts and Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts from 2021 - 2026, as well as the 11 - 1 spread (discontinued) and 3 - 5 spread [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan this week was basically the same as last week [11] 3.5 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oilseed peanut markets was about 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% from last week but an increase of 104.74% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.7 million tons, an increase of 15.11% from last week and 561.32% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.41 million tons, an increase of 1.22% from last week and 211.34% compared with the same period last year [12] 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.85 million tons, a decrease of 28.54% from last week but an increase of 3,561.9% compared with the same period last year [19] - The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, basically stable. The downstream stocking demand improved slightly, but traders were cautious [19] - The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotes. The demand was weak, and the market transaction was light [19] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was 44.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.18 yuan/ton from last week. It increased by 234.97 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year [19] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 46.19%, a decrease of 0.39% from last week but an increase of 45.86% compared with the same period last year [19] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 82,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85% from last week [20] 3.7 Inventory - The report shows the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills from different production seasons and years [23]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6607元/吨，最高价6708元/吨，最终收盘于6691元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.48%。持仓量减少14114手至483821手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报6310-6830元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 截至2月6日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落2.24个百分点至49.84%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下降5.30个百分点至36.74%，塑编订单环比继续下降，略低于去年 同期。2月6日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生 产比例下降至26.5%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端， 伊朗地缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购， 原油价格反弹。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，下游塑编开工率下降，其新增 订单有限，临近春 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周五持仓量增仓 67582 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 723307 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日均 线，60 日均线，最低 3074，最高 3111，收于 3077 元/吨，下跌 20 元/吨，跌幅 0.65%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3220 元/吨，相 比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 供应端：截至 2 月 5 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，公历同比下降 1.61 万吨，产量本周下降较多，且处于近几年相对低 位。临近春节，需求转弱，钢厂季节性减产。后续关注春节后产量复苏情况。 需求端：表需大幅下降（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），截 至 2 月 5 日当周，表需数据 147.64 万吨，周环比减少 28.76 万吨，年同比 减少 37.51 万吨，需求大幅走弱，临近春节假期，冬储基本结束。后续需要 关注春节后需求复苏情况。 库存端：总库存环比上升，同比大增，整体库存 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短线震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 60 均线附近。 成交量较昨日减 47.5 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36791 手；日内最高 1227，最低 1201，收盘 1209，（较昨结算价）跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.82%。 2，现货市场：弱稳震荡。企业装置运行稳定，供应维持高位徘徊。下游需 求表需平平，采购积极性不佳，保持随用随采刚需为主。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 2 月 5 日，国内纯碱产量 77.43 万吨，环比下降 0.88 万吨， 跌幅 1.12%。其中，轻碱产量 36.03 万吨，环比下降 0.17 万吨；重碱产量 41.40 万吨，环比下降 0.71 万吨。综合产能利用率 83.25%，上周 84.19%，环比下降 0.94%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.21%，环比下降 0.78%；联产产能利用率 77.23%， 环比增加 2.58%。16 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 86.47%， ...