二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（12.22～12.26），美豆期价涨跌互现、重心略微上移，期价上涨因为中方采购美豆、期价下跌 因为市场对中方采购仍保持谨慎。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.16%， 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.02%。 上周（12.22～12.26），国内豆粕期价偏强震荡，豆一期价小幅上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强主要是周 四市场消息影响：海关通关问题仍有担忧。豆一方面，盘面同样受到周四市场消息影响。此外，国储提价 收购影响偏多，国储抛储抑制上升动能。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 2.01%，豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 1.08%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（12.22～12.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方采购美豆数量有限，影响中性偏 空。据新闻讯，12 月 22 日中方采购美豆 ...

通关收紧时间延长 豆粕现货延续上涨 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 1、CBOT豆类合约行情 大连玉米期货市场 2025年12月26日，大连玉米期货2603合约高开，盘终收涨，主力合约放量增仓，收阳线。开盘2191元， 最新2222元，涨33元，最高2225元，最低2189元，结算2208元，成交729771，持仓1014722。 CBOT玉米期货市场 温馨提示：因节假日，CBOT交易所休市。 温馨提示：因节假日，CBOT交易所休市。 2、大连豆粕期货市场 大连豆粕期货市场延续上涨，主力合约2605价格高开收涨，收阳线，放量减仓。开盘价2728元，收盘价 2760元，涨32元，最高价2765元，最低价2719元，结算2739元，成交量962713，持仓量2093118。 3、豆粕现货市场 今日国内豆粕现货价格延续上涨，上涨20-40元/吨。南美大豆丰产预期下，市场对美国大豆出口保持谨 慎态势，关注后续出口节奏变化。出口销售报告显示，截止12月11日当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口 销售净增239.62万吨，其中对中国大陆出口销售净增138.3万吨。当周美国大豆出口装船72.13万吨，其 中对中国大陆出口装船 ...

| 『业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | --- | | 十海辉 Z0019938 2025年12月26日 | | 田温 | | 12月25日 12月24日 涨跌 张跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8350 8350 0 0.00% | | Y2605 8044 7992 52 0.65% 期价 | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+500 20 : | | 28264 28264 仓单 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月24日 孫跌 涨跌幅 | | 广东24度 8490 8470 20 0.24% 现价 | | 期价 P2605 8514 8486 28 0.33% | | 墓差 P2605 -24 -16 -8 -50.00% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 +650 05 + 120 530 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 8975.7 8944.3 31.4 0.35% | | -0.74% | | 0.00% | | 采村溫 | | 12月25日 12月24日 旅跌 旅跌幅 | | 23.64% | | - | | 价差 | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 26 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：持续磨底 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -55 | 320 | 810 | 1565 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22305 | ー | ー | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2957 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 343 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 229349 | -65183 | 40905 | -30113 | 93748 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 290474 | -6450 | -3691 | -66073 | 72435 ...

Report Date - The report was released on December 26, 2025 [1] Industry Focus - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2] - There is a news about the trading volume limit on polysilicon futures contracts starting from December 29, 2025 [2][4] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Summary by Category Futures Market Data - Si2605: The closing price is 8,835 yuan/ton, with a change of -25 yuan compared to T - 1, 190 yuan compared to T - 5, and -125 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 268,435 lots, with a change of -53,715 lots compared to T - 1, -80,042 lots compared to T - 5, and 20,247 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 216,554 lots, with a change of -1,636 lots compared to T - 1, 8,774 lots compared to T - 5, and -47,365 lots compared to T - 22 [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 60,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,460 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 124,231 lots, with a change of -73,209 lots compared to T - 1 and -274,588 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 132,126 lots, with a change of 5,042 lots compared to T - 1 and -7,734 lots compared to T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot - to - futures basis varies depending on the benchmark, such as +415 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +15 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), -135 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [2] - Polysilicon: The spot - to - futures basis against N - type re - feed is -8760 yuan/ton, with changes of -2,460 yuan compared to T - 1, -1,460 yuan compared to T - 5, and -5,525 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feed is 52,350 yuan/ton [2] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and other related products are also provided [2] Profits - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2491.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -4829 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, with changes compared to different time points [2] - Other industries: The profits of DMC enterprises, regenerative aluminum enterprises are also presented [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 19.6 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 75.1 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 4.6 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 30.3 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided [2] Macro and Industry News - Starting from December 29, 2025, non - futures company members or customers have a daily opening volume limit of 50 lots on each of the polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612. Hedging and market - making transactions are exempted, and accounts with real control relationships are managed as one account [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - **Neutral Trends**: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - **Negative Trends**: None 2. Core Views - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - **Rubber**: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Urea**: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - **Short Fiber**: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25]. - **Market Information**: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [32]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [47]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [57]. - **Industry News**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [70]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [77]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [98]. - **Macro News**: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [103]. - **Industry News**: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [108]. - **News**: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on the lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and inventory data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan (-0.96%) daily but up 17,360 yuan (16.35%) weekly. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, down 24,183 lots (-2.55%) daily and 89,093 lots (-8.79%) weekly, and the open interest was 607,187 lots, down 40,179 lots (-6.21%) daily and 65,524 lots (-9.74%) weekly [3]. - The closing price of the weighted - index contract was 123,776 yuan/ton, down 926 yuan (-0.74%) daily but up 17,683 yuan (16.67%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,532,681 lots, up 190,899 lots (14.23%) daily and 221,433 lots (16.89%) weekly, and the open interest was 1,072,674 lots, down 2,555 lots (-0.24%) daily but up 6,443 lots (0.60%) weekly [3]. - For different contract spreads, e.g., LC2601 - LC2605 was - 1,980 yuan/ton, with daily and weekly changes of - 20 yuan (1.02%) and - 260 yuan (15.12%) respectively [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 17,101 lots, unchanged daily but up 1,465 lots (9.37%) weekly [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore market, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (1.71%) daily; lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) was 6,405 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.87%) daily; and lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) was 10,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.86%) daily [18]. - In the lithium salt market, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.44%) daily; battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.35%) daily; and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 88,430 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (4.00%) daily [18]. - Regarding price spreads, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged daily but up 50 yuan (1.92%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 10,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.93%) daily and 950 yuan (-8.21%) weekly [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2601 contract varied, e.g., Shengxin Lithium Energy was - 1,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Tianqi Lithium was - 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [30]. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses had no change in receipts, while Yichun Yinli decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) showed certain trends over time, as presented in the graph [34]. - The production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods also had corresponding trends over the period from December 24 to October 25 [34]. - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, were also presented in graphical form, showing their trends over time [36][38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

成文日期：20251223 研究品种:苹果 报告周期: 日报 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251223），期货品种苹果 AP2605 合约震荡上行，当 日收至 9230 点，较昨日上涨 0.49%，全日成交 93740 手，持仓 144841 手，较上一交易日减少 3937 手。 数据来源:国金期货博易大师 1.2 品种价格 当日苹果期货各合约全部上涨，成交量 99112 手，品种持仓量 168460 手，较上一交易日减少 4885 手。 图: 苹果期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图：苹果 AP2605 分时图 RHHH BEEF | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 昌高价 | 曽低价 | 今收盘 | 今结算 | 涨跌 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | 成交额(万 | 交割结算 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

免责声明 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 粕类产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月25日 | | | | 朱迪 | Z0015979 | | 豆相 | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏豆粕 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | M2605 | 2728 | 2745 | -17 | -0.62% | | 墓差 | M2605 | 372 | રેરિ | 17 | 4.79% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏现货墓差 | m2605 +290 | m2605+290 | ス | n | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西2月船期 | 82 | 73 | 9 | 12.3% | | 仓車 | | 24830 | 24830 | 0 | 0.0% | | 菜粕 | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 | 江苏采相 | 2420 | 2410 | 10 | 0.41 ...